This diploma thesis deals with the topic of development of Chinese stock markets and their connection to the stock markets in the USA. The primary purpose of this research is to investigate, through a historical analysis, this rather untraditional development. The other objective of this study is to clarify the reasons of such a fast development and, with the help of results of other used analyses, assess to what extent the following stock markets are influenced by each other. This part of the study focuses mainly on the development of mutual dependence between the Shanghai and the New York stock market and on predictions of the future development of Chinese stock markets, using several other economic variables of the USA markets. This diploma thesis also aims to analyze the position of China in holding of American bonds, as well as to define the motives of their purchase and describe the possible impacts of their sudden sale by the Chinese government.

This master´s thesis deals with testing the efficiency of capital markets. The subject to verification of the stock markets of Austria, Hungary, Germany, Great Britain, Czech Republic and Poland during the 2006-2016Q1. The aim of this work is to test the weak formo f efficiency in these markets. The hypothesis was tested using the ACF test ADF and KPSS tests, variance ratio test, run test and test of January effect.

This work is dealing with portfolio optimization of stocks available on Czech RM-SYSTEM stock. The optimization is done by multiple criteria decision. In first two chapters there are description of theory of capital market, stock market and stock markets which are on Czech market. The practical part is the main important part of the work. The practical part deals with optimization of portfolio of stocks which are available on Czech stock market. Main goal of this work is to show possibility of creating portfolio of stocks by multiple criteria decision methods.

Stock market investors are making investment decisions in an information-rich environment. In their attempt to afford investors all the decision-relevant information, standard setters are continually adding to the already weighty load seemingly oblivious to the cognitive limitations of humans. Information overload has long been recognized as a problem to decision-makers. The information overload literature is robust with studies supporting the inverted U hypothesis: Decision accuracy will increase with additional information to the point of maximum processing capability, then decline. The decision style literature has supported the theory that individuals can be classified according to the quantity of information that they are able to process effectively. This study combined the two theories to develop hypotheses about how investors with differing decision styles might behave differently in an information-rich environment. The hypotheses were tested in an internet-based stock market investment experiment. In general, the study did not find significant differences in the decisions of investors with different decision styles. Though the results of the experiment failed to support most of the hypotheses, the study revealed some interesting facts about the investors who participated in this study. There was an unusually high concentration of the analytic decision style in this group. This style, according to the theory, is the one best able to manage high information processing demands. A further analysis of the respondent style dominance reveals that all of the styles had significant analytic influence. This could explain the lack of variation in the decision accuracy of the respondents. It is also possible that the respondents in this study did not reach a point of information overload. Based on prior literature, the study incorporated ten information items. However, the particular items selected may not have created a sense of information overload for the respondents. Future research should increase the information available to respondents and observe whether differences in decisions can be explained by differences in decision styles in an information overload situation. This study provides a baseline for future studies examining how investors make decisions when so much information is available.

This paper analyzes the impact of political expectations on the returns of Peru’s stock market using information pertaining to the the electoral periods of 1995 and 2000. The main variable is a measure of the probability that a candidate will win the elections. Therefore, the hypothesis to be proven is whether the uncertainty of the election results affects Peru’s stock market returns. We use other alternative variables such as the exchange rate, inflation, and terms of trade. The results show that for the first period of the analysis (1995), the probability that the candidate Fujimori would win the elections positively affected stock market returns. On the other hand, for the period of 2000, the above-mentioned variable changed, implying a loss of electoral appeal on thepart of the candidate Fujimori. Furthermore, the evidence of corruption uncovered at the time contributed to an explanation of the result’s importance. The results also show the importance ofother macroeconomic variables in the estimations. / El presente documento analiza el impacto de las expectativas políticas (medida como la probabilidad de que un candidato gane las elecciones) sobre los retornos del índice general de la Bolsa de Valores de Lima (IGBVL) utilizando información para los períodos electorales de 1995 y 2000. La hipótesis a verificar es si el grado de incertidumbre sobre el resultado de las elecciones presidenciales afecta los retornos del IGBVL. Se usan otras variables explicativas como el tipo de cambio, la inflación, y los términos de intercambio. Los resultados muestran que para el primer período de análisis (1995) la probabilidad de que el candidato Fujimori gane las elecciones tuvo un signo positivo sobre el rendimiento del IGBVL mientras que para el período 2000, el signo de dicha variable cambia, siendo en ambos casos estadísticamente significativos.

