Climate change impacts hydrology, nutrient cycling, agricultural conservation practices, and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. The Chesapeake Bay and its watershed are subject to the largest and most expensive Total Maximum Daily Load (TMDL) ever developed. It is unclear if the TMDL can be met given climate change and variability (e.g., extreme weather events). The objective of this dissertation is to quantify the impact of climate change and climate on water resources, nutrient cycling and export in agroecosystems, and agricultural conservation practices in the Chesapeake Bay watershed. This is accomplished by developing and employing a suite of modelling tools. GHG emissions from agroecosystems, particularly nitrous oxide (N2O), are an increasing concern. To quantify N2O emissions a routine was developed for the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model. The new routine predicts N2O and di-nitrogen (N2) emissions by coupling the C and N cycles with soil moisture, temperature, and pH in SWAT. The model uses reduction functions to predict total denitrification (N2 + N2O production) and partitions N2 from N2O using a ratio method. The SWAT nitrification routine was modified to predict N2O emissions using reduction functions. The new model was tested using GRACEnet data at University Park, Pennsylvania, and West Lafayette, Indiana. Results showed strong correlations between plot measurements of N2O flux and the model predictions for both test sites and suggest that N2O emissions are particularly sensitive to soil pH and soil N, and moderately sensitive to soil temperature/moisture and total soil C levels. The new GHG model was then used to analyze the impact of climate change and extreme weather conditions on the denitrification rate, N2O emissions, and nutrient cycling/export in the 7.4 km2 WE38 watershed in Pennsylvania. Climate change impacts hydrology and nutrient cycling by changing soil moisture, stoichiometric nutrient ratios, and soil temperature, potentially complicating mitigation measures. To quantify the impact of climate change we forced the new GHG model with downscaled and bias-corrected regional climate model output and derived climate anomalies to assess their impact on hydrology, nitrate (NO3-), phosphorus (P), and sediment export, and on emissions of N2O and N2. Model-average (± standard deviation) results indicate that climate change, through an increase in precipitation, will result in moderate increases in winter/spring flow (2.7±10.6 %) and NO3- export (3.0±7.3 %), substantial increases in dissolved P (DP, 8.8±19.8 %), total P (TP, 4.5±11.7 %), and sediment (17.9±14.2 %) export, and greater N2O (63.3±50.8 %) and N2 (17.6±20.7 %) emissions. Conversely, decreases in summer flow (-12.4±26.7 %) and the export of P (-11.4±27.4 %), TP (-7.9±24.5 %), sediment (-4.1±21.4 %), and NO3- (-12.2±31.4 %) are driven by greater evapotranspiration from increasing summer temperatures. Increases in N2O (20.1±29.3 %) and decreases in N2 (-13.0±14.6 %) are also predicted in the summer and driven by increases in soil moisture and temperature. In an effort to assess the impact of climate change at a regional level, the model was then scaled-up to the entire Susquehanna River basin and was used to evaluate if agricultural best management practices (BMPs) can offset the impact of climate change. Agricultural BMPs are increasingly and widely employed to reduce diffuse nutrient pollution. Climate change can complicate the development, implementation, and efficiency of BMPs by altering hydrology, nutrient cycling, and erosion. We select and evaluate four common BMPs (buffer strips, strip crop, no-till, and tile drainage) to test their response to climate change. We force the calibrated model with six downscaled global climate models (GCMs) for a historic period (1990-2014) and two future scenario periods (2041-2065) and (2075-2099) and quantify the impact of climate change on hydrology, NO3-, total N (TN), DP, TP, and sediment export with and without BMPs. We also tested prioritizing BMP installation on the 30% of agricultural lands that generate the most runoff (e.g., critical source areas-CSAs). Compared against the historical baseline and excluding the impact of BMPs, the ensemble