Zugl.: Duisburg, Essen, Univ., Diss., 2009

Universiẗat, Diss., 2001--Dortmund.

When people interact with each other, they not only listen to what the other says, they react to facial expressions, gaze direction, and head movement. Human-computer interaction would be enhanced in a friendly and non-intrusive way if computers could understand and respond to users’ body language in the same way. This thesis aims to investigate new methods for human computer interaction by combining information from the body language of the head to recognize the emotional and cognitive states. We concentrated on the integration of facial expression, eye gaze and head movement using soft computing techniques. The whole procedure is done in two-stage. The first stage focuses on the extraction of explicit information from the modalities of facial expression, head movement, and eye gaze. In the second stage, all these information are fused by soft computing techniques to infer the implicit emotional states. In this thesis, the frequency of head movement (high frequency movement or low frequency movement) is taken into consideration as well as head nods and head shakes. A very high frequency head movement may show much more arousal and active property than the low frequency head movement which differs on the emotion dimensional space. The head movement frequency is acquired by analyzing the tracking results of the coordinates from the detected nostril points. Eye gaze also plays an important role in emotion detection. An eye gaze detector was proposed to analyze whether the subject's gaze direction was direct or averted. We proposed a geometrical relationship of human organs between nostrils and two pupils to achieve this task. Four parameters are defined according to the changes in angles and the changes in the proportion of length of the four feature points to distinguish avert gaze from direct gaze. The sum of these parameters is considered as an evaluation parameter that can be analyzed to quantify gaze level. The multimodal fusion is done by hybridizing the decision level fusion and the soft computing techniques for classification. This could avoid the disadvantages of the decision level fusion technique, while retaining its advantages of adaptation and flexibility. We introduced fuzzification strategies which can successfully quantify the extracted parameters of each modality into a fuzzified value between 0 and 1. These fuzzified values are the inputs for the fuzzy inference systems which map the fuzzy values into emotional states.

Several studies indicate that the data-driven models have proven to be potentially useful tools in hydrological modeling. Nevertheless, it is a common perception among researchers and practitioners that the usefulness of the system theoretic models is limited to forecast applications, and they cannot be used as a tool for scientific investigations. Also, the system-theoretic models are believed to be less reliable as they characterize the hydrological processes by learning the input-output patterns embedded in the dataset and not based on strong physical understanding of the system. It is imperative that the above concerns needs to be addressed before the data-driven models can gain wider acceptability by researchers and practitioners.<p>In this research different methods and tools that can be adopted to promote transparency in the data-driven models are probed with the objective of extending the usefulness of data-driven models beyond forecast applications as a tools for scientific investigations, by providing additional insights into the underlying input-output patterns based on which the data-driven models arrive at a decision. In this regard, the utility of self-organizing networks (competitive learning and self-organizing maps) in learning the patterns in the input space is evaluated by developing a novel neural network model called the spiking modular neural networks (SMNNs). The performance of the SMNNs is evaluated based on its ability to characterize streamflows and actual evapotranspiration process. Also the utility of self-organizing algorithms, namely genetic programming (GP), is evaluated with regards to its ability to promote transparency in data-driven models. The robustness of the GP to evolve its own model structure with relevant parameters is illustrated by applying GP to characterize the actual-evapotranspiration process. The results from this research indicate that self-organization in learning, both in terms of self-organizing networks and self-organizing algorithms, could be adopted to promote transparency in data-driven models.<p>In pursuit of improving the reliability of the data-driven models, different methods for incorporating uncertainty estimates as part of the data-driven model building exercise is evaluated in this research. The local-scale models are shown to be more reliable than the global-scale models in characterizing the saturated hydraulic conductivity of soils. In addition, in this research, the importance of model structure uncertainty in geophysical modeling is emphasized by developing a framework to account for the model structure uncertainty in geophysical modeling. The contribution of the model structure uncertainty to the predictive uncertainty of the model is shown to be larger than the uncertainty associated with the model parameters. Also it has been demonstrated that increasing the model complexity may lead to a better fit of the function, but at the cost of an increasing level of uncertainty. It is recommended that the effect of model structure uncertainty should be considered for developing reliable hydrological models.

