There are many old dams in Sweden and, since few dams are constructed today, the main task in risk assessment on the existing dams is often to reduce the risk of failure. RIDAS (Swedish Guidelines on Dam Safety) is used when designing new dams and assess the existing ones. The guidelines include stability requirements for different failure modes, e.g. overturning and sliding, which imply that the load effect from e.g. uplift and ice load need to be less than the resisting loads or moments. The ice load in RIDAS is given as a deter­ministic value depending on where in Sweden the dam is located. For many years, ice and ice load have been researched, but there is still a lack of knowledge regarding the magni­tude of the ice load and how it affects the probability of failure for dams. More knowledge about the actual ice load would result in a lower calculated probability of failure for the dam which could be used to design slender dams or avoid unnecessary reinforcement of existing dams. Dam safety evaluation is often performed with deterministic methods based on safety factors. In recent years, the use of probabilistic methods in dam design has increased. The method has an advantage compared to deterministic methods in safety evaluations of existing dams, since probabilistic methods provide an answer to which parameters that have the greatest impact on the stability of the dam and take into account the variations in each parameter. I this master thesis, a statistical distribution for the variation of the ice load’s annual maxi­mum value was calculated. This was used in the analysis of the probability of failure for solid gravity concrete dams and buttress concrete dams. The probability of failure was cal­culated for dams of different sizes for overturning and sliding failure modes, and also for three different load cases; without ice load, with a truncated ice load distribution and with an ice load distribution that has not been truncated. The probabilistic stability analysis was conducted in Comrel with ice load as one of the stochastic variables. It was found which sizes of the dams that have the largest impact from the ice load; also what effect extreme values on the ice load has on the failure probability of the dam. The results indicated that the probability of failure for dams lower than 15 m is more affected by the ice load, for both failure modes analyzed. The probability of failure is reduced for all dam types when eliminating extreme values of the ice load, particularly for dams lower than 15 m. In several cases, truncation of the ice load distribution is the differ­ence between an accepted and a non-accepted level of the probability of failure. It is also shown that reduced coefficient of variance for the ice load results in a decreased probability of failure. The conclusion is that solid gravity dams and buttress dams lower than 15 m, with a high consequence class, should be risk assessed with the ice load as a stochastic vari­able. The statistical distribution of the ice load is still uncertain and the distribution used in this report should not be used globally, rather in areas with a climate similar to northern Sweden. The reason for this is that the measurements that were used to derive the global distribution were mainly performed in areas with conditions similar to those in northern Sweden. A recommendation for further research is to focus on determining statistical distributions for the ice load for southern, central and northern Sweden. An alternative is to use differ­ent ice load distributions for the different areas. Another alternative could be to use the same statistical distribution for southern, central and northern Sweden but with different values for where the ice load distribution is truncated, depending on the maximal ice thick­ness in each area. The recommendation is also to develop a reliable method for measuring the ice load. In addition, attempts should be made to determine whether extreme values on the ice load really exist or if they are effects of measurement errors. Key words: concrete dams, ice load, probabilistic stability analysis, probability of failure

The purpose has been to analyze a modelling process based on the finite element method (FEM), for a powered stacker truck of the model SPE 140 TX HILO. It was analyzed how such a model should be designed in order to perform stability analyses. This was done by analyzing which of the trucks components that were relevant from a stability perspective. These components were analyzed in order to figure out which modelling approach that was best suited to model the components in a FEM-software. The result of these analyses is a modelling methodology describing which approach that should be used during the entire modelling process of a FEM-model consisting of an entire truck.

