About 20 percent of the U.S. National Highway System is under construction during the peak summer roadway season. Fifty percent of all highway congestion is attributed to nonrecurring conditions and work zones are estimated to account for nearly 24 percent of nonrecurring delay. Work zones account for two percent of roadway crashes and more than 1,000 fatalities per year. Motorists across the United States have increasingly voiced their displeasure with work zones and the associated delay. This has posed a challenge to transportation officials and contractors as they are faced with finding ways to reduce work zone delay. A key to addressing this challenge to minimize motorist delay during construction and maintenance operations is to recognize these impacts well in advance. In order to meet this challenge, work zone strategy evaluations are necessary to understand the type, severity, and extent of impacts associated with various strategies. One major tool used to aid in conducting these evaluations is computer simulation. There are many simulation packages in existence, some of which are designed specifically for work zone analysis. These packages include, for example, QUEWZ, QuickZone, and CA4PRS. This research focuses on the evaluation of these three simulation packages along work zones located on four interstate highway segments on I-91 and I-95 in New England. The evaluation consists of comparing simulation results to field observations in the work zones. The queue lengths estimated by QuickZone and QUEWZ are compared to queue lengths observed in the work zone. Maximum rehabilitation production rates estimated by CA4PRS will be compared to actual production rates recorded in the work zone. This evaluation will allow for a determination to be made as to whether or not these simulation packages produce accurate estimates. In addition to accuracy, the evaluation also sheds light on the user-friendliness of each simulation model as well as other parameters such as data requirements and analysis time. Major results of this evaluation include: • QUEWZ and QuickZone are user-friendly work zone simulation models. • The estimations of queue length provided by QuickZone and QUEWZ for the four sites considered in this research were found to be comparable to the field observations. • CA4PRS is a user-friendly simulation model. However, the data required to perform an analysis is not as always easy to obtain. In addition, these simulated results of maximum rehabilitation production rates are not easily compared to observed data which are not typically available. This research should be helpful to guide state and local officials in New England in the selection of simulation models to assess work zone strategies for roadway reconstruction and rehabilitation projects in New England.

We are recently witnessing an increase in large-scale micro/individual/- granular level behavioural data. Such data has been proven to have the capacity to aid the development of more accurate simulations that will ef- fectively predict the behaviours of complex systems. Despite this increase, the literature has failed to produce a structured modelling approach that will effectively take advantage of such granular data, in modelling com- plex systems that involve social phenomenons (i.e. social complex sys- tems). In this thesis, we intend to bridge this gap by answering the question of how novel structural frameworks, that systematically guides the use of micro-level behaviour and attribute data, directly extracted from the ba- sic entities within a social complex system can be created. These frame- works should involve the systematic processes of using such data to di- rectly model agent attributes, and to create agent behaviour rules, that will directly represent the unique micro entities from which the data was ex- tracted. The objective of the thesis is to define generic frameworks, that would create agent based micro simulations that would directly reflect the target complex system, so that alternative scenarios, that cannot be inves- tigated in the real system, and social policies that need to be investigated before being applied on the social system can be explored. In answering this question, we take advantage of the pros of other model- ing techniques such as micro simulation and agent based techniques in cre- ating models that have a micro-macro link, such that the micro behaviour that causes the macro emergence at the simulation’s global level can be easily investigated. which is a huge advantage in policy testing. We also utilized machine learning in the creation of behavioural rules.This created agent behaviours that were empirically defined. Therefore, this thesis also answers the question of how such structural framework will empirically create agent behaviour rules through machine learning algorithms. In this thesis we proposed two novel frameworks for the creation of more accurate simulations. The concepts within these frameworks were proved using case studies, in which these case studies where from different so- cial complex systems, so as to prove the generic nature of the proposed frameworks. In concluding of this thesis, it was obvious that the questions posed in the first chapter had been answered. The generic frameworks had been created, which bridged the existing gap in the creation of accurate mod- els from the presently available granular attribute and behavioral data, al- lowing the simulations created from these models accurately reflect their target social complex systems from which the data was extracted from.

This thesis presents the development of a multifaceted conceptual framework for discrete-event simulation and its implementation within an integrated visual simulation support environment (VSSE). The intertwined research objectives regarding the conceptual framework and the companion VSSE are presented. A literature review of related work is conducted. The core of the thesis describes the conceptual framework (called the DOMINO), the VSSE and each of the tools from its supporting toolset, and the VSMSL (Visual Simulation Model Specification Language). Three example model applications (bus route, traffic intersection, and branch operations examples) demonstrate the use of the VSSE and the underlying DOMINO. The thesis is evaluated using the research objectives as assessment criteria. The DOMINO is truly multifaceted. Both graphical and object-oriented, the DOMINO provides design and implementation guidance over the simulation model life cycle. The DOMINO is not restricted to specific problem domains but is independent of application domain. Several different perspectives for developing model component logic are available to modelers under the VSMSL. The VSSE demonstrates significant advances in integrated, automated support for model development which include graphical facilities for definition and specification and effective verification techniques. The VSSE underscores the contributions of the research effort and has helped to identify potential areas for future research. / Ph. D.

