Thesis (S.M.)--Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Engineering Systems Division, Technology and Policy Program, 2005. / Includes bibliographical references (p. 97-102). / China's recent entry into the World Trade Organization (WTO) in December 2001 has lent speed to an ongoing series of market reforms that has opened up the massive Chinese domestic market to the world. The thought of China selling its products and services freely in global markets in exchange for opening up its own growing domestic market of 1.2 billion people is staggering and demands for business and policy decision makers to have an understanding of China's unique investment landscape. Centering on technology venturing in the telecommunications sector in mainland China, this research identifies and analyzes patterns of deal-making and strategies that motivate business investments in the technology space in mainland China. Three investment orientations - cost- minimization, domestic market-driven and joint development - are proposed and verified using the research data. Data was collected on all publicly-reported deals in China, published in business reporting services in the English language including the China Business Review, Reuters, Investext, Dow Jones, and The Economist Intelligence Unit. Objective data on deal attributes was matched with subjective and evaluative data on strategies and expected deal significance. By performing content analysis and statistical analysis on the data collected, results were obtained regarding the investment orientations in mainland China of two companies, UTStarcom Inc. and Nortel Networks Corp. It was found that significant differences existed in the objective and subjective attributes of telecommunications business ventures in China. / (cont.) The two companies that were studied exhibited all proposed investment orientations, including the third joint development orientation that is emerging and directing investments into Sino-foreign partnership opportunities that jointly developed 3G products for the international market. There is a decreasing trend in number of Sino-foreign import contracts and an increasing trend in Sino-foreign exports in telecoms. These results point to the emergence of Chinese telecom companies that compete strongly in the Chinese marketplace and in international markets. Three deal drivers are identified from the deals that were studied, along with several possible risk-bearing changes that might result from policy influences in China. Difficulties in tracking deals are described and the implications of the research findings from a business and policy perspective are discussed. / by Tony Whey Yit Lim. / S.M.

Thesis (S.M.)--Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Engineering Systems Division, Technology and Policy Program, 2004. / Includes bibliographical references (leaf 54). / Clusters comprise of a particular set of ingredients, which includes researchers, entrepreneurs, venture capitalists, well-trained and educated workers, and specialized professional services. The importance of each ingredient is undeniable, yet the proximity to research centers and institutions is perhaps the most critical element of success for technology clusters. This thesis focuses on the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), and examines its role in the development of the biomedical industry cluster in Cambridge, Massachusetts. However, while the important role that academic institutions play in the process of transforming science to marketable technology is acknowledged, the question of who are the actual researchers most intimately involved in this process remains unanswered. Drawing on quantitative data, we show that the majority of commercially related research work is performed by a small fraction of the researchers, and this group is heterogeneous in characteristics. Moreover, through a novel way of examining publication data, we also show that the commercial productivity of each researcher is positively related to the researcher's relative level of applied science research. Over the past two years, Singapore has been among the most aggressive of the East Asian countries in pursuing the development of its biotechnology industry. By benchmarking Singapore against MIT, we recommend that Singapore raise its level of applied science research, to improve the integration of academic research into the marketplace. / by Kenny Hwee Seong Ching. / S.M.

Thesis (S.M.)--Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Engineering Systems Division, Technology and Policy Program, 2008. / This electronic version was submitted by the student author. The certified thesis is available in the Institute Archives and Special Collections. / Includes bibliographical references (p. 122-128). / Geothermal district heating experience in the U.S. is reviewed and evaluated to explore the potential impact of utilizing this frequently undervalued renewable energy resource for space and hot water heating. Although the first U.S. geothermal district heating system (GDHS) was constructed in the 1890s in Boise, Idaho, growth in the sector has been slow. Currently there are only twenty-one operating GDHS in the U.S. with a capacity of about 100 MW thermal. In this study the main barriers and enablers to the growth of district heating were identified and investigated. Initially a literature review and interviews with current U.S. district heating operators were used to collect data on various aspects of the systems and their development. Based on analysis of the data and the current structure of the geothermal district heating regulatory and market environment in the U.S. recommendations on how to advance geothermal district heating in the U.S. are developed. Technical feasibility of increasing the geothermal district heating capacity to 10,000 MWt was established by identifying the available resource and technology for utilization. Furthermore, the opportunity presented by Engineered Geothermal System (EGS) was briefly explored. Social feasibility was analyzed and the need for geothermal energy education and expanded resource exploration was recognized. Furthermore, it is hypothesized that most government support for GDHS will come from state governments in the future and the importance of well structured incentives that support the growth of sustainable GDHS emphasized. Legal and regulatory barriers were reviewed along with the economic feasibility of GDHS. The economic analysis revealed competitive levelized energy costs and that rising drilling costs might be a barrier to GDHS development. A modest investment of about five billion dollars is needed to increase U.S. GDHS capacity to 10,000 MW thermal. / by Hildigunnur H. Thorsteinsson. / S.M.

