This thesis develops a range of prediction models for the purpose of predicting the acquisition of commercial banks in the European Union using publicly available data. Over the last thirty years, there have been approximately 30 studies that have attempted to identify potential acquisition targets, all of them focusing on non-bank sectors. We consider that prediction models developed specifically for the banking industry are essential due to the unusual structure of banks' financial statements, differences in the environment in which banks operate and other specific characteristics of banks that in general distinguish them from non-financial firms. We focus specifically on the EU banking sector, where M&As activity has been considerable in recent years, yet academic research relating to the EU has been rather limited compared to the case of the US. The methodology for developing prediction models involved identifying past cases of acquired banks and combining these with non-acquired banks in order to evaluate the prediction accuracy of various quantitative classification techniques. In this study, we construct a base sample of commercial banks covering 15 EU countries, and financial variables measuring capital strength, profit and cost efficiency, liquidity, growth, size and market power, with data in both raw and country-adjusted (i.e. raw variables divided by the average of the banking sector for the corresponding country) form. In order to allow for a proper comparative evaluation of classification methods, we select common subsets of the base sample and variables with high discriminatory power, dividing the sample period (1998-2002) into training sub-sample for model development (1998-2000), and holdout sub-sample for model evaluation (2001-2002). Although the results tend to support the findings of studies on non-financial firms, highlighting the difficulties in predicting acquisition targets, the prediction models we develop show classification accuracies generally higher than chance assignment based on prior probabilities. We also consider the use of equal and unequal matched holdout samples for evaluation, and find that overall classification accuracy tends to increase in the unequal matched samples, implying that equal matched samples do not necessarily overstate the prediction ability of models. The main goal of this study has been to compare and evaluate a variety of classification methods including statistical, econometric, machine learning and operational research techniques, as well as integrated techniques combining the predictions of individual classification methods. We found that some methods achieved very high accuracies in classifying non-acquired banks, but at the cost of relatively poor accuracy performance in classifying acquired banks. This suggests a trade-off in achieving high classification accuracy, although some methods (e.g. Discriminant) performed reasonably well in terms of achieving balanced overall classification accuracies of above chance predictions. Integrated prediction models offer the advantage of counterbalancing relatively poor performance of some classification methods with good performance of others, but in doing so could not out-perform all individual classification methods considered. In general, we found that the outcome of which method performed best depended largely on the group classification accuracy considered, as well as to some extent on the choice of the discriminatory variables. Concerning the use of raw or country-adjusted data, we found no clear effect on the prediction ability of the classification methods.

The marketing literature deals inadequately with markets which show characteristics of both consumer and industrial markets. In this work such markets are called hybrid markets. The research attempts to find an appropriate research approach for the short haul business related air travel market, which has hybrid market characteristics. Recent studies of the business travel market (Stephenson and Fox, 1987, Toh and Hu. 1988 and 1990) have investigated corporate and traveller attitude towards frequent flier programmes (see Glossary). However, as yet the airline marketing literature has not investigated the role the purchasing organisation (the employer of the traveller) has to play in a decision to purchase business related air travel. Market segmentation is selected as a suitable tool to investigate the business travel market. However, a review of the literature on segmentation for both consumer and industrial products reveals that an approach suited to the characteristics of this market is not available. Consequently a two stage research approach for hybrid markets is developed. A case study of nine companies in the first stage of the research is used to develop an understanding of corporate involvement in the purchase of business air travel, and identifies three key stakeholder groups in the purchase. They are the traveller, the travel organiser, and the 'organisation'. The second stage of the research collects data on the stakeholders. Traveller data on the importance of product elements in the purchase are used in a benefit segmentation of the market. The attitude data from 827 business travellers is analysed by factor analysis to identify six principal purchase benefits. These six benefits account for 60.6% of the variance in the data. Six factor scores for each respondent are calculated and then investigated by ak means iterative partitioning cluster analysis. A robust three cluster solution is discovered; i. e. three benefit segments are present in the short haul business travel market, based on traveller attitude. Cross-validation tests are carried out to test the stability of this solution. The three segments are investigated to evaluate the influence in the purchase decision of other organisational stakeholders. Differences between segments are found in the travel policy of the employing organisation, class of travel allowed to travellers, and purchase behaviour. The research indicates that for hybrid markets such as business travel, the role of the employing organisation may be important in purchase decisions. Consequently, it is recommended that future reserach should assess corporate involvement in purchases of products that have both consumer and industrial elements. The evaluation of the influences of various stakeholder groups in purchase decisions in hybrid markets may reveal previously overlooked marketing opportunities.

