Graduation date: 1977

This study investigates general equilibrium effects of an alternative social security policy in Indonesia. The study aims to analyse some financial issues of the proposed policy using a dynamic CGE model. The focus is investigating possible tax scenarios to finance the proposed policy and their impacts on the economy. The simulation results suggest that the consumption tax base should be used as the main financing method. This is because based on various simulations the selected consumption taxes have less negative impacts on the economy than the selected income taxes. Those selected consumption taxes more equitably distribute tax burden and improve income inequality in the long run. However, the increasing price because of this policy selection should also be considered seriously. The simulations also include the study of the demographic transition in Indonesia. A view that is common in the literature is that the rapid increase of labor force in the next three decades could raise the proportion of skilled workers in the labor force and enhance the economic growth. Instead the simulations suggest contrary results. When we repeat the tax/transfer simulations with the demographic transition, real GDP per capita and consumption per capita fall further below the baseline projections. Further simulations are conducted to investigate possible policy actions to mitigate the effects of this demographic transition. This study also covers possible allocation decision trade-offs surrounding the proposed social security policy. That is, the trade-offs between universal social pension insurance and universal social health insurance, and between universal tax-financed social security programs and other important development programs. Given the limitation of our study, that all stakeholders have agreed to develop a universal tax-financed social security program, we conclude that universal tax-financed social health insurance should be given more priority than universal tax-financed social pension insurance. The study concludes with some remarks regarding important areas for future research.

In the last decade or so, China has begun to reform its health care system nationwide, due to pressures like an ageing population and increasing demand on health services. In the late 1990s, the Chinese government established the medical insurance scheme for urban employees and retirees. Then, in 2003, a new rural co-operative medical insurance scheme was established for rural areas in China. Most recently, in late 2007, a medical insurance program was introduced in 79 pilot cities, aiming to cover all urban residents who are not in the labour market and with all urban residents becoming beneficiaries by 2010. Given China's considerable size and diversity, both geographically and demographically, the reform of the medical care system faces many challenges. It is important to analyse and evaluate the impact of the reform on individuals' health care benefits and on their financial burden due to medical expenses. This research investigates the sustainability of the urban medical insurance system, involving both urban employed individuals and non-working residents. The key aims focus on three aspects. First, it assesses the distributional impacts of medical insurance policies and predicts medical expenses for urban employees and retirees. Second, it estimates the potential urban resident population entering the medical insurance scheme and predicts the medical costs. Third, it estimates and evaluates the contribution of the differing levels of the Chinese government to the medical insurance scheme. With co-operation from the Bureau of Labour and Social Security of Kunming (capital city of Yunnan Province, China), this thesis creates two static microsimulation models for predicting and evaluating the medical insurance policies in China's urban areas. The model for urban employees and retirees investigates the balances of the social pool fund and personal savings accounts, and the medical expenses shared by different kinds of payment modes. The model for non-working urban residents predicts the distributional impacts on families, estimates the medical expenses and evaluates the insurance capacity of the social pool fund. Three kinds of data are used in the research. The first is the individual level data of medical care records of the urban employees and retirees in Kunming. This administrative data helps to create the microsimulation model for urban employees and retirees for the period of 2006-2010. The second type of data involves the 0.1 per cent sample of the National Population Census in 2000 and the results of the 2005 Population Survey. These data provide the demographic information on urban residents and updated population structures. The third data type provides information on health service use of urban residents, which mainly comes from the second and the third National Health Services Surveys of 1998 and 2003.

Zugl.: @Bremen, Universiẗat, Diss., 2007. / Literaturverz. S. 335 - 342.

Thesis (M.S.)--University of Wisconsin--Madison, 1970. / eContent provider-neutral record in process. Description based on print version record. Includes bibliographical references.

Inaug.-diss.--Göttingen. / Lebenslauf. "Literatur-verzeichnis": p. v-viii.

Thesis (Ph. D.)--University of Pittsburgh, 1997. / Includes bibliographical references (leaves 198-215).

Inaug.-Diss.--Heidelsberg. / Lebenslauf. "Benutzte Literatur": p. 66-68.

Thesis (Ph. D.)--University of Wisconsin, 1965. / Typescript. Vita. Abstracted in Dissertation abstracts, v. 25 (1965) no. 10, p. 5610 eContent provider-neutral record in process. Description based on print version record. Includes bibliography.

Thesis (Ph.D.)--University of Delaware, 2006. / Principal faculty advisor: Jeffrey Miller, Dept. of Economics. Includes bibliographical references.