Thesis (S.M.)--Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Engineering Systems Division, Technology and Policy Program, 2007. / This electronic version was submitted by the student author. The certified thesis is available in the Institute Archives and Special Collections. / Includes bibliographical references. / Using partnerships between the public and private sectors to provide emergency preparedness and response (EPER) functions has become a useful and necessary tool for improving overall emergency management in the United States. Privatization has been studied comprehensively in many areas that are ripe for partnerships, but not in the field of emergency preparedness and response. Thus, this research fills that gap and advises both the architects of EPER partnerships and the policy makers that influence them, how to design partnerships based on the experience of former and existing EPER partnerships. In order to learn from existing partnerships, this research uses a case study method. After identifying and interviewing representatives from 16 EPER partnerships, this research classifies those partnerships based on several attributes. There are three general categories for those descriptive attributes: structural, functional and event. The structural attributes represent characteristics of a partnership that an architect has decision making power over. Functional and event attributes, on the other hand, are dependent on the EPER function being provided and are thus largely pre-defined for an architect. / (cont.) This research identifies links between the independent variables -- the functional and event attributes -- and the dependent variables -- the structural attributes -- that will guide architects and policy makers in their decision making processes. In general, this research found that there are several event and functional attributes of successful past EPER partnerships that can inform the structural decisions of the architect. Also, this research finds that there are several lessons the policy maker can take from past EPER partnerships, including the importance of allowing and encouraging flexibility in the partnership design process. / by Jennifer L. Gustetic. / S.M.

Thesis (S.M.)--Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Engineering Systems Division, Technology and Policy Program, 2005. / Includes bibliographical references (p. 114-115). / This thesis focuses on determining the cost of customization for different components or groups of components of a car. It offers a methodology to estimate the manufacturing cost of a complex system such as a car. This methodology includes specific consideration of how costs change as customized variants of each component or grouping of parts are included. The central conclusion of the thesis is some recommendations for the automakers when they are facing customization decisions. The automotive industry has reached a mature state, as is evidenced by its growth and by the nature of competition and industry consolidation. Consumers are no longer satisfied with the models that are not individualized and demand a greater variety and individuality. Consequently the automakers are moving towards custom-made cars by customizing the shape and style of components; and this at a certain price. While product variety enables the firm to charge higher prices, automotive customization means also producing at lower production volumes, thereby increasing manufacturing costs and eroding profits. Understanding the cost of customization depends heavily on component cost structures. It is considered that this cost is equal to the difference between the price of a baseline and customized product. A methodology, called Systems Cost Modeling (SCM), is developed in the thesis to build cost structures when estimates for a large number of components have to be considered. After gathering detailed empirical data and considering the eventual changes in the processing conditions of all parts due to customization, the tooling and equipment investment as well as the labor and energy cost are estimated for both the standard and customized car. / (cont.) After determining the drivers of the customization cost, a sensitivity analysis is done to understand the variations of this cost under different operating conditions. Finally these results explain that the cost of customization is very sensitive to part and process characteristics. / by Laëtitia Fournier. / S.M.

Thesis (S.M.)--Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Engineering Systems Division, Technology and Policy Program, 2005. / Includes bibliographical references (p. 89-92). / In China, elevated levels of urban air pollution result in significant adverse health impacts for its large and rapidly growing urban population. An expanded version of the Emissions Prediction and Policy Analysis (EPPA), EPPA Health Effects China (EPPA-HEC), was used to evaluate air pollution-related health impacts on the Chinese economy. EPPA-HEC, a computable general equilibrium model, was expanded to endogenously estimate the economy- wide impacts of air pollution. The effects of particulate matter (PM 10), sulfur dioxide (S02) and nitrogen oxides (NOx) were evaluated for 1970 to 2000, based on a set of epidemiological estimates of the effects of exposure to these pollutants. The estimated GDP impact to the Chinese economy of pollution levels above the WHO's recommended thresholds (ambient levels) increased from $15 ($23) billion in 1970 to $50 ($79) billion in 2000 (1997 $USD), despite improvements in overall air quality. This increase was caused by the growing urban population and rising wages that thus increased the value of lost labor and leisure. The benefit Damages as a percent of GDP decreased from a peak of 16% (10%) in 1975 to 7% (4%) in 2000 because the total size of the economy grew much more rapidly than the absolute air pollution damages. Forward simulations considered a cap on pollution, a greenhouse gas policy, and the two policies combined. The ancillary benefits from air pollution control resulting from the climate policy resulted in an increase in China's GDP of $2.4 billion in 2010. A scenario that caps air pollutant emissions at 2005 levels results in a $3.9 billion benefit to China's GDP in 2010, and the implementation of both policies results in a $5.8 billion benefit to China's GDP in 2010. / (cont.) The simulations extended to 2025, and the beneficial effects of these policies increased over the period to $17.1 billion, $37.4 billion and $43.8 billion respectively. Taking both the future and the historical analyses together, it is clear that the size of the urban population, as well as the increasing value of time due to rising wages are two of the major drivers of the increasing absolute costs of pollution-related health impacts to the Chinese economy. Thus, urbanization and rising incomes and wage rates over time imply a rising marginal benefit to pollution control. / by Kira J. Matus. / S.M.

