Li, Nan. / Thesis (M.Phil.)--Chinese University of Hong Kong, 2009. / Includes bibliographical references (leaves 88-90). / Abstract also in Chinese. / Chapter 1 --- Introduction --- p.1 / Chapter 1.1 --- Overview --- p.1 / Chapter 1.2 --- Literature on Illegal Immigration --- p.2 / Chapter 1.3 --- Literature on Income Distribution --- p.4 / Chapter 1.4 --- Outline and Contribution --- p.5 / Chapter 2 --- The Solow Model of Illegal Immigration --- p.7 / Chapter 2.1 --- The Basic Model --- p.7 / Chapter 2.2 --- Equilibrium and Transitional Dynamics --- p.10 / Chapter 2.2.1 --- Aggregate level --- p.10 / Chapter 2.2.2 --- Individual level --- p.12 / Chapter 3 --- Sensitivity Analysis in the Solow Model --- p.16 / Chapter 3.1 --- Benchmark Example --- p.16 / Chapter 3.2 --- Input Shares --- p.18 / Chapter 3.3 --- Share of Unskilled Labor 0 --- p.20 / Chapter 3.4 --- Different Initial Value of Capital --- p.21 / Chapter 4 --- The Ramsey Model of Illegal Immigration --- p.23 / Chapter 4.1 --- The Basic Model --- p.24 / Chapter 4.2 --- Transitional Dynamics and Equilibrium --- p.26 / Chapter 4.2.1 --- Transitional Dynamics --- p.26 / Chapter 4.2.2 --- Steady State --- p.27 / Chapter 5 --- Sensitivity Analysis in the Ramsey Model --- p.28 / Chapter 5.1 --- Benchmark Example --- p.29 / Chapter 5.2 --- Input Share --- p.30 / Chapter 5.3 --- Elasticity of Substitution 0 --- p.31 / Chapter 5.4 --- Penalty Ratio r --- p.32 / Chapter 5.5 --- Different Initial Value of Capital --- p.33 / Chapter 5.5.1 --- Case 1 k10 < k20 --- p.34 / Chapter 5.5.2 --- Case 2 k10 > k20 --- p.35 / Chapter 6 --- Comparison and Conclusion --- p.36

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The topic of convergence in real GDP per capita has become a very sensitive issue, its results often depending on how the sample group, time period, estimation approach and theoretical concept are chosen. This dissertation presents a study and a convenient explanation of the Mankiw, Romer and Weil's (1992) augmentation of the Solow's (1956) neoclassical growth model and its subsequent empirical application to the EU27 over the period 1970-2010. The application is based on the convergence models designed by the Augmented Solow's model and studies convergence speed and patterns among the EU27 countries. The evidence indicates that the pace of convergence within the EU27 is much slower than what the model predicts. Nevertheless, the analysis shows that an increase in human capital has a stronger impact on per capita GDP and, by extension, on convergence than a similar increase in physical capital.

The purpose of this thesis is to examine the role of financial markets and institutions on the economical growth of a developing country. The IRS (interest rate spread) is used as the main tool, to examine Chile and Taiwan regarding their economical growth between 1988 and 2007. The reason Taiwan and Chile have been chosen is due to vast differences in the geographical location, and even divergence in political and economical system of these countries. The research method that has been chosen for this thesis is a quantitative method. The economic theory is mainly based on secondary data. The method of data presentation and analysis are manly descriptive even though the layout of the thesis is more of an explanation research. The carculations are made with the statictical computer program SPSS. The results of the study are expressed mathematically and in sets of tables. In order to determinate the correlation between IRS and macroeconomic factors and the correlation between IRS and Economy growth, the magnitude and trend of the IRS is analysed from 1988 to 2007. To test the hypothesis, the OLS regression and panel data model is used. The theoretical part is the base of the empirical part. The theoretical part is needed in order to understand and later on analyze the results from research on Chile and Taiwan. Different aspects of economical growth are defined to make it easier to understand and follow the thesis thoroughly. The financial markets and institutions are discussed very shortly. To understand the growth theory, Solow growth model is discussed, which is one of the most important models concerning the economical growth. The empirical part of the thesis is dealing with the test of IRS against some macro economical factors such as; costumer price index (CPI), Exchange Rate (EX), Export Volume (EXP) and Money Supply (MO) of two different countries; Taiwan and Chile. The study provides evidence of the correlation between interest rate spread and the macroeconomical factors. The result shows that the correlation between interest rate spread and the macroeconomics factors vary from country to country. This mainly depends on the difference in political situation, the different economic and political policies of various goverments, the high inflation rates and the market structure of the countries. The value of the coefficients gives the magnitude of adjustment in the event that the systems move out of equilibrium. It also provides some evidence that there is a significant relationship between interst rate spread and economical growth. The test results show clearly that in order to gain a sustainable development and economical growth the financial markets must perform well.

