Intelligence is vital for the outcome of battles. As long as humans wage war, there will be a need for decision support to military and civilian leaders regarding adversaries or potential adversaries. However, the production of intelligence is neither easy nor without pitfalls. There is a need to better understand the predicaments of intelligence analysis. Intelligence is bureaucratically produced as well as socially constructed and created in a distinct cultural context. The ‘institution’ captures these three aspects of influence. Therefore, with a particular focus on military intelligence, this thesis aims to deepen the understanding regarding institutional influence on intelligence assessments. The literature regarding intelligence has grown steadily over the last three decades. However, theories and frameworks aimed to understand the phenomenon are still sparse. This is even more true for literature regarding contemporary military intelligence. This thesis intends to contribute to bridging these research gaps. This is done by studying the Swedish military intelligence institution from several different perspectives: its rules-in-use, shared beliefs, and the incoming stimuli primarily related to conducting threat assessments. More precisely the thesis investigates the use of quantitative methods, doctrines (i.e. the formal rules), and shared beliefs connected to epistemological assumptions and threat assessments. The main contribution of this thesis is that it establishes and describes a casual link between a military intelligence institution and an assessment, by drawing upon rulesin-use and belief systems and their effect on the mental model and consequently the perception of the situation connected to a cognitive bias, and thereby its effect on a given assessment. The thesis makes an effort to render intelligence studies more generalizable, by way of adopting the Institutional Analysis and Development (IAD) framework. The metatheoretical language of the IAD is a promising avenue for explaining and describing the institutional influence on intelligence assessments. / Underrättelse är en avgörande komponent för utfallet av väpnad strid. Så länge människor krigar, kommer det att finnas ett behov av beslutsstöd till militära och civila ledare angående dess motståndare och potentiella motståndare. Produktionen av underrättelse är dock inte lätt eller utan fallgropar. Det finns där för ett behov av att öka förståelsen för de predikamenten kopplade till underrättelseanalys. Underrättelse som produkt är byråkratiskt såväl som socialt konstruerad och skapas i ett distinkt kulturellt sammanhang. Konceptet "Institution" kan ses fånga alla dessa tre aspekter. Därför handlar det speciellt om militär intelligens, som handlar om att förstå det institutionella inflytandet på intelligensbedömningar. Den tillgängliga underrättelselitteraturen har ökat stadigt under de senaste tre decennierna. Dock gällande teorier och ramverk på området som syftar till att förstå fenomenet är det emellertid fortfarande lite gjort. Detta gäller i än högre utsträckning för det specifika området modern militärunderrättelse verksamhet. Avhandlingen avser att bidra till att överbrygga dessa forskningsgap. Detta görs genom att studera den svenska militärunderrättelseinstitutionen ur flera perspektiv. Dess regler-i-bruk, delad trossystem/övertygelser samt den inkommande stimuli(data/information) primärt kopplade till hur hotbedömningar genomförs. Mer exakt granskar avhandlingen användningen av kvantitativa metoder, doktriner (dvs de formella reglerna) och delade föreställningar kopplade till epistemologiska antaganden och hotbedömningar. Huvudresultatet av denna avhandling är att det etablerar och beskriver en länk mellan en militärunderrättelseinstitution och de bedömningar som görs. Det går att se en direkt länk mellan de regler-i-bruk samt institutionens trossystem och deras inverkan på individens mentalmodellen. Detta sker genom att de rådande reglerna påverkar förekomesten av kognitivt bias vilket där med påverkar analytikerns uppfattning av en given situation. Avhandlingen har där med en ambition att göra studier i underrättelseanalys mer generaliserbara, genom att applicera och utveckla ramverket för institutionell analys och utveckling (IAD). Det metadeteoretiska språket i IAD är en lovande aveny för att förklara och beskriva det institutionella inflytandet på intelligensbedömningar.

Clearly established conservation priorities are urgently required for taxa and ecosystems in critical need of conservation. This helps to identify and document taxa most in need of conservation attention, and provides an index of the state of degeneration of biodiversity. Including as much relevant information as possible in a prioritisation assessment will deliver the most accurate classification, yet these variables should not overly complicate the prioritisation process. Conservation assessments depend not just on the taxon’s susceptibility to threat (i.e. risk of extinction, or Red List assessments), but also the conservation value, irreplaceability and nature and intensity of the threats. Research into the value and applicability of conservation prioritisation tools at a regional scale, allowed for the assessment of the extinction risk as well as subsequent priority ranking of South African mammals. At the outset research was directed towards investigating South African mammals in accordance with their respective regional and global World Conservation Union (IUCN) Red List and Red Data Book assessments. The regional Red List assessment drastically improved local knowledge of the current extinction risk of various mammals, and identified 57 marine and terrestrial mammals to be highly threatened. Up to date regional extinction risk assessments, allowed for the investigation of whether a human activity threat index derived from six human activity variables across South Africa could be used to highlight mammals threatened with extinction while also being exposed to high human activity. Evidence indicated various threatened and lower risk mammals were exposed to high human activity throughout their range, pointing to high potential threat and future increase in extinction risk. For relevant prioritisation to take place, components of vulnerability (IUCN Red List assessments, and occupancy data), irreplaceability (endemism and taxonomic distinctiveness), and threat measures (body mass and human density in a taxa distributional range) was introduced into relational priority assessment which allowed for a simplified approach in determining conservation priorities for taxa under various region-specific conditions. The use of different sets of information clearly affected the priority rankings. South African Chiroptera and Carnivora was used as a case study to addresses whether a simple measure of taxonomic diversity can be used as a proxy for different measures of phylogenetic diversity in determining regional conservation priority of taxa, when such information is limited. Evidence does suggest that the utilisation of the simple taxonomic diversity measure may provide the appropriate information on evolutionary diversity. Two theoretical concepts were proposed to address some potential shortcomings in the conservation prioritisation arena. The Orange List method offers a system to identify “species [or taxa] of high national importance or of high conservation value” (South African National Environmental Management: Biodiversity Act 2004). In turn the Green Data List essentially represents a radical shift in the traditional approach to the management of both threatened and invasive taxa. Throughout this thesis, evidence do point to smaller mammals being of high conservation concern in South Africa, with the members from the Orders Rodentia, Chiroptera and Insectivora being constantly identified as high conservation priority. Apart from contributing to our current understanding of the conservation importance/priority of South Africa mammals, this current thesis has resulted in a robust understanding of various assessment techniques. / Thesis (DPhil (Zoology))--University of Pretoria, 2007. / Zoology and Entomology / unrestricted