High-Shear Low-CAPE (Convective Available Potential Energy) (HSLC) Tornado Outbreaks (TOs) are a specific subset of TOs that occur each year, primarily East of the Rocky Mountains. This study looks to define HSLC TOs with the use of quartiles of the most supported shear and CAPE measure, create a climatology of HSLC TOs, and to give a better description of the synoptic-scale patterns associated with HSLC TOs. Statistical analysis of quartiles and inner quartile range (IQR) were conducted to see which is the best measure. Ultimately, Mixed-layer CAPE (MLCAPE) and 0-3km shear were used due to past support and were used to define HSLC TOs. Bootstrapping was conducted, and compositing was created for each of the five regions. Bootstrapping between some regions showed statistical significance, and some of the composites matched up closely to what was seen in past HSLC research.

Approved for public release, distribution is unlimited / An analysis of in-situ aircraft observations collected in the parent cloud of a waterspout is presented. Previous waterspout studies were confined mainly to photometric and model simulated data, no in-situ observations were made internal to the parent cloud. On 27 June 2002 the Cooperative Institute for Remotely Piloted Aircraft Studies (CIRPAS) UV-18A Twin Otter aircraft collected observations in a cloud that had developed in a cloud line, located approximately 15km south of Key West, and that formed a waterspout. This study attempts to analyze the waterspout formation process using these data and through a series of scale interactions, from the synoptic scale down to the individual cloud scale. Based upon the analyzed data a hypothetical formation process is developed. The background synoptic scale flow is shown to establish the necessary ambient shear as a key factor in the waterspout formation. The orientation of mesoscale convergent boundaries and thermodynamic processes, internal to the cloud, proved to be an essential factor in developing the vertical motion patterns necessary for formation of an organized circulation in the shear region and to provide the tipping and stretching of the resultant vortex necessary to account for the waterspout formation. This is consistent with conclusions derived from previous studies. / Captain, United States Air Force

Submitted by Emanuel Varela Cardoso (emanuel.varela@ufcg.edu.br) on 2018-05-15T19:11:02Z No. of bitstreams: 1 JAQUELINE NUBIA DE QUEIROZ – DISSERTAÇÃO (PPGMET) 2015.pdf: 2713076 bytes, checksum: bbd090a4319e80a949989a3402b826d7 (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2018-05-15T19:11:02Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 JAQUELINE NUBIA DE QUEIROZ – DISSERTAÇÃO (PPGMET) 2015.pdf: 2713076 bytes, checksum: bbd090a4319e80a949989a3402b826d7 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2015-03-12 / Áreas urbanas densamente povoadas situadas na região tropical são particularmente vulneráveis a eventos de chuva intensa. Na cidade de Salvador, capital do Estado da Bahia, vários fatores contribuem para a gravidade dos impactos causados por chuvas intensas: o relevo acidentado, a densidade populacional, a ocupação desordenada do solo, a diversidade e intensidade dos sistemas meteorológicos, dentre outros. Neste estudo as condições de estabilidade da atmosfera no mês (muito chuvoso) de abril de 2009 foram analisadas com o objetivo principal de investigar o grau de relação entre índices de estabilidade e a ocorrência de chuva na cidade. Dados de reanálise, imagens realçadas de satélite meteorológico, totais diários de precipitação e sondagens diárias de ar superior realizadas às 1200 UTC constituem a base de dados deste estudo. Métodos de análise meteorológica e análise multivariada são utilizados. No mês de estudo há dezessete dias com registro de precipitação, dos quais quatro com totais diários que ultrapassam 50 mm. Um evento que provocou chuva intensa em toda a cidade, cujo total pluviométrico é registrado no dia 19, é causado por uma linha convectiva que se forma sobre o Estado da Bahia, na latitude de Salvador, associada a um cavado frontal com forte cisalhamento horizontal e vertical do vento. O teor de umidade é elevado na baixa troposfera, antes e depois do evento. A aplicação da análise de componentes principais a nove índices de estabilidade resulta em um modelo de três componentes que explica 91,82% da variância total dos dados. A primeira componente é associada aos índices relacionados à variação vertical de umidade e temperatura, direção e velocidade do vento, a segunda componente aos índices relacionados à variação vertical de umidade, e a terceira componente ao índice K. A aplicação da análise de agrupamentos aos fatores rotacionados resulta em quatro grupos com características distintas. O Grupo 1 reúne dias com registro de chuva, dos quais três com eventos de chuva intensa. O Grupo 2 separa dias opostos sob o ponto de vista da precipitação. O Grupo 3 é constituído por dias com totais de precipitação muito baixos. No Grupo 4 estão dias com pouca ou nenhuma precipitação registrada, com exceção de um dia de chuva intensa. O índice K é o melhor na previsão de chuva no mês de estudo. / Heavily populated urban areas located in the tropical region are particularly vulnerable to intense rainfall events. In the city of Salvador, capital of Bahia State, several factors contribute for the severity of the impacts caused by intense rainfall: the complex topography, the population density, the disorderly human occupation, the diversity and intensity of meteorological systems, among others. In this study the atmospheric stability conditions in the (very rainy) month of April 2009 are analyzed with the main objective of investigating the degree of relationship between stability indices and rainfall occurrence in the city. Reanalysis data, enhanced meteorological satellite imagery, daily 24-hour rainfall totals and 1200 UTC daily upper air soundings are the basis for this study. Meteorological and multivariate analysis techniques are used. There are seventeen rainy days in the month of study among which four have daily rainfall totals higher than 50 mm. One event of heavy rainfall over the entire city whose rainfall total is registered on day 19, is caused by a convective line that forms over Bahia State, on the latitude of Salvador, associated to a frontal trough with strong horizontal and vertical wind shear. Moisture content is high in the lower troposphere, before and after the event. The application of principal component analysis to nine stability indices results in a three component model which explains 91.82% of the total variance in the data. The first principal component is associated with indices related to the vertical variation of moisture and temperature, wind direction and speed, the second component to the indices related to the vertical variation of moisture, and the third component to the K index. The application of cluster analysis to the rotated factors results in four groups with distinct characteristics. Group 1 has days with rain, among which there are three intense rainfall events. Group 2 has days with opposing characteristics in terms of precipitation. Group 3 is comprised by days with very low rainfall values. Group 4 has days with low rainfall total or rainfall absence, with exception of one intense rainfall day. The K index is the best in forecasting rainfall in the month of study.

