Thesis (S.M.)--Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Engineering Systems Division, Technology and Policy Program, 2005. / Includes bibliographical references (p. 66-68). / Model uncertainties can have a significant impact on decisions regarding licensing basis changes. We present a methodology to identify basic events in the risk assessment that have the potential to change the decision and are known to have significant model uncertainties. Because we work with basic event probabilities, this methodology is not appropriate for analyzing uncertainties that cause a structural change to the model, such as success criteria. We use the Risk Achievement Worth (RAW) importance measure with respect to both the core damage frequency (CDF) and the change in core damage frequency (ACDF) to identify potentially important basic events. We cross-check these with generically important model uncertainties. Then, sensitivity analysis is performed on the basic event probabilities, which are used as a proxy for the model parameters, to determine how much error in these probabilities would need to be present in order to impact the decision. A previously submitted licensing basis change is used as a case study. Analysis using the SAPHIRE program identifies 20 basic events as important, four of which have model uncertainties that have been identified in the literature as generally important. / (cont.) The decision is fairly insensitive to uncertainties in these basic events. In three of these cases, one would need to show that model uncertainties would lead to basic event probabilities that would be between two and four orders of magnitude larger than modeled in the risk assessment before they would become important to the decision. More detailed analysis would be required to determine whether these higher probabilities are reasonable. Methods to perform this analysis from the literature are reviewed and an example is demonstrated using the case study. We then look at policy issues surrounding the effects of uncertainty in decision making related to nuclear power generation. / by Joshua M. Reinert. / S.M.

Thesis (S.M.)--Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Engineering Systems Division, Technology and Policy Program, 2007. / Includes bibliographical references (p. 143-157). / Traffic congestion is becoming a serious problem. As a solution, advanced traveler information systems (ATIS) mitigate traffic congestion by providing real-time traffic information to travelers. ATIS includes various applications such as radio traffic reporting services and websites. Among those, this thesis focuses on more advanced real-time traffic information systems, which provide sophisticated traffic information to drivers via in-vehicle devices such as car navigation systems: we call them ATISN (advanced traveler information systems for vehicles). ATISN has a high potential to mitigate traffic congestion and improve travel for individual drivers. However, in some countries, ATISN has not been accepted well by drivers. To improve this situation, three questions motivate this study: (1) why does ATISN in some parts of the world have more penetration than in others, (2) what can be done to increase the penetration of ATISN, and (3) what kinds of strategic alliances among stakeholders can help to make better ATISNs. This thesis compares three countries, the U.S., Germany, and Japan, by a qualitative analysis of the system dynamics methodology to clarify reasons which have been causing differences in the penetration. / (cont.) Additionally, a new supply chain model based on McQueen's model is used. Furthermore, stakeholder analysis and case studies regarding stakeholder alliances in current ATISNs and highway service operators' strategies for alliances are conducted. In conclusion, from a macro-perspective analysis, many prominent factors in the dynamics of ATISN penetration are found, such as public investment in a public-driven ATISN, the in-vehicle device market, and two-way communication technology development. Furthermore, from analysis for alliances among stakeholders, no absolute best alliances but many possibilities to create alliances for ATISN are clarified, and the use of ATISN as a differentiation tool is suggested as one option worth considering. / b y Yoshihiko Sugawara. / S.M.

Thesis (S.M.)--Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Engineering Systems Division, Technology and Policy Program, 2007. / Includes bibliographical references (p. 131-143). / The airport industry is changing. Once understood as stand-alone public infrastructures, many modern airports now operate within privatized multi-airport systems and contend with previously unknown competitive pressures. As a result, many of the same airports which once enjoyed natural monopolies and government protections must now compete with secondary facilities both for airline patronage and for passenger traffic. Further, changes in the airline industry such as the success of the low-cost carrier, ongoing consolidation, and possible changes to the hub structure now threaten to impose new demands on airport services. In this environment, airport owners are being made to tackle not only significant uncertainty in traffic levels and passenger demand but also the sometimes conflicting needs of varying airline customers. By referencing the experiences of airports across Europe and the US, this paper seeks to highlight strategies for confronting these uncertainties. In particular, research conclusions focus on providing flexible responses that may prove useful given the continued growth of multi-airport systems, expansion of low-cost carriers, and associated industry restructuring. To this end, this thesis presents methodologies for evaluating the financial benefits which may be accrued through applying real options principles at new and developing airports. Two evaluative models, one focused on the construction of airport runway systems and the other on airport terminal design, are presented. Each model - as developed by the author - is designed to permit the simple application of economic and decision analyses in order to gauge the possibility of success in terms of airport cost, accessibility, and patronage. / (cont.) The models are therefore particularly useful for the preliminary evaluation of various airport development strategies, especially within educational contexts. The development of a second major airport outside of Lisbon provides the central case study. / by Richard-Duane Chambers. / S.M.