model mean (± standard deviation?) predictions indicate that climate change results in annual increases in flow (4.5±7.3%), surface runoff (3.5±6.1%), sediment export (28.5±18.2%) and TN (9.5±5.1%), but decreases in NO3- (12±12.8%), DP (14±11.5%), and TP (2.5±7.4%) export. When agricultural BMPs are simulated most do not appreciably change the overall water balance; however, tile drainage and strip crop decrease surface runoff generation and the export of sediment, DP, and TP, while buffer strips reduced N export substantially. Installing BMPs on critical source areas (CSAs) results in nearly the same level of performance for most practices and most pollutants. These results suggest that climate change will influence the performance of BMPs and that targeting BMPs to CSAs can provide nearly the same level of water quality impact as more widespread adoption. Finally, recognizing that all of these model applications have considerable uncertainty associated with their predictions, we develop and employ a Bayesian multi-model ensemble to evaluate structural model prediction uncertainty. The reliability of watershed models in a management context depends largely on associated uncertainties. Our Objective is to quantify structural uncertainty for predictions of flow, sediment, TN, and TP predictions using three models: the SWAT-Variable Source Area model (SWAT-VSA), the standard SWAT model (SWAT-ST), and the Chesapeake Bay watershed model (CBP-model). We initialize each of the models using weather, soil, and land use data and analyze outputs of flow, sediment, TN, and TP for the Susquehanna River basin at the Conowingo Dam in Conowingo, Maryland. Using these three models we fit Bayesian Generalized Non - Linear Multilevel Models (BGMM) for flow, sediment, TN, and TP and obtain estimated outputs with 95% confidence intervals. We compare the BGMM results against the individual model results and straight model averaging (SMA) results using a split time period analysis (training period and testing period) to assess the BGMM in a predictive fashion. The BGMM provided better predictions of flow, sediment, TN, and TP compared to individual models and the SMA during the training period. However, during the testing period the BGMM was not always the best predictor; in fact, there was no clear best model during the testing period. Perhaps more importantly, the BGMM provides estimates of prediction uncertainty, which can enhance decision making and improve watershed management by providing a risk-based assessment of outcomes. / Ph. D. / Climate change impacts hydrology, nutrient cycling, agricultural conservation practices, and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. The Chesapeake Bay and its watershed are subject to the largest and most expensive Total Maximum Daily Load (TMDL) ever developed. It is unclear if the TMDL can be met given climate change and variability. The objective of this dissertation is to quantify the impact of climate change and climate on water resources, nutrient cycling and export in agroecosystems, and agricultural conservation practices in the Chesapeake Bay watershed. This is accomplished by developing and employing different modeling tools. First, GHG emissions model was developed to quantify nitrous oxide (N₂O) emissions from agroecosystems, which are an increasing concern. The new model was then tested using observed N₂O emissions data at University Park, Pennsylvania, and West Lafayette, Indiana. Results showed strong correlations between plot measurements of N₂O flux and the model predictions for both test sites. Second, the new GHG model was then used to analyze the impact of climate change and extreme weather conditions on the N₂O emissions, and nutrient cycling/export in small and regional watershed scale. To quantify the impact of climate change we forced the new GHG model with downscaled and bias-corrected regional climate model date to assess their impact on hydrology, nitrate (NO₃-), phosphorus (P), and sediment export, and on emissions of N₂O and N₂. Finally, recognizing that all of these model applications have considerable uncertainty associated with their predictions, we developed and employed a Bayesian multi-model ensemble to evaluate structural model prediction uncertainty.

