This study is according to the assumption of Systems dynamics approach to discuss the definitions of crisis management theory, and believes that there is not only crisis that happened naturally or simply created by human error, but also self-formed crisis by decision maker: Crisis comes from a decision which was right at that time. After complex interaction in the organization structure, this decision could turn into a serious crisis. If we can find out which decision would created crisis like that, or change the wrong structure, manager could put more effort on those crisis that could not be predict, and release the resource burden of management. The conclusions of this study are presented as follows: 1. This study divides crisis into two categories: Crisis that formed gradually and accident. The former could be solved by systematic view. 2. Form the history of studied case, we found that if decision maker didn¡¦t think about what side effect might have in the future, it could trigger some of reinforce loops and cause the crisis. And the reason of why they make the wrong decision is caused by the mental models of what could be right. 3. Each of the Fifth disciplines of learning organization could make the organizations more healthy, it could have chance to avoid all the troubles in this case study, and keep the decision makers and members of organization from making wrong decision according to their mental models.

Este estudo tem como objetivo desenvolver um modelo de Dinâmica de Sistemas para analisar e avaliar a dinâmica econômica do processo de terceirização logística visando elaborar políticas que permitam maximizar os ganhos nesse processo e alcançar os retornos positivos desejados pela empresa. Assume-se que a tomada de decisão a favor da terceirização já foi tomada pela empresa. Foram incluídos no modelo desenvolvido os custos anteriores à implantação, denominados como custos ex-ante, e os custos após o início de operações terceirizadas, chamados de ex-post, para entender como todos estes influem no Valor Presente Líquido (VPL) do processo de terceirização logística. O modelo desenvolvido permitiu também simular variações nas políticas de negócios, como redução dos períodos ex-ante à implantação da operação terceirizada ou no monitoramento interno dos funcionários da empresa no mesmo período ex-ante, a fim de conhecer se os resultados financeiros esperados desse processo foram atingidos. Também permite entender melhor o impacto dos juros ou da inflação no processo de terceirização logística, ao poder-se alterar estes parâmetros e entender quando estes têm um impacto destrutivo menor. Buscar-se-á, neste estudo, manter a análise da dinâmica do processo de terceirização logística dentro do contexto brasileiro. A perspectiva é a do tomador de decisão de terceirização ou contratante de serviços principalmente em empresas de produtos de bens de consumo não duráveis, encontrados em varejos / supermercados. Chegou-se às seguintes conclusões: que o período ex-ante do processo de terceirização tem uma importância crucial nos resultados do processo. Sua redução, junto com uma política de monitoramento pró-ativo das operações internas, gera um bom resultado. Concluiu-se também que é importante haver uma economia estável com baixos juros e inflação e que a empresa também deve estar financeiramente estável. A terceirização logística não é boa opção para empresas em situação financeira precária, pois poderia causar-lhes um dano real muito maior que os resultados positivos esperados. / This study has the objective of developing a systems dynamics’ model to analyze and evaluate the economical dynamics of the logistics outsourcing process in order to elaborate policies that allow minimizing the losses in this process and obtaining the positive returns aimed by the company. It is assumed that the decision favorable towards the outsourcing has already taken by the company. Included in the model were the costs prior to the implementation, called ex-ante costs, and the costs after the beginning of the outsourced operations, called ex-post, in order to understand how all these influence the Net Present Value (NPV) of the logistics outsourcing process. The developed model allows simulating variations in business policies like the reduction of the ex-ante times prior to the implementation of the outsourced operation, or the internal monitoring of the company’s employees in that same ex-ante period, in order to know if the expected financial results of this process have been reached. It also allows a better understanding of the impact of interest rates and inflation on the logistics outsourcing process, as these parameters can be modified and understand when they have a smaller destructive impact. This study will try to remain within the analysis of the dynamics of the logistics outsourcings in the Brazilian context. The perspective is of the outsourcing decision maker or services contracting responsible mainly of consumer packaged goods (CPG) normally found in retail supermarkets. The conclusions reached were that the ex-ante period of the outsourcing process is of crucial importance on the results of this process. Its reduction together with a proactive internal operations monitoring policy generate a good result. It was also observed that it is important to have a stable economy with low inflation and interests and that the company needs to also be financially stable, not being a good option for companies in a bad financial situation to outsource their logistics because it could cause them a much bigger real loss than the expected positive results.

