The San Andreas fault forms the right lateral transform boundary between the North American and Pacific tectonic plates. At various locations along the San Andreas fault the geometry of the fault surface is much more complex than a straight, vertical, plane. The San Bernardino Mountain segment of the San Andreas fault, in the San Gorgonio Pass region has one of the most complex active fault geometries in southern California due to a left-stepping restraining bend in the San Andreas fault. The evolution of the actively faulting pass has created an intricate network of active and formerly active, dipping and vertical, three-dimensionally irregular fault surfaces. The purpose of this research is to gain a better understanding of the mechanics of the present day active fault geometry and the evolution in the San Gorgonio pass region, through numerical modeling. We use the three-dimensional Boundary Element Method modeling code Poly3D to simulate different fault configurations. We see that fault geometries that include geologically observed and inferred fault dips match geologic data more accurately than simplified, vertical faults in the San Gorgonio Pass region of the San Andreas fault. The evolution of the San Andreas Fault in the San Gorgonio Pass region over the past million years may follow the principle of work minimization in the Earth’s crust up until the present day configuration.

abstract: There is a need to understand spatio-temporal variation of slip in active fault zones, both for the advancement of physics-based earthquake simulation and for improved probabilistic seismic hazard assessments. One challenge in the study of seismic hazards is producing a viable earthquake rupture forecast—a model that specifies the expected frequency and magnitude of events for a fault system. Time-independent earthquake forecasts can produce a mismatch among observed earthquake recurrence intervals, slip-per-event estimates, and implied slip rates. In this thesis, I developed an approach to refine several key geologic inputs to rupture forecasts by focusing on the San Andreas Fault in the Carrizo Plain, California. I use topographic forms, sub-surface excavations, and high-precision geochronology to understand the generation and preservation of slip markers at several spatial and temporal scales—from offset in a single earthquake to offset accumulated over thousands of years. This work results in a comparison of slip rate estimates in the Carrizo Plain for the last ~15 kyr that reduces ambiguity and enriches rupture forecast parameters. I analyzed a catalog of slip measurements and surveyed earth scientists with varying amounts of experience to validate high-resolution topography as a supplement to field-based active fault studies. The investigation revealed that (for both field and remote studies) epistemic uncertainties associated with measuring offset landforms can present greater limitations than the aleatoric limitations of the measurement process itself. I pursued the age and origin of small-scale fault-offset fluvial features at Van Matre Ranch, where topographic depressions were previously interpreted as single-event tectonic offsets. I provide new estimates of slip in the most recent earthquake, refine the centennial-scale fault slip rate, and formulate a new understanding of the formation of small-scale fault-offset fluvial channels from small catchments (<7,000 m2). At Phelan Creeks, I confirm the constancy of strain release for the ~15,000 years in the Carrizo Plain by reconstructing a multistage offset landform evolutionary history. I update and explicate a simplified model to interpret the geomorphic response of stream channels to strike-slip faulting. Lastly, I re-excavate and re-interpret paleoseismic catalogs along an intra-continental strike-slip fault (Altyn Tagh, China) to assess consistency of earthquake recurrence. / Dissertation/Thesis / Doctoral Dissertation Geological Sciences 2016

京都大学 / 0048 / 新制・課程博士 / 博士(理学) / 甲第22113号 / 理博第4540号 / 新制||理||1652(附属図書館) / 京都大学大学院理学研究科地球惑星科学専攻 / (主査)教授 福田 洋一, 教授 岩田 知孝, 准教授 深畑 幸俊 / 学位規則第4条第1項該当 / Doctor of Science / Kyoto University / DFAM

京都大学 / 新制・課程博士 / 博士(理学) / 甲第24171号 / 理博第4862号 / 新制||理||1695(附属図書館) / 京都大学大学院理学研究科地球惑星科学専攻 / (主査)准教授 西村 卓也, 教授 宮﨑 真一, 准教授 深畑 幸俊 / 学位規則第4条第1項該当 / Doctor of Science / Kyoto University / DGAM

