The aim of this thesis is to analyze the change in response of Latin American governments to the economic crisis and thus the change in the character of protectionist measures applied. How do the means of the protection of domestic market change? How does the financial globalization reflect in the Latin American protectionism? What are the further perspectives of the development of Latin American countries? The thesis is divided into three chapters. The first chapter examines the forms of protectionism in the reaction to economic crisis of the 20th century. Firstly, it presents Latin America as a traditionally protectionist region in the period of the import substitution industrialization, secondly it focuses on governments' reactions to the cyclic crises of the 80s and 90s that were caused by the liberalization of the capital accounts and high sensitivity of Latin American economies to the sudden stop on financial markets. The second chapter is devoted to the current global economic crisis. It analyses the means of trade and financial protectionism. Simultaneously, it compares the protectionist measures used to the ones employed in previous periods. The final part of the thesis explores further perspectives of Latin American regionalism and improved macroeconomic stability of Latin American economies.

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Submitted by Marcelo Reis Dreyer de Souza (marcelo.dreyer@gmail.com) on 2015-02-22T21:25:32Z No. of bitstreams: 1 MarceloSouza_final.pdf: 1013317 bytes, checksum: 78632b388bcd25a528ba8a7ef46e71ff (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Renata de Souza Nascimento (renata.souza@fgv.br) on 2015-02-23T23:00:34Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 MarceloSouza_final.pdf: 1013317 bytes, checksum: 78632b388bcd25a528ba8a7ef46e71ff (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2015-02-24T13:41:22Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 MarceloSouza_final.pdf: 1013317 bytes, checksum: 78632b388bcd25a528ba8a7ef46e71ff (MD5) Previous issue date: 2015-01-27 / Este trabalho analisa, sob a ótica da sustentabilidade da dívida, os efeitos de se manter um elevado nível de reservas internacionais juntamente com um elevado estoque de dívida pública. Busca-se o nível ótimo de reservas para o Brasil através de uma ferramenta de gestão de risco, por simulações de Monte Carlo. Considerando as variáveis estocásticas que afetam a equação de acumulação da dívida, e entendendo a relação entre elas, pode-se estudar as propriedades estocásticas da dinâmica da dívida. Da mesma forma, podemos analisar o impacto fiscal de um determinado nível de reservas ao longo do tempo e verificar quais caminhos se mostram sustentáveis. Sob a ótica da sustentabilidade da dívida, a escolha que gera a melhor relação dívida líquida / PIB para o Brasil é aquela que utiliza o máximo das reservas internacionais para reduzir o endividamento local. No entanto, como há aspectos não capturados nesta análise, tais como os benefícios das reservas em prevenir crises e em funcionar como garantia para investimentos externos, sugere-se que as reservas não excedam os níveis reconhecidos pela literatura internacional que atendam a estes fins. A indicação final deste estudo é que as reservas internacionais funcionam como um instrumento de proteção ao país quando o endividamento e o custo dele não são tão expressivos, como são atualmente no Brasil. / With the perspective of debt sustainability, this paper analyses the effects of maintaining a high level of international reserves with a high stock of public debt. An optimal level of reserves for Brazil is pursued using a risk management tool, through Monte Carlo simulations. Considering the stochastic variables that affect the equation of debt accumulation, and understanding the relation between them, it is possible to study the stochastic properties of the debt. Similarly, we can analyze the fiscal impact of a given level of reserves and verify which paths prove sustainable. From the perspective of the debt sustainability, the choice that generates the best net debt / GDP for Brazil is the one that uses the maximum of international reserves to reduce local debt. However, as there are some aspects that this analysis does not capture, as the benefit of the reserves in preventing crises and serving as collateral for foreign investment, is suggested that reserves should not exceed levels recognized by the international literature that meet these purposes. The final indication of this study is that reserves function as a protective device when the debt and its cost are not so expressive as they are currently in Brazil.