Several studies indicate that the data-driven models have proven to be potentially useful tools in hydrological modeling. Nevertheless, it is a common perception among researchers and practitioners that the usefulness of the system theoretic models is limited to forecast applications, and they cannot be used as a tool for scientific investigations. Also, the system-theoretic models are believed to be less reliable as they characterize the hydrological processes by learning the input-output patterns embedded in the dataset and not based on strong physical understanding of the system. It is imperative that the above concerns needs to be addressed before the data-driven models can gain wider acceptability by researchers and practitioners.<p>In this research different methods and tools that can be adopted to promote transparency in the data-driven models are probed with the objective of extending the usefulness of data-driven models beyond forecast applications as a tools for scientific investigations, by providing additional insights into the underlying input-output patterns based on which the data-driven models arrive at a decision. In this regard, the utility of self-organizing networks (competitive learning and self-organizing maps) in learning the patterns in the input space is evaluated by developing a novel neural network model called the spiking modular neural networks (SMNNs). The performance of the SMNNs is evaluated based on its ability to characterize streamflows and actual evapotranspiration process. Also the utility of self-organizing algorithms, namely genetic programming (GP), is evaluated with regards to its ability to promote transparency in data-driven models. The robustness of the GP to evolve its own model structure with relevant parameters is illustrated by applying GP to characterize the actual-evapotranspiration process. The results from this research indicate that self-organization in learning, both in terms of self-organizing networks and self-organizing algorithms, could be adopted to promote transparency in data-driven models.<p>In pursuit of improving the reliability of the data-driven models, different methods for incorporating uncertainty estimates as part of the data-driven model building exercise is evaluated in this research. The local-scale models are shown to be more reliable than the global-scale models in characterizing the saturated hydraulic conductivity of soils. In addition, in this research, the importance of model structure uncertainty in geophysical modeling is emphasized by developing a framework to account for the model structure uncertainty in geophysical modeling. The contribution of the model structure uncertainty to the predictive uncertainty of the model is shown to be larger than the uncertainty associated with the model parameters. Also it has been demonstrated that increasing the model complexity may lead to a better fit of the function, but at the cost of an increasing level of uncertainty. It is recommended that the effect of model structure uncertainty should be considered for developing reliable hydrological models.

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It has been shown by Roger Jang in his paper titled "Adaptive-network-based fuzzy inference systems" that the Adaptive Network based Fuzzy Inference System can model nonlinear functions, identify nonlinear components in a control system, and predict a chaotic time series. The system use hybrid-learning procedure which employs the back-propagation-type gradient descent algorithm and the least squares estimator to estimate parameters of the model. However the learning procedure has several shortcomings due to the fact that * There is a harmful and unforeseeable influence of the size of the partial derivative on the weight step in the back-propagation-type gradient descent algorithm. *In some cases the matrices in the least square estimator can be ill-conditioned. *Several estimators are known which dominate, or outperform, the least square estimator. Therefore this thesis develops a new system that overcomes the above problems, which is called the "Faster Adaptive Network Fuzzy Inference System" (FANFIS). The new system in this thesis is shown to significantly out perform the existing method in predicting a chaotic time series , modelling a three-input nonlinear function and identifying dynamical systems. We also use FANFIS to predict five major stock closing prices in New Zealand namely Air New Zealand "A" Ltd., Brierley Investments Ltd., Carter Holt Harvey Ltd., Lion Nathan Ltd. and Telecom Corporation of New Zealand Ltd. The result shows that the new system out performed other competing models and by using simple trading strategy, profitable forecasting is possible.

Thesis (Ph.D.)--Michigan State University. Dept. of Civil and Environmental Engineering, 2008. / Title from PDF t.p. (viewed on July 21, 2009) Includes bibliographical references (p. 218-225). Also issued in print.

Zugl.: Saarbrücken, Universiẗat, Diss., 2009.

Universiẗat, Diss., 2002--Dortmund.