Microscopic simulation traffic models are widely used by transportation researchers and practitioners to evaluate and plan for transportation facilities. The intent of these models is to estimate the second-by-second vehicle movements and interactions on such facilities. Due to constraints related to time, budget, and availability of data, these models are typically designed in such a way where the microscopic output is viewed on the macroscopic level. Inherently, this can leave uncertainty to how the model estimates the individual interactions between vehicles on the microscopic level. This thesis utilizes three microsimulation models, INTEGRATION, VISSIM, and CORSIM, to investigate the lane changing behavior as vehicles approach a freeway diverge area. The count of lane changes, lane use distribution, and visual inspection of the simulated lane changing behavior was compared to video data collected at two freeway diverge areas on U.S. 460 in the vicinity of Blacksburg, Virginia during both off-peak and peak periods. It was observed that all three models generally overestimated the number of lane changes near the diverge areas compared to field observations. By modifying the models' lane changing logic, the models were able to closely match field observations in one of the four scenarios. It was found that microsimulation models accurately estimated the lane use distribution. In addition, the INTEGRATION lane use distribution results were found to be more consistent when compared to observed lane use distribution than either VISSIM or CORSIM. / Master of Science

Condition monitoring (CM) of electrical equipment is an important field in electrical engineering and a considerable amount of research is dedicated to this field. Power cables are one of the most important parts of any electrical network and the variety of techniques available for CM of electrical cables is therefore no surprise. Electrical cables are exposed to operational and environmental stressors which will cause degradation of the insulation material. The degradation will continue to the point where the cable fails. Blackouts caused by failing cables will have an effect on the safety, efficiency and production of an electrical network. It is therefore important to constantly monitor the condition of electrical cables, in order to prevent the premature failure of cables. The research presented in this dissertation sets out to investigate CM techniques for power cables and to design and implement a basic cable CM technique based on the principles of partial discharge (PD) measurements. A comprehensive literature study introduces the fundamental concepts regarding the CM of power cables. The basic construction of electrical cables, as well as the variety of different types is researched in order to lay a foundation for the research that follow. CM techniques for electrical equipment are investigated, with the emphasis on techniques used on cables. Conducted research led to the decision to focus on CM by means of PD measurements. PD as a phenomenon is investigated to be able to better understand the origins and effects of discharge activity. From there the focus shifts to the available techniques for monitoring the condition of electrical cables by means of PD measurements. The research conducted in the literature study chapter forms the basis from which the rest of the study is conducted. Simulation models were used to study PD characteristics. The models are derived from engineering and mathematical principles and are based on the well-known three-capacitor model of PD. The simulations were performed in order to study the effects of discharge activity. The designed simulation models allows for a variety of PD characteristics to be studied. The simulations were performed in the MATLAB® Simulink® environment. The research conducted in the dissertation was used to design an elementary CM technique which can be used to detect the presence of PD within electrical cables. The designed CM technique was used for the practical measurement of PD data. MATLAB® programs were designed in order to analyse the PD data in both the time- and frequency-domain. The analysis of the measured data revealed PD characteristics of the test specimen used for the measurements. The designed CM is used for the detection of PD activity within electrical cables and in combination with other techniques, may be used for complete CM of electrical cables. The experimental setup which was used to take practical PD measurements adds another dimension to the work presented in this dissertation. / MIng (Electrical and Electronic Engineering), North-West University, Potchefstroom Campus, 2015

