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  • About
  • The Global ETD Search service is a free service for researchers to find electronic theses and dissertations. This service is provided by the Networked Digital Library of Theses and Dissertations.
    Our metadata is collected from universities around the world. If you manage a university/consortium/country archive and want to be added, details can be found on the NDLTD website.
1

Assessment of the significance of the autocorrelation for the series trend analysis historical National Operator Flow of the Electrical System (ONS) in Brazil / AvaliaÃÃo da importÃncia da autocorrelaÃÃo para a anÃlise de tendÃncias das sÃries histÃricas de vazÃo do Operador Nacional do Sistema ElÃtrico (ONS) no Brasil

Priscilla Paiva de Medeiros 29 May 2015 (has links)
Brazil has majority share of hydroelectric power in its generation matrix electricity, depending on the rainy seasons and settlement of multiannual reservoirs to ensure safety in the generation and distribution system power national power. In this context, time series analysis can provide information useful for planning and more efficient operation of the reservoirs, identifying possible trends in the flow of data or precipitation of the integrated stations hydroelectric plants. The trend analysis in hydrological series is held traditionally using non-parametric tests such as the Mann-Kendall test, and You can treat both monotonic trends or abrupt as in various ways. Such tests, although not require information about the distribution of data, require data to be independent, which rarely occurs in series hydrologic variables. Thus, new tests have arisen in the trend analysis, with objective of taking the autocorrelation of the series under consideration. This paper proposes trend analysis of historical streamflow series of major basins contribute to the National Interconnected System (SIN), obtained from data National Electric System Operator (ONS). The analysis will aim check importance of considering the autocorrelation of the data to detect trends, analyzing the first series without considering the autocorrelation - the nonparametric method Traditional Mann-Kendall with Sen estimator - and then applying filters Pre-Whitening and Trend-Free Pre-Whitening. The tests were implemented through the MatLab program to analyze the average natural flow monthly provided by the ONS. The spatial distribution of trends found It was presented through maps created the Free Software QGIS. The results found for the ONS posts corroborated the theory that the autocorrelation influences the detection of trends. Keywords: autocorrelation, trend analysis, hydropower se / O Brasil possui participaÃÃo majoritÃria de energia hidroelÃtrica em sua matriz de geraÃÃo de energia elÃtrica, dependendo das estaÃÃes chuvosas e da regularizaÃÃo plurianual dos reservatÃrios para garantir a seguranÃa na geraÃÃo e distribuiÃÃo de energia do sistema elÃtrico nacional. Nesse contexto, a anÃlise de sÃries temporais pode oferecer informaÃÃes Ãteis para o planejamento e a operaÃÃo mais eficientes dos reservatÃrios, identificando possÃveis tendÃncias nos dados de vazÃo ou de precipitaÃÃo dos postos integrados Ãs usinas hidrelÃtricas. A anÃlise de tendÃncias em sÃries hidrolÃgicas à realizada tradicionalmente atravÃs de testes nÃo-paramÃtricos, como o teste de Mann-Kendall, e pode tratar tanto de tendÃncias monotÃnicas, quanto de abruptas ou de formas diversas. Esses testes, apesar de nÃo requererem informaÃÃes sobre a distribuiÃÃo dos dados, requerem que os dados sejam independentes, o que raramente ocorre nas sÃries de variÃveis hidrolÃgicas. Assim, novos testes surgiram na anÃlise de tendÃncias, com o objetivo de levar a autocorrelaÃÃo das sÃries em consideraÃÃo. O presente trabalho propÃe a anÃlise de tendÃncias das sÃries histÃricas de vazÃes das principais bacias que contribuem para o Sistema Interligado Nacional (SIN), obtidas a partir de dados do Operador Nacional do Sistema ElÃtrico (ONS). A anÃlise terà por objetivo verificar a importÃncia da consideraÃÃo da autocorrelaÃÃo dos dados na detecÃÃo de tendÃncias, analisando as sÃries primeiramente sem considerar a autocorrelaÃÃo - pelo mÃtodo nÃoparamÃtrico tradicional de Mann-Kendall com estimador de Sen - e, em seguida, aplicando os filtros do Pre-Whitening e do Trend-Free Pre-Whitening. Os testes foram implementados atravÃs do programa MatLab, para anÃlise das vazÃes naturais mÃdias mensais disponibilizadas pelo ONS. A distribuiÃÃo espacial das tendÃncias encontradas foi apresentada atravÃs de mapas criados no software livre QGIS. Os resultados encontrados para os postos do ONS corroboraram a teoria de que a autocorrelaÃÃo influencia na detecÃÃo de tendÃncias.

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