As florestas nativas desempenham papel importante nos processos hidrológicoas, como regulação e provisão de água ao longo do ano. As mudanças do uso do solo, e o manejo intensivo das florestas plantadas podem causar efeitos sobre essas funções hidrológicas. As atividades de manejo do solo podem afetar os tipos de mecanismos de geração de escoamento superficial, o escoamento hortoniano, o escoamento superficial de áreas saturadas e o escoamento sub-superficial, o que por consequência afeta a disponibilidade de água em quantidade e qualidade. Diante disso, o objetivo deste trabalho foi avaliar a geração de escoamento direto em microbacias hidrográficas com coberturas florestais. Sendo que, o segundo capítulo teve como objetivo avaliar o regime hidrológico e os tipos de mecanismos de geração de escoamento superficial em microbacia hidrográfica coberta por floresta nativa e em microbacia hidrográfica coberta por floresta plantada de Pinus spp. Na microbacia com floresta plantada de Pinus spp. a demanda hídrica foi alta, com rendimento hídrico menor que 10%. E mesmo com as atividades de manejo do solo, as propriedades do solo foram mantidas e o escoamento base foi maior e apresentou baixo coeficiente de escoamento. A microbacia coberta por floresta nativa apresentou rendimento hídrico acima de 10%, com índice de escoamento base maior que o escoamento direto, porém apresentou um maior coeficiente de escoamento. O que pode ter ocorrido devido às características físicas e pedológicas da área, relevo íngreme e solo com textura franca. Os resultados de condutividade hidráulica do solo saturado foram maiores que a intensidade da precipitação nas duas microbacias hidrográficas, mostrando que não é para ocorrer escoamento superficial hortoniano. Assim ocorreu predomínio de escoamento direto por meio do mecanismo de escoamento superficial de áreas saturadas. No terceiro capítulo foram avaliadas metodologias de caracterização das áreas variáveis de afluência nas duas microbacias hidrográficas. A metodologia da frequência de saturação se mostrou um método eficaz, em que as áreas variáveis de afluência ocorreram em 18,5% e 13,2%, na microbacia com floresta plantada de Pinus e na microbacia com floresta nativa, respectivamente. Já o método da relação escoamento direto-precipitação subestimou a área variável de afluência na microbacia com floresta plantada de Pinus, mas na microbacia com floresta nativa a quantidade de área foi semelhante. Os resultados demostraram que, mesmo com manejo florestal os processos hidrológicos estão ocorrendo na microbacia com floresta plantada de Pinus. E o planejamento florestal deve considerar ocorrência das áreas saturadas nas áreas de plantio e evitar atividades na época chuvosa e a construção de estradas nessas áreas. / Native forest plays an important role in hydrological process, such as regulation and provision of water, however land-use change, and intensive management of planted forest can modify the hydrological functions. Soil management can affect types of overland flow generation mechanism, the infiltration excess overland flow or Hortonian flow and the saturation excess overland flow, which consequently affects the availability of water in quantity and quality. The objective of this work was to understand the generation of overland flow in catchments with forest cover. In the second chapter, the aim was to characterize hydrologically and to understand the types of overland flow mechanism in a catchment covered by forest plantation of Pinus and in a catchment covered by native forest. In the catchment covered by forest plantation of Pinus, the water demand was high, with water yield lower than 10%. And even with the soil management, the soil properties were maintained, and the base flow was higher, and the flow coefficient was lower. The catchment covered by native forest presented high water yield, with base flow higher than the overland flow, but presented a high flow coefficient. This may have occurred due to the physical and pedological characteristics of the area, such as steep terrain and the frank soil. The soil saturated hydraulic conductivity was higher than the precipitation intensity in the two catchments, showing that the Hortonian overland flow does not occur, thus, to occur the saturation excess overland flow mechanism. In the third chapter, the aim of the work was to evaluate methodologies for characterizing the variable source areas in the two catchments. The saturation frequency methodology showed an effective method, the variable source area occurred in 18,5% of the forest plantation of Pinus catchments area, and 13,2% of the total area of the native forest catchment. The overland flow-precipitation ratio underestimated the saturated areas in the forest plantation of Pinus catchment, however in the native forest catchment the amount of saturated areas was similar. The results showed that the forest management does not affected the hydrological process in the catchment with forest plantation of Pinus. And the forest management planning should consider the occurrence of saturated areas in the planting areas and to avoid activities in the rainy season and the construction of roads in these areas.