Genom samarbete med konsultföretaget Tyréns har detta examensarbetet undersökt hur en säkrare prognos kan erhållas för bergprojektering. Till underlag undersöktes ett aktuellt projekt i Jakobshyttan, med fokus på släntstabilisering. Med avseende att identifiera de osäkerheter sompåverkar bestämmandet av bergets parametrar har parametrarnas inverkan på stabiliteten och dess kostnadseffekt på stabilisering studerats. Framtagandet av de relevanta parametrarna identifierades genom litteraturstudie, Tyréns bergtekniska prognos, relevanta handlingar för området och studiebesök på arbetsplats. Vidare utfördes en känslighetsanalys på de parametrar som var relevanta för stabilitets problematiken, för att utvärdera de kritiska gränserna för respektive parameter. För arbetet användes Barton och Bandis brottvillkor baserat på den bergtekniska informationen som fanns tillgänglig. Slutligen utfördes en kostnadsberäkning för deparametrar som identifierats med eventuella osäkerheter, för att ge perspektiv på effekten av osäkerhet. Resultatet visade att parametrarna JRC och residualfriktionsvinkel hade kraftig inverkan på stabiliteten. Parametrarnas värde bestämdes enligt föreslagen metodik från Trafikverkets handbok för bergprojektering och uppskattats genom tabeller baserade på empiriska fall. Sammanfattningsvis har den rekommenderade metodiken från Trafikverket ansetts som bristfällig och ger utrymme för felbedömningar i projekteringsskedet. / Through collaboration with the consulting company Tyréns, this thesis has investigated how a more reliable forecast can be obtained for rock design. As a basis, a current project in Jakobshyttan was investigated, focusing on slope stabilization. With regard to identifying the uncertainties that affect the determination of the rock parameters, the parameters impact on thestability and its cost effect on stabilization have been studied. The relevant parameters were identified through literature study, Tyréns forecast of rock technology, relevant documents for thearea and study visits to the workplace. Furthermore, a sensitivity analysis was performed on the parameters that were relevant to the stability problem, in order to evaluate the critical limits foreach parameter. The thesis used Barton and Bandis failure criteria based on the rock technical information that was available in the project. At last a cost calculation was performed to provide perspective on the effects of each of the parameters identified as being uncertain. The results showed that the parameters JRC and residual friction angle had a big impact on the stability. The value of the parameters was determined according to the proposed methodology from the customer, the Swedish Transport Administration, and was estimated through tables based on empirical cases. In summary, the recommended methodology from the Swedish Transport Administration has been considered deficient and leaves room for incorrect assessments in the design phase.

I Sverige finns det idag ett stort antal dammar och nära hälften av Sveriges elproduktion kommer ifrån vattenkraft. Höga säkerhetskrav ställs på dammarna då konsekvenserna av ett dammbrott kan orsaka stor ekonomisk skada både i form av minskad produktion och som uppbyggnadskostnader. Dammbrott kan även utgöra risk för skador på människor och omkringliggande miljö samt byggnader. Det finns flera dimensioneringsmetoder för att uppfylla gällande säkerhetskrav på konstruktioner. De tillämpningsvägledningar som används vid stabilitetsanalys av betongdammar baseras på gamla deterministiska metoder med säkerhetsfaktorer. Det arbetas med att ta fram nya tillämpningsvägledningar baserat på sannolikhetsbaserade metoder. De sannolikhetsbaserade metoderna tar hänsyn till osäkerheterna i enskilda variabler, vilket förväntas ge effektivare konstruktioner. Stabilitetsanalys med sannolikhetsbaserade metoder i varje enskilt fall är förmodligen det bästa ur säkerhetssynpunkt, men det kan vara väldigt tidskrävande. Ett sett att underlätta stabilitetsberäkningarna, i vanligt förekommande konstruktioner, är användandet av partialkoefficienter. Partialkoefficienter är en semi-probabilistisk metod som kan kalibreras med hjälp av tillförlitlighetsanalysen och appliceras på systemets olika variabler och parametrar. På så vis beaktas osäkerheten i enskilda variabler och parametrar bättre än i deterministiska metoder med säkerhetsfaktorer. Målet med det här examensarbetet var att undersöka om stabilitetsanalys av betongdammar med partialkoefficienter kan vara ett alternativ till de metoder som redan finns. Rapporten kan delas in i tre delar. Den första delen av rapporten beskriver teorin bakom kalibrering av partialkoefficienter med hjälp av tillförlitlighetsteori, FORM. I den andra delen beskrivs metoder och tillämpningsvägledning för stabilitetsanalys av betongdammar med probabilistiska metoder. I den tredje delen används kunskaperna från de två första delarna för att beräkna tillförlitligheten på 15 utav Sveriges dammar. Beräkningarna används sedan för att kalibrera partialkoefficienter. En del kraftiga avgränsningar har gjorts i arbetet, bland annat har beräkningarna utförts för ett statiskt lastfall och bara fokuserat på stabilitetsvillkoret för glidning. Resultatet visar att det inte är rekommenderat att använda sig av partialkoefficienter vid stabilitetsanalys, åtminstone inte med den information och kunskap som idag finns tillgänglig. Osäkerheterna kring vissa modeller och variabler behöver minskas för att partialkoefficienter skall vara ett alternativ. Teorin kring partialkoefficienter kräver även en viss likhet i konstruktioner och konstruktionselement. De