Thesis (S.M.)--Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Engineering Systems Division, Technology and Policy Program, 2007. / Includes bibliographical references. / This thesis deduces a set of best practices for sustainably scaling up lighting technologies in developing countries with a focus on Bottom-of-the-Pyramid (BOP) communities, whose annual incomes are US $3000 or less (in local purchasing power parity). The best practices are derived from a comparative analysis of two heuristic case studies profiling entrepreneurs based in southern India, who have successfully scaled up lighting technologies in BOP communities. Also discussed is the impact that quality lighting has on our health, safety, socio-economic status and the environment that surrounds us. Not surprisingly the demand for quality artificial lighting is high in these communities, where access is generally limited. SELCO-India, a registered company, sells photovoltaic-based home lighting systems; while THRIVE, a nonprofit organization, sells Light Emitting Diode (LED) lanterns to remote communities in India. Both organizations use alternative models to address the same issue. While the research presented here focuses on the lighting sector in India, it is also proven that the results are applicable in the context of entrepreneurship in BOP communities around the world. / by Pragnya Y. Alekal. / S.M.

Thesis (S.M.)--Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Engineering Systems Division, Technology and Policy Program, 2004. / Includes bibliographical references (p. 76-77). / There has been a continuous increase in automotive electric power usage. Future projections show no sign of it decreasing. Therefore, the automotive industry has a need to either improve the current 12 Volt automotive electrical system or move to a higher voltage vehicle electric system. Both of these choices are likely to increase cost of the system. Performance improvements will be needed to justify the increased cost to the Original Equipment Manufacturer. This thesis is investigating the potential for fuel economy improvements and their associated economic advantages for different vehicle electric systems. The objective is to determine the effects on fuel consumption of electrical system choices under a variety of drive and load cycle circumstances. Incremental, or marginal, efficiencies will be used to determine the relationship between loads and fuel consumptions. ADVISOR, a model developed by the National Renewable Energy Lab, has been adapted for use in this application. This included the implementation of industry standard engine performance map and alternator efficiency map data in the ADVISOR model. / by Christopher William Hardin. / S.M.

Thesis (S.M.)--Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Engineering Systems Division, Technology and Policy Program, 2007. / This electronic version was submitted by the student author. The certified thesis is available in the Institute Archives and Special Collections. / Includes bibliographical references (p. 76-80). / This thesis uses an innovative approach to explore the much-analyzed U.S. Healthcare system. To be sure, we are fully aware of the challenges involved in making robust system level policy recommendations and how local inefficiencies and hidden uncertainties undermine attempts proposing sweeping changes. Hence, we propose to investigate the Healthcare system using a supply chain perspective, which is inherently cross-functional and typically involves numerous different stakeholders. This holistic view will force us to think beyond artificial functional boundaries that promote local inefficiencies in the Healthcare system. Since the future is increasingly uncertain, we chose to use the scenario planning technique to guide the research process of developing effective system level policies. We will also leverage our insights to recommend new research directions to investigate the redefined system boundaries suggested by our scenarios. Since a Fortune 50 pharmaceutical company was used as a case study, the research focused primarily on a subset of the U.S. Healthcare system namely the U.S. pharmaceutical industry. The research also benefited from a series of workshops with supply chain executives from a variety of industries. / (cont.) These workshops helped us refine and validate the scenario planning methodology as a tool to think and plan for the long-term future in uncertain times. Furthermore, the analysis of U.S. Healthcare inefficiencies through a supply chain perspective resulted in some promising policy recommendations as well as exciting future research ideas. / by Loïc Lagarde. / S.M.

Thesis (S.M.)--Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Engineering Systems Division, Technology and Policy Program, 2004. / Includes bibliographical references (leaves 83-85). / (cont.) over time as pollution levels change. Using these new models, we valued the economic benefit of reduced air pollution due to the Clean Air Act regulations to be over $7 trillion from 1970 to 2000, or 2.1% of aggregate US economic welfare over the period. This does not include the benefits into the future (after 2000) from reduction in mortality due chronic exposure during these years. The economic benefit of those saved mortalities is another $7 trillion using a 3% discount rate. Another calculation is the remaining economic burden of unmitigated pollution levels (actual historical pollution). We estimate this to be approximately $9 trillion over the same period. The $9 trillion burden includes the early mortalities due to chronic exposure to PM before and during this period. While these economic benefits of air pollution regulation are large ($7 trillion), they are considerably less than the $27.6 trillion estimated in EPAs own analysis of the benefits of air pollution regulation. The main difference for our lower estimate is the stock-flow accounting of mortality due to chronic exposure. There are considerable uncertainties in these estimates both because of uncertainties in the relationship between air pollution exposure and the health effects, and in the assumptions needed to value these effects. / In the last 30 to 40 years, an increasing awareness of the link between urban air pollutant levels and negative health effects have led to numerous studies and policies that are targeted towards both understanding the linkage and mitigating its effects. In 1970, the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) created the Clean Air Act directed at reducing harmful emissions that cause high pollution levels in urban areas. Ever since then, environmental economists and policy makers have attempted to better understand the economic impacts of these regulations through cost and benefit analysis. Towards that end, we have developed a methodology for fully integrating the health effects from exposure to air pollution into a computable general equilibrium economic model. This model represents the first attempt at fully incorporating the economic valuation of air pollution in an integrated economic model that has endogenously built-in consumer demand and preference curves to accurately represent the demand for air pollution health. This framework provides a way to consistently value effects with commonly used approaches for valuing costs of mitigation and to explore uncertainties in these estimates. Furthermore, we also describe a new stock and flow model to track the extra mortalities from chronic exposure to particulate matters. Past frameworks have assumed an immediate relationship between pollution levels and mortality levels. While this is true for mortality due to acute exposure, changes in mortalities from chronic exposure due to a change in pollution levels are only gradually realized and so the full effects on the economy are observed for many years. This new framework allows the tracking of total pollution in-take and its effect on mortality levels / by Trent Yang. / S.M.