This paper considers two major issues in the evolution of the European Union, the Single Market and the Single Currency. The first chapter deals with the projected effects of the 1992 Programme, and the second chapter deals with the collapse of the Exchange Rate Mechanism of the European Monetary System and examines the prospects for European Monetary Union given this collapse. The third chapter revolves around the concept of Central Banking under Monetary Union and focuses on the European Monetary Institute and the European System of Central Banks. Chapter four presents data regarding the progress of the European Union towards the target of the Single Currency, as well as other macroeconomic indicators.

The opening of telecommunications to competition since the beginning of the 1980's has several explanations. Governments have acknowledged that the regulatory preservation of national monopolies had become impossible as well as economically inefficient, notably because of certain technological revolutions. Liberalization of telecommunications must also be seen in the context of a global opening of markets, of which the most obvious manifestation is the creation of the WTO. At the European level, liberalization is the logical consequence of the Treaty of Rome principles and objectives. / Introducing competition to the telecommunication sector proves to be extremely difficult in practice, especially in a context where telecommunication, media an information technologies industries converge. The new regulation must find, through the definition of interconnection conditions between operators and the preservation of universal service, an equilibrium between the conflicting interests of incumbent and new operators, and those of professional and residential customers.

The primary focus of this work is Article 57 of the Draft European Constitution, concerning the constitutionalisation of a new aspect in EU external relations law, 'the European Neighbourhood Policy'. No comprehensive study of this constitutional article has yet been undertaken in EU legal research. Through the medium of the title of my thesis I wish to examine whether it amounts to an emergent jus gentium for the EU or its antithesis, the consolidation of jus civile. In parallel with the nature of the subject, this study is necessarily a legal-political one. Key points identified are the strategic use of human rights, extraterritoriality of law, foreign direct investment and legal imperialism. A number of recent developments, both judicial and legislative, have provoked this study.

Although organizations and researchers have long pointed to the impact of migration on the development of countries of origin, one can hardly deny the bright spotlight and the rapid resurgence within policy debates, that the migration-development nexus enjoys over recent years. European politicians, inter-governmental organizations and academics alike un-equivocally point out that migration if managed appropriately, could bring the proverbial ‘win-win-win’ result for migrants themselves, sending, and receiving countries. So much so that, circular migration is being advocated as the solution to the migration challenges facing the European Union (EU) today. However, at a closer look, the evidence found is contradictory at best and largely depends on how development is defined and the breadth with which remittances are measured. Thus, this paper seeks for greater knowledge of this contemporary movement of persons, without which the EU will continue to develop policies and recommendations that may sat-isfy their member states, but not their intended audience. Starting with the Gastarbeiter programmes of the 1960-70s and concluding with the recent EU Blue Card initiative, this paper will conclude that the overall contribution of migrants to development is dependent on a scheme’s ability to a) encourage ‘return of innovation’ and b) broaden its outlook on non-financial remittances. Using the International Organization for Migration’s (IOM) Migration for Development in Africa (MIDA) Italy-Ghana/Senegal programme, and based on Ionescu’s four point criteria for successful circular migration policy, this paper will evaluate the MIDA Italy framework and suggest means by which its successes could be magnified.

Thesis (Masters)--Macquarie University, Division of Humanitites, Dept. of Politics, 2006. / Bibliography: p. 215-231. / The fragile state of the European Union (EU), its battle for survival with the Member States. -- The growth of the EU and the gradual transfer of powers from the Member States. -- The impact of the European Court of Justice. -- The formation of policy communities and multi-level governance. -- The Commission's sole right to initiate legislation and its reference to subsidiarity. -- The all-powerful Competition Directorate, which has an influential section of economic purists. -- The increased powers of the European Parliament and its shortcomings. -- The reluctance of national governments to adopt progressive attitudes and to let the Commission change its policies and procedures. -- The national contributions to the EU budget. -- The taxation differences between the various Member States. -- The EU constitution. -- The demographic development. -- Regional development and the structural funds. -- Competition policy. -- The Common Agricultural Policy. -- The Common Environment Policy. -- Economic and Monetary Union (EMU), the Euro, the Stability and Growth Pact (SGP) and the European Central Bank. -- Transport. -- The Common Energy Policy. -- The Area of Freedom, Security and Justice (AFSJ). / The European Union (EU) is partly supranational and partly inter-governmental. It is dependent on the concurrance of all its Member States for the important decisions required for the running of the EU. This causes an inherent instability in the EU. / Electronic reproduction. / 231 leaves

Thesis (M.A.)--University of Nevada, Reno, 2006. / "December, 2006." Includes bibliographical references (leaves 79-84). Online version available on the World Wide Web. Library also has microfilm. Ann Arbor, Mich. : ProQuest Information and Learning Company, [2006]. 1 microfilm reel ; 35 mm.

Diss. Umeå : Umeå universitet, 2007.

Univ., Diss.--Lille, 2002.