The future has always caught the attention of the human being. The thirst of exploring the future and to know the unknown has driven the human being toward innovativeness. Companies are expanding their operations worldwide since the past few decades. Profit growth coupled with an effective strategy has become the primary need of global companies. Research in this area has given rise to optimization of the supply chain for higher profitability. Considering the overall strategy the company needs to plan production well in advance. The operational planning comes in picture at this moment. In order to reduce excessive inventory at each stage of the production; one should know the demand of the next stage and preferably the end customer demand. The process of sales forecasting is undertaken to predict demand at different stages. It is a complex managerial function and hence needed to be undertaken by a scientific way. The sales forecasting the function includes process of forecasting, administration, hardware, software, users and developers of forecast. Historically sales forecasting has been considered as a side activity by most of the companies. Sales forecasting has not been considered as an important function of marketing and finance. Very few companies have seen sales forecasting by a scientific management point of view. Less research has been reported in sales forecasting in comparison to other managerial functions. Planning based on sales forecasting; may be part of a selected strategy for growth and profitability. These facts have attracted us to study sales forecasting as a managerial function. The purpose of this study is to describe and analyze the sales forecasting process, sales forecasting system, sales forecasting methods and techniques. Further proposing possibilities of improvements in existing forecasting process is also purpose of this study. We have selected three manufacturing companies for this study based on purposive sampling. Considering research interest in phenomenon study; we have selected a qualitative research strategy for this study. We have selected a case study method for our research as it is the most appropriate tool to study the relation between theory and phenomenon. For this research, we have collected the data by semistructured interviews based on a pre formed questionnaire. The questionnaire has been prepared with respect to our research purpose and open ended questions were used to gather extensive data. The data gathered during interviews, have been analyzed by the use of ‘Flow model’ suggested by Miles and Huberman (1994). Results from this study shows that there is a need to see ‘sales forecasting’ as a management function rather than a computer activity. To achieve the best information integration throughout the supply chain, increased information visibility is needed. To achieve accuracy in both forecasting and planning; collaborative forecasting may be used. Forecasting software needs to have a suite of methods towards product specific forecasting. The need of customized softwares has also been indicated by this study. The need to measure performance of forecasting by means of accuracy, cost and customer relationship has been concluded.

I denna undersökning studeras ett reservdelsflöde inom eftermarknad ur ett organisatorisktperspektiv. Reservdelen glidskenan på Atlas Copcos borriggar fungerar som fallstudieobjekt. Glidskenan är en tunn stålprofil, som mäter mellan två och åtta meter och skyddar matarbalkarna på ovan- och underjordsborriggar mot slitage. Vår uppdragsgivare Atlas Copcos Shared Distributionscenter (i fortsättningen DC) upplever problem i flödet av glidskenor. Glidskenan är skrymmande och svår att hantera, förpacka och transportera och flödet flyter inte effektivt. De upplevda problemen har varit kända i över 12 år och förbättringsansatser har runnit ut i sanden. Genom kartläggning av hur flödet flyter idag och hur organisationen runt flödet agerar har tre teman presenterats och analyserats. Dessa tre teman förklarar de bakomliggande organisatoriska aspekterna som påverkar glidskenans flöde och varför de upplevda problemen inte blir åtgärdade. Studien lyfter fram vikten av samarbete mellan de olika organisatoriska funktionerna och individerna i organisationen. Om samarbetet dem emellan fungerar kan synergieffekter erhållas, men ett bristande samarbete kan också hämma organisationens potential. Det första temat behandlar att kunskap finns inom organisationen, men att den inte sprids mellan medarbetarna. Med utgångspunkt i studiens andra tema konstaterar vi att medarbetarnas olika syn på glidskenan utgör en barriär för kunskapsspridning. Olika syn hämmar även medarbetarnas engagemang och intresse för att hitta förbättringar inom glidskenans flöde. I studiens tredje tema, avstånd, ser vi att organisationens fysiska men framförallt mentala avstånd hindrar organisationsmedlemmarna att känna en vi-samhet. Utan denna vi-samhet finns inga incitament till samarbete för att effektivisera glidskenans flöde. / In this research a spare part flow within aftermarket has been studied through an organizational perspective. The slide-bar is a spare part in Atlas Copco Rock Drills assortment and forms a case study for our research. The slide bar is a thin steel profile which measures between two and eight centimetres. They are placed on the feeders of surface- and underground drilling rigs as a protection from wear and tear. Atlas Copco Shared Distribution Center (DC) has given us a case as a background for our research. The slide bars are bulky to handle, wrap and transport and for DC the flow appears to be ineffective and expensive. DC are experiencing problems within the material flow of slide bars and is puzzled why no improvement has been done, although the problems has been known to DC for over twelve years. Projects to improve the flow has been initiated but gone down the drains.