Condition monitoring (CM) of electrical equipment is an important field in electrical engineering and a considerable amount of research is dedicated to this field. Power cables are one of the most important parts of any electrical network and the variety of techniques available for CM of electrical cables is therefore no surprise. Electrical cables are exposed to operational and environmental stressors which will cause degradation of the insulation material. The degradation will continue to the point where the cable fails. Blackouts caused by failing cables will have an effect on the safety, efficiency and production of an electrical network. It is therefore important to constantly monitor the condition of electrical cables, in order to prevent the premature failure of cables. The research presented in this dissertation sets out to investigate CM techniques for power cables and to design and implement a basic cable CM technique based on the principles of partial discharge (PD) measurements. A comprehensive literature study introduces the fundamental concepts regarding the CM of power cables. The basic construction of electrical cables, as well as the variety of different types is researched in order to lay a foundation for the research that follow. CM techniques for electrical equipment are investigated, with the emphasis on techniques used on cables. Conducted research led to the decision to focus on CM by means of PD measurements. PD as a phenomenon is investigated to be able to better understand the origins and effects of discharge activity. From there the focus shifts to the available techniques for monitoring the condition of electrical cables by means of PD measurements. The research conducted in the literature study chapter forms the basis from which the rest of the study is conducted. Simulation models were used to study PD characteristics. The models are derived from engineering and mathematical principles and are based on the well-known three-capacitor model of PD. The simulations were performed in order to study the effects of discharge activity. The designed simulation models allows for a variety of PD characteristics to be studied. The simulations were performed in the MATLAB® Simulink® environment. The research conducted in the dissertation was used to design an elementary CM technique which can be used to detect the presence of PD within electrical cables. The designed CM technique was used for the practical measurement of PD data. MATLAB® programs were designed in order to analyse the PD data in both the time- and frequency-domain. The analysis of the measured data revealed PD characteristics of the test specimen used for the measurements. The designed CM is used for the detection of PD activity within electrical cables and in combination with other techniques, may be used for complete CM of electrical cables. The experimental setup which was used to take practical PD measurements adds another dimension to the work presented in this dissertation. / MIng (Electrical and Electronic Engineering), North-West University, Potchefstroom Campus, 2015

Urban watershed management poses a very challenging problem due to the varioussources of pollution and there is a need to develop optimal management models that canfacilitate the process of identifying optimal water quality management strategies. Ascreening level, comprehensive, and integrated computational methodology is developedfor the management of point and non-point sources of pollution in urban watersheds. Themethodology is based on linking macro-level water quality simulation models withefficient nonlinear constrained optimization methods for urban watershed management.The use of macro-level simulation models in lieu of the traditional and complexdeductive simulation models is investigated in the optimal management framework forurban watersheds. Two different types of macro-level simulation models are investigatedfor application to watershed pollution problems namely explicit inductive models andsimplified deductive models. Three different types of inductive modeling techniques areused to develop macro-level simulation models ranging from simple regression methodsto more complex and nonlinear methods such as artificial neural networks and geneticfunctions. A new genetic algorithm (GA) based technique of inductive modelconstruction called Fixed Functional Set Genetic Algorithm (FFSGA) is developed andused in the development of macro-level simulation models. A novel simplified deductivemodel approach is developed for modeling the response of dissolved oxygen in urbanstreams impaired by point and non-point sources of pollution. The utility of this inverseloading model in an optimal management framework for urban watersheds isinvestigated.In the context of the optimization methods, the research investigated the use of parallelmethods of optimization for use in the optimal management formulation. These includedan evolutionary computing method called genetic optimization and a modified version ofthe direct search method of optimization called the Shuffled Box Complex method ofconstrained optimization. The resulting optimal management model obtained by linkingmacro-level simulation models with efficient optimization models is capable ofidentifying optimal management strategies for an urban watershed to satisfy waterquality and economic related objectives. Finally, the optimal management model isapplied to a real world urban watershed to evaluate management strategies for waterquality management leading to the selection of near-optimal strategies.

Simulation models are used to analyse company processes. The purpose is to create a model in simulation software that will represent the behaviour of the company. Options to improve the current situation are investigated by observation of the studied system and subsequent experimenting with the model. This work deals with the situation in the company, which focuses on lease and service of working platforms. New headquarters is being built to provide better services and changes in offer of leased working platforms are being considered. Model of the company is created in software SIMUL8. Next step is to perform simulation experiment and summarize the results. Input values are adjusted according to these results, which leads to a more favorable solution. The aim of this work is to optimize the working capacity and improve the structure of offer of leased working platforms.

