Thesis (Ph. D.)--University of Sydney, 2002. / Title from title screen (viewed 15 April 2008). Submitted in fulfilment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy to the Discipline of Government and International Relations, School of Economics and Politics, Faculty of Economics and Business. Degree awarded 2002; thesis submitted 2001. Includes bibliographical references. Also available in print form.

Thesis (doctoral)--Universität, Augsburg, 2006. / Includes bibliographical references (p. 369-376).

Thesis (M.A.)--State University of New York at Binghamton, Department of Political Science, 2008. / Includes bibliographical references.

Thesis (Ph. D.)--University of Wisconsin--Madison, 1968. / Vita. Typescript. eContent provider-neutral record in process. Description based on print version record. Includes bibliographical references.

Thesis (Ph.D.)--Ohio State University, 2008. / Includes bibliographical references (p. 136-147). Also available online.

This thesis explores several aspects of state and local governments' finances and its interaction with the real economy. The first chapter explores the question of what the fiscal position of local governments is and how the financial market assesses it. I find that a large share of municipalities operate with a negative net position-akin to a negative book equity position in the corporate context. I find that most of the decline in the fiscal position originates from the accumulation of legacy obligations, i.e. pensions and other post-employment benefits (OPEBs); this is recognized by municipal bond markets through higher credit spreads. While accounting values from the annual comprehensive financial reports are informative, they are based on book valuations which potentially convey limited information about the economic value of assets and liabilities. Thus, I turn to the market valuation of local governments' equity by estimating an stochastic discount factor that matches the valuation of a wide range of assets in the economy to prices future tax and expenditure claims. Using market prices for tax and expenditure claims, and market valuations of liability positions I find that the market values of equity are highly correlated with the book values. The negative equity position-in terms of book and market values-for some local governments suggests the presence of implicit insurance by state and federal governments. In the second chapter I utilize quasi-experimental variation in Connecticut to causally estimate the policy response of local governments and the migration response of residents to a large fiscal shock. I find that local governments adjust tax rates to maintain stable tax revenues; there is no change in public employment levels and limited adjustments of public services. The micro data on people's location further allows me to causally estimate the migration elasticity to a change in property tax rates. I find evidence of inter-state migration in response to an increase in property tax rates; and no statistically significant response of intra-state migration. Detailed property and location choice data reveal the elasticity of migration with regard to the property tax bill. An increase in the property tax bill by ten percent leads to an average increase in the migration propensity by about 1.5%. In the third chapter I explore the contribution of the local fiscal constraint channel on the local economy. I show that the observed general equilibrium response to local labor market shocks contains an economically important amplification effect through local financial constraints. At the center of the local fiscal constraint channel is the housing market. Local governments in the United States receive a median share of 63.13% of own source revenues from property taxes. I show that exogenous shocks to local labor markets affect the housing market and exerts fiscal pressure on local government finances. Local governments-on average-increase property taxes and cut amenities. Both policy responses affect the relative attractiveness of a location which amplifies the initial shock. I estimate a multiplier of 1.7x through this local financial constraint channel for employment.

Este estudo pretende analisar qual a relação entre os recursos gerenciais estratégicos do setor público e o desempenho dos estados brasileiros. Para tanto, assume-se que a estratégia é um dos fatores que influenciam a performance financeira e socioeconômica das unidades federativas estatais, e que a modernização da administração pública ocorrida em duas fases, estabelece uma busca pela eficiência apoiada no modelo da Nova Gestão Pública (NGP), que se utiliza desses recursos gerenciais. A pesquisa tem como fundamentação teórica a Visão Baseada em Recursos (VBR), que emprega conceitos de competitividade e desempenho no setor público para analisar os seus recursos gerenciais estratégicos como fonte de vantagem competitiva e responsáveis pelo desempenho diferenciado entre as organizações. Trata-se de estudo empírico-analítico de uma amostra de 20 estados brasileiros obtida mediante aplicação de questionário estruturado tipo survey aos Secretários de Estados das Secretarias de Administração, Planejamento, Fazenda, Receita, Educação, Saúde e Segurança dos 26 estados brasileiros. As variáveis referentes aos recursos gerenciais estratégicos foram extraídas do questionário enquanto as demais variáveis de desempenho foram obtidas da base de dados da Secretaria do Tesouro Nacional (STN), do Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística (IBGE) e do Banco Central do Brasil (BACEN). Por meio de métodos de análise multivariada de dependência (correlação canônica e análise de regressão) e de interdependência (análise de correspondência e de homogeneidade), constatou-se que quanto melhor a gestão dos sistema de informações, menor é o nível de endividamento do estado e maior sua liquidez financeira; quanto maior a visão orientada para o cidadão-usuário, maior é a despesa total per capita e o investimento em infraestrutura; os melhores indicadores orçamentários, econômicofinanceiros e de desenvolvimento social estão associados aos Estados que possuem uma boa avaliação da cultura organizacional gerencial, da visão orientada para o cidadão, do capital humano e da gestão dos sistemas de informações. / This research aims to analyze the relationship between public strategic managerial resources and Brazilian states development. Therefore, it is assumed that: (1) the strategy is one of the factors that influence the financial and socio-economic performance of federal unit; and (2) the public administration reform uses these managerial resources. The Resource Based View (RBV) is the research theoretical base. Competitiveness and performance concepts are used to analyze public strategic managerial resources as a source of competitive advantage and as responsible for the different performances among organizations. It is an empirical and analytical study of 20 Brazilian states. This sample was obtained by applying a survey to the administration, planning, finance, income, education, health and safety departments. The variables relating to strategic managerial resources have been extracted from the questionnaire while the other performance variables were obtained from the database of the National Treasury Secretariat (STN), the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE) and the Central Bank of Brazil (BACEN ). By multivariate analysis of dependence (canonical correlation and regression analyzes) and interdependence (correspondence and homogeneity analysis), this study revealed that: (1) the best information system management is related with the lower the level of debts and the higher level of financial liquidity, (2) the higher citizen-oriented view is linked with the higher the per capita total expenditure and the higher expenditure on infrastructure, (3) the higher level of the budgetary, financial, economic and social performances is associated with states that have a good evaluation on organizational culture, citizen-oriented view, human capital and information system management.

