Submitted by Danilo José Brandao Vitor Silva null (danilojbrandao@yahoo.com.br) on 2017-02-03T15:40:19Z No. of bitstreams: 1 TESE DANILO BRANDÃO.pdf: 1732370 bytes, checksum: 2cb226321b60bf10a72d6f5d86091dfb (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by LUIZA DE MENEZES ROMANETTO (luizamenezes@reitoria.unesp.br) on 2017-02-07T11:31:33Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 silva_djbv_dr_guara.pdf: 1732370 bytes, checksum: 2cb226321b60bf10a72d6f5d86091dfb (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2017-02-07T11:31:33Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 silva_djbv_dr_guara.pdf: 1732370 bytes, checksum: 2cb226321b60bf10a72d6f5d86091dfb (MD5) Previous issue date: 2017-01-19 / Este trabalho analisou os parâmetros hidroclimatológicos, buscando encontrar o padrão de precipitação em uma abordagem espaço-temporal para a porção paulista da bacia do rio Paraíba do Sul, empregando o interpolador geoestatístico krigagem. Além disso, verificou a existência de tendência de precipitação e de vazão em séries históricas nesta mesma bacia, utilizando o teste estatístico de Mann-Kendall. Com relação a espacialização da precipitação, foi constatada uma significativa variação espacial para os períodos analisados (verão, outono, inverno e primavera). No verão, período de recarga dos reservatórios, foram registrados os menores índices de precipitação na área de contribuição das sub-bacias que abastecem os reservatórios do Paraibuna e do Jaguari, implicando em uma possível redução na vazão afluente. Não se constatou tendência de precipitação estatisticamente significativa em escala de tempo interanual para os postos pluviométricos, entretanto, foi identificada tendência de diminuição para o outono. Para os postos fluviométricos das sub-bacias do rio Paraibuna, do rio Paraitinga e do rio Jaguari-Buquira, em um período interanual, houve tendência de aumento de vazão para séries históricas de 1930 a 1970 e de diminuição para séries de 1930 a 2015. As estações de medição de vazão utilizadas foram aquelas localizadas a montante dos reservatórios, não estando submetidas assim ao efeito de regularização de vazão. A tendência de diminuição de vazão encontrada para a região pode levar a uma alteração na disponibilidade hídrica e a um possível impacto no abastecimento e na geração de energia. / This research analyzed the hydroclimatological parameters, seeking to find the precipitation pattern in a space-time approach for the São Paulo portion of the Paraíba do Sul river basin, using the geostatistical interpolator kriging. In addition, it verified the existence of precipitation and streamflow trends in historical series for the same basin, using the statistical test of Mann-Kendall. Regarding the precipitation pattern, a significant spatial variability was observed for the periods analyzed (summer, autumn, winter and spring). In the summer, reservoir recharge period, the lowest precipitation rates were recorded in the sub-basin contribution area that supply the Paraibuna and Jaguari reservoirs, implying a possible reduction in the inflow. There was no statistically significant precipitation trend in the interannual time scale for the pluviometric stations, however, a decrease trend was identified for the autumn. For fluviometric stations in the sub-basins of the Paraibuna, Paraitinga and Jaguari-Buquira rivers, in the interannual time scale, there was a trend towards an increase in streamflow for historical series from 1930 to 1970 and decrease for series from 1930 to 2015. The streamflow stations used were those located upstream of the reservoirs and were not subject to the effect of flow regulation. The downward trend in streamflow found in the region can lead to a change in water availability and a possible impact on the supply and energy generation.

