Originally presented as the author's thesis, Zürich. / Bibliography: p. 159-162.

The old Quantity Theory of the Value of Money can be expressed as the "Equation of Exchange," MV=PT, in which M is the quantity of money, V is the velocity of circulation of money, P is the price level, and T is the total number of transactions during the period under consideration. The major shortcoming of the old Quantity Theory was that velocity (V) was taken to be numerically constant, which it is not. The new Quantity Theory is a theory of the demand for money as an asset, productive capital yielding a stream of income in the form of convenience, security, and so on. According to this theory, people hold portfolios containing money, bonds, equities, and other assets, and they adjust their portfolios so that they obtain the maximum returns therefrom. The demand for money can be expressed in terms of the demand for other assets (in real terms), the behaviour of the general price level, people's utility preferences, and their total wealth. Given a function describing total income, an equation describing the velocity of circulation of money can be written as the quotient of the income function divided by the demand for money function. This is the difference between the new and old Quantity Theories: under the old, the velocity of money was considered to be a numerical constant; under the new it is described as a function of income and the demand for money. In accordance with the above theory, when a monetary disturbance is introduced by the central bank, people will want to adjust their portfolios in such a way as to compensate for the disturbance. The initial impact of the monetary disturbance is in the markets for the most liquid assets: the financial markets. This idea was tested by correlation analysis on Canadian data of money supply and stock prices and variants thereof for the years 1924-1967. Even after the influence of trend had been removed from the data, statistical support was found for the above theory, but only after the influence of random variation had been reduced by six-month moving averaging. However, the evidence—a significant correlation of .259 between percent change in money and percent change in stock prices—suggests that monetary change accounts for only about 6.7 percent of the variation in stock prices. But this conclusion must be tempered by the realisation that variable lags of the same nature as those that exist between monetary change and change in the level of business activity can be expected to exist between monetary change and change in the level of stock prices. Thus it can be argued that the results of correlation analysis tend to understate the actual impact of monetary change on stock prices. / Business, Sauder School of / Graduate

Thesis (M. Econ.)--University of Hong Kong, 1994. / Declaration statment inserted. Includes bibliographical references (leaves 114-115).

Thesis (M.Econ.)--University of Hong Kong, 1994. / Includes bibliographical references (leaves 114-115). Also available in print.

Thèse--Universit́e de Paris. / "Bibliographie": p. [207]-210.

Thesis (Ph. D.)--University of Chicago, 1973. / Bibliography: p. 127.

Thesis (M.Com. (Economics & Economic History)) - Rhodes University, 2007. / In partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Masters in Commerce (Financial markets).

Orientador: Antonio Carlos Macedo e Silva / Dissertação (mestrado) - Universidade Estadual de Campinas, Instituto de Economia / Made available in DSpace on 2018-08-16T01:23:30Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Giannella_Andrea_M.pdf: 1109618 bytes, checksum: 700c4b7467685ccd3fe8aa918a8324e0 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2010 / Resumo: John M. Keynes e Dennis H. Robertson, ambos economistas de Cambridge, foram intensos colaboradores intelectuais na década de 1920; mas após da publicação da Teoria geral de Keynes, em 1936, a colaboração foi substituída por uma ostensiva rivalidade teórica. O ponto de inflexão do relacionamento entre ambos, entretanto, antecede esta época, e remonta à publicação do Tratado sobre a moeda de Keynes, em 1930. A partir da resenha que Robertson fez deste livro, os autores travaram um debate teórico e terminológico, acerca de questões como a determinação do preço dos bens de investimento, a relação entre poupança, investimento e entesouramento, e a determinação da quantidade de depósitos inativos na economia. Este debate, denominado pela literatura especializada de controvérsia "dos baldes em um poço", foi considerado de importância fundamental para as futuras divergências entre os autores, mas não recebeu atenção analítica à altura desta consideração. Nesta dissertação, argumenta-se que o desdobramento dos pontos debatidos esteve em parte relacionado à necessidade de Keynes de responder às críticas de Hayek ao livro, e procura-se estabelecer um modo de correlação entre os diversos conceitos debatidos (entesouramento, depósitos inativos, nível de preço dos bens de investimento, poupança, etc.) Considerou-se, como ponto de orientação geral, a pergunta: a controvérsia foi teórica ou simplesmente terminológica? O que se constata é que não há resposta simples para esta questão. De fato, a "controvérsia dos baldes em um poço" mistura assuntos teóricos, talvez não inteiramente compatíveis entre si, e em relação aos quais a diferença entre os autores foi em parte teórica, e em parte terminológica / Abstract: John M. Keynes and Dennis H. Robertson, both economists from Cambridge, were intense intellectual collaborators in the 1920s; but after the publication of Keynes?s General theory, in 1936, their collaboration was substitutes by an ostensive theoretical rivalry. The turning point of their relationship, however, is previous from that time, and goes back to the publication of Keynes's Treatise on money, in 1930. From Robertson's review of that book on, the authors engaged in a theoretical and terminological debate, concerning matters such as the determination of the price of investment goods, the relation between saving, investment and hoarding, and the determination of the quantity of inactive deposits in the economy. This debate, named the "buckets in a well" controversy by the specialized literature, was considered to be of fundamental importance for the future divergence between the authors, but did not receive an analytical attention compatible to such consideration. In this dissertation, it is argued that the unfolding of the subjects in the debated was partially related to Keynes's need to answer Hayek's critics of his book, and the dissertation means to establish a way to correlate the many debated concepts (hoarding, inactive deposits, price level of investment goods, saving, etc.) It was considered, as a general point of orientation, the question: was the controversy theoretical, or simply terminological? It is concluded that there is no simple answer to such question. As a matter of a fact, the "buckets in a well controversy" mixes many theoretical subjects, which may not be entirely compatible one to another, and in relation to which the difference between the authors was partially theoretical, and partially terminological / Mestrado / Historia Economica / Mestre em Ciências Econômicas

