Water scarcity is a problem that will be exacerbated by climate change. Being able to model the effect of climate change on water scarcity is important to effectively plan the use of future water resources. This research integrated the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT), climate model, and water footprint analysis to measure the impact of climate change on future water scarcity. This was achieved through two objectives. The first objective was to create a modeling framework that links the output from climate model to SWAT and combined streamflow outputs from SWAT with water footprint analysis to measure how climate change will impact water scarcity of a river basin. This was accomplished through creating a SWAT model within ArcMap and inputting a topographic, soil, land use, and weather data. Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR) data were used in lieu of observed weather data due to a lack of available data. SWAT-CUP (Calibration and Uncertainty Program) was used to calibrate two upstream streamflow gauges, then calibrate and validate a third streamflow gauge at the outlet of the Senqu basin in Lesotho. The two upstream streamflow gauges were calibrated from 1986 to 2002. The downstream streamflow gauge was calibrated from 1985 to 2002 and validated from 2003 to 2013. Three Regional Climate Models (RCM), ICHEC-EC-EARTH, MIROC-MIROC5, and CCCma-CanESM2 were downloaded from the Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) dataset. Each RCM was downloaded with two different Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP), RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5. The RCMs were bias corrected using a cumulative distribution function mapping technique. These RCMs as well as an average of the RCMs were used as input for the SWAT model to generate future streamflow outputs. The streamflow outputs provide the future blue water availability of the Senqu River. The results showed an overall decrease in streamflow in both RCPs. The second objective was to apply the framework to Lesotho and use the information from the ArcSWAT model and data from the Blue Water Footprint analysis to measure the future potential Blue Water Scarcity of Lesotho. This was accomplished through the Blue Water Footprint of Lesotho generated from the 5th National Blue Footprint analysis. The annual blue water scarcity was calculated as the ratio of the Blue Water Available to Blue Water Footprint. Three approaches were adopted to analyze the water scarcity of Lesotho. The first approach used the national Blue Water Footprint in the water scarcity calculation to investigate the worst-case scenario. The second approach used the modified blue water footprint based on the population living within the Senqu river basin. The third approach used a modified blue water footprint that accounted for the projected population growth of Lesotho. The results of scenario 1 showed there was moderate water scarcity in a period of four years in climate scenario of RCP8.5. The results of scenario 3 showed there were multiple cases of water scarcity in both RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 with two years of severe water scarcity. This research is limited by data availability and the results for Lesotho could be improved by accurate dam data and the fine scale water footprint analysis. The modeling framework integrating climate model, hydrology, and water footprint analysis, however, can be applied to other remote places where limited data are available.

Tennessee Valley surface water is important to economic and population growth in the southeastern United States. By expanding streamflow records, water planners and managers can make decisions based on hydrologic events not appearing in current instrumental records. In the following research, monthly flow data from six USGS streamflow gages on the Clinch, Emory, Holston, and Nolichucky Rivers is used to create seasonal and annual streamflow seasons. Approximately 70 tree-ring chronologies across the Southeast U.S. are prescreened by length and correlation analysis against 38 streamflow seasons revealing that the May-June-July (MJJ) streamflow period displays the best tree-ring climate signal. The screened chronologies are then entered into stepwise linear regression, and R2 values for the six models range from 0.36 to 0.52. Reconstruction models range indicate estimation errors due to multicollinearity of the streamflow and tree-ring chronology datasets are minimal. The Durbin-Watson statistics indicate the model residuals do not autocorrelate, except for the Nolichucky River streamflow model, which may possess serial correlation. The positive values of the RE parameter indicate each of the models have statistical skill, and the RMSE parameter provides error ranges equal to 18 to 44% of the average observed instrumental flows. Based on the results, three gages, the Nolichucky, NF Holston, and SF Holston, were deemed acceptable. These models represent the first statistically skillful streamflow reconstructions in the Tennessee Valley. The reconstructions range from 209 to 295 years in length ending in 1980 and extending as far back as 1686. Examination of the reconstructions shows extreme drought in the 1770s. The wettest periods occurred from the 1970s to the mid-2000s. Other severe drought events occurred in the 1700s, the 1840s, and the early 1910s proving current records do not provide full accounts of Tennessee Valley streamflow variability.

Thesis (Ph.D.)--University of Nebraska-Lincoln, 2006. / Title from title screen (site viewed on Feb. 6, 2007). PDF text: xii, 196 p. : ill., maps. UMI publication number: AAT 3220344. Includes bibliographical references. Also available in microfilm and microfiche format.

