Prediction of energy load profiles is an important topic in Smart Grid technologies. Accurate forecasts can lead to reduced costs and decreased dependency on commercial power suppliers by adapting to prices on energy market, efficient utilisation of solar and wind energy and sophisticated load scheduling. This thesis compares various statistical and machine learning models and their ability to forecast load profile for an entire day divided into 48 half-hour intervals. Additionally, we examine various preprocessing methods and their influence on the accuracy of the models. We also compare a variety of imputation methods that are designed to reconstruct missing observation commonly present in energy consumption data.

Periodically correlated time series generally exist in several fields including hydrology, climatology, economics and finance, and are commonly modelled using periodic autoregressive (PAR) model. For a time series with stochastic periodic trend, for which a unit root is expected, a periodically integrated autoregressive PIAR model with periodic and/or seasonal unit root has been shown to be a satisfactory model. The existing theory used the multivariate methodology to study PIAR models. However, this theory is convoluted, majority of it only developed for quarterly time series and its generalisation to time series with larger number of periods is quite cumbersome. This thesis studies the existing theory and highlights its restrictions and flaws. It provides a coherent presentation of the steps for analysing PAR and PIAR models for different number of periods. It presents the different unit roots representations and compares the performance of different unit root tests available in literature. The restrictions of existing studies gave us the impetus to develop a unified theory that gives a clear understanding of the integration and unit roots in the periodic models. This theory is based on the spectral information of the multi-companion matrix of the periodic models. It is more general than the existing theory, since it can be applied to any number of periods whereas the existing methods are developed for quarterly time series. Using the multi-companion method, we specify and estimate the periodic models without the need to extract complicated restrictions on the model parameters corresponding to the unit roots, as required by NLS method. The multi-companion estimation method performed well and its performance is equivalent to the NLS estimation method that has been used in the literature. Analysing integrated multivariate models is a problematic issue in time series. The multi-companion theory provides a more general approach than the error correction method that is commonly used to analyse such time series. A modified state state representation for the seasonal periodically integrated autoregressive (SPIAR) model with periodic and seasonal unit roots is presented. Also an alternative state space representations from which the state space representations of PAR, PIAR and the seasonal periodic autoregressive (SPAR) models can be directly obtained is proposed. The seasons of the parameters in these representations have been clearly specified, which guarantees correct estimated parameters. Kalman filter have been used to estimate the parameters of these models and better estimation results are obtained when the initial values were estimated rather than when they were given.

The present work introduces a methodology to obtain a discrete time state space representation of an electrical network using the nodal [G] matrix of the Electromagnetic Transients Program (EMTP) solution. This is the first time the connection between the EMTP nodal analysis solution and a corresponding state-space formulation is presented. Compared to conventional state space solutions, the nodal EMTP solution is computationally much more efficient. Compared to the phasor solutions used in transient stability analysis, the proposed approach captures a much wider range of eigenvalues and system operating states. A fundamental advantage of extracting the system eigenvalues directly from the EMTP solution is the ability of the EMTP to follow the characteristics of nonlinearities. The system's trajectory can be accurately traced and the calculated eigenvalues and eigenvectors correctly represent the system's instantaneous dynamics. In addition, the algorithm can be used as a tool to identify network partitioning subsystems suitable for real-time hybrid power system simulator environments, including the implementation of multi-time scale solutions. The proposed technique can be implemented as an extension to any EMTP-based simulator. Within our UBC research group, it is aimed at extending the capabilities of our real-time PC-cluster Object Virtual Network Integrator (OVNI) simulator. / Applied Science, Faculty of / Electrical and Computer Engineering, Department of / Graduate