dammar som användes i denna studie kan ha varit för olika för att erhålla tillfredsställande resultat med avseende på likartade partialkoefficienter. / In Sweden today there are a large number of dams and nearly half of Sweden's electricity is produced from hydropower. The safety requirements on the dams are high due to the consequences that a dam failure can cause. There are several design methods to achieve the expected safety requirements. The design guidelines used in the stability analysis of concrete dams in Sweden is based on the deterministic methods with safety factors. However, a new proposition for design guidelines based on probabilistic methods is being developed. Compared to the deterministic approach the probabilistic method takes into account the uncertainties in individual variables, which are expected to provide more efficient structures. One problem with stability analysis using probabilistic methods is that it can be very time consuming. Another method which combines the simplicity of the deterministic approach with the effectiveness of the probabilistic method is the use of partial factors. The use of partial factors is a semi-probabilistic method that can be calibrated from the reliability analysis in the probabilistic method and applied to the individual variables and parameters in the system similar to the safety factor. The aim of this thesis was to investigate if stability analysis of concrete dams with partial factors can be an alternative to the methods already available. The report can be divided into three parts. The first part of the report describes the theory behind the calibration process of partial factors using the first order reliability method, FORM. The second part describes existing Swedish methods and application guidelines for stability analysis of concrete dams. The knowledge from the first two parts is then used in order to calculate the reliability of 15 of Sweden's dams. It should be observed that the work contains some limitations, for instance only the sliding stability is studied using one static load case. The results from the calculation of this load case are then used to calibrate the partial factors. The result shows that it is not recommended to use the partial factors for stability analysis of concrete dams, at least not with the information and knowledge available today in the field. The uncertainties surrounding certain models and variables need to be reduced in order for partial factors to be an option. The theory behind partial factors requires a certain degree of uniformness when it comes to the structure or elements used. The difference among the dams analyzed in this study may have impacted the results negatively.

The present thesis studies transition to turbulence in a spatially developing bound-ary layer for subcritical Reynolds numbers. A fully nonlinear iterative direct-adjoint optimisation technique is employed to identify finite amplitude perturbations triggering transition in an energy efficient way. The study explores two approaches to find the Reynolds number scaling of the subcritical transition energy threshold Ec(Re) and the corresponding nonlinear optimum which is the minimal seed for subcritical transition to turbulence. The first approach focuses on shortened optimisation time horizons T compared to a reference case with T = 400. It is shown that the transition energy threshold Ec increases for T = 200/300 when compared to the reference value Ec,T =400. This is linked to the existence of local optima which maximise the objective functional for short transient times. These local optima are fully localised and feature the Orr and liftup energy growth mechanisms as observed for the reference case. However, their long-time evolution is suboptimal since it leads to a stable streak configuration which is found to relaminarise also for initial amplitudes of E0 > Ec,T =400. The second approach of using an inflow Reynolds number increased by factor 3/2 but non-shortened T is shown to be suitable to identify the scaling Ec(Re). Exploratory optimisation runs suggest a decrease in the transition energy threshold of at leastEc(3/2 · Re)/Ec(Re) < 0.47. / Denna avhandling studerar turbulensöverång i ett rumsligt-utvecklande gränsskikt vid subkritiska Reynolds tal. En icke-linjär iterativ direkt-adjoint optimeringsteknik implimenteras för att indentifiera perturbationer med ändlig amplitud som leder till övergång på ett energieffektivt sätt. Studien utforskar två metoder för att hitta skalningen av Reynolds numret till den subkritiska energytröskeln Ec(Re) för övergång och det tillhörande icke-linjära optimum minimal seed som leder till subkritisk turbulensövergång. Den första metoden fokuserar på förkortade optimeringstidshorisonter T jämfört med referensfallet med T = 400. Det visar sig att energitröskeln Ec ökar för T = 200/300 jämfört med referensvärdet Ec,T =400. Detta är kopplat till förekomsten av lokala optima som maximerar the objective functional för korta transienta tidsho-risonter. Dessa lokala optima är helt lokala i rummet och uppvisar samma Orr och liftup energitillväxtmekanismer som referensfallet. Utvärderingen på lång sikt visar sig dock vara suboptimal då den leder till en stabil streak konfiguration som återför även initiella perturbationsamplituder E0 > Ec,T =400 till ett laminärt tillstånd. Den andra metoden, som använder sig av Reynolds tal ökade med en faktor 3/2 men icke-förkortade tidshorisonter T , visar sig lämplig för att identifiera skalningen Ec(Re). Utforskande optimering antyder att en minskning i energitröskeln för övergång medminst Ec(3/2 · Re)/Ec(Re) < 0.47.