Early 1990s to late 2000s freshening (ΔS ≈ -0.001–0.002) and warming (Δθ ≈ 0.02°C–0.035°C) of bottom waters was detected in the southern Pacific Ocean, and Ross Sea source waters progressively freshened during the past four decades. This study investigates potential freshwater anomaly sources and quantifies their effect. Glacial melt water inputs to the GCT increased by 1.3 km^3 per decade (1976– 2007), more rapidly so after 2000 (6.8 km^3 per decade), freshening local Shelf Water by 0.0004 per decade. Lighter basal melt inputs to the LAT started in 1994 and also picked up after 2000 to 14.9 km^3 per decade, lowering the local Antarctic Surface Water salinity by -0.017 per decade. Upstream in the Amundsen Sea surface water freshened by -0.03 per decade (1994–2007) mostly (50%) from larger melt water inputs from the Pine Island (17.7 km^3 per decade) and Dotson (14.8 km^3 per decade) glaciers. Two decades of steady (1978-2000) strengthening of sea ice productivity (200 km^3 per decade) within the Ross Sea Polynya suddenly reversed to weakening (-98.6 km^3 per decade) and resulted in Shelf Water freshening (-0.02 per decade) thereafter. To fully account for the observed variability in Ross Sea waters, the progressive (1992- 2011) adjustment of the density field and induced advective contributions are estimated based on a simplified three-layer stratification. Eastern (western) inflow (outflow) of light surface (dense shelf) water increased by 28% (15%) to 1.11 Sv (1.01 Sv) by 2011; whereas a sluggish intermediate inflow (0.02 Sv) of Modified Circumpolar Deep Water turned into outflow after 2007, thus contributing 0.09 Sv by 2011 to the ventilation of deep waters farther offshore. The estimated evolution of overturning and advective salt fluxes in the Ross Sea yield overall freshening of water masses similar to those derived from observations. Volumetric mean salinities declined at -0.07 per decade for Antarctic Surface Water, -0.05 per decade for Modified Circumpolar Water, and -0.03 per decade for Shelf Water. Outflow intensification of Shelf Water mixtures is also consistent with bottom water property changes (freshening and warming) measured farther downstream in the southern Pacific Ocean.

O oceano desempenha papel fundamental na configuração e manutenção do clima da Terra, sendo considerado um dos componentes principais do sistema climático.Diversos estudo foram conduzidos para avaliar as mudanças nos processos climáticos e como o clima, em contrapartida, é afetado por tais mudanças. O presente trabalho visa investigar o impacto das mudanças climáticas na formação de massas de água do oceano austral. Foram analisados resultados de simulação numérica para os séculos XX e XXI pelo modelo CCSM3 para os cenários 20c3m e SRESA1B do IPCC. Através da técnica de separação de mássas de água Análise Otimizada de Parâmetros Múltiplos (OMP) foram identificadas 3 massas de água no Mar de Ross: Água Profunda Circumpolar (CDW); Água da Plataforma de Gelo (ISW); Água de Plataforma de Baixa Salinidade (LSSW). A ISW, precursora da Água de Fundo Antártica (AABW), apresenta maior variação espacial tornando-se mais rasa no século XX e assumindo camadas mais profundas no século XXI. A variação da ISW está relacionada à variação do Modo Anular Sul (SAM) e à variação do gelo marinho. / It has been known for a long time that the ocean plays the most important role on Earth\'s heat budget, what turns it into a major component of the global climate system. Therefore, many studies have been made to assess whether features of climate processes are changing and how may climate itself be affected by these changes. This work aims to look at the impact of climate changes on water masses formation in the Southern Ocean. Results from the 20th century and SRESA1b CCSM3/NCAR simulation (1870 to 2100) were analyzed using the Optimum Multiparameter Analysis (OMP) to separate water masses. Three water masses were identified in the Ross Sea: Circumpolar Deep Water (CDW); Ice Shelf Water (ISW); Low Salinity Shelf Water (LSSW). Simulation results have shown that the ISW gets shallower during the 20th century and then, during the 21stcentury, it gets deeper and occupies the deepest layer by 2100 while it flows towards higher latitudes as AABW. Much closely to what has been shown by observational studies, water masses formation in the Southern Ocean is intrinsically linked to atmospheric vaiability modes, such as the southern annular mode--SAM, and to sea ice variation.

O oceano desempenha papel fundamental na configuração e manutenção do clima da Terra, sendo considerado um dos componentes principais do sistema climático.Diversos estudo foram conduzidos para avaliar as mudanças nos processos climáticos e como o clima, em contrapartida, é afetado por tais mudanças. O presente trabalho visa investigar o impacto das mudanças climáticas na formação de massas de água do oceano austral. Foram analisados resultados de simulação numérica para os séculos XX e XXI pelo modelo CCSM3 para os cenários 20c3m e SRESA1B do IPCC. Através da técnica de separação de mássas de água Análise Otimizada de Parâmetros Múltiplos (OMP) foram identificadas 3 massas de água no Mar de Ross: Água Profunda Circumpolar (CDW); Água da Plataforma de Gelo (ISW); Água de Plataforma de Baixa Salinidade (LSSW). A ISW, precursora da Água de Fundo Antártica (AABW), apresenta maior variação espacial tornando-se mais rasa no século XX e assumindo camadas mais profundas no século XXI. A variação da ISW está relacionada à variação do Modo Anular Sul (SAM) e à variação do gelo marinho. / It has been known for a long time that the ocean plays the most important role on Earth\'s heat budget, what turns it into a major component of the global climate system. Therefore, many studies have been made to assess whether features of climate processes are changing and how may climate itself be affected by these changes. This work aims to look at the impact of climate changes on water masses formation in the Southern Ocean. Results from the 20th century and SRESA1b CCSM3/NCAR simulation (1870 to 2100) were analyzed using the Optimum Multiparameter Analysis (OMP) to separate water masses. Three water masses were identified in the Ross Sea: Circumpolar Deep Water (CDW); Ice Shelf Water (ISW); Low Salinity Shelf Water (LSSW). Simulation results have shown that the ISW gets shallower during the 20th century and then, during the 21stcentury, it gets deeper and occupies the deepest layer by 2100 while it flows towards higher latitudes as AABW. Much closely to what has been shown by observational studies, water masses formation in the Southern Ocean is intrinsically linked to atmospheric vaiability modes, such as the southern annular mode--SAM, and to sea ice variation.