abstract: This dissertation presents a novel algorithm for recovering missing values of co-evolving time series with partial embedded network information. The idea is to connect two sources of data through a shared low dimensional latent space. The proposed algorithm, named NetDyna, is an Expectation-Maximization algorithm, and uses the Kalman filter and matrix factorization approaches to infer the missing values both in the time series and embedded network. The experimental results on real datasets, including a Motes dataset and a Motion Capture dataset, show that (1) NetDyna outperforms other state-of-the-art algorithms, especially with partially observed network information; (2) its computational complexity scales linearly with the time duration of time series; and (3) the algorithm recovers the embedded network in addition to missing time series values. This dissertation also studies a load balancing algorithm, the so called power-of-two-choices(Po2), for many-server systems (with N servers) and focuses on the convergence of stationary distribution of Po2 in the both light and heavy traffic regimes to the solution of mean-field system. The framework of Stein’s method and state space collapse (SSC) are used to analyze both regimes. In both regimes, the thesis first uses the argument of state space collapse to show that the probability of the state being far from the mean-field solution is small enough. By a simple Markov inequality, it is able to show that the probability is indeed very small with a proper choice of parameters. Then, for the state space close to the solution of mean-field model, the thesis uses Stein’s method to show that the stochastic system is close to a linear mean-field model. By characterizing the generator difference, it is able to characterize the dominant terms in both regimes. Note that for heavy traffic case, the lower and upper bound analysis of a tridiagonal matrix, which arises from the linear mean-field model, is needed. From the dominant term, it allows to calculate the coefficient of the convergence rate. In the end, comparisons between the theoretical predictions and numerical simulations are presented. / Dissertation/Thesis / Doctoral Dissertation Electrical Engineering 2020

Bird migration is a poorly-known yet important phenomenon, as understanding movement patterns of birds can inform conservation strategies and public health policy for animal-borne diseases. Recent advances in wildlife tracking technology, in particular the Motus system, have allowed researchers to track even small flying birds and insects with radio transmitters that weigh fractions of a gram. This system relies on a community-based distributed sensor network that detects tagged animals as they move through the detection nodes on journeys that range from small local movements to intercontinental migrations. The quantity of data generated by the Motus system is unprecedented, is on its way to surpass the size of all other centralized databases of animal detection and requires novel statistical methods. Building from the bsam package in R, I propose two new biologically informed Bayesian state-space models for animal movement in JAGS that include informed assumptions about songbird behavior. I evaluate the models using a simulation study in realistic conditions of data missingness. One of these models is generalized to a hierarchical version that fits population-level movement through joint estimation of movement parameters over multiple animal tracks. To apply the models, I then employ a localization routine on a Motus data set from migrating songbirds (Red-eyed Vireos - Vireo olivaceus) from the Eastern coast of North America. This allows me to apply the new hierarchical model and its predecessor to estimate unobserved locations and behaviors. Migratory flights were observed to occur mostly in the evenings along the coast and directed migratory flights were detected over water over e.g. the Bay of Fundy, the Long Island Sound and the New York Bight. Area-restricted searches were confined to coastal areas, in particular the Gulf of Maine, Long Island and Cape May.

Longitudinal assessments are crucial in evaluating the disease state and trajectory in patients of neurodegenerative diseases. Neuropsychological outcomes measured over time often have a non-linear trajectory with autocorrelated residuals and skewed distributions. Due to these issues, statistical analysis and interpretation involving longitudinal cognitive outcomes can be a difficult and controversial task, thus hindering most convenient transformations (e.g. logarithmic) to avoid the assumption violations of common statistical modelling techniques. We propose the Adjusted Local Linear Trend (ALLT) model, an extended state space model in lieu of the commonly-used linear mixed-effects model (LMEM) in modeling longitudinal neuropsychological outcomes. Our contributed model has the capability to utilize information from the stochasticity of the data while accounting for subject-specific trajectories with the inclusion of covariates and unequally-spaced time intervals. The first step of model fitting involves a likelihood maximization step to estimate the unknown variances in the model before parsing these values into the Kalman Filter and Kalman Smoother recursive algorithms. Results from simulation studies showed that the ALLT model is able to attain lower bias, lower standard errors and high power, particularly in short longitudinal studies with equally-spaced time intervals, as compared to the LMEM. The ALLT model also outperforms the LMEM when data is missing completely at random (MCAR), missing at random (MAR) and, in certain cases, even in data with missing not at random (MNAR). In terms of model selection, likelihood-based inference is applicable for the ALLT model. Although a Chi-Square distribution with k degrees of freedom, where k is the number of parameter lost during estimation, was not the asymptotic distribution in the case of ALLT, we were able to derive an asymptotic distribution approximation of the likelihood ratio test statistics using the power transformation method for the utility of a Gaussian distribution to facilitate model selections for ALLT. In light of these findings, we believe that our proposed model will shed light into longitudinal data analysis not only in the neuropsychological data realm but also on a broader scale for statistical analysis of longitudinal data. / 2023-10-05T00:00:00Z