The primary objective of this study is to evaluate the seismic hazard in the Eastern Marmara Region using improved seismic source models and enhanced ground motion prediction models by probabilistic approach. Geometry of the fault zones (length, width, dip angle, segmentation points etc.) is determined by the help of available fault maps and traced source lines on the satellite images. State of the art rupture model proposed by USGS Working Group in 2002 is applied to the source system. Composite reoccurrence model is used for all seismic sources in the region to represent the characteristic behavior of North Anatolian Fault. New and improved global ground motion models (NGA models) are used to model the ground motion variability for this study. Previous studies, in general, used regional models or older ground motion prediction models which were updated by their developers during the NGA project. New NGA models were improved in terms of additional prediction parameters (such as depth of the source, basin effects, site dependent standard deviations, etc.), statistical approach, and very well constrained global database. The use of NGA models reduced the epistemic uncertainty in the total hazard incorporated by regional or older models using smaller datasets. The results of the study is presented in terms of hazard curves, deaggregation of the hazard and uniform hazard spectrum for six main locations in the region (Adapazari, Duzce, Golcuk, Izmit, Iznik, and Sapanca City Centers) to provide basis for seismic design of special structures in the area. Hazard maps of the region for rock site conditions at the accepted levels of risk by Turkish Earthquake Code (TEC-2007) are provided to allow the user perform site-specific hazard assessment for local site conditions and develop site-specific design spectrum. Comparison of TEC-2007 design spectrum with the uniform hazard spectrum developed for selected locations is also presented for future reference.

Understanding spatial and temporal variations in strain accumulation and release along plate boundaries is a fundamental problem in tectonics. Short-term and long-term slip rates are expected to be equal if the regional stress field remains unchanged over time, yet discrepancies between modern geodetic (decadal time scale) slip rates and long-term geologic (10^3 to 10^6 years) slip rates have been observed on parts of the Pacific-North American plate boundary system. Contemporary geodetic slip rates are observed to be ~2 times greater than late Pleistocene geologic slip rates across the southern Walker Lane. I use a combination of GPS geodesy, detailed field geologic mapping, high-resolution LiDAR geodetic imaging, and terrestrial cosmogenic nuclide geochronology to investigate the observed discrepancy between long- and short-term slip rates. I find that the present day slip rate derived from GPS geodesy across the Walker Lane at ~37.5°N is 10.6 ± 0.5 mm/yr. GPS data suggest that much of the observed discrepancy occurs west of the White Mountains fault zone. New dextral slip rates on the White Mountains fault zone of 1.1 ± 0.1 mm/yr since 755 ka, 1.9 +0.5/-0.4 mm/yr since 75-115 ka, 1.9 +0.5/-0.4 mm/yr since 38.4 ± 9.0 ka, and 1.8 +2.8/-0.7 mm/yr since 6.2 ± 3.8 ka are significantly faster than previous estimates and suggest that slip rates there have remained constant since the middle Pleistocene. On the Lone Mountain fault I calculate slip rates of 0.8 ± 0.1 mm/yr since 14.6 ± 1.0 ka and 0.7 ± 0.1 mm/yr since 8.0 ± 0.5 ka, which suggest that extension in the Silver Peak-Lone Mountain extensional complex has increased dramatically since the late Pleistocene.

This dissertation focuses on the active tectonics of Afghanistan|slip-rate estimation of the Chaman fault and assessing seismic hazard in the Kabul basin. Afghanistan is a tectonically complex zone developed as a result of the collision between the Eurasian plate and the Indian plate to the southeast and the Arabian plate to the south. For seismic hazard mitigation, there is no large-scale active fault map in Afghanistan. I, therefore, mapped active and presumed active faults mainly based on interpretation of 1-arcsecond SRTM anaglyph images, and calculate the slip rate of the Chaman fautl based on 10Be TCN dating. / 博士(理学) / Doctor of Philosophy in Science / 同志社大学 / Doshisha University