Current policy and research have led the field of science education towards a model of "science as practice." In the past decade, several research programs on model-based reasoning practices in education have articulated key dimensions of practice, including constructing and defending models, comparing models to empirical data, using representations to identify patterns in data and use those as inscriptions to buttress arguments. This study presents a detailed case of how the use of a physical microcosm and children's self-directed representations of an ecosystem constrained and afforded student sense-making in an urban elementary classroom. The case analyzed the experiences of a 10-year old fifth grade student, Jorge, and the variation in his expressed understanding of ecosystems as he interacted with academic tasks, along with models and representations, to design, observe and explain an ecological microcosm. The study used a conceptual framework that brings together theories of situated cognition and Doyle's work on academic task to explain how and why Jorge's perception and communication of dimensions of ecosystem structure, function, and behavior appear to "come in and out of focus," influenced by the affordances of the tools and resources available, the academic task as given by the teacher, and Jorge's own experiences and knowledge of phenomena related to ecosystems. Findings from this study suggest that elementary students' ability or inability to address particular ecological concepts in a given task relate less to gaps in their understanding and more to the structure of academic tasks and learning contexts. The process of a student interacting with curriculum follows a dynamic trajectory and leads to emergent outcomes. As a result of the complex interactions of task, tools, and his own interests and agency, Jorge's attunement to the role of water in ecosystems comes in and out of focus throughout the unit. The instructional constraint of needing to integrate the FOSS Water Cycle curriculum into the Bottle Biology Project became an affordance for Jorge to ask questions, observe, and theorize about the role of water and the water cycle in an ecosystem. The practice of modeling a closed ecosystem made salient to Jorge the boundaries of a system and the conservation of water within that system. The closed ecosystem model also presented constraints to students' sense making about the role of interactions when students lack domain knowledge in ecology. Relying on students' own talk, photographs and representations as explanations of phenomena in the Bio Bottle, without establishing norms of representational conventions and communication, resulted in missed opportunities for Jorge to reinforce his sense making during the activity and to develop conventions of scientific representation. Findings from this study can be used to inform the design and implementation of learning environments and curricular activities for elementary and middle school students that address all three dimensions of the Next Generation Science Standards: a) developing conceptual understanding of key concepts in the domain of ecology, b) the cross-cutting concept of systems, and c) multiple practices that ecologists use in developing and evaluating models that explain ecosystem structures, functions, and change over time.