O objetivo desta pesquisa foi recalibrar um modelo de simulação de rodovias de pista simples a fim de seja possível usá-lo no estudo de estradas do Estado de São Paulo. O modelo escolhido para recalibração é o TRARR (TRAffic on Rural Roads) versão 4.0, desenvolvido na Austrália pelo ARRB Transport Research Ltd. A recalibração do modelo consistiu em alterar parâmetros referentes ao desempenho (relação potência/massa) e características (massa, comprimento) dos veículos pesados e um parâmetro relativo ao comportamento dos veículos quando viajando em pelotões, de tal modo que os resultados da simulação ficassem compatíveis com os observados em campo. As medidas de desempenho escolhidas para a recalibração foram: a porcentagem de veículos trafegando em pelotões, a velocidade média dos veículos e a taxa de ultrapassagens. Os dados para a recalibração do modelo foram coletados num trecho de 2,8 km de extensão, na rodovia SP 255, entre as cidades paulistas de Araraquara e Ribeirão Preto. No processo de recalibração, as medidas de desempenho observadas no campo foram comparadas com as produzidas pelas versões recalibrada e original do simulador. Ao final da recalibração, pôde-se concluir que as duas versões do modelo são capazes de simular adequadamente o trecho estudado, sendo que o modelo recalibrado produz resultados ligeiramente melhores que os da versão original. O modelo recalibrado foi validado simulando-se um trecho de 10 km de extensão da SP 255 e comparando-se os valores medidos no trecho para as medidas de desempenho escolhidas com os valores produzidos pela versão recalibrada do simulador. Os resultados dessa comparação indicam que o modelo pode ser considerado capaz de simular adequadamente a operação de rodovias de pista simples no Estado de São Paulo. Os resultados do estudo também sugerem que a precisão pode ser melhorada com um ajuste fino de alguns dos parâmetros não modificados durante a recalibração. / The objective of this research is to recalibrate a two-lane highway simulation model to allow its employment within the context of the São Paulo state highways, Brazil. The model chosen for this recalibration is TRARR (TRAffic on Rural Roads) version 4.0, originally developed a in Australia by ARRB Transport Research Ltd. The procedure used for the model recalibration consisted in modifying input parameters related to heavy vehicle dimensions and performance characteristics (power/mass ratio, weight and length) as well as to the behavior of vehicles in platoons, in such a way that the model outputs are compatible with real traffic behavior. Three measures of performance were chosen for recalibration of the model: percent of jouney time spent following, average speed and overtaking rate. Data for model recalibration were collected at a 2.8 km rural section of SP 225, a highway which connects the cities of Ribeirão Preto and Araraquara in the state of São Paulo (Brazil). The recalibration procedure was based on comparisons of the measures of performance observed on the real highway with those produced by the simulator\'s recalibrated and original versions. At the end of the recalibration process, both the recalibrated and the original models were considered capable of reproducing the traffic behavior on a two-lane highway similar to the ones in the state of São Paulo. Furthermore, it was concluded that the recalibrated model is capable of producing results slightly better than the original one. The recalibrated model was submitted to a validation procedure in which a 10 km section of SP 255 was simulated and the measures of perfomance obtained with the model were compared to field observations. The results of the validation procedure indicate that recalibrated version of TRARR is capable of simulating traffic operations on rural two-lane highways in the state of São Paulo. The results of the research also suggest that the model results may be improved with fine-tuning of some of the parameters that were not modified during the recalibration procedure.

A modelagem matemática da hidrologia de bacias hidrográficas é largamente utilizada em estudos de diversos tipos de problemas encontrados na engenharia hidráulica e de recursos hídricos. Nestes últimos 150 anos, muitos pesquisadores realizaram observações e experimentos sobre a natureza do ciclo hidrológico para que pudessem entender e equacionar seu comportamento. Diversos modelos diferentes surgiram baseando-se em equacionamentos físicos e empíricos, sendo que muitos destes modelos clássicos são utilizados até hoje. Para se ter uma visão mais abrangente do tema, uma revisão do estado da arte é apresentada, com uma perspectiva histórica destes modelos e seus criadores, assim como uma classificação fundamentada em suas características. Também são examinados alguns dos sistemas computacionais para modelagem hidrológica de bacias hidrográficas mais utilizados atualmente. São discutidas as hipóteses de uma simplificação do ciclo hidrológico para eventos intensos utilizados em projetos. Cada componente do ciclo hidrológico simplificado é modelado utilizando um dos diferentes modelos hidrológicos propostos, com graus de complexidade distintos. Para cada um destes modelos é realizada uma análise de sensibilidades dos seus parâmetros. Baseado nos avanços tecnológicos mais recentes na ciência da computação foi desenvolvido, em paralelo a esta pesquisa, uma ferramenta computacional que compila todos os conceitos aqui apresentados e tem distribuição acadêmica livre. / The mathematical modeling of the watershed hydrology is widely used in studies of several problems related to hydraulic and water resources engineering. On these last 150 years, many researchers accomplished observations and experiments on the nature of the hydrologic cycle in order to understand and equates its behavior. Several different models appeared basing on physical and empiric equating, and many of these classic models are being used until today. To get a more comprehensive view on the theme, a state of the art revision is presented, with an historical perspective about these models and its creators, such as a classification based on its characteristics are presented. Also some computational systems of hydrologic modeling of watershed are also examined more used now. The hypotheses of a simplification of the hydrologic cycle are discussed for intense events used in projects. Each component of the simplified hydrologic cycle is modeled using one of the different hydrologic models proposed, with distinct grades of complexity. For each one of these models a sensibility analysis of their parameter is performed. Based on the more recent technological progresses in the computational science was developed, parallel to this research, a computational tool that compiles all the concepts here presented and has free academic distribution.