Thesis (S.M.)--Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Engineering Systems Division, Technology and Policy Program, February 2002. / Includes bibliographical references. / Thesis (S.M.)--Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Department of Electrical Engineering and Computer Science, February 2002. / Introduction: If the emergence of the World Wide Web was the communications and business phenomenon of the 1990' s, then the Mobile Web is already poised to be the darling of the next phase of the personal communications evolution. Consumers are already bombarded with a panoply of mobile communications products and services: wireless telephony, cellular handset mini-browsers, short message services, text paging. Driven by either personal or business habits forged on the traditional Internet, the perception is that consumers are increasingly turning to technologies that enable continuous or ad hoc information access in mobile situations, such as driving in a car or walking down the street. These technologies are primarily viewed as complements to, and not replacements for, the traditional modes of information access. As the name would suggest, the addition of the term "Voice Web" to the lexicon suggests yet another mode of mobile information access: speech interaction. While many of the technologies that support general speech recognition applications are hardly new, the consumer is infrequently exposed to anything more substantial than the most trivial of interactions, e.g. "Press or say '1.'" The relative anonymity of speech-interactive applications, coupled with the intoxicating (if not gratuitous) use of the term "Web," has created the perception that a new era of information access is about to dawn on the mobile consumer landscape, e.g. The Kelsey Group forecasts that by the year 2005, 45 million users will propel the voice market to $12 billion annually, more than $5 billion of which will be generated by advertising and commerce.2 The concern is not whether such estimations or projections are merited, but that the uncritical acceptance of the patently ambiguous Voice Web overlooks the multiplicity of dynamic forces that will come to bear on the evolution of the voice market in general. -- How does the structure of the historically vertically-integrated speech industry affect the evolution of the market? -- How will applications be accessed, e.g. democratic web of sites or carrier-specific private network? -- Are all the necessary technology platforms, networks, and standards in place to support the desired vision of the voice market? -- Who owns the direct relationship with the consumer, and how does service pricing affect both the quantity and quality of applications? -- What are the trademark issues involved in providing access to audio content already on the Internet, i.e. does a voice service provider need CNN's permission to play audio files freely accessible on the CNN website? -- What limitations does the telephony voice user interface impose on the application space? -- Ultimately, will the applications being proposed provide significant value for the consumer., thereby creating sufficient demand to seed further development? Given the complex interplay of the technological, economic, regulatory, and even human factors suggested above, the realization of the Voice Web concept is certainly not assured. As the opening quote from Dr. Meisel suggests, the pre-existence of the speech and Internet industries should not lull the reader into assuming that these two worlds will naturally merge into a single coherent and intuitive service model. While recent standardization efforts indicate a desire to extend the Internet service framework to voice applications, there has been little critical analysis of whether these technological innovations are sufficient to the task; moreover, other market factors (e.g. economics) are accorded little consideration in light of their potential impact on the evolution of the industry. For firms individually and the industry collectively, the success of the Voice Web ultimately depends on the anticipation of and appreciation for these interdisciplinary factors. This paper represents an attempt at a framework for both enumerating and negotiating these complex interrelationships, for the purpose of answering the following question: "Will a Voice Web model naturally arise from existing industry structures and market forces?" or conversely, "What is required to ensure the realization of the Voice Web?" / by David E. Pearah. / S.M.