A forested first-order catchment in western Amazonia was monitored for 2 years to determine the chemical fingerprints of precipitation, throughfall, overland flow, pipe flow, soil water, groundwater, and streamflow. We used five tracers (hydrogen, calcium, magnesium, potassium, and silica) to distinguish “fast” flow paths mainly influenced by the biological subsystem from “slow” flow paths in the geochemical subsystem. The former comprise throughfall, overland flow, and pipe flow and are characterized by a high potassium/silica ratio; the latter are represented by soil water and groundwater, which have a low potassium/silica ratio. Soil water and groundwater differ with respect to calcium and magnesium. The groundwater-controlled streamflow chemistry is strongly modified by contributions from fast flow paths during precipitation events. The high potassium/silica ratio of these flow paths suggests that the storm flow response at La Cuenca is dominated by event water.

Extreme rainfall events and consequent floods are being observed more frequently in the Western Black Sea region in Turkey as climate changes. In this study, application of a flood early warning system is intended by using and calibrating a combined model system. A regional-scale hydro-meteorological model system, consisting of Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, NOAH land surface model and fully distributed NOAH-Hydro hydrologic models, is used for simulations of 25 heavy-rainfall and major flooding events observed in the Western Black Sea region between years 2000 and 2011. The performance of WRF model system in simulating precipitation is tested with 3-dimensional variational (3DVAR) data assimilation scheme. WRF-derived precipitation with and without data assimilation and Multi Precipitation Estimates (MPE) are used in NOAH-Hydro model to simulate streamflow for flood events. Statistical precipitation analyses show that WRF model with 3DVAR improved precipitation up to 12% with respect to no-assimilation. MPE algorithm generally underestimates rainfall and it also showed lower performance than WRF model with and without data assimilation. Depending on reliability of precipitation inputs, NOAH-Hydro model produces reasonable flood hydrographs both in structure and volume. After model calibration is performed using assimilated precipitation inputs in Bartin Basin, NOAH-Hydro model reduced the average error in streamflow by 23.24% and 53.57% with calibration for testing events. With calibrated parameters, NOAH-Hydro model forced by WRF non-assimilated precipitation input also reduced the error in streamflow but with lower rates (16.67% and 40.72%). With a proper model calibration and reliable precipitation inputs, hydrologic modeling system is capable of simulating flood events.

In many parts of the world, developed as well as developing, rivers are not gauged for continuous monitoring. Streamflow prediction at such "ungauged" river catchments requires information transfer from gauged catchments that are perceived to be hydrologically similar to them. Achieving good predictability at ungauged catchments requires an in-depth understanding of the physical and climatic controls on hydrologic similarity among catchments. This dissertation attempts to gain a better understanding of these controls through three independent research studies that use data from catchments across the continental United States. In the first study, I explore whether streamflow similarity among nearby catchments is preserved across flow conditions. Catchments located across four river basins in the northeast United States are analyzed to quantify the spatio-temporal variability in streamflows across flow percentiles. Results show that similarity in catchment stream response is dynamic and highly dependent on flow conditions. Specifically, the coefficient of variation is high at low flow percentiles and gradually reduces for higher flow percentiles. This study concludes that high variability at low flows is controlled by the dominance of high evaporative demand, whereas low variability at high flows is controlled by the dominance of precipitation input relative to evapotranspiration. In the second study, I examine whether streamflow similarity among catchments exists across a wide range of climatic and geographic regions. Data from 756 catchments across the United States is used and daily streamflow at each catchment is simulated using distance-based streamflow interpolation from neighboring catchments. With this approach, high predictability at a catchment indicates that catchments in its vicinity have similar streamflows. Results show that high predictability catchments are mainly confined to the Appalachian Mountains, the Rocky Mountains, and Cascade Mountains in the Pacific Northwest. Low predictability catchments are located mostly in the drier regions of US to the west of Mississippi river. Results suggest that streamflow similarity among nearby catchments is more likely in humid runoff-dominated regions than in dry evapotranspiration-dominated regions. In the third study, my goal is to identify what constitutes the essential information that must be transferred from gauged to ungauged catchments in order to achieve good model predictability. A simple daily time-step rainfall-runoff model is developed and implemented over 756 catchments located across the United States. Results show that the rainfall-runoff model simulates well at catchments in humid low-energy environments, most of which are located in the eastern part of the US, the Rocky Mountains, and to the west of Cascade Mountains. Within these regions, transfer of the parameter characterizing hydrograph recession provides reliable streamflow predictions at ungauged catchments, with a loss in prediction efficiency of less than 10% in most catchments. The results presented in this dissertation show that climate exerts a strong control on hydrologic similarity among catchments. The results further suggest that an understanding of the interaction between climate and topography is essential for quantifying the spatial variability in catchment hydrologic behavior at a regional scale.