Fontes renováveis de energia representam alternativas para a mitigação da mudança do clima global, no entanto, são mais suscetíveis a mudanças nas condições climáticas. O sistema elétrico brasileiro (SEB) possui a peculiaridade de ter maior parte de sua energia gerada a partir de fontes renováveis, principalmente usinas hidrelétricas. Por essa razão, constitui uma amostra representativa das dificuldades de operar uma matriz energética de base predominantemente renovável. A geração predominantemente hidrelétrica de energia permite operar com baixas emissões e baixos custos operacionais, nada obstante a forte dependência dessa envolve considerável risco hidrológico, principalmente em um contexto em que as restrições à armazenagem de energia em grandes barragens são maiores. Por conseguinte, a combinação de investimentos inadequados na capacidade de geração com escassez de chuvas pode, eventualmente, levar a situações nas quais a capacidade de oferta seja inferior à demanda e até mesmo a racionamentos (2001). É evidente que a capacidade de prever com precisão o índice de chuvas e, consequentemente, as vazões disponíveis para o próximo período caracteriza-se como uma importante ferramenta para a operação do setor elétrico brasileiro. Hoje, as previsões de vazões futuras são realizadas com base na observação de vazões passadas sem incorporar nas análises as variáveis que as determinam (por exemplo, variáveis climáticas). Entretanto, existem evidências de que a variabilidade das vazões na América do Sul é cadenciada pelos sistemas acoplados do tipo oceano-atmosférico, os chamados fenômenos de grande escala como é o caso do El Niño. No entanto as técnicas tradicionais de previsão até então não utilizam de forma sistêmica as informações climáticas. A metodologia aqui apresentada incorpora informações sobre o clima para tomada de decisões envolvendo recursos hídricos, sendo demonstrada sua aplicação para a região Sudeste do Brasil. Demonstra-se que o manuseamento de variáveis climáticas (mais particularmente aquelas vinculadas ao fenômeno do El Niño) permite calcular a previsão de vazões tão bem quanto os programas oficiais, tendo como vantagem acompanhar as mudanças climáticas eminentes. A metodologia proposta é formada pelas seguintes partes: Modelo SARIMAX; Levantamento de Dados; Análise Gráfica de Correlações; Análise de Séries Temporais; Análise de Gráfica de wavelets e Análise de correlação em Mapas georreferenciados. Esses procedimentos são necessários para visualizar-se com clareza o histórico embutido nas informações analisadas e uma melhor compreensão para a fase de modelagem com o método SARIMAX. Os resultados indicam que o modelo SARIMAX, com variáveis macroclimáticas, é melhor que o NEWAVE. / Renewable energy sources represent alternatives to the mitigation of global climate change, but they are more susceptible to changing on weather conditions. The Brazilian electricity system has the peculiarity that most of its energy is generated from renewable sources, mainly by hydroelectric plants. For this reason, it provides a representative sample of the difficulties for operating a predominantly renewable basis energy matrix. On one hand, the main hydroelectric generation allows low emissions and low operating costs; on the other hand, the heavy dependence on hydropower involves considerable hydrological risks, specially in an environment where restrictions on energy storage (large dams) are high. Thus, the combination of inadequate investment in generation capacity with low rainfall may, eventually, lead to situations in which the supply capacity is less than the demand, leading even rationing (2002). It is then clear that the ability to accurately predict the rainfall index and hence flow rates available for the next period is an important tool for the operation of the Brazilian electric sector (SEB). Presently, future flows forecasting are only based on observation of past flows without incorporating the analysis of the variables that determine such flows (e.g. climate variables). However, there are evidences that the variability of flows in South America is punctuated by coupled ocean-atmosphere type systems, the so-called large-scale phenomena such as El Niño. However, the traditional forecasting techniques still do not use climate information in a systematic way. The methodology presented here incorporates weather information for decision making in water resources, and demonstrates its applicability to the Southeastern region of Brazil. It is showed that the use of climatic variables (particularly those related to the El Niño phenomenon) predicts streamflow forecasting as well as the official programs do, with the advantage of following eminent climate change. The proposed methodology is formed of the following parts, not necessarily in this order: Model SARIMAX; Data Collection; Graphic analysis of correlations; Time Series Analysis; Wavelets Graphical analysis and Correlation analysis of geo-referenced maps. These procedures are necessary to clearly see the embedded historical information of the information analyzed and better understanding of the modeling stage with SARIMAX method. The results indicate that the SARIMAX model, with large scale variables, is better than the NEWAVE.

Addendum on back page. Includes bibliography. Groundwater levels within the Willunga Basin, South Australia, are declining due to excessive extraction of water for irrigation purposes. An alternative source of water is needed to supplement the declining levels to ensure the sustainability of the groundwater system. A model was developed to evaluate the potential for using aquifer storage and recovery in conjunction with the surface storage of streamflow as a possible alternative water source. The application of this model to the largest catchment in the Willinga basin shows that sufficient streamflow is available to reverse the current overexploitation of the groundwater system.