As áreas variáveis de afluência (AVAs) são dinâmicas, apresentando expansão das áreas saturadas durante os eventos de chuva, geralmente próximas aos cursos d\'água e, no momento que a chuva cessa, estas áreas saturadas se contraem. O escoamento superficial ocorre nessas áreas devido ao excesso de saturação, provocado pelo aumento do volume d\'água armazenado no perfil de solo e, extravasamento nas áreas com solos rasos, próxima aos rios. Dessa forma, faz-se necessário quantificar o processo de escoamento superficial para a correta delimitação das AVAs. A utilização dos modelos hidrológicos para essa finalidade teve início após legislação estadunidense que define níveis máximos permitidos para poluição difusa. Diversos modelos foram desenvolvidos para quantificar a entrada de poluentes nos corpos hídricos, entretanto não havia maneira precisa de localizar as áreas variáveis de afluência, sendo estas as mais propensas a carrear os contaminantes. Somente através da utilização de modelos hidrológicos distribuídos foi possível considerar o componente espacial, ou seja, a localização exata da ocorrência dos processos hidrológicos, e sua inter-relação com uso de solo e tipo de solo, permitindo testar diferentes cenários avaliando quais áreas convertidas em florestas contribuiriam para maior ganho de serviços ecossistêmicos relacionados à manutenção de recursos hídricos. Portanto, foram modelados 3 cenários: o cenário atual, o cenário AVA e o cenário Código Florestal. O primeiro representa a situação atual do uso do solo, e fornece base para comparação com outros cenários. A probabilidade de saturação para este cenário foi definida com uso do modelo hidrológico GSSHA, permitindo delimitar as áreas variáveis de afluência e criar o cenário AVA, o qual simula a restauração florestal em todas as áreas variáveis de afluência. Por último, foi modelado o cenário Código Florestal, que simula a restauração florestal das áreas de preservação permanentes (APPs), com a função de avaliar quais os impactos para a manutenção dos recursos hídricos caso seja cumprido o Código Florestal (Lei nº. 4.711/65) e sejam restauradas todas as áreas de preservação permanente. Os resultados mostram que a restauração das AVA, com alteração de apenas 4,04% da área total da bacia, aumentaria em 48% a infiltração da água no solo, eliminando a geração de escoamento superficial em áreas agrosilvopastoris e conseqüente carreamento de poluentes provenientes dessas áreas. A restauração das APPs representa uma alteração de 9,36% da área da bacia e promove a recuperação da dinâmica de expansão e contração das nascentes da bacia hidrográfica, que garante redução da vazão e atraso do pico de vazão, evitando respostas hidrológicas hortonianas na bacia hidrográfica. Ambos cenários apresentam benefícios para manutenção dos recursos hídricos. As áreas de preservação permanente apresentam papel significativo na proteção dos recursos hídricos, protegendo mais de 60% das AVAs e sendo de fácil delimitação. A utilização do índice topográfico como variável substituta à modelagem hidrológica apresentou correlação de ~0,33, que permite utilizar o índice para uma análise exploratória, porém insuficiente para delimitar as áreas variáveis de afluência. / The variables source areas (VSA) are dynamic, showing expansion of saturated areas during rain events, usually near to streams and, at the time the rain stops, these saturated areas contract. Runoff occurs in these areas due to saturation excess overland flow, caused by increased of stored volume water in the soil profile, and extravasation in areas with shallow soils, next to streams. Thus, it is necessary to quantify the process of runoff for the correct delineation of VSA. The use of hydrological models for this purpose began after U.S. law which sets maximum permitted levels for diffuse pollution. Several models have been developed to quantify the entry of pollutants in water bodies, however there was no accurate way to pinpoint variables source areas, which are the most likely to carrying contaminants. Only through the use of distributed hydrological models was possible to consider the spatial component, in other words, the exact location of the occurrence of hydrological processes and their interrelationship with land use and soil type, allowing you to test different scenarios by assessing which areas converted to forests contribute to greater gains in ecosystem services related to maintenance of water resources. Therefore, were evaluated three scenarios: the actual scenario, the VSA scenario and the Forest Code scenario. The first one represents the current state of land use and provides a basis for comparison with other scenarios. The probability of saturation for this scenario was defined using the hydrological model GSSHA, allowing to delimit variables source areas and to create the VSA scenario, which simulates forest restoration in all variables source areas. Finally, was modeled the Forestry Code scenario, which simulates forest restoration of permanent preservation areas (PPA), whose function is to assess the impacts for the maintenance of water resources if it complied the Forest Code (Law nº. 4.711/65) and restored all permanent preservation areas. The results show that the restoration of the VSA, with only a 4,04% change of the total area of the watershed, it would increase in 48% water infiltration into the soil, eliminating the generation of surface runoff and consequent carry pollutants from these areas. The restoration of the PPA represents a change of 9,36% of the watershed area and promotes the recovery of dynamic expansion and contraction of the headwaters of the watershed, which ensures reduction in flow rate and delay peak flow, avoiding answers hortonian in the hydrological basin. Both scenarios provide benefits for maintenance of water resources. The permanent preservation areas have significant role in protecting water resources, protecting more than 60% of VSA and being easy delimitation. The use of topographic index as surrogate parameter correlated to the hydrological modeling of ~ 0,33, which allows use the index to an exploratory analysis, but insufficient to delineate the variables source areas.