Thesis (M.S.)--Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Technology and Policy Program, 1998. / Includes bibliographical references (leaves 81-83). / by Neetu S. Bhatia. / M.S.

Thesis (S.M.)--Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Engineering Systems Division, Technology and Policy Program, 2007. / Includes bibliographical references (p. 149-150). / This research evaluates stakeholder alignment in a global multi-stakeholder organization called the Global Water Partnership (GWP). The GWP represents a new breed of organization, a Global Multi-Stakeholder Network Organization (GMSNO), that has emerged in greater numbers in the last fifteen years as a means of addressing complex global social and environmental issues. This master's thesis adds to the body of literature on evaluation and assessment of these new global multi-stakeholder organizations by applying the Lateral Alignment Framework to study three different levels of stakeholder alignment in the GWP: Behavioral, Functional/Structural, and Systems/Culture/Values, and the GWP's effectiveness in achieving its mission and goals. The thesis has implications for GMSNOs in general both terms of the content of the findings and the method of analysis using the Lateral Alignment Framework. A main finding from this research is the difference between the relatively high frequency and quality of interactions within GWP regions compared to the low scores on interactions across global regions. / (cont.) This finding may be generalizable to other GMSNOs. Another main finding is the difference between the value that stakeholders derive from GWP participation in a relatively well-developed economic region (a lower score) compared to two less developed regions (higher scores). This may indicate that the GWP is needed or valued for different kinds of functions in more-developed areas compared to less-developed regions. Generally, GWP stakeholders believe they are under-resourced for IWRM planning and management, and they typically see other organizations and regions as having more resources than they do. There is substantial variance in stakeholders' opinions of the existence of appropriate regional and global forums for them to meet and exchange ideas and information. Statistical tests show that these forums are important in facilitating stakeholder communication and alignment, and contributing to the effectiveness of the GWP in achieving its goals. There is a moderate to high level of agreement on the concept of Integrated Water Resources Management (IWRM). / (cont.) This is a positive and significant finding for the GWP, since one of its primary aims is to develop the subject of IWRM among its partner organizations and at the global policy level. Other variables that asked stakeholders to assess the importance of the GWP to their organizations, and the value and effectiveness of the GWP in advancing IWRM at a global level, score high. These findings demonstrate the importance and the value of the GWP to its members. / by Katherine W. Parrot. / S.M.

Thesis (S.M.)--Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Engineering Systems Division, Technology and Policy Program, 2004. / Includes bibliographical references. / This thesis examines the evolution of Internet based knowledge networks (e-knowledge networks) in the domain of sustainable development. The objective of this thesis is to use an engineering systems approach to understand knowledge networks, identify the barriers to their sustainability and recommend strategies for re-engineering them. e-Knowledge Networks refer to the set of Internet based tools and platforms that support communication, collaboration and group decision-making processes amongst groups of individuals. e-knowledge networks are particularly important in the context of international development initiatives that recognize that knowledge is the key to technological change and sustainable economic development. This thesis is intended to aid knowledge network managers and researchers in their efforts towards making their knowledge networks sustainable. The thesis addresses in depth the most important barrier towards a knowledge network's sustainability- the problem of collective action among the participants of a knowledge network. It takes the view that knowledge is a public good, and a knowledge network would face the problem of under provision of this public good due the problem of free-riding and lack of mechanisms to mobilize collective action. This thesis provides guidelines and recommendations for the restructuring of incentives and organizational policies and the re-engineering of the technology to overcome this barrier. The thesis first outlines a framework and taxonomy for describing different knowledge network configurations and maps out the state of existence of important knowledge networks existing in the sustainable development domain within this framework. It then provides individual and comparative / (cont.) studies of two important knowledge networks related to sustainable development- the MIT developed Global System for Sustainable Development (GSSD) and the Development Gateway's Knowledge Network. The engineering systems approach used in this thesis enables the study of each of the sub-systems that make up a knowledge network- the human subsystem, the technological subsystem and the institutional subsystem. This is done with the view towards providing insights into the structure of the network and the network of relationships that develop within a Knowledge Network, determining the motivations that drives the creators and the participants and the incentives that have been engineered into the technological and organizational policies to meet these motivations and assessing the quality, quantity and the evolution of knowledge and the throughput of participants in the network. A detailed description of each of the subsystems is provided and the interrelationships amongst them are analyzed and the result is synthesized to develop an integrated framework for the assessment of knowledge networks. / by Amrith Raghavan. / S.M.