Velocity measurements from drifter GPS records are assimilated and used in an ensemble-based inversion technique to extract the river bathymetry. The method is tested on a deep meandering reach and a shallow braided reach of the Kootenai River in Idaho, USA. The Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS) is used to model numerous statistically varied bathymetries to create an ensemble of hydrodynamic states. These states, the drifter observations, and the uncertainty of each are combined to form a cost function which is minimized to produce an estimated velocity ���eld. State augmentation is then used to relate the velocity ���eld to bathymetry. Our goals are to assess whether ROMS can accurately reproduce the Kootenai River ���ow to an extent that depth inversion is feasible, investigate if drifter paths are sensitive enough to bottom topography to make depth inversion possible, and to establish practical limitations of the present methodology. At both test sites, the depth inversion method produced an estimate of bathymetry that was more accurate and more skillful than the prior estimate. / Graduation date: 2013

The purpose of this dissertation is to develop and evaluate techniques for improvement of seasonal streamflow forecasts in the Upper Rio Grande (URG) basin in the U.S. Southwest. Three techniques are investigated. The first technique is an investigation of the effects of the El Ni??o/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on temperature, precipitation, snow water equivalent (SWE), and the resulting streamflow at a monthly time scale, using data from 1952 to 1999 (WY). It was seen that the effects of ENSO on temperature and precipitation were confined to certain months, predominantly at the beginning and end of the winter season, and that the effect of these modulations of temperature and precipitation by ENSO can be seen in the magnitude and time variation of SWE and streamflow. The second part is a comparison of the use for snowmelt-runoff modeling of the newly available snowcover product based on imagery from the satellite-borne Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) with the long-time standard snowcover product from the National Hydrological Remote Sensing Center (NOHRSC). This comparison is made using the Snowmelt Runoff Model (SRM) in two watersheds located inside the URG basin. This comparison is important because the MODIS snowcover product could greatly improve the availability of snowcover information because of its high spatial (500m) and temporal (daily) resolutions and extensive (global) coverage. Based on the results of this comparison, the MODIS snowcover product gives comparable snowcover information compared to that from NOHRSC. The final part is an investigation of streamflow forecasting using mass-balance models. Two watersheds used in the comparison of MODIS and NOHRSC snowcover products were again used. The parameters of the mass-balance models are obtained in two different ways and streamflow forecasts are made on January 1st, February 1st, March 1st and April 1st. The first means of parameter estimation is to use the parameter values from 1990 to 2001 SRM streamflow simulations and the second means is by optimization. The results of this investigation show that mass-balance models show potential to improve the long-term streamflow forecasts in snowmelt-dominated watersheds if dependable precipitation forecasts can be provided.

Through distributed stream network routing, it has quantitatively been shown that the relationship between flow travel time and discharge varies strongly nonlinearly with stream stage and with catchment-specific properties. Physically derived distributions of water travel times through a stream network were successfully used to parameterise the streamflow response function of a compartmental hydrological model. Predictions were found to improve compared to conventional statistically based parameterisation schemes, for most of the modelled scenarios, particularly for peakflow conditions. A Fourier spectral analysis of 55-110 years of daily discharge time series from 79 unregulated catchments in Sweden revealed that the discharge power spectral slope has gradually increased over time, with significant increases for 58 catchments. The results indicated that the catchment scaling function power spectrum had steepened in most of the catchments for which historical precipitation series were available. These results suggest that (local) land-use changes within the catchments may affect the discharge power spectra more significantly than changes in precipitation (climate change). A case study from an agriculturally intense catchment using historical (from the 1880s) and modern stream network maps revealed that the average stream network flow distance as well as average water levels were substantially diminished over the past century, while average bottom slopes increased. The study verifies the hypothesis that anthropogenic changes (determined through scenario modelling using a 1D distributed routing model) of stream network properties can have a substantial influence on the travel times through the stream networks and thus on the discharge hydrographs. The findings stress the need for a more hydrodynamically based approach to adequately describe the variation of streamflow response, especially for predictions of higher discharges. An increased physical basis of response functions can be beneficial in improving discharge predictions during conditions in which conventional parameterisation based on historical flow patterns may not be possible - for example, for extreme peak flows and during periods of nonstationary conditions, such as during periods of climate and/or land use change. / <p>QC 20150903</p>

