Les modèles d'occupation de niche au sein des communautés locales, la variabilité spatiale de la biodiversité le long des gradients environnementaux du stress et des perturbations, et les processus de succession végétale sont plusieurs sujets fondamentaux en écologie. Récemment, l'approche basée sur les traits est apparue comme un moyen prometteur de comprendre les processus structurant les communautés végétales et cette approche a même été proposée comme méthode pour reconstruire l'écologie communautaire en fonction des traits fonctionnels. Par conséquent, lier ces thèmes fondamentaux en utilisant une lentille fonctionnelle devrait nous donner un aperçu de certaines questions fondamentales en écologie et sera l'objectif principal de ma thèse. En général, mon projet de doctorat vise à étudier les structures de l'occupation de l'espace fonctionnel dans les gradients spatio-temporels. Plus précisément, l'objectif du chapitre 2 est (i) d'étudier les modèles d'occupation de la niche fonctionnelle en calculant trois métriques clés de niche (le volume total de niche fonctionnelle , le chevauchement des niches fonctionnelles et le volume de niche fonctionnel moyen) des communautés pauvres en espèces aux communautés riches en espèces et (ii) de déterminer le principal facteur de la structure observée de l'occupation de la niche fonctionnelle dans les communautés végétales du monde entier. Dans le chapitre 3, je vise à prédire et à expliquer la variation de la richesse en espèces selon les gradients de stress et de perturbation, en reliant le modèle d'équilibre dynamique et l'occupation de la niche fonctionnelle en fonction du cadre développé au chapitre 2. L'objectif du chapitre 4 est de tester expérimentalement l’application d'une méthode d'ordination CSR évaluée globalement en fonction de trois traits de feuilles (surface foliaire, teneur en matière sèche des feuilles et surface foliaire spécifique) dans les études locales. Enfin, l'objectif du chapitre 5 est de tester expérimentalement les hypothèses qui concilient les points de vue déterministes et historiquement contingents de la succession végétale, en étudiant la variation des divergences taxonomiques et fonctionnelles entre les communautés selon des gradients de stress et de perturbation. L'étude globale (chapitre 2) est basée sur une collection de 21 jeux de données, couvrant les biomes tropicaux et tempérés, et se compose de 313 communautés végétales représentant différentes formes de croissance. Les études locales (chapitre 3, 4 et 5) sont basées sur le même système expérimental constitué de 24 mésocosmes présentant différents niveaux de stress et de perturbation. L'expérience a commencé en 2009 avec le même mélange de graines de 30 espèces herbacées semées sur les 24 mésocosmes et s'est terminée en 2016. Nous avons permis la colonisation naturelle de graines de la banque commune de graines de sol et de l'environnement pendant la succession de sept ans. Dix traits ont été mesurés sur cinq individus (échantillonnés directement à partir des mésocosmes) par espèce par mésocosme en 2014 (chapitre 3 et 4). Un autre ensemble de traits (16 traits, y compris certains traits qui ne pouvaient pas être mesurés directement dans les mésocosmes), ont été mesurés au niveau de l'espèce (valeurs moyennes des traits) pour les 34 espèces les plus abondantes (certaines espèces disparues dans les mésocosmes) au cours des sept Ans, en les regroupant séparément pour une saison de croissance. Au chapitre 2, nous avons constaté que les communautés étaient plus diverses en termes fonctionnels (une augmentation du volume fonctionnel total) dans les communautés riches en espèces et que les espèces se chevauchaient davantage au sein de la communauté (augmentation du chevauchement fonctionnel), mais ne divisaient pas plus finement l'espace fonctionnel (aucune réduction du volume fonctionnel moyen). En outre, le filtrage de l'habitat est un processus répandu qui conduit à la caractérisation de l'occupation de niche fonctionnelle dans les communautés végétales. Dans le chapitre 3, nous avons trouvé un modèle similaire d'occupation de niche fonctionnelle sur un système expérimental avec une taille spatiale communautaire constante et un effort d'échantillonnage des traits, qui, avec le chapitre 2, nous a fourni une image plus complète et plus solide de l'occupation de niche fonctionnelle dans les communautés végétales. De plus, nous avons réussi à relier le modèle de l'occupation de la niche fonctionnelle et le modèle d'équilibre dynamique et avons constaté que le filtrage concurrentiel était le processus dominant qui détermine le mode d'occupation de la niche fonctionnelle et la richesse des espèces le long du stress et de la perturbation des gradients. Au chapitre 4, nous fournissons un soutien empirique à une méthode d'ordination CSR calibrée globalement en montrant une relation entre l'abondance relative d'espèces en croissance dans les mésocosmes ayant différents niveaux de fertilité du sol et mortalité indépendante de la densité et leur classification CSR. Au chapitre 5, nous avons montré que la succession d'installations au cours de sept ans dans ces mésocosmes était plus déterministe d'un point de vue fonctionnel, mais plus historiquement contingent d'un point de vue taxonomique et que l'importance relative de la contingence historique a diminué à mesure que l'environnement devenait plus stressé ou perturbé. En conclusion, les structures de l'occupation de l'espace fonctionnel dans (le volume fonctionnel total, le chevauchement