<p>The purpose of this thesis is to examine the role of financial markets and institutions on the economical growth of a developing country. The IRS (interest rate spread) is used as the main tool, to examine Chile and Taiwan regarding their economical growth between 1988 and 2007. The reason Taiwan and Chile have been chosen is due to vast differences in the geographical location, and even divergence in political and economical system of these countries.</p><p>The research method that has been chosen for this thesis is a quantitative method. The economic theory is mainly based on secondary data. The method of data presentation and analysis are manly descriptive even though the layout of the thesis is more of an explanation research. The carculations are made with the statictical computer program SPSS. The results of the study are expressed mathematically and in sets of tables. In order to determinate the correlation between IRS and macroeconomic factors and the correlation between IRS and Economy growth, the magnitude and trend of the IRS is analysed from 1988 to 2007. To test the hypothesis, the OLS regression and panel data model is used.</p><p>The theoretical part is the base of the empirical part. The theoretical part is needed in order to understand and later on analyze the results from research on Chile and Taiwan. Different aspects of economical growth are defined to make it easier to understand and follow the thesis thoroughly. The financial markets and institutions are discussed very shortly. To understand the growth theory, Solow growth model is discussed, which is one of the most important models concerning the economical growth.</p><p>The empirical part of the thesis is dealing with the test of IRS against some macro economical factors such as; costumer price index (CPI), Exchange Rate (EX), Export Volume (EXP) and Money Supply (MO) of two different countries; Taiwan and Chile. The study provides evidence of the correlation between interest rate spread and the macroeconomical factors. The result shows that the correlation between interest rate spread and the macroeconomics factors vary from country to country. This mainly depends on the difference in political situation, the different economic and political policies of various goverments, the high inflation rates and the market structure of the countries. The value of the coefficients gives the magnitude of adjustment in the event that the systems move out of equilibrium. It also provides some evidence that there is a significant relationship between interst rate spread and economical growth. The test results show clearly that in order to gain a sustainable development and economical growth the financial markets must perform well.</p>