Thesis (S.M.)--Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Engineering Systems Division, Technology and Policy Program, 2007. / This electronic version was submitted by the student author. The certified thesis is available in the Institute Archives and Special Collections. / Includes bibliographical references (p. 108-112). / This thesis proposes a practical approach to defining flexible design and development strategies for maximizing the expected value of engineering systems. Specifically, the approach deals with the fact that it is generally computationally impractical to explore all the possible ways a system might be developed and operated, given the large number of possible scenarios in which the system might evolve. To make the analysis tractable within the computational resources available, it proposes that designers and program managers use a catalog of representative operating plans built from combinations of design elements and management decision rules. These are associated with a range of possible scenarios of uncertain variables that might affect the system's expected value and performance. This work develops the novel methodology introduced by (de Neufville, 2006) to guide the search for catalogs of operating plans while aiming at minimizing computational effort. It assumes a model of the engineering system is available, together with several value/performance metrics such as Expected Net Present Value (ENPV) and Value At Risk and Gain (VARG). It uses an algorithm based on statistical experiment design, Adaptive One-Factor-At-a-Time (OFAT) (Frey and Wang, 2006; Wang, 2007), to search the combinatorial space in light of system's responses to a limited set of uncertain variable scenarios. / (cont.) Two case studies demonstrate the benefits of the analysis methodology. One is inspired from the development of a parking garage near the Bluewater commercial center in the United Kingdom. The other relates to the development of a real estate project in the United States. Results from case studies show improvement compared to inflexible design of engineering systems while still requiring minimal computational effort. This, together with appropriate policy recommendations, provides incentives for dissemination of the analysis methodology in industry and government. The simplicity of the methodology and use of tools already familiar to the firm and government agency alleviate political barriers to implementation. It allows designers and program managers to remain within established framework, rules, and management constraints. It favors transparent presentation and efficient application to design and management of engineering systems, thus allowing program managers to present the natural evolution of decisions to senior decision-makers. / by Michel-Alexandre Cardin. / S.M.

Thesis (S.M.)--Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Engineering Systems Division, Technology and Policy Program, 2007. / Includes bibliographical references (p. 72-79). / This thesis examines the impact of aircraft emissions on local air quality by performing two analyses: an assessment of U.S. commercial aircraft contribution to county budgets of primary pollutants in nonattainment areas, and an assessment of the health effects caused by commercial aircraft emissions that serve as precursors to changes in ozone and ambient particulate matter (PM). Based on 148 airports located in 134 counties, this work found that for the base year 2002, the commercial aircraft contribution to county budgets of primary pollutants of CO, NOx, SOx, VOCs, PM2.5, and PM10 ranged from less than 0.01% to as high as 36.36% with an average contribution of 0.82%. The average contribution for CO was found to be 0.81%, NOx 1.73%, SOx 1.39%, VOCs 0.67%, PM2.5 0.24%, and PM0o 0.07%. In general, this research found public health detriments resulting predominantly from PM2.5 related to aircraft emissions. However, the inventories used for the health impacts analysis are not consistent with the inventories that are described above and have several known errors. Therefore the results are presented only to illustrate the methodologies rather than as a good estimate of the health impacts. Notably, ozone disbenefits occurred with the removal of aircraft emissions of NOx. Urban cores experienced increased levels of ozone resulting in a net increase in incidences of ozone-related health endpoints. There are several limitations to the work described in this thesis. In particular, the inventories used for assessing the health impacts may be in error by as much as +50% and the air quality simulations were completed for only 4 months of the year. Therefore, the primary contribution of this thesis is in providing a description of the methodologies that will be used later within a more comprehensive study. / by Gayle L. Ratliff. / S.M.

Thesis (S.M.)--Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Engineering Systems Division, Technology and Policy Program, 2005. / Includes bibliographical references (leaves 166-170). / Brazil's transformation from an agriculturally-based colonial economy to an industrial republic spans seven decades - from the 1930s to the present - with three rapid growth phases which were each followed by economic and social chaos. Three administrations of different political persuasions implemented policies that brought surges of foreign direct investment, foreign technology, and mechanization to Brazil. The nation's economy grew at an astounding rate - for several years at the highest rate in the world - but increased industrialization only increased the gap between the rich and the poor, and failed to provide the long-term employment and domestic investment required for sustainable advancement. Brazil has a stable economy again, and ready for another period of rapid growth. However, future economic growth for the long-term will be dependent on aiding sectors that have been left behind in previous decades. What is needed is a set of policies that addresses the inequality within regions, poverty in the rural and urban environment, vast income inequality, and sustainable rural development. Combined with renewed investment in domestic innovation, community-based solutions can increase the returns on national investment in development. By working with community partners in low-income areas, appropriate solutions can be introduced to an environment of long-term support. A joint project between MIT, the Universidade de Sio Paulo, and the Escola de Canuani in rural Tocantins, Brazil, serves as an example of how partnerships between local and outside organizations can introduce organizational and technical solutions adapted to local needs and constraints. / (cont.) In January 2005, this interdisciplinary team worked in Brazil with community partners to introduce technology at levels as different as evaporative cooling by pottery and a computer center to address the challenges and ambitions of their everyday life. The technology case studies are not to determine success but rather to discover what needs to be in place for their implementation. A similar model of incorporating community input in program design and execution could be used in national development plans with greater effect than previous methods. / by Stephanie K. Dalquist. / S.M.