Este trabalho elaborou um modelo computacional representativo das relações entre os componentes determinantes do comportamento do sistema de ensino superior que permitiu a execução de simulações de diferentes cenários para avaliação da adoção de políticas públicas. Utilizando a metodologia de Dinâmica de Sistemas e abordando o ensino superior como um sistema complexo, utilizou-se um paralelo da qualidade da educação sob a ótica da gestão de operações que utiliza o grau de atendimento das demandas do cliente como parâmetro. Para levantamento das características do ensino superior brasileiro foi realizada uma revisão da literatura, seguida de uma série de entrevistas com profissionais ligados ao ensino superior, incluindo gestores de instituições de ensino superior, coordenadores de cursos de graduação, especialistas em educação e especialistas em pesquisa, englobando instituições públicas e privadas de três regiões do país: sul, sudeste e nordeste. Foram identificados três principais clientes que tiveram suas demandas do ensino superior representadas no modelo: estudantes, empregadores e a sociedade. Adotando a habilitação financeira de estudantes a partir de financiamentos, bolsas ou vagas em instituições públicas como o principal fator foco de políticas públicas, foram realizadas simulações de nove diferentes cenários futuros até 2060. Foram considerados três níveis distintos de ofertas de educação superior, com os cenários distribuindo os focos da habilitação financeira de formas diferentes entre eles. Além disso, as simulações também consideraram a variação na demanda por profissionais formados nestes três níveis. Os resultados demonstraram cenários que variaram entre pouco efeito na produtividade, um ganho maior no curto prazo e um ganho maior no longo prazo. As simulações permitiram também identificar uma forte demanda pelo ensino superior no Brasil, sendo que o fator limitante para ingresso se demonstrou ser puramente a questão financeira, não havendo barreira para entrada em função de baixa qualidade da formação anterior dos estudantes. Como contribuições teóricas o processo de modelagem estabeleceu um modelo de estratificação do ensino superior que permite avaliar o seu desempenho de forma desagregada. Como contribuições práticas, o modelo gerado pode ser utilizado para aprendizado e testes de ações de forma a auxiliar no processo de tomada de decisão por gestores públicos. Finalmente o modelo sugere alguns aspectos que foram desconsiderados na modelagem como focos de estudos futuros. / This study developed a computational model representing the relations between the behavior determinants of the higher education system that was used to run different simulation scenarios in order to evaluate the adoption of public policies. Using Systems Dynamics and approaching higher education as a complex system, the analisys used the quality perspective from operations management that uses satisfaction of customers needs as a parameter for quality. A literature review was carried out to survey the characteristics of Brazilian higher education, followed by a series of interviews with professionals related to higher education, including managers of higher education institutions, coordinators of undergraduate courses, education specialists and research specialists, including public and private institutions in three regions of the country: South, Southeast and Northeast. Three main clients were identified who had their higher education needs represented in the model: students, employers and society. Adopting the financial enabling of students from financing, scholarships or acceptance in public institutions as the main focus of public policies, simulations of nine different future scenarios were carried out until 2060. Three distinct levels of offerings of higher education were considered, with the scenarios distributing the foci of financial enablement in different proportions among them. The simulations also considered the variation in demand for professionals educated at these three different levels. The results showed scenarios that varied between little effect on productivity, a greater gain in the short term and a greater gain in the long term. The simulations also demonstrated a strong demand for higher education in Brazil, and the limiting factor for admission was shown to be purely financial reasons, with no barrier to entry due to poor quality of the students\' previous education. As theoretical contributions, the modeling process established a stratification model of higher education that allows its performance evaluation in a disaggregated way. As a practical contribution, the generated model can be used for learning and testing of actions in order to assist in the decision making process by public managers. Finally the model suggests some aspects that were disregarded in the modeling as possible foci for future studies.

Este estudo foca a gestão de estoques em cadeias de suprimentos. São construídos modelos de simulação para investigar diferentes estratégias de reposição de estoques em uma cadeia de suprimentos com dois estágios. São utilizadas técnicas de simulação por dinâmica de sistemas para o desenvolvimento dos modelos. Para tanto, analisa-se uma cadeia de suprimentos formada por dois agentes, um varejista e um fornecedor. Estes agentes devem tomar as decisões de reposição de estoques, definindo quantidades e momentos em que os materiais são adquiridos. Os objetivos principais do trabalho são: levantar na literatura quais são as principais estratégias para a gestão de estoques na cadeia de suprimentos, desenvolver modelos de simulação para as estratégias mais significativas, identificar qual das estratégias analisadas é a mais atraente para o fabricante, para o varejista e para a cadeia de suprimentos como um todo e ilustrar como a metodologia de simulação pode ser utilizada no estudo de estratégias de gestão de estoques. Três estratégias principais são identificadas na literatura e modeladas. Na primeira estratégia, os agentes tomam decisões independentemente e não compartilham informações. Na segunda estratégia, os agentes compartilham informações, mas as decisões continuam a ser tomadas independentemente. Na terceira estratégia, as decisões de reposição de estoques são tomadas pelo fornecedor, que tem acesso a todas as informações sobre venda e estoque no varejista. Observa-se que a amplificação na variação dos pedidos de um estágio para outro se reduz com o compartilhamento de informações e a centralização das decisões, sendo que esta última estratégia se mostra como a mais eficiente. O método utilizado demonstra-se bastante eficaz e pode ser usado para simular outras estratégias de reposição de estoque que não estão sendo analisadas no presente estudo. / This study focuses in the inventory management in supply chains. Simulation models are developed in order to investigate different inventory replenishment strategies in a two-echelon supply chain. Systems dynamics techniques are used to develop the models. Its analyzed a supply chain formed by two agents, a retailer and a supplier. These agents take inventory replenishment decisions, defining quantities and moments in which materials must be acquired. The main objectives of this work are: research in the literature the main inventory replenishment strategies for supply chains, develop simulation models for the main strategies, identify what strategy is more attractive for the supplier, the retailer and for the whole supply chain and illustrate how the simulation methodology can be used in the study of inventory management strategies. Three main strategies are identified in the literature and modeled. In the first strategy, the agents take decisions independently and dont share information. In the second strategy, the agents share information, but continue to take decisions independently. In the third strategy, the inventory replenishment decisions are taken by the supplier, which has access to all information about selling and inventory in the retailer. It is observed that the amplification in the supplier orders variation compared with the demand variation at the retailer are reduced with information share and decisions centralization, this last strategy being the more effective. It is demonstrated that the method is very effective and could be used to simulate other strategies that are not analyzed in this study.