Fiscal stress is an important and recurring problem that states face. Research to date on state fiscal stress involves, predominantly, cross-sectional and case study analyses and does not address the effectiveness of state responses. Many of these studies use different definitions and measures of fiscal stress compounding the difficulty of comparing fiscal stress findings. The present research effort adds to the fiscal stress literature by (1) clarifying the meaning of fiscal stress in the state context, (2) developing a measure of fiscal stress that operationalizes this meaning and is comparable across units, and 3) using this measure analyzes patterns in and the effectiveness of state responses. Fiscal stress is measured using four indexes: budget, cash, long-run, service-level. Eleven financial indicators, calculated using data from state Comprehensive Annual Financial Reports (CAFRs), are used to create these indexes for all fifty states for the years 2002-2009. Descriptive analysis compares state fiscal stress levels (grouped into low, moderate, and high fiscal stress by cluster analysis) to state economic growth rates, state responses, and institutional factors yielding several findings. First, states do not use an incremental or punctuated equilibrium strategy in responding to fiscal stress; nor do their responses follow the pattern predicted by Cutback Management theory. Second, institutional factors affect both the levels of fiscal stress and state responses to fiscal stress. Regression analysis supports and extends these findings. First, short-term responses of expenditure cuts, tax increases, and rainy day fund use do not affect state fiscal stress levels. Second, these responses have long-term effects on fiscal stress levels. A major implication of this research is that there is very little states can do in the short-term to reduce fiscal stress. However, by balancing expenditures and revenues states can set themselves up to weather the next economic downturn with lower levels of fiscal stress.

Fiscal stress is an important and recurring problem that states face. Research to date on state fiscal stress involves, predominantly, cross-sectional and case study analyses and does not address the effectiveness of state responses. Many of these studies use different definitions and measures of fiscal stress compounding the difficulty of comparing fiscal stress findings. The present research effort adds to the fiscal stress literature by (1) clarifying the meaning of fiscal stress in the state context, (2) developing a measure of fiscal stress that operationalizes this meaning and is comparable across units, and 3) using this measure analyzes patterns in and the effectiveness of state responses. Fiscal stress is measured using four indexes: budget, cash, long-run, service-level. Eleven financial indicators, calculated using data from state Comprehensive Annual Financial Reports (CAFRs), are used to create these indexes for all fifty states for the years 2002-2009. Descriptive analysis compares state fiscal stress levels (grouped into low, moderate, and high fiscal stress by cluster analysis) to state economic growth rates, state responses, and institutional factors yielding several findings. First, states do not use an incremental or punctuated equilibrium strategy in responding to fiscal stress; nor do their responses follow the pattern predicted by Cutback Management theory. Second, institutional factors affect both the levels of fiscal stress and state responses to fiscal stress. Regression analysis supports and extends these findings. First, short-term responses of expenditure cuts, tax increases, and rainy day fund use do not affect state fiscal stress levels. Second, these responses have long-term effects on fiscal stress levels. A major implication of this research is that there is very little states can do in the short-term to reduce fiscal stress. However, by balancing expenditures and revenues states can set themselves up to weather the next economic downturn with lower levels of fiscal stress.

Fiscal stress is an important and recurring problem that states face. Research to date on state fiscal stress involves, predominantly, cross-sectional and case study analyses and does not address the effectiveness of state responses. Many of these studies use different definitions and measures of fiscal stress compounding the difficulty of comparing fiscal stress findings. The present research effort adds to the fiscal stress literature by (1) clarifying the meaning of fiscal stress in the state context, (2) developing a measure of fiscal stress that operationalizes this meaning and is comparable across units, and 3) using this measure analyzes patterns in and the effectiveness of state responses. Fiscal stress is measured using four indexes: budget, cash, long-run, service-level. Eleven financial indicators, calculated using data from state Comprehensive Annual Financial Reports (CAFRs), are used to create these indexes for all fifty states for the years 2002-2009. Descriptive analysis compares state fiscal stress levels (grouped into low, moderate, and high fiscal stress by cluster analysis) to state economic growth rates, state responses, and institutional factors yielding several findings. First, states do not use an incremental or punctuated equilibrium strategy in responding to fiscal stress; nor do their responses follow the pattern predicted by Cutback Management theory. Second, institutional factors affect both the levels of fiscal stress and state responses to fiscal stress. Regression analysis supports and extends these findings. First, short-term responses of expenditure cuts, tax increases, and rainy day fund use do not affect state fiscal stress levels. Second, these responses have long-term effects on fiscal stress levels. A major implication of this research is that there is very little states can do in the short-term to reduce fiscal stress. However, by balancing expenditures and revenues states can set themselves up to weather the next economic downturn with lower levels of fiscal stress.