As áreas variáveis de afluência (AVAs) são dinâmicas, apresentando expansão das áreas saturadas durante os eventos de chuva, geralmente próximas aos cursos d\'água e, no momento que a chuva cessa, estas áreas saturadas se contraem. O escoamento superficial ocorre nessas áreas devido ao excesso de saturação, provocado pelo aumento do volume d\'água armazenado no perfil de solo e, extravasamento nas áreas com solos rasos, próxima aos rios. Dessa forma, faz-se necessário quantificar o processo de escoamento superficial para a correta delimitação das AVAs. A utilização dos modelos hidrológicos para essa finalidade teve início após legislação estadunidense que define níveis máximos permitidos para poluição difusa. Diversos modelos foram desenvolvidos para quantificar a entrada de poluentes nos corpos hídricos, entretanto não havia maneira precisa de localizar as áreas variáveis de afluência, sendo estas as mais propensas a carrear os contaminantes. Somente através da utilização de modelos hidrológicos distribuídos foi possível considerar o componente espacial, ou seja, a localização exata da ocorrência dos processos hidrológicos, e sua inter-relação com uso de solo e tipo de solo, permitindo testar diferentes cenários avaliando quais áreas convertidas em florestas contribuiriam para maior ganho de serviços ecossistêmicos relacionados à manutenção de recursos hídricos. Portanto, foram modelados 3 cenários: o cenário atual, o cenário AVA e o cenário Código Florestal. O primeiro representa a situação atual do uso do solo, e fornece base para comparação com outros cenários. A probabilidade de saturação para este cenário foi definida com uso do modelo hidrológico GSSHA, permitindo delimitar as áreas variáveis de afluência e criar o cenário AVA, o qual simula a restauração florestal em todas as áreas variáveis de afluência. Por último, foi modelado o cenário Código Florestal, que simula a restauração florestal das áreas de preservação permanentes (APPs), com a função de avaliar quais os impactos para a manutenção dos recursos hídricos caso seja cumprido o Código Florestal (Lei nº. 4.711/65) e sejam restauradas todas as áreas de preservação permanente. Os resultados mostram que a restauração das AVA, com alteração de apenas 4,04% da área total da bacia, aumentaria em 48% a infiltração da água no solo, eliminando a geração de escoamento superficial em áreas agrosilvopastoris e conseqüente carreamento de poluentes provenientes dessas áreas. A restauração das APPs representa uma alteração de 9,36% da área da bacia e promove a recuperação da dinâmica de expansão e contração das nascentes da bacia hidrográfica, que garante redução da vazão e atraso do pico de vazão, evitando respostas hidrológicas hortonianas na bacia hidrográfica. Ambos cenários apresentam benefícios para manutenção dos recursos hídricos. As áreas de preservação permanente apresentam papel significativo na proteção dos recursos hídricos, protegendo mais de 60% das AVAs e sendo de fácil delimitação. A utilização do índice topográfico como variável substituta à modelagem hidrológica apresentou correlação de ~0,33, que permite utilizar o índice para uma análise exploratória, porém insuficiente para delimitar as áreas variáveis de afluência. / The variables source areas (VSA) are dynamic, showing expansion of saturated areas during rain events, usually near to streams and, at the time the rain stops, these saturated areas contract. Runoff occurs in these areas due to saturation excess overland flow, caused by increased of stored volume water in the soil profile, and extravasation in areas with shallow soils, next to streams. Thus, it is necessary to quantify the process of runoff for the correct delineation of VSA. The use of hydrological models for this purpose began after U.S. law which sets maximum permitted levels for diffuse pollution. Several models have been developed to quantify the entry of pollutants in water bodies, however there was no accurate way to pinpoint variables source areas, which are the most likely to carrying contaminants. Only through the use of distributed hydrological models was possible to consider the spatial component, in other words, the exact location of the occurrence of hydrological processes and their interrelationship with land use and soil type, allowing you to test different scenarios by assessing which areas converted to forests