fonctionnel et le volume fonctionnel moyen, les Chapitre 2 et 3) ou entre les communautés locales (dissimilarité fonctionnelle, chapitre 5) sont déterministes plutôt que neutres (ou contingence historique ). Les espèces tolératrices de stress sont plus avantagées dans les mésocosmes moins fertiles tandis que les espèces rudérales sont plus avantagées dans les mésocosmes avec plus de mortalité indépendante de la densité. / Abstract : The patterns of niche occupancy within local communities, the spatial variability of biodiversity along environmental gradients of stress and disturbance, and the processes of plant succession are several fundamental topics in ecology. Recently, the trait-based approach has emerged as a promising way to understand the processes structuring plant communities and has even been proposed as a method to rebuild community ecology based on functional traits. Therefore, linking these fundamental themes through a functional lens should give us more insight into some basic questions in ecology and will be the main objective of my thesis. Generally, my PhD project is to investigate the structures of functional space occupancy along both spatial and temporal gradients. Specifically, the objective of Chapter 2 is to investigate the patterns of functional niche occupancy by calculating three key niche metrics (the total functional niche volume, the functional niche overlap and the average functional niche volume) from speciespoor communities to species-rich communities and to determine the main driver of the observed pattern of functional niche occupancy across plant communities worldwide. In Chapter 3, I aim to predict and explain the variation of species richness along gradients of stress and disturbance, by linking the dynamic equilibrium model and functional niche occupancy based on the framework developed in Chapter 2. The objective of Chapter 4 is to experimentally test the application of a globally calibrated CSR ordination method based on three leaf traits (leaf area, leaf dry matter content and specific leaf area) in local studies. Finally, the aim of Chapter 5 is to experimentally test the hypotheses reconciling the deterministic and historically contingent views of plant succession, by investigating the variation of taxonomic and functional dissimilarities between communities along gradients of stress and disturbance. The global study (Chapter 2) is based on a collection 21 trait datasets, spanning tropical to temperate biomes, and consisting of 313 plant communities representing different growth forms. The local studies (Chapter 3, 4 and 5) are based on the same experimental system consisting of 24 mesocosms experiencing different levels of stress and disturbance. The experiment started in 2009 with the same seed mixture of 30 herbaceous species broadcast over the 24 mesocosms and ended in 2016. We allowed natural colonization of seeds from the common soil seed bank and from the surroundings during the seven-year succession. Ten traits were measured on five individuals (sampled directly from the mesocosms) per species per mesocosms in 2014 (Chapter 3 and 4). Another set of traits (16 traits including some traits that were not able to measured directly in the mesocosms) were measured at the species level (species mean traits values) for the 34 most abundant species (some species disappeared in the mesocosms) over the seven years, by regrowing them separately for one growing season. In Chapter 2, we found communities were more functionally diverse (an increase in total functional volume) in species-rich communities, and species overlapped more within the community (an increase in functional overlap) but did not more finely divide the functional space (no decline in average functional volume). Moreover, habitat filtering is a widespread process driving the pattern of functional niche occupancy across plant communities. In Chapter 3, we found a similar pattern of functional niche occupancy on an experimental system with a constant community spatial size and trait-sampling effort, which together with Chapter 2 provided us a more comprehensive and robust picture of functional niche occupancy across plant communities. In addition, we succeeded in linking the pattern of functional niche occupancy and the dynamic equilibrium model and found that habitat filtering was the dominant process determining the pattern of functional niche occupancy and species richness along the gradients stress and disturbance. In Chapter 4, we provide empirical support for a globally calibrated CSR ordination method by showing a relationship between the relative abundance of species growing in mesocosms having different levels of soil fertility and density-independent mortality and their CSR classification. In Chapter 5, we showed that plant succession over seven years in these mesocosms was more deterministic from a functional perspective but more historically contingent from a taxonomic perspective, and that the relative importance of historical contingency decreased as the environment became more stressed or disturbed. In conclusion, the structures of functional space occupancy within (the total functional volume, the functional overlap and the average functional volume; Chapter 2 and 3) or between local communities (functional dissimilarity, Chapter 5) are deterministic rather than neutral (or historical contingency). Stress-tolerators were more favored in high stress communities, while ruderals are more favored in high disturbed mesocosms (Chapter 4).

