Comúnmente los estudios geotécnicos de análisis de estabilidad de taludes se realizan mediante métodos determinísticos, en los cuales se obtiene como resultado un factor de seguridad (FS) de la estructura analizada. Sin embargo, estos métodos no cuantifican la incertidumbre en las variables de entrada (parámetros de resistencia del suelo), en el análisis y tampoco muestran los detalles de las variables más influyentes en la estabilidad del talud. Es por ello los métodos probabilísticos permiten superar estos problemas. Esta investigación tiene como objetivo principal realizar el análisis de estabilidad de taludes mediante el método probabilístico Primer Orden Segundo Momento (FOSM) dos recomendaciones de aplicabilidad, que ofrecen los autores Sandroni & Sayao (1992) y Mostyn y Li (1993). Se analizó un caso común y muy importantes porque fueron claves en la realización de métodos probabilísticos en la ingeniería geotécnica. El caso, es una de las carreteras más importantes de Brasil, el cual sufrió deslizamiento 2 años después de su construcción. Se realizó el análisis probabilístico dando como resultado que los parámetros de confiabilidad de la estructura eran muy bajos y la probabilidad de rotura muy alta. Se plantea la propuesta de solución de estabilidad con una probabilidad de rotura mínima. La investigación se realizó con datos realizados en Brasil, por la cantidad de datos que requieren los estudios probabilísticos. Los tipos de suelos que se estudiaron fueron cohesivos, los cuales se pueden encontrar también en la selva peruana. Sin embargo, no se está tomando en cuenta proyectos nacionales por lo que no cuentan con la información necesaria para la aplicación de esta metodología. / Geotechnical studies on slope stability analyzes are performed using deterministic methods, from which are obtained as a result of a safety factor (FS) of the structure analyzed. However, these methods do not quantify the uncertainty in the input variables (parameters of soil resistance), analysis and do not show the details of the most influential variables in the stability of the slope. Therefore, probabilistic methods can overcome these problems. This research has as main objective the analysis of slope stability by probabilistic first order second moment method (FOSM) by two applicability recommendation that we provide the authors Sandroni & Sayao (1992) and Mostyn and Li (1993); and a comparison with the results obtained. Resulting in the second method is more accurate by being number of analysis performed. The case is one of the most important roads in Brazil which suffered a landslide two years after its construction. probabilistic analysis result that reliability parameters of the structure were very low and very high probability of rupture was performed. It was decided to make the solution stability with a minimum breaking probability. The research was carried out with studies of Brazil, for the amount of data that is required when probabilistic studies are conducted. Soil types found were generally cohesive, which can be found in the Peruvian jungle. However, there is no necessary data projects with this amount of data is required. / Tesis

The concept of reinforcement was developed in late 20th century and since then till the recent past there are many works carried out on the effect of fibers in imparting strength and stiffness to the soil. Experimental investigations on fiber reinforced soils showed an increase in shear strength and reduction in post peak loss of strength due to the reinforcement. Analytical/mechanistic models are developed to predict the stress-strain response of fiber reinforced soil (under discrete framework, energy dissipation methods, force equilibrium methods etc). Numerical investigations are also carried out, and it was observed that the presence of random reinforcing material in soils make the stress concentration diffuse more and restrict the shear band formation. Soil properties vary from point to point at micro level and influence stress mobilization. Hence, there is a need to carry out probabilistic analysis to capture the effects of uncertainties and variability in soil and their influence on stress-strain evolution. In the present thesis an attempt has been made to propose a mechanistic model that predicts the stress-strain response of fiber reinforced soil and also considers the effect of anisotropy of fibers. A stochastic/probabilistic model is developed that predicts the stochastic stress-strain response of fiber reinforced soil. In addition, probabilistic analysis is carried out to observe the effect of number of fibers across the shear plane in imparting shear resistance to soil. The mechanistic model and stochastic models are validated with reference to the experimental results of consolidated undrained (CU) triaxial tests on coir fiber reinforced red soil for different fiber contents. The entire thesis is divided into six chapters. Chapter-wise description is given below. Chapter one presents a general introduction to the works carried out on fiber reinforced soils and also the investigations carried out on probabilistic methodologies that takes into account the soil variability. Thus, the chapter gives an outline of the models developed under mechanistic and probabilistic frameworks in the thesis. The objectives and organization of the thesis are also presented. Chapter two presents a detailed review of literature on the role of fibers in fiber reinforced soil. The details of experimental investigations carried out and models developed are explained briefly. Also, the literature pertaining to the role of variability in soil on its engineering behavior is presented. Based on the literature presented in this chapter, concluding remarks are made. Chapter three presents the details of a new mechanistic model developed based on modified Cam-clay model. This model considers the effect of fiber content and also the effect of anisotropy due to fibers. The predictions from the mechanistic model are compared with the experimental results. Under anisotropic condition, as angles of