Thesis--Air Command and Staff College, Air University, Maxwell Air Force Base, April 2005. / "April 2005." Thesis advisor: Dr. Bert L. Frandsen. Performed by Air University Press (AUL/LP), Maxwell Air Force Base, Montgomery, Ala. "AU/ACSC/6244/2004-05." Includes bibliographical references (p. 29-30). Also available online from the Air University Research Information Management System (AURIMS) and the DTIC Online Web sites.

Thesis (M.A. in National Security Affairs)--Naval Postgraduate School, Sept. 2004. / Thesis Advisor(s): Daniel Moran. Includes bibliographical references (p. 85-90). Also available online.

Thesis (M.S.)--School of Advanced Air and Space Studies, 2008. / "June 2008." Vita. Includes bibliographical references (l. 73-77). Also available via the Internet.

Thesis (M.S. in Defense Analysis)--Naval Postgraduate School, December 2008. / Thesis Advisor(s): O'Connell, Robert. "December 2008." Description based on title screen as viewed on February 2, 2009. Includes bibliographical references (p. 43-45). Also available in print.

Thesis (M.S. in Defense Analysis)--Naval Postgraduate School, Dec. 2004. / Thesis Advisor(s): David C. Tucker. Includes bibliographical references (p. 139-143). Also available online.

Thesis (M.S. in Management)--Naval Postgraduate School, December 2002. / Thesis advisor(s): Lawrence R. Jones, Jerry L. McCaffery. Includes bibliographical references (p. 93-95). Also available online.

Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited / This thesis develops a theory to determine the best execution time to conduct a hostage rescue attempt. It does so by explaining the phenomenon of a hostage crisis biorhythm and proposing four principles essential for success. The principles of hostage rescue operations presented in this thesis and used in the biorhythm model-surprise, intelligence, operator's skill, and deception-are derived from looking at numerous planning models from special operations, from personal experience, and the thorough analysis of six historical cases. The historical cases show that in every instance any one of these four principles was overlooked, the operation was doomed. These principles have been determined to be the most critical factors that change as the crisis develops throughout the hostage ordeal. A thorough understanding of this biorhythm will provide planning guidelines to assess the best windows of opportunity for a proposed rescue attempt. One main focus of this work will be an in-depth case study of the hostage rescue operation "CHAVIN DE HUANTAR". This case study will present compelling evidence to reinforce my hypothesis, and serves as a template model for successful rescue operations. The analysis of this single case will provide a wealth of information on the success of this remarkable operation. Another main focus of this thesis will be strategic thinking of a hostage crisis using game theory analysis. The findings of this thesis will enable decision-makers to plan and organize hostage rescue forces to act at the appropriate time (window of opportunity), maximizing their chances of success. Additionally, it will provide a useful planning model that can be implemented effectively and accurately, presenting a clear picture of possible outcomes throughout a hostage crisis. Furthermore, this thesis will help the reader become a better strategist during the planning, preparation, and execution of a hostage rescue operation. It will provide a thorough understanding of how these operations work, how to solve them successfully, and how to predict possible outcomes at different stages of the operation applying the principles of game theory. / Major, United States Army

This thesis researches the elements of the art of influence in an unconventional warfare environment to develop a model of influence that can be utilized by Special Forces conducting unconventional warfare. The research was based on several premises: (1) the strategic utility of Special Forces (SF) lies in its ability to influence a target audience in an unconventional warfare (UW) environment; (2) the nature of UW necessitates a bottom up and nonkinetic approach to influence in order to have lasting effective results. Chapter II focuses on the elements of influence derived from the academic literature and from commercial and political applications of cognitive and social psychology. Chapter III examines key elements of influence derived from the Huk Rebellion in the Philippines and the Malayan Emergency. Chapter IV reviews several relevant models and uses them, along with the analysis of the key elements of influence identified in prior chapters, to develop a new grassroots influence model The results of the research are eight principles of grassroots psychological operations. The GRP model is intended to work in conjunction with or in support of other models that encompass the entire spectrum of activities in an UW conflict.

Thesis (M.S. in Defense Analysis)--Naval Postgraduate School, June 2004. / Thesis advisor(s): David Tucker. Includes bibliographical references (p. 189-198). Also available online.

Thesis (M.S. in Defense Analysis)--Naval Postgraduate School, Sept. 2004. / Thesis Advisor(s): Frank R. Giordano, Gordon H. McCormick. Includes bibliographical references (p. 179-189). Also available online.