Thesis focus on derivation of macro-finance model for analysis of yield curve and its dynamics using macroeconomic factors. Underlying model is based on basic Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium DSGE approach that stems from Real Business Cycle theory and New Keynesian Macroeconomics. The model includes four main building blocks: households, firms, government and central bank. Log-linearized solution of the model serves as an input for derivation of yield curve and its main determinants -- pricing kernel, price of risk and affine term structure of interest rates -- based on no-arbitrage assumption. The Thesis shows a possible way of consistent derivation of structural macro-finance model, with reasonable computational burden that allows for time varying term premia. A simple VAR model, widely used in macro-finance literature, serves as a benchmark. The paper also presents a brief comparison and shows an ability of both models to fit an average yield curve observed from the data. Lastly, the importance of term structure analysis is demonstrated using case of Central Bank deciding about policy rate and Government conducting debt management.

Abu Dhabi has experienced an unprecedented development during the last half century, growing rapidly from a remote desert settlement to a thriving metropolitan. Today, the Emirate ranks among the countries with the highest GDP per capita in the world, and this impressive development is anticipated to continue in the decades to come.<p><p>However, there are several challenges to the sustainability of the current economic prosperity, and the environmental degradation that was caused by the rapid development is an important factor in this context. Today, the United Arab Emirates as a country has the highest ecological footprint per capita in the world and Abu Dhabi, hosting the major part of the heavy industries and oil extraction capacity in the country, has an even larger footprint. Key drivers of this poor environmental track-record are the high greenhouse gas emissions and water consumption levels.<p><p>This deterioration of environmental conditions has growing implications for the economic welfare and physical well-being of the population. So far, the government's environmental policy is mostly symbolic, and concrete policy measures are largely lacking today. On the contrary, there are crucial elements in the governmental policy that have strong negative impacts on environmental conditions and thus on the sustainability of Abu Dhabi's growth, such as generous implicit subsidies on energy commodities and water and an ambitious strategy for economic growth, depending on a strong expansion of heavy industry.<p><p>This poses the question how environmental conditions will develop, when the population boom and economic expansion are anticipated to continue. However, the academic literature on environmental sustainability issues in Abu Dhabi as well as in the wider Gulf region is limited. Moreover, applied policy studies on the topic are absent as well.<p><p>This dissertation intends to contribute to the academic literature as well as to insights from existing policy studies, by projecting the impact of sustained economic growth on environmental conditions in Abu Dhabi. It compares a baseline scenario of economic growth with the four most relevant policy options aimed at footprint reductions available to policy makers in the Emirate: i) The introduction of a nuclear power plant; ii) An abandonment of utility price controls; iii) Shifts in the subsidization policy of water and energy markets; iv) Energy efficiency improvements in selected parts of the economy.<p><p>A recursively dynamic, multi-sectoral computable general equilibrium (CGE) model is used to generate the results in this dissertation, focusing on the two most important aspects of the ecological footprint in Abu Dhabi mentioned above. The CGE model is calibrated to a SAM for Abu Dhabi for 2009, and its specification is chosen to facilitate a focus on energy consumption and sustainability issues. Besides, it is extended by an environmental module and a fossil fuel module, and it incorporates several other modifications that are tailored to the Abu Dhabi economy.<p><p>Simulation results under a baseline scenario of economic growth show that carbon emissions will grow by 282% by 2030 compared to the base year 2009, and water consumption is anticipated to increase by 312%.<p><p>The introduction of nuclear plants, at the scale that is previewed today, will yield a reduction in emissions of 2.6% compared to the baseline scenario. The economic impact will be positive, with a 0.5% increase in GDP and small gains in employment levels.<p><p>Price liberalizations in the utility markets are a politically sensitive theme. When implemented, they can yield a 7.6% reduction in emissions and a 2.3% in water consumption by 2030 (vs. baseline). However, the economic cost involved amounts to 0.3% of GDP.<p><p>An abandonment of subsidies in the energy and water markets can lead to a 11.1% drop in carbon emissions, and a 28.8% decline in water consumption vs. baseline. The domestic economic impacts of this change are negative, but the GDP shows a modest 0.6% growth, due to improvements in the foreign trade balance.<p><p>Finally, efficiency improvements can lead to reductions in carbon emissions (13.8%) and water consumption (17.5%) compared to the baseline, and bring economic gains of 1.0% of GDP.<p><p>All four simulated policy scenarios in this dissertation bring about reductions in the ecological footprint, compared to the baseline as described above. Nonetheless, the consumption levels of energy and water as well as the related carbon emissions will be substantially higher in 2030 than they are today, under each of these scenarios. As a policy implication, the dissertation therefore finds that the previewed deterioration in environmental conditions requires active policy, if current welfare and prosperity are to be sustained. When assessed in the appropriate policy context, environmental conservation and improvements in the ecological footprint should be treated with a higher priority in the broad portfolio of development goals in Abu Dhabi.<p> / Doctorat en Sciences économiques et de gestion / info:eu-repo/semantics/nonPublished