An archival-stratigraphic investigation of the middle Gila River provides insights into late-Holocene channel behavior and flood-plain formation. Historical records detail changes in channel patterns that correlate with changing frequency of large floods, but channel sensitivity is also affected by factors such as flood seasonality, changes in sediment load, human disturbances, and internal thresholds. Because the frequency of large floods is the dominant factor in channel changes, radiocarbon-dated flood deposits in late-Holocene alluvial terraces allow for a reconstruction of prehistoric channel behavior. A period of reduced large flood frequency and channel stability 4,000-1,000 years BP separates periods of increased large flood frequency and channel instability 5,000-4,000 and 1,000-0 years BP. Transformations between braided and single channel morphologies affect the conveyance of floods and change the spatial characteristics of flood hazards. These channel dynamics are also important in analyzing changes in Hohokam-Pima irrigation technology and settlement patterns.

Over the last decade, millions of acres of western North American forest have been reduced to areas of standing dead trees following eruptions in bark beetle populations. This thesis provides up-to-date information on streamflow response to the recent bark beetle outbreak in subalpine forests of the Colorado Rockies. Streamflow and climate measures are evaluated in eight central Colorado catchments with long-term data records and varying levels of beetle outbreak. No detectable streamflow change is observed in 7 of 8 highly impacted catchments. A significant reduction in streamflow is observed in 1 highly impacted catchment and is likely driven by tree mortality and record warm temperatures. These findings deviate from expected results and have important implications for vegetation and streamflow change under a warmer climate.

Hydroclimatic variability in the western United States (the West) is characterized by a north-south dipole pattern of precipitation and streamflow variance, with centers of opposite association in the Pacific Northwest and the Desert Southwest. These dipole centers tend to react in opposite fashion to tropical Pacific Ocean conditions, and the resulting contrast in precipitation variability is an important component of Western climate. Teleconnection impacts are not as well understood in the transition zone separating the centers of opposite association, located primarily within the semi-arid Intermountain West. This leads to low hydroclimatic predictive capacity in the transition zone region, an area that is extremely important for water supply in the West. In this dissertation, I examine paleohydroclimatic variability in this region using dendrochronology, investigate recent variability through a synoptic climatology approach, and assess future conditions based on climate change projections.Overall, this dissertation's findings confirm that the transition zone region is highly vulnerable to extremes in hydroclimatic variability and underscore the need for improved predictive capacity in the region. In the Snake River headwaters, low- to mid-elevation Pseudotsuga menziesii trees are the strongest recorders of winter precipitation, a vital component of water supply, and the season of precipitation impacting growth is a major component of the overall variability between tree-ring sites in the region. The 415-year reconstruction of Snake River streamflow indicates that extended droughts, more severe than those recorded in the instrumental period, have occurred in the pre-instrumental past. Streamflow in the upper Snake River is strongly linked to Pacific Ocean conditions and sensitive to storm track position. The West's precipitation dipole has a surprisingly narrow transition zone that has shifted in its location over time in some areas but has remained remarkably stationary across Nevada and Utah. Projected climate changes - including warmer temperatures, changing seasonality, reduced snowpack, and changes in the storm track position - highlight the importance of understanding climate-water linkages for future water resource management.

Climatic variability and change can have profound impacts on the hydrologic regime of a watershed, especially in regions that are particularly sensitive to changes in climate, such as the northern latitudes and alpine-fed regions of western Canada. Quantifying historical spatial and temporal changes in hydrological data can provide useful information as to how water resources are affected by climate, as well as create an understanding of potential future variability in the hydrologic regime of a region. The CROCWR (Climatic Redistribution of Canadian Water Resources) project was established to quantify changes in western Canadian water resources under past, present, and future climate through spatio-temporal analyses of runoff and its driving climatic and atmospheric forcings. This research involved the examination of trends in western Canadian annual and seasonal streamflow volume and timing for the periods of 1976-2010 and 1966-2010. Runoff was found to have increased significantly in the most northern watersheds studied, while mid-latitude water availability has decreased considerably. In addition, the onset of the spring freshet has shifted toward earlier timing in the North and along the Pacific coast, associated with increased freshet length and flow volume, while contrasting later freshets have occurred in the mid-latitudes, causing decreased warm season river flows in this region. Application of a Principal Component Analysis revealed coherent hydrological variability in each of the northern, mid-latitude, and southern regions of the study area, with consistent increasing and decreasing trends in river flows for the north and mid-latitudes, respectively. The results of this analysis suggest a northward shift in water from adjacent more southerly western Canadian watersheds. Lower- and mid-latitude runoff was shown to be positively correlated with precipitation both annually and during the warm season, while the effect of temperature was found to be associated with the timing of the spring freshet in the North and along the west coast. River flows in some watersheds were shown to be influenced by the effects of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation and/or the Pacific North American low-frequency climate patterns, however, the overall influence of these natural oscillations on western Canadian streamflow was not determined to be indicative of overall trend results. The results of this analysis will provide water resource managers with an indication of the direction and magnitude of changing water availability in western and northern Canada.