We consider three problems on inventory, transportation and location in a supply chain. In Chapter 2, we study Multilevel Rationing (MR) and Strict Priority (SP) stock allocation policies for a centralized single product multi-class M/G/1 make-to-stock queueing systems. To obtain the total cost of the system under these policies, we introduce a new method called “customer composition”. Using this method, we focus on the proportion of customers of each class out of the total number of customers in the queue since the number of customers in M/G/1 queues is invariant for any non-idling and non-anticipating policy. We consider a series of two-priority M/G/1 queues with an exceptional service time in each busy period to characterize the customer composition. We derive closed form expressions for the costs of SP and MR policies using these results. In Chapter 3, we consider a two-echelon inventory system with a congested centralized production facility and several Distribution Centers (DCs). We assume that the production and transportation times are stochastic that are generally distributed, and customers arrive to each DC according to an independent Poisson process. Inventory at DCs is managed using the one-for-one replenishment policy. We use the customer composition approach to characterize the total inventory carrying and backlog costs of the system under the FCFS, SP and MR allocation policies at the warehouse. For the special case of exponentially distributed production and transportation times, we use the unit-flow method and derive closed form expressions for the optimal cost and base-stock level of the DCs. We numerically demonstrate that prioritization using either the SP or the MR policy could be very beneficial in comparison with the FCFS policy. In Chapter 4, we study a two-echelon supply chain with a set of suppliers, a set of retailers and a set of capacitated cross-docks which are to be established. The demand of the retailers could be satisfied from the suppliers through the cross-docks. The objective is to determine the number and location of cross-docks, the assignment of retailers to suppliers so that the total cost of pipeline and retailers’ inventory, transportation, and facility location is minimized. We formulate the problem as a non-linear mixed integer programming and derive several structural results for special cases of the problem. To solve the general problem, we show that it can be written as a cutting stock problem and develop a column generation algorithm to solve it. We investigate the efficiency of the proposed algorithm numerically.

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We consider three problems on inventory, transportation and location in a supply chain. In Chapter 2, we study Multilevel Rationing (MR) and Strict Priority (SP) stock allocation policies for a centralized single product multi-class M/G/1 make-to-stock queueing systems. To obtain the total cost of the system under these policies, we introduce a new method called “customer composition”. Using this method, we focus on the proportion of customers of each class out of the total number of customers in the queue since the number of customers in M/G/1 queues is invariant for any non-idling and non-anticipating policy. We consider a series of two-priority M/G/1 queues with an exceptional service time in each busy period to characterize the customer composition. We derive closed form expressions for the costs of SP and MR policies using these results. In Chapter 3, we consider a two-echelon inventory system with a congested centralized production facility and several Distribution Centers (DCs). We assume that the production and transportation times are stochastic that are generally distributed, and customers arrive to each DC according to an independent Poisson process. Inventory at DCs is managed using the one-for-one replenishment policy. We use the customer composition approach to characterize the total inventory carrying and backlog costs of the system under the FCFS, SP and MR allocation policies at the warehouse. For the special case of exponentially distributed production and transportation times, we use the unit-flow method and derive closed form expressions for the optimal cost and base-stock level of the DCs. We numerically demonstrate that prioritization using either the SP or the MR policy could be very beneficial in comparison with the FCFS policy. In Chapter 4, we study a two-echelon supply chain with a set of suppliers, a set of retailers and a set of capacitated cross-docks which are to be established. The demand of the retailers could be satisfied from the suppliers through the cross-docks. The objective is to determine the number and location of cross-docks, the assignment of retailers to suppliers so that the total cost of pipeline and retailers’ inventory, transportation, and facility location is minimized. We formulate the problem as a non-linear mixed integer programming and derive several structural results for special cases of the problem. To solve the general problem, we show that it can be written as a cutting stock problem and develop a column generation algorithm to solve it. We investigate the efficiency of the proposed algorithm numerically.