contribute to greater gains in ecosystem services related to maintenance of water resources. Therefore, were evaluated three scenarios: the actual scenario, the VSA scenario and the Forest Code scenario. The first one represents the current state of land use and provides a basis for comparison with other scenarios. The probability of saturation for this scenario was defined using the hydrological model GSSHA, allowing to delimit variables source areas and to create the VSA scenario, which simulates forest restoration in all variables source areas. Finally, was modeled the Forestry Code scenario, which simulates forest restoration of permanent preservation areas (PPA), whose function is to assess the impacts for the maintenance of water resources if it complied the Forest Code (Law nº. 4.711/65) and restored all permanent preservation areas. The results show that the restoration of the VSA, with only a 4,04% change of the total area of the watershed, it would increase in 48% water infiltration into the soil, eliminating the generation of surface runoff and consequent carry pollutants from these areas. The restoration of the PPA represents a change of 9,36% of the watershed area and promotes the recovery of dynamic expansion and contraction of the headwaters of the watershed, which ensures reduction in flow rate and delay peak flow, avoiding answers hortonian in the hydrological basin. Both scenarios provide benefits for maintenance of water resources. The permanent preservation areas have significant role in protecting water resources, protecting more than 60% of VSA and being easy delimitation. The use of topographic index as surrogate parameter correlated to the hydrological modeling of ~ 0,33, which allows use the index to an exploratory analysis, but insufficient to delineate the variables source areas.

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No. of bitstreams: 2 Dissertação - Wilson Lopes Mendonça Neto - 2014.pdf: 6260941 bytes, checksum: 7518d54f3139d936b42606076ba0c076 (MD5) license_rdf: 23148 bytes, checksum: 9da0b6dfac957114c6a7714714b86306 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2014-08-25 / Conselho Nacional de Pesquisa e Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico - CNPq / In the context of various urban agglomerations, and in particular the Metropolitan Region of Goiania - RMG, a major challenge that presents today is the availability of water sources, its qualities and also the distribution of water resources for public water supplies. The water supply for RMG is primarily carried out by the company Sanitation Goiás S / A - Saneago and secondarily by independent municipal systems. Goiânia (1.333.767 inhabitants), Aparecida de Goiânia (500.619 inhabitants) and Trindade (107.966 inhabitants) are the most populous municipalities and the sum of its inhabitants (1.915.952) represents more than 85% of the population of RMG. These three municipalities have in common the fact that they are served by a single integrated system of water supply formed by watershed areas of Ribeirão João Leite, Meia Ponte River, Córrego Samambaia, Córrego do Arrozal and Córrego Lajes. This work focused about one of the watershed areas that make up this integrated system. The area corresponds to the Conservation Unit, Parque Municipal Serra da Areia, which is located entirely in the city of Aparecida de Goiânia and, too, its Buffer Zone, that covers areas of the municipalities of Aparecida de Goiania, Goiania, Hidrolandia, and Aragoiânia, and Abadia de Goiás. The aimed was conduct an Environmental Assessment. To this end, observations and analysis were supported by concepts developed within the Study of Landscapes in Physical Geography and methodology Pressure-State-Response utilized for preparation and analysis of environmental indicators. In order to support the organization, the analysis and synthesis of spatial data included in the survey GIS tools were used. From the application of these tools were prepared illustrative resources as thematic maps, infographics, schematic illustrations and tables in order to best represent the consolidated results and the process of organization and execution of the research were developed. The study area was investigated through four main channels: a survey of literature sources on the study area; interviews with various actors involved in the management, planning