O foco deste trabalho refere-se ao fluxo e à gestão do sistema de informações do Programa Bolsa Alimentação, implantado pela Secretaria Municipal de Saúde de São José dos Campos. Buscou-se mapear os pontos de uso da informação, identificando as necessidades e requisitos do programa, bem como a coleta e avaliação da informação solicitada, seu recebimento, possível armazenamento e as etapas de distribuição de uso para controle do sistema. Considerou-se a compreensão do papel da informação como parte do processo de gestão e da tomada de decisão. Este trabalho caracteriza-se como uma pesquisa descritiva, cujo sentido é retratar como se processa o fluxo de informação do programa e suas dificuldades. Na metodologia, foram utilizadas múltiplas técnicas de coleta de dados, tanto de natureza quantitativa quanto qualitativa e, para isso, recorreu-se a documentos de registros públicos, bancos de dados dos órgãos que operam o programa, entrevistas com gestores e questionários com usuários. Os resultados apontam para dificuldades na gestão das informações que dificultam ou impedem a eficácia do programa. Com a escolha e uso das ferramentas analisadoras revelaram, qualitativamente, o modo de operar o cotidiano; os produtos e resultados alcançados e os princípios ético-políticos que nortearam as ações, constituindo instrumento de aprimoramento da gestão para os trabalhadores e gerências locais. / The focus of this work is refered to the flow and the management of the system of information of the Program Stock market Feeding (Programa Bolsa Alimentação), implanted for the City department of Health of São José dos Campos. This study surveyed the points of use of the information, in order to identify the necessities and requirements of the program, as well as the collection and evaluation of the requested information, its act of receiving, possible storage and the stages of distribution of use for control of the system. The understanding of the paper of the information was considered as taking part of the management process and the management of decision. This work was characterized as a descriptive research, whose purpose is to give a view of the processes of the flow of information of this city program and its difficulties. In the used methodology, multiple techniques of collection of data had been used, as much of quantitative nature as well qualitative nature, and for this documents of public registers, data bases of the agencies that operate the program, interviews with managers and questionnaires with users were searched. The results point with respect to difficulties in the management of the information that avoid or create difficulties to the effectiveness of this city program. With the choice and use of the analytical tools, this study showed qualitatively the way how to operate the daily necessities, the products and the reached results, the principles ethical-politicians which had guided the action, constituting instrument of improvement of the management for the workers and local managements.

There is an ongoing trade war between the two largest economies in the world. Since the trade war is still ongoing, few studies have been done to investigate how it affects the global economy. The purpose of this thesis is to analyze the trade war’s effect on the Swedish stock market between the 2nd of March 2018 when U.S. president Donald Trump first threatened to impose tariffs on Chinese imports to the 15th of January 2020 when the phase one deal was signed. Data is collected from Donald Trump’s official twitter account and by statements from the U.S. and Chinese governments. An event study is then made by using the market model to find abnormal returns for different sectors and stocks on OMXS large cap. The study shows that the sectors react differently to the announcements. Some sectors were not affected at all and others were heavily affected. Telecommunication is a sector that had an average cumulative abnormal return close to zero both when there was positive news and negative news about the trade war. Contrarily, a sector that seems to be highly correlated to the news about the trade war is the Technology sector. Basic Resources is the most affected sector in the study when bad news occurred. From our study, we can conclude that the Swedish stock market is affected by the trade war.