As the public becomes more concerned with the natural environment, one of the major topics discussed is the oil. Since there is no true source of knowledge how long the oil can continue to be extracted, it is interesting to know how long the world can benefit from such as scarce resource. Instead of idly watching as oil production decreases with time, which pre-measures could be taken in order to minimize a negative impact on an economy? The UAE is a thriving oil rich countries which for the past 30 years have experienced a vast oil wealth. Even though the oil gave wealth to the UAE, they should avoid any future oil dependency since it could negatively affect its now flourishing economy. Therefore, for the UAE to continue growing in the future it is in the best interest for the government to focus on a diversifying strategy that promotes the non-oil economy. By referring to concepts and theories of previous research in this field such as the Solow growth model, Resource curse and Dutch disease the authors find that the UAE had managed to diversify or not. Three sectors in different periods between 1970 and 2007 were measured: The oil sector, the non-oil sector and the government sector. Diversification changes means a decreasing dependency of the oil sector to the non-oil sector while the latter instead depends more on the government sector. Using British Petroleum (2008) and United Nations (2008) as sources, data was collected in order to draw a time-series regression analysis and test empirically for these diversification trends. The results for all periods confirmed that the UAE have indeed diversified and it could thus be observed that it started its successful strategy already in the 1970s. With the right government policy investments and the stability in the union, the UAE prevented from becoming dependent on oil and thereby not crowding out its important non-oil economy. / Med en ökad allmän medvetenhet angående naturmiljön så är oljan bland det mest omtalande temat. Eftersom inget vet exakt hur länge oljan kan utvinnas, är det intressant att veta hur länge världen kan förlita sig på en sådan begränsad resurs. Finns det förebyggande medel för att minska en negativ verkan på ekonomin istället för att passivt bevittna en sjunkande oljeproduktion? Förenta Arabemiraten (FAE) är en framgångsrik union som under de senaste 30 åren har åtnjutit en omfattande oljerikedom. Trots att oljan lade grunden för tillväxten i FAE, så börs unionen undvika sitt oljeberoende eftersom den negativt kan påverka den nuvarande blomstrande ekonomin. Således, för att bibehålla tillväxten i FAE för framtiden, borde det vara i statens största intresse att fokusera på en differentierings-strategi som främjar icke-oljans ekonomi. För att veta om FAE faktiskt har differentierat sig eller inte, används koncept och teorier för tidigare forskning kring områdets som t.ex. Solows tillväxtmodel, Resursförbannelsen och holländska sjukan. Tre sektorer mättes i olika perioder mellan 1970-2007: oljesektorn, icke-sektorn och statssektorn. Icke-olje sektorn förväntas minska oljeberoendet samt öka beroendet av statssektorn vilket resulterar i en differentieringstrend i ekonomin. Genom källor från British Petroleum (2008) och Förenta Nationerna (2008)  har data insamlats för att empiriskt testa en tidsserie regression och se förändringar mellan sektorerna. Under alla perioder i FAE blev en differentieringstrend bekräftad och man kunde därför se att denna framgångsrika strategi redan åtogs i 1970-talet. Med effektiva investeringar i den offentliga sektorn samt en hållbar stabilitet i unionen, undvek FAE ett oljeberoende och därmed främjade icke-olje ekonomin.

<p><strong>As the public becomes more concerned with the natural environment, one of the major topics discussed is the oil. Since there is no true source of knowledge how long the oil can continue to be extracted, it is interesting to know how long the world can benefit from such as scarce resource. Instead of idly watching as oil production decreases with time, which pre-measures could be taken in order to minimize a negative impact on an economy? The UAE is a thriving oil rich countries which for the past 30 years have experienced a vast oil wealth. Even though the oil gave wealth to the UAE, they should avoid any future oil dependency since it could negatively affect its now flourishing economy. Therefore, for the UAE to continue growing in the future it is in the best interest for the government to focus on a diversifying strategy that promotes the non-oil economy. By referring to concepts and theories of previous research in this field such as the Solow growth model, Resource curse and Dutch disease the authors find that the UAE had managed to diversify or not. Three sectors in different periods between 1970 and 2007 were measured: The oil sector, the non-oil sector and the government sector. Diversification changes means a decreasing dependency of the oil sector to the non-oil sector while the latter instead depends more on the government sector. Using British Petroleum (2008) and United Nations (2008) as sources, data was collected in order to draw a time-series regression analysis and test empirically for these diversification trends. The results for all periods confirmed that the UAE have indeed diversified and it could thus be observed that it started its successful strategy already in the 1970s. With the right government policy investments and the stability in the union, the UAE prevented from becoming dependent on oil and thereby not crowding out its important non-oil economy. </strong></p> / <p><strong>Med en ökad allmän medvetenhet angående naturmiljön så är oljan bland det mest omtalande temat. Eftersom inget vet exakt hur länge oljan kan utvinnas, är det intressant att veta hur länge världen kan förlita sig på en sådan begränsad resurs. Finns det förebyggande medel för att minska en negativ verkan på ekonomin istället för att passivt bevittna en sjunkande oljeproduktion? Förenta Arabemiraten (FAE) är en framgångsrik union som under de senaste 30 åren har åtnjutit en omfattande oljerikedom. Trots att oljan lade grunden för tillväxten i FAE, så börs unionen undvika sitt oljeberoende eftersom den negativt kan påverka den nuvarande blomstrande ekonomin. Således, för att bibehålla tillväxten i FAE för framtiden, borde det vara i statens största intresse att fokusera på en differentierings-strategi som främjar icke-oljans ekonomi. För att veta om FAE faktiskt har differentierat sig eller inte, används koncept och teorier för tidigare forskning kring områdets som t.ex. Solows tillväxtmodel, Resursförbannelsen och holländska sjukan. Tre sektorer mättes i olika perioder mellan 1970-2007: oljesektorn, icke-sektorn och statssektorn. Icke-olje sektorn förväntas minska oljeberoendet samt öka beroendet av statssektorn vilket resulterar i en differentieringstrend i ekonomin. Genom källor från British Petroleum (2008) och Förenta Nationerna (2008)  har data insamlats för att empiriskt testa en tidsserie regression och se förändringar mellan sektorerna. Under alla perioder i FAE blev en differentieringstrend bekräftad och man kunde därför se att denna framgångsrika strategi redan åtogs i 1970-talet. Med effektiva investeringar i den offentliga sektorn samt en hållbar stabilitet i unionen, undvek FAE ett oljeberoende och därmed främjade icke-olje ekonomin.</strong><strong></strong></p>