Franklin H. Moss and Adrian Segall. / Bibliography: p. 72. / "September 1978." / Supported by the Advanced Research Project Agency (monitored by ONR) under Contract no. N00014-75-C-1183 Technion Research and Development Foundation Ltd. no. 050-383

Franklin H. Moss and Adrian Segall. / Bibliography: p. 42. / "September 1978." / Supported by the Advanced Research Project Agency (monitored by ONR) under Contract no. N00014-75-C-1183 Technion Research and Development Foundation Ltd. no. 050-383

The presence of multipath propagation in indoor environments limits the performance of wideband radio communication systems and also the maximum data rate that can be feasible. This thesis addresses the dynamics of propagation mechanisms needed to design and exploit future broadband wireless local area networks in the 60GHz millimetre-wave band. The frequency band between 62-63GHz with data rates up to 155Mb/s, has been provisionally assigned for Mobile Broadband Systems. The main emphasis of this study was to provide an original contribution to the development, design and planning of future broadband communication systems using new high-resolution wideband channel measurement data. Based on this data, spatial and temporal statistics of several line-of-sight radio paths in a University campus are presented and analysed. In order to enable measurement of the wideband propagation characteristics a high-resolution (Ins) wideband Frequency-swept channel sounder was designed and implemented at 62.4GHz. The channel sounder has been built around a Vector Network Analyser to measure the complex transfer function of the channel. The instantaneous coherence bandwidth is found to be highly variable with the location of the receiver with respect to the base station. With delay spread values ranging from 20 to 70ns the coherence bandwidth remains most of the times below 10MHz. Based on the maximum delay spread of 68ns obtained in a 41m long narrow corridor, a BER of 10" 3 and normalised delay spread of 0.1, the minimum data transmission rate is estimated at 1.47 Mb/s. For a 12.80m room environment with maximum delay spread of 20ns the minimum data transmission rate is 5Mb/s. To achieve higher data transmission rates channel protection countermeasures appears to be necessary. However limiting the extent of a picocell size and utilising the potential capability of frequency re-use at 62.4GHz can result in radio network implementation without the complexity of countermeasures. Results relating to coherence bandwidth variability in multipath conditions confirm that higher user mobility envisaged for MBS would present a real challenge to the achievement of data transmission rates of the order of 155Mb/s. The research work reported in the thesis has been able to identify and extract from extensive high resolution wideband propagation the necessary design characteristics for the development of realistic radio planning models. Using measured results obtained in a number of radio paths geometries, the objectives of the project have been largely achieved and further work is recommended.