Bakgrund Johan Andersson som är inköpschef på PEAB menar att det finns förbättringsmöjligheter för beställningsprocessen av betong. Informationsflödet i hela försörjningskedjan, som består av PEAB, Swerock och BASF, är bristfällig som enligt parterna leder till kapacitet- och ledtidsproblem i försörjningskedjan. Syfte Syftet med den här uppsatsen är att undersöka hur beställningsprocessen av betong ser ut i försörjningskedjan, samt att lokalisera vilka delar i processen som har förbättringspotential med avseende på information-, kapacitet- och ledtidsproblem. Även att undersöka vilken materialplaneringsmetod som är mest lämplig i försörjningskedjan under de nuvarande förutsättningarna och om någon förutsättning måste ändras för att en implementering ska vara genomförbar. Likaså är syftet att undersöka vilken inverkan den eventuellt nya materialplaneringsmetoden får på försörjningskedjan. Slutsats Det återfinns förbättringspotential i försörjningskedjan med hänseende på informationsflödet. För att den valda täcktidsplaneringen ska kunna implementeras i försörjningskedjan måste några av de nuvarande miljöplaneringsfaktorerna ändras.

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Postponement as a tool of creating flexibility is not a new concept. It traces back in literature to the 1950’s but was mainly argued as a method useful for manufacturing. However, postponement could potentially be used in all different parts of an organization to delay certain activities, and thereby create flexibility, which is crucial in today’s volatile marketplace. Customers are requiring customized products, yet they are not willing to pay premium for processes involved. Also, competition is increasing, as retailers around the globe compete with each other due to internet and improved information systems. This study focuses on a retailer’s perspective in the supply chain, as previous studies mainly discuss manufacturers, and their different abilities of achieving flexibility. Supply chain management as a concept are discussed, which is described as an integrative approach to dealing with the planning and control of the materials flow from suppliers to end users. This will further be “extended” to demand chain management, where focus lies at customers’ demand and puts emphasis on the needs of the marketplace and identifies the roles and tasks to be designed in the supply chain to satisfy these needs, instead of starting with the supplier/manufacturer and working forward. This is closely connected to flexibility, and postponement as a tool to achieve this. Flexibility as such, is described as the ability to change, or adapt to customer demand. This study aims to explore the Swedish retailing business, and their use of postponement strategies. A quantitative study has been made to be able to create a general picture of their use of this tool, as well as their prerequisite for adopting this tool. This study shows that retailing in general do have adopted strategies for customizations except non-specialized stores where answers to a wide extent differed regarding their use of flexibility. However, these strategies mainly regard packaging, and/or basic customizations. Depending on the market certain retailers are active within; postponement is used in various extents. Expensive products, or customers requiring big quantities of products, are able to get these customized. Money is almost always the main concern in these adaptations. Some factors that have been studied, that were enablers of flexibility and postponement strategies, were not able to be analyzed as very low results were calculated. However, the main-factors: flexibility and postponement were able to be analyzed in detail, as well as discussions regarding the inconclusive data gathered.