inclination of fiber vary from 0° to 90° with the bedding plane, it is observed that the strength increment in the reinforced soil is not as significant as that observed in isotropic case. Horizontal fibers turn out to be most effective since they are subjected to maximum extension thereby inducing tensile resistance which in turn contributes for strength increase in fiber reinforced soil. Chapter four presents a new approach to predict the stochastic stress-strain response of soil. Non-homogeneous Markov chain (multi-level homogeneous Markov chain) modeling is used in the prediction of stochastic response of soil. The statistical variations in the basic variables are taken into account by considering the response quantities (viz. stress at a given strain or settlement at a given load level) as random. A bi-level Homogeneous Markov chain predicts the stochastic stress-strain response efficiently. The predicted results are in good agreement with the experimental results. An illustration of this model is done to predict the stochastic load-settlement response of cohesionless soil. A simple tri-level homogeneous Markov chain model is proposed to predict settlements of soil at a given load for an isolated square footing subjected to axial compression. A parametric study on the effect of correlation coefficient on the prediction of settlements is performed. Chapter five presents the results of probabilistic analysis carried out to determine the effect of number of fibers across the shear plane in improving the shear strength of soil. It is observed that as the percentage of fibers in the specimen increases, the probability of failure of specimen under the same stress condition reduces and thus the reliability of the fiber reinforced soil system increases. In Chapter six, a summary of the important conclusions from the various studies reported in the dissertation are presented.

Saltwater Forest is a Dacrydium cupressinum-dominated lowland forest covering 9000 ha in south Westland, South Island, New Zealand. Four thousand hectares is managed for sustainable production of indigenous timber. The aim of this study was to provide an integrated analysis of soils, soil-landform relationships, and soil-vegetation relationships at broad and detailed scales. The broad scale understandings provide a framework in which existing or future studies can be placed and the detailed studies elucidate sources of soil and forest variability. Glacial landforms dominate. They include late Pleistocene lateral, terminal and ablation moraines, and outwash aggradation and degradation terraces. Deposits and landforms from six glacial advances have been recognised ranging from latest Last (Otira) Glaciation to Penultimate (Waimea) Glaciation. The absolute ages of landforms were established by analysis of the thickness and soil stratigraphy of loess coverbeds, augmented with radiocarbon dating and phytolith and pollen analysis. In the prevailing high rainfall of Westland soil formation is rapid. The rate of loess accretion in Saltwater Forest (ca. 30 mm ka⁻¹) has been low enough that soil formation and loess accretion took place contemporaneously. Soils formed in this manner are known as upbuilding soils. The significant difference between upbuilding pedogenesis and pedogenesis in a topdown sense into an existing sediment body is that each subsoil increment of an upbuilding soil has experienced processes of all horizons above. In Saltwater Forest subsoils of upbuilding soils are strongly altered because they have experienced the extremely acid environment of the soil surface at some earlier time. Some soil chronosequence studies in Westland have included upbuilding soils formed in loess as the older members of the sequence. Rates and types of processes inferred from these soils should be reviewed because upbuilding is a different pedogenic pathway to topdown pedogenesis. Landform age and morphology were used as a primary stratification for a study of the soil pattern and nature of soil variability in the 4000 ha production area of Saltwater Forest. The age of landforms (> 14 ka) and rapid soil formation mean that soils are uniformly strongly weathered and leached. Soils include Humic Organic Soils, Perch-gley Podzols, Acid Gley Soils, Allophanic Brown Soils, and Orthic or Pan Podzols. The major influence on the nature of soils is site hydrology which is determined by macroscale features of landforms (slope, relief, drainage density), mesoscale effects related to position on landforms, and microscale influences determined by microtopography and individual tree effects. Much of the soil variability arises at microscales so that it is not possible to map areas of uniform soils at practical map scales. The distribution of soil variability across spatial scales, in relation to the intensity of forest management, dictates that it is most appropriate to map soil complexes with boundaries coinciding with landforms. Disturbance of canopy trees is an important agent in forest dynamics. The frequency of forest disturbance in the production area of Saltwater Forest varies in a systematic way among landforms in accord with changes in abundance of different soils. The frequency of forest turnover is highest on landforms with the greatest abundance of extremely poorly-drained Organic Soils. As the abundance of better-drained soils increases the frequency of forest turnover declines. Changes in turnover frequency are reflected in the mean size and density of canopy trees (Dacrydium cupressinum) among landforms. Terrace and ablation moraine landforms with the greatest abundance of extremely poorly-drained soils have on average the smallest trees growing most densely. The steep lateral moraines, characterised by well drained soils, have fewer, larger trees. The changes manifested at the landform scale are an integration of processes operating over much shorter range as a result of short-range soil variability. The systematic changes in forest structure and turnover frequency among landforms and soils have important implications for sustainable forest management.