and the exploitation of resources of the area; acquisition, digital processing of satellite images for extraction and analysis of data and geographic information of the area, which also involved conducting fieldwork for spot verification of such information; obtaining, organizing and analyzing secondary data provided by the National Research by Household Sample, the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics. From the adopted procedures were realized the mapping of landscape units of the study area, over which the environmental assessment was performed. Data were summarized in an index of environmental quality, expressed by a map of environmental quality, from which it was possible to identify and evaluate various environmental contexts. Results demonstrated different levels of changing landscapes and, consequently, the environmental framework. The main consequence related to the identified scenario is the risk of exhaustion and / or pollution of water resources on which they depend are currently more than 100,000 households in Aparecida de Goiânia. / No contexto de diversas aglomerações urbanas e, em específico da Região Metropolitana de Goiânia - RMG, um dos grandes desafios que se apresenta na atualidade diz respeito à disponibilidade de áreas de mananciais, a manutenção de suas qualidades e, ainda, a distribuição dos recursos hídricos por meio de sistemas públicos de abastecimento. Na RMG o abastecimento de água é realizado, principalmente, pela empresa de Saneamento de Goiás S/A – SANEAGO e, secundariamente, por sistemas independentes municipais. Goiânia (1.333.767 habitantes), Aparecida de Goiânia (500.619 habitantes) e Trindade (107.966 habitantes) são os municípios mais populosos e a soma de seus habitantes (1.915.952) corresponde a mais de 85% da população da RMG. Esses três municípios possuem em comum o fato de serem atendidos por um único sistema integrado de abastecimento de água que é formado por áreas de mananciais do Ribeirão João Leite, do Rio Meia Ponte, do Córrego Samambaia, do Córrego Arrozal e do Córrego Lajes. Este trabalho versou sobre uma das áreas de mananciais que compõem esse sistema integrado. A área corresponde a Unidade de Conservação, Parque Municipal Serra da Areia, que se localiza totalmente no município de Aparecida de Goiânia e, também, sua Zona de Amortecimento, que abrange áreas dos municípios de Aparecida de Goiânia, Goiânia, Hidrolândia, Aragoiânia e Abadia de Goiás. Teve-se como objetivo a realização de uma Avaliação Ambiental da área. Para tal, as observações e análises foram amparadas por concepções desenvolvidas no âmbito do Estudo das Paisagens em geografia física e na metodologia Pressão-Estado-Resposta desenvolvida para elaboração e análise de indicadores ambientais. Foram utilizadas ferramentas SIGs, a partir das quais foram elaborados recursos ilustrativos como mapas temáticos, infográficos, ilustrações esquemáticas, quadros e tabelas a fim de melhor representar os resultados consolidados e o processo de organização e execução da pesquisa. A área de estudo foi investigada por meio de quatro vias principais: o levantamento de fontes bibliográficas sobre a área de estudo; realização de entrevistas com diversos atores envolvidos com a gestão, o planejamento e a exploração dos recursos da área; aquisição, tratamento digital de imagens de satélite para extração e análise de dados e informações geográficas da área, o que envolveu, também, a realização de trabalhos de campo para verificação in loco dessas informações; obtenção, organização e análise de dados secundários disponibilizados pela Pesquisa Nacional por Amostra de Domicílios, do Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística. A partir dos procedimentos adotados realizou-se o mapeamento das Unidades da Paisagem da área de estudo, sobre as quais, foi realizada a avaliação ambiental. Os dados foram sintetizados em um índice de qualidade ambiental, expresso por um mapa de qualidade ambiental, a partir do qual foi possível identificar e avaliar diversos contextos ambientais. Os resultados demonstraram diferentes níveis de alteração das paisagens e, consequentemente, do quadro ambiental. A principal consequência relacionada ao cenário identificado é o risco de esgotamento e/ou contaminação dos recursos hídricos, dos quais dependem atualmente mais de 100.000 domicílios de Aparecida de Goiânia.