Esta dissertaÃÃo buscou identificar atravÃs de vetores autorregressivos (VAR) a relaÃÃo entre variÃveis macroeconÃmicas e a variaÃÃo do saldo das operaÃÃes inadimplidas a mais de 60 dias. Foram construÃdos dois cenÃrios de retraÃÃo econÃmica atravÃs da tÃcnica de impulso resposta. Ademais, a pesquisa identificou que a variaÃÃo do Produto Interno Bruto (PIB) e a variaÃÃo da Taxa Selic Acumulada, em perÃodos defasados, possuem grande correlaÃÃo com a variaÃÃo do saldo das operaÃÃes inadimplidas. Os resultados apontam que i) hà uma relaÃÃo inversa entre o crescimento do saldo das operaÃÃes inadimplidas e o crescimento do PIB na Ãpoca da inadimplÃncia, ii) hà uma relaÃÃo direta entre o crescimento do saldo das operaÃÃes inadimplidas hà mais de 121 dias e o crescimento da taxa Selic um mÃs apÃs a Ãpoca da inadimplÃncia, iii) os choques negativos no PIB afetam o crescimento do saldo das operaÃÃes inadimplidas e o crescimento da PCLD por um perÃodo superior a 12 meses. / This research sought to identify through autoregressive vectors (VAR) the relationship between macroeconomic variables and the change in the balance of operations over 60 days, building two scenarios of economic downturn by impulse response technique. The research identified that the variation of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and the Accumulated Selic Interest Rate in delayed periods have high correlation with the change in the balance of defaulting operations. The results show that i) there is an inverse relationship between the growth of the balance of defaulting operations and GDP growth at the time of default, ii) there is a direct relationship between the growth of the balance of defaulting operations for more than 121 days and growth the Selic rate one month after the time of default, iii) negative shocks on GDP affect the growth of the balance of the defaulting operations and growth of the Allowance for more than 12 consecutive months.

This thesis deals with the stress testing of banks in Czech Republic and the EU. The first part discusses the financial stability. Attention is paid mainly to different opinions of financial institutions and other experts. The first part includes the financial stability assessment tools of two major financial institutions that deal with financial stability (IMF and ECB). The second part is devoted to one the specific assessment tool for financial stability - stress testing. Stress testing part targets to include the latest theoretical knowledge that are related to stress testing. The third part deals with the stress testing of the banking sector in the Czech Republic and examines the evolution of stress scenarios and methods of stress tests, which are the responsibility of CNB. The fourth part analyzes in detail the stress scenarios and the results of stress tests of the banking sector in the Czech Republic. The last part of the thesis is devoted to the analysis of stress tests of the EU banking sector.

The aim of this thesis is to provide an overview of methods used in cause-of-death mortality analysis and to demonstrate the application on real data. In Chapter 1 we present the continuous model based on the force of mortality and review the approach using copula functions. In Chapter 2 we focus on the multinomial logit model formulated for cause-specific mortality data, discuss life tables construction and derive life expectancy. In Chapter 3 we apply the multinomial logit model on the data from Czech Statistical Office. We identify the regression model, check its assumptions, present the outputs including the fitted life expectancy, and predicted mortality rates. Later in Chapter 3 we consider several stress scenarios in order to demonstrate the impact of shocked mortality rates on the life expectancy.