From the Proceedings of the 1975 Meetings of the Arizona Section - American Water Resources Assn. and the Hydrology Section - Arizona Academy of Science - April 11-12, 1975, Tempe, Arizona / Traditionally, watershed management is concerned with water and sediment yield, vegetation, soils, and meteorology, but not with geomorphology. Often it is in this field that the explanation can be found for the formation and present condition of a watershed and its future development. Examples are presented to demonstrate that factors in the hydraulic geometry of streams indicate whether a watershed is in an active stage of landform development, or is in dynamic equilibrium. Some general guides for the practitioner are provided. Watershed management research cannot afford to ignore the basic geomorphic setting of watersheds. If geomorphology is not considered, the researcher's results could be misinterpreted.

From the Proceedings of the 1976 Meetings of the Arizona Section - American Water Resources Assn. and the Hydrology Section - Arizona Academy of Science - April 29-May 1, 1976, Tucson, Arizona / To provide quantitative baseline information on water quality of streamflow from ponderosa pine watersheds on sedimentary soils, water samples were collected at the mouths of four watersheds at time of surface runoff and during extreme or unusual hydrological events. In each sample, calcium (Ca++), magnesium (Mg++) and sodium (Na+) were determined by using atomic absorption spectrophotometry; carbonate (CO=3) and bicarbonate (HCO-3) were measured by titrating with standard acid; fluoride (F-), sulfate (SO=4), 3 nitrate (NO-3), and chloride (Cl-) were determined by colorimetric methods using an Autoanalyzer; hydrogen ion concentration (pH) was measured by using a glass electrode; and suspended sediment concentrations were determined by filtration. The data obtained were compared with EPA water quality standards for aquatic life, irrigation, and public water supply. Although the EPA levels of acceptability have not been established for many of the chemical and physical water constituents, the parameters determined in this study, in general, fall within the EPA prescribed limits.

Our understanding of subsurface flow depends on assumptions of how event characteristics and spatial scale affect the relationships between subsurface water velocity, discharge, water table dynamics, and runoff response. In this thesis, three chapters explore some of these patterns for a hillslope and small watershed in coastal British Columbia. In the first chapter, tracers were applied under natural and steady state conditions to determine the relationship between lateral tracer velocities and various hillslope and event characteristics; such as hillslope subsurface flow, rainfall intensity, water table level, hillslope length, and antecedent condition. The results showed that preferential flow made up a large percentage of the subsurface flow from the gauged hillslope. Flow velocities as measured by tracers were affected by slope length and boundary conditions. The flow velocity was most closely related to the rainfall intensity, and changes in flow velocity were large compared to the changes in the water table. In the second chapter, the preferential flow features that transmitted water during steady state were investigated by staining the soil with a food dye solution and excavating the soil. These data were used to explore the link between the topographical factors (slope and contributing area), the network of preferential features and soil properties. The contributing area appeared to be an indicator of the size of the preferential features and their connectivity. In the final manuscript chapter, water table level and stream discharge measurements were used to determine if areas within a watershed with runoff dominated by preferential flow could be grouped based on the observable physical information such as slope, contributing area, distance to stream, and vegetation. Preferential flow made the water table responses dynamic and thus, distinct zones could not be identified. Models of the water table – runoff were not able to predict the water table response for other sites with similar physical characteristics. Even though there was high variability in the results, the patterns and relationships revealed in this thesis conform to existing conceptual models of hillslope subsurface preferential flow. These patterns and relationships may be useful in developing or validating numerical models.

As anthropogenic demands on water resources intensify instream flow needs are becoming an increasingly important area of study, particularly over winter months during which time little is known about the behaviour and physiology of fishes. This thesis addresses the implications of water withdrawal from a small in situ stream on brook trout (Salvelinus fontinalis) during the winter of 2007 and 2008 in the Rocky Mountains. Water was withdrawn from one of two stream enclosures reducing the discharge by 50% and 75%, for 4hrs daily. Behaviour was monitored using radio transmitters that were externally attached to the small trout. Changes in physiology were monitored by measuring stress hormone levels and by measuring predicted body composition parameters using bioelectrical impedance analysis. Trout reacted to water withdrawal by being more active, but this change in behaviour did not elicit detectable changes in physiology. / x, 129 leaves : ill. ; 29 cm. --