This study is an analysis of a three-phase study with twelve professional scientists and non-scientists (Phase One), one-hundred and twenty-three science and non-science university students (Phase Two) and thirty secondary school girls (Phase Three), to illustrate their ‘science lives’. I have used identity theories and transformational learning theory (TLT) to illustrate transformation or movement of learners towards, or away from, science. The understanding of these models and theories have led me to design a theoretical model of science identity (Sci-ID) that represents the global forces (GF) experienced by learners, the social agencies and agents (SA) that embody those forces, the transformational learning (TL) experiences (events, triggers and interventions) that shape personal meaning, and the inclinations and individual internal agency (IIA) that impact upon individuals’ subject and career choices. I have adopted semi-structured ‘narrative’ styled interviews, a descriptive questionnaire and science ‘intervention evaluation’ approaches from the three cohorts. The data generated has been analysed in several ways, including the use of synoptic analysis to construct individual stories about the participants, in third-person voice, from their responses. These stories and the broader, aggregated, thematic, outcomes have been used to examine the Sci-ID model. These outcomes stress three main themes related to the study (or not) of science, that include (i) progressive transformational learning and smooth transformation, (ii) progressive transformational learning and wavering transformation and (iii) reconstructive transformational learning and wavering transformation. These themes indicates that people in life accept and reject certain TL experiences that either ‘go with their IIA’ or ‘go against it’. The majority find their way, choose and select TL experiences exhibiting small or medium movement towards or away from science. However, very few people exhibit large movement accompanied by regressive TL experiences. This study also reveals the existence of two very broad kinds of people (i) people who demonstrate stable pro-science or anti science and (ii) ‘fluid’ people who populate the centre-ground between pro-science and anti-science people. The fluid group caught my attention because their IIA shows greater ambivalence and the impact of GF, SA, incorporating events, triggers and interventions appear to have more impact than on those with a more stable science identity. Therefore, through six science education-based interventions I was able to work with – and influence - more ‘fluid’ kinds of secondary school girls. I used a number of mini-transformative experiences that led them to gain appreciation of science-based education and possible future science careers.