Saltwater Forest is a Dacrydium cupressinum-dominated lowland forest covering 9000 ha in south Westland, South Island, New Zealand. Four thousand hectares is managed for sustainable production of indigenous timber. The aim of this study was to provide an integrated analysis of soils, soil-landform relationships, and soil-vegetation relationships at broad and detailed scales. The broad scale understandings provide a framework in which existing or future studies can be placed and the detailed studies elucidate sources of soil and forest variability. Glacial landforms dominate. They include late Pleistocene lateral, terminal and ablation moraines, and outwash aggradation and degradation terraces. Deposits and landforms from six glacial advances have been recognised ranging from latest Last (Otira) Glaciation to Penultimate (Waimea) Glaciation. The absolute ages of landforms were established by analysis of the thickness and soil stratigraphy of loess coverbeds, augmented with radiocarbon dating and phytolith and pollen analysis. In the prevailing high rainfall of Westland soil formation is rapid. The rate of loess accretion in Saltwater Forest (ca. 30 mm ka⁻¹) has been low enough that soil formation and loess accretion took place contemporaneously. Soils formed in this manner are known as upbuilding soils. The significant difference between upbuilding pedogenesis and pedogenesis in a topdown sense into an existing sediment body is that each subsoil increment of an upbuilding soil has experienced processes of all horizons above. In Saltwater Forest subsoils of upbuilding soils are strongly altered because they have experienced the extremely acid environment of the soil surface at some earlier time. Some soil chronosequence studies in Westland have included upbuilding soils formed in loess as the older members of the sequence. Rates and types of processes inferred from these soils should be reviewed because upbuilding is a different pedogenic pathway to topdown pedogenesis. Landform age and morphology were used as a primary stratification for a study of the soil pattern and nature of soil variability in the 4000 ha production area of Saltwater Forest. The age of landforms (> 14 ka) and rapid soil formation mean that soils are uniformly strongly weathered and leached. Soils include Humic Organic Soils, Perch-gley Podzols, Acid Gley Soils, Allophanic Brown Soils, and Orthic or Pan Podzols. The major influence on the nature of soils is site hydrology which is determined by macroscale features of landforms (slope, relief, drainage density), mesoscale effects related to position on landforms, and microscale influences determined by microtopography and individual tree effects. Much of the soil variability arises at microscales so that it is not possible to map areas of uniform soils at practical map scales. The distribution of soil variability across spatial scales, in relation to the intensity of forest management, dictates that it is most appropriate to map soil complexes with boundaries coinciding with landforms. Disturbance of canopy trees is an important agent in forest dynamics. The frequency of forest disturbance in the production area of Saltwater Forest varies in a systematic way among landforms in accord with changes in abundance of different soils. The frequency of forest turnover is highest on landforms with the greatest abundance of extremely poorly-drained Organic Soils. As the abundance of better-drained soils increases the frequency of forest turnover declines. Changes in turnover frequency are reflected in the mean size and density of canopy trees (Dacrydium cupressinum) among landforms. Terrace and ablation moraine landforms with the greatest abundance of extremely poorly-drained soils have on average the smallest trees growing most densely. The steep lateral moraines, characterised by well drained soils, have fewer, larger trees. The changes manifested at the landform scale are an integration of processes operating over much shorter range as a result of short-range soil variability. The systematic changes in forest structure and turnover frequency among landforms and soils have important implications for sustainable forest management.