Seit den 70er Jahren erscheint die Welteinkommensverteilung zwischen den Nationen polarisiert in arm und reich. Dieses Phänomen kann theoretisch mithilfe des Solow Wachstumsmodells erklärt werden. Der Nachweis wurde auf drei Arten geführt. Als erstes wurde graphisch gezeigt, dass Änderungen der Annahmen bezüglich der Sparquote, des Bevölkerungswachstums sowie der Sparquote des Humankapital im erweiterten Solow Wachstumsmodell zu Bipolarität führen können. Die zweite Vorgehensweise war analytisch: eine endogene Sparquote wurde in das Solow Wachstumsmodell eingefügt, für welches dann die Gleichgewichte bestimmt wurden. Es konnte gezeigt werden, dass es zur Polarisierung kommt. Schließlich wurde ein empirisch determiniertes Solow Wachstumsmodell formuliert. Die Sparquote sowie die Bevölkerungswachstumsrate wurden mithilfe von Regressionen geschätzt und in das Modell integriert. Hieraus wurden anschließend die Gleichgewichte bestimmt.

Seit den 70er Jahren erscheint die Welteinkommensverteilung zwischen den Nationen polarisiert in arm und reich. Dieses Phänomen kann theoretisch mithilfe des Solow Wachstumsmodells erklärt werden. Der Nachweis wurde auf drei Arten geführt. Als erstes wurde graphisch gezeigt, dass Änderungen der Annahmen bezüglich der Sparquote, des Bevölkerungswachstums sowie der Sparquote des Humankapital im erweiterten Solow Wachstumsmodell zu Bipolarität führen können. Die zweite Vorgehensweise war analytisch: eine endogene Sparquote wurde in das Solow Wachstumsmodell eingefügt, für welches dann die Gleichgewichte bestimmt wurden. Es konnte gezeigt werden, dass es zur Polarisierung kommt. Schließlich wurde ein empirisch determiniertes Solow Wachstumsmodell formuliert. Die Sparquote sowie die Bevölkerungswachstumsrate wurden mithilfe von Regressionen geschätzt und in das Modell integriert. Hieraus wurden anschließend die Gleichgewichte bestimmt.

Theoretical and empirical literature suggest that public expenditure plays very important role in economic growth, especially in the developing countries. Available statistics show that Nigeria’s 5-year average annual real public expenditure/GDP ratio grew during the greater part of the study period 1981-2015, while the 5-year average annual real GDP growth and real GDP per capita growth rates are positive during the same study period, except for 1981-1985 and 1986-1990, respectively. The incidence of poverty, however, maintained upward movement, except for 2006-2010. The foregoing interactions have been seldom, the focus of empirical studies in Nigeria. This study examines the effects of public expenditure on economic growth and poverty reduction in Nigeria from 1981-2015, using variants of two models and simulation exercise: augmented Solow growth model and growth-poverty model. Real public expenditure/GDP ratio is used as the policy variable and the simulation duration is for 5-years, 2016-2020. We use the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) bounds testing procedure by Pesaran et al. (2001) to estimate the two models, given that the annual data used for the models’ estimations were integrated of order I(1) and I(0) and small sample size. The results from the two models confirmed that public expenditure increases economic growth, though not significant, while economic growth does not reduce poverty. The same findings are confirmed through the simulation exercise. We, however, offer measures that would ensure growth and poverty reduction in Nigeria; public expenditure switch that encourages more investments in capital public expenditure, social sector public expenditure and private capital investment. / Central Bank of Nigeria