Technical analysis as a sophisticated form of forecasting technique has a varying popularity in the academic and business world. In the past, users were sceptical about technical trading rules and their performance. This is substantiated by the acceptance of the Efficient Market Hypothesis and mixed empirical findings about technical analysis in widely cited studies. The flag pattern is seen as one of the most significant spread chart patterns amongst stock market charting analysts. The present research validates a trading rule based on the further development of flag pattern recognition. The research question concentrates on whether technical analysis applying the flag pattern can outperform international stock markets indices and prove the inefficiency of these markets. The markets observed are represented by the corresponding indices DAX (Germany), DJIA (United States) and IBEX (Spain). The design of the trading rule presents several changes with respect to previous academic works: The wide sample used when considering intraday data, together with the confiuration of some of the variables and the consideration of risk, concludes that the trading rule provides greater positive risk-adjusted returns than the buy-and-hold strategy which is used as a benchmark. The reported positive results strengthen the robustness of the conclusions reached by other researchers. / El análisis técnico es una forma sofisticada de técnica de predicción cuya popularidad ha ido variando en el mundo académico y de los negocios. En el pasado, los usuarios eran bastante escépticos respecto de las reglas técnicas de trading y su performance. Todo esto, se encuentra sustentado por la aceptación de la hipótesis del mercado eficiente y descubrimientos empíricos mixtos sobre el análisis técnico, que se mencionan en un número amplio de estudios. El patrón bandera es visto como uno de los patrones gráficos más significativo y difundido entre los analistas técnicos de mercado. El presente estudio valida una regla de trading basada en el desarrollo futuro del reconocimiento gráfico del patrón bandera. La pregunta de investigación se centra en si el análisis técnico basado en el patrón bandera puede batir los índices internacionales de mercado y probar, de esta manera, la ineficiencia de dichos mercados. Los mercados observados son representados por los correspondientes índices DAX (Alemania), DJIA (Estados Unidos) e IBEX (España). El diseño de la regla de trading presenta varios cambios y novedades con respecto a trabajos académicos previos. La amplia muestra usada al considerar los datos intradía, junto con la configuración de algunas variables y la consideración del riesgo, confirman que la regla de trading proporciona mejores, y más ajustadas al riesgo, rentabilidades positivas que la estrategia de buy-and-hold que se utiliza como referencia. Los resultados positivos corroboran la robustez de las conclusiones a las que también se llegan en otros trabajos. / L'anàlisi tècnica és una forma sofisticada de tècnica de predicció, la popularitat de la qual ha anat variant al món acadèmic i dels negocis. En el passat, els usuaris eren bastant escèptics respecte de les regles tècniques de trading i la seva performance. Tot això, es troba sustentat per l'acceptació de la hipòtesi del mercat eficient i descobriments empírics mixts sobre l'anàlisi tècnica, que s'esmenten en un nombre ampli d'estudis. El patró bandera és vist com un dels patrons gràfics més significatiu i difós entre els analistes tècnics de mercat. El present estudi valida una regla de trading basada en el desenvolupament futur del reconeixement gràfic del patró bandera. La pregunta de recerca se centra en si l'anàlisi tècnica basada en el patró bandera pot batre els índexs internacionals de mercat i provar, d'aquesta manera, la ineficiència d'aquests mercats. Els mercats observats són representats pels corresponents índexs DAX (Alemanya), *DJIA (Estats Units) i IBEX (Espanya). El disseny de la regla de trading presenta diversos canvis i novetats pel que fa a treballs acadèmics previs. L'àmplia mostra usada en considerar les dades intradia, juntament amb la configuració d'algunes variables i la consideració del risc, confirmen que la regla de trading proporciona millors, i més ajustades al risc, rendibilitats positives que l'estratègia de buy-and-hold que s'utilitza com a referència. Els resultats positius corroboren la robustesa de les conclusions a les quals també s'arriben en altres treballs. / Michniuk, K. (2017). PATTERN RECOGNITION APPLIED TO CHART ANALYSIS. EVIDENCE FROM INTRADAY INTERNATIONAL STOCK MARKETS [Tesis doctoral no publicada]. Universitat Politècnica de València. https://doi.org/10.4995/Thesis/10251/78837 / TESIS

This article goes on to explain and seek if there is any predictive power in the stock markets toward GDP. Put in other words, this study examines whether or not the stock market can be seen as a leading indicator toward GDP for the ten biggest economies measured by GDP in the year 2020. What can be concluded from the results discussed in the analysis section is that the best predictability is when the stock market leads GDP with three to five quarters. In earlier studies on the same topic, the same results can be concluded. However, these previous studies have all shown an extended predictive period between one and five quarters, compared to our results which showed three to five quarters. One note worth mentioning is that we obtained contradictory results depending on if the tests were implemented for each country individually through time series data analysis, or collectively through panel data analysis. Our conclusion was drawn with the panel data analysis as the underlying truth, as it is viewed as more efficient and informative while also being a more suitable tool for studying the dynamics of change.

This diploma thesis focuses on the problem and subsequent application of selected methods of artificial intelligence used on stock markets – especially the use of a artificial neural networks to forecast the values and determination of the trend of investment instruments. Solutions are created by using Matlab development environment and subsequently evaluated.