Doctorat en sciences sociales, politiques et économiques / info:eu-repo/semantics/nonPublished

There has been extensive theoretical and empirical research on the subject of demand for money function. This particularly stems from the important role demand for money plays in macroeconomic analysis, especially in the design and implementation of monetary policy. The increase in studies, especially in developing countries, can also be attributed to a number of factors like: the impact of moving towards flexible exchange rate regimes, globalisation of financial markets, ongoing financial liberalisation, innovations in domestic financial products, the advancement in econometrics techniques and other country-specific events. This study estimates and examines the nature and stability of the demand for broad money (M2) in Botswana. This is particularly important in that the usefulness of a money demand function in the conduct of monetary policy depends crucially on its stability. The stability of the money demand function is crucial in that a stable money demand function would mean that the quantity of money is predictably related to a set of key economic variables linking money and the real economic sector. Therefore, this will help central banks to select appropriate monetary policy actions. Based on the findings, the study also proposes policy interventions. The vast majority of the literature on demand for money has underscored the fact that variable selection and representation, and the framework chosen are the two major issues relevant to modelling and estimation of the demand for money function. In modelling and estimating the demand for money function in Botswana, this study surveys a stream of theoretical and empirical literature on money demand in developed and developing countries, including countries that have similar financial sector similar to Botswana. Due consideration is also given to the macroeconomic and financial sector development in Botswana to help in the identification of the variables that are included in the demand for money equation. Most importantly, this helped in getting meaningful results that are free from theoretical and estimation problems. In particular, this study applied the multivariate cointegration approach as proposed by Johansen (1988) and Johansen and Juselius (1990) to estimate the relationship between broad money (M2), real income, interest rate, South African treasury bill rate, inflation rate and US dollar/pula bilateral exchange rate. The study obtains one unique long run relationship between money and the scale and opportunity cost variables. The coefficients of the long run relationship are then modelled along the general to specific approach as proposed by Campos, Ericsson and Hendry (2005). In this type of approach the general model is reduced by sequential elimination of statistically insignificant variables and checking the validity of the reductions at every stage to ensure congruence of the finally selected parsimonious model. In accordance with the economic quantity theory of money, the long run income elasticity obtained is 0.8021, which is close to the value one (unitary) suggested by economic theory. The coefficients of real income, exchange and inflation rate have the expected positive signs and were significant in the long run. Therefore, the long run demand for money (M2) in Botswana was found to be positively affected by real income, inflation rate and exchange rate. The lack of statistical significant of the own rate of money (88 day commercial bank deposit rate) and the foreign opportunity cost variable (South African Treasury bill rate) is attributed to multi-collinearity problems between these two interest rates. This could be caused by the fact that short term rates in Botswana are very responsive to movements in the money markets rates in South Africa. The short run dynamics of the demand for money function shows the slow speed of adjustment to equilibrium of about 2.9 percent in the first quarter and this is reflective of the lack of sufficient availability of banking services and the low returns on financial assets which could allow economic agents to re-establish equilibrium levels of money holdings faster. The final parsimonious model obtained clearly reflects a well specified stable demand for money function. Therefore, based on the findings we can be precise in stating that targeting a monetary aggregate can be a viable policy for the monetary authorities in Botswana.