Este estudo foca a gestão de estoques em cadeias de suprimentos. São construídos modelos de simulação para investigar diferentes estratégias de reposição de estoques em uma cadeia de suprimentos com dois estágios. São utilizadas técnicas de simulação por dinâmica de sistemas para o desenvolvimento dos modelos. Para tanto, analisa-se uma cadeia de suprimentos formada por dois agentes, um varejista e um fornecedor. Estes agentes devem tomar as decisões de reposição de estoques, definindo quantidades e momentos em que os materiais são adquiridos. Os objetivos principais do trabalho são: levantar na literatura quais são as principais estratégias para a gestão de estoques na cadeia de suprimentos, desenvolver modelos de simulação para as estratégias mais significativas, identificar qual das estratégias analisadas é a mais atraente para o fabricante, para o varejista e para a cadeia de suprimentos como um todo e ilustrar como a metodologia de simulação pode ser utilizada no estudo de estratégias de gestão de estoques. Três estratégias principais são identificadas na literatura e modeladas. Na primeira estratégia, os agentes tomam decisões independentemente e não compartilham informações. Na segunda estratégia, os agentes compartilham informações, mas as decisões continuam a ser tomadas independentemente. Na terceira estratégia, as decisões de reposição de estoques são tomadas pelo fornecedor, que tem acesso a todas as informações sobre venda e estoque no varejista. Observa-se que a amplificação na variação dos pedidos de um estágio para outro se reduz com o compartilhamento de informações e a centralização das decisões, sendo que esta última estratégia se mostra como a mais eficiente. O método utilizado demonstra-se bastante eficaz e pode ser usado para simular outras estratégias de reposição de estoque que não estão sendo analisadas no presente estudo. / This study focuses in the inventory management in supply chains. Simulation models are developed in order to investigate different inventory replenishment strategies in a two-echelon supply chain. Systems dynamics techniques are used to develop the models. Its analyzed a supply chain formed by two agents, a retailer and a supplier. These agents take inventory replenishment decisions, defining quantities and moments in which materials must be acquired. The main objectives of this work are: research in the literature the main inventory replenishment strategies for supply chains, develop simulation models for the main strategies, identify what strategy is more attractive for the supplier, the retailer and for the whole supply chain and illustrate how the simulation methodology can be used in the study of inventory management strategies. Three main strategies are identified in the literature and modeled. In the first strategy, the agents take decisions independently and dont share information. In the second strategy, the agents share information, but continue to take decisions independently. In the third strategy, the inventory replenishment decisions are taken by the supplier, which has access to all information about selling and inventory in the retailer. It is observed that the amplification in the supplier orders variation compared with the demand variation at the retailer are reduced with information share and decisions centralization, this last strategy being the more effective. It is demonstrated that the method is very effective and could be used to simulate other strategies that are not analyzed in this study.

Orientador: Orlando Fontes Lima Junior / Dissertação (mestrado) - Universidade Estadual de Campinas, Faculdade de Engenharia Civil, Arquitetura e Urbanismo / Made available in DSpace on 2018-08-11T22:02:07Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Pinto_JanainaAntonino_M.pdf: 1177906 bytes, checksum: 001c546a8dc43c107f8f3c0bdaae25ca (MD5) Previous issue date: 2007 / Resumo: Este estudo teve como objetivo desenvolver um modelo de simulação, utilizando sistemas dinâmicos, para a análise de diferentes políticas de logística hospitalar. O modelo permite analisar de forma integrada como a gestão de diferentes políticas de estoque e de capacidades influenciam o custo do atendimento no hospital. Na modelagem consideraram-se como principais fatores a gestão de estoque de medicamentos e a capacidade de atendimento, que é definida pela disponibilidade de mão-de-obra especializada (médicos). Dois outros importantes fatores foram considerados como restrições de capacidade: a disponibilidade de macas e de equipamentos. Para demonstrar a aplicabilidade do modelo, um estudo de caso foi desenvolvido no pronto socorro do Hospital de Clínicas da Unicamp (Universidade Estadual de Campinas), onde foi realizada a análise dos diferentes cenários, integrando as políticas de estoque, capacidade e seus custos. Após análise destes cenários, estratégias integradas de políticas de estoque e capacidades que reduzissem o custo de atendimento foram propostas. / Abstract: The main objective of this dissertation is to develop a simulation model, using systems dynamics, to analyze different hospital logistic policies. The model allows an integrated analysis of how the management of different stock and capacities policies impacts the hospital attendance costs. The main factors of this process considered in the modeling are the medicine stock management and attendance capacity, defined as the specialized work source availability (physicians). Other important factors in this process were considered as capacity restrictions: hammock and equipments availability. In order to show the model suitability, the Emergency Room of Unicamp Clínicas Hospital case was studied. Different scenarios analyses were done combining stock policies, capacities and their costs. Using these results, integrated strategies of stock policies and capacities were proposed in order to reduce costs. / Mestrado / Transportes / Mestre em Engenharia Civil