Aim of this thesis is building of a simulator model of a rotary (Furuta) pendulum and design of appropriate regulators. This paper describes assembly of a nonlinear simulator model, using Matlab–Simulink and its library Simscape–Simmechanics. Furthermore the paper discuss linear discrete model obtained from the system response, using least squares method. This linear model serves as aproximation of the system for designing of two linear discrete state space regulators with sumator. These regulators are supported by a simple swing–up regulator and logics managing cooperation.

This work deals with multi-rotor helicopters, known as copters. The first part is a review of existing solutions, and an appropriate platform for use as aerial reconnaissance vehicle is chosen. In the next part a mathematical model of copter is created and its parameters are estimated. Based on this model a state-space controller for control system is designed. This is then tested on the created model and implemented in real copter.

This thesis deals with the packet classification problem in computer networks. It introduces packet classification along with the demands on classification algorithms. Different approaches to packet classification and several concrete examples of modern classification algorithms with their properties are described. The aim is on algorithms which can be implemented in hardware. Crossproduct-based algorithms are described in more detail whose biggest advantage is classification speed, but their disadvantage consists in great memory requirements. Several optimization methods based on state space search are presented. These optimization methods are based on reduction of original ruleset by selecting a small number of rules to associative memory. Lastly, utilization of associative memory as a flexible part of classification is illustrated together with the potential hardware implementation of such memory directly on a chip.

abstract: This dissertation studies load balancing algorithms for many-server systems (with N servers) and focuses on the steady-state performance of load balancing algorithms in the heavy traffic regime. The framework of Stein’s method and (iterative) state-space collapse (SSC) are used to analyze three load balancing systems: 1) load balancing in the Sub-Halfin-Whitt regime with exponential service time; 2) load balancing in the Beyond-Halfin-Whitt regime with exponential service time; 3) load balancing in the Sub-Halfin-Whitt regime with Coxian-2 service time. When in the Sub-Halfin-Whitt regime, the sufficient conditions are established such that any load balancing algorithm that satisfies the conditions have both asymptotic zero waiting time and zero waiting probability. Furthermore, the number of servers with more than one jobs is o(1), in other words, the system collapses to a one-dimensional space. The result is proven using Stein’s method and state space collapse (SSC), which are powerful mathematical tools for steady-state analysis of load balancing algorithms. The second system is in even “heavier” traffic regime, and an iterative refined procedure is proposed to obtain the steady-state metrics. Again, asymptotic zero delay and waiting are established for a set of load balancing algorithms. Different from the first system, the system collapses to a two-dimensional state-space instead of one-dimensional state-space. The third system is more challenging because of “non-monotonicity” with Coxian-2 service time, and an iterative state space collapse is proposed to tackle the “non-monotonicity” challenge. For these three systems, a set of load balancing algorithms is established, respectively, under which the probability that an incoming job is routed to an idle server is one asymptotically at steady-state. The set of load balancing algorithms includes join-the-shortest-queue (JSQ), idle-one-first(I1F), join-the-idle-queue (JIQ), and power-of-d-choices (Pod) with a carefully-chosen d. / Dissertation/Thesis / Doctoral Dissertation Electrical Engineering 2019