Wong, Siu Fung. / Thesis submitted in: December 2003. / Thesis (M.Phil.)--Chinese University of Hong Kong, 2004. / Includes bibliographical references (leaves 77-84). / Abstracts in English and Chinese. / Abstract --- p.ii / Acknowledgement --- p.vi / Chapter 1 --- Introduction --- p.1 / Chapter 2 --- Preliminary --- p.6 / Chapter 2.1 --- Dynamic Time Warping (DTW) --- p.6 / Chapter 2.2 --- Spatial Indexing --- p.10 / Chapter 2.3 --- Relevance Feedback --- p.11 / Chapter 3 --- Literature Review --- p.13 / Chapter 3.1 --- Searching Sequences under Euclidean Metric --- p.13 / Chapter 3.2 --- Searching Sequences under Dynamic Time Warping Metric --- p.17 / Chapter 4 --- Subsequence Matching under Time Warping --- p.21 / Chapter 4.1 --- Subsequence Matching --- p.22 / Chapter 4.1.1 --- Sequential Search --- p.22 / Chapter 4.1.2 --- Indexing Scheme --- p.23 / Chapter 4.2 --- Lower Bound Technique --- p.25 / Chapter 4.2.1 --- Properties of Lower Bound Technique --- p.26 / Chapter 4.2.2 --- Existing Lower Bound Functions --- p.27 / Chapter 4.3 --- Point-Based indexing --- p.28 / Chapter 4.3.1 --- Lower Bound for subsequences matching --- p.28 / Chapter 4.3.2 --- Algorithm --- p.35 / Chapter 4.4 --- Rectangle-Based indexing --- p.37 / Chapter 4.4.1 --- Lower Bound for subsequences matching --- p.37 / Chapter 4.4.2 --- Algorithm --- p.41 / Chapter 4.5 --- Experimental Results --- p.43 / Chapter 4.5.1 --- Candidate ratio vs Width of warping window --- p.44 / Chapter 4.5.2 --- CPU time vs Number of subsequences --- p.45 / Chapter 4.5.3 --- CPU time vs Width of warping window --- p.46 / Chapter 4.5.4 --- CPU time vs Threshold --- p.46 / Chapter 4.6 --- Summary --- p.47 / Chapter 5 --- Relevance Feedback under Time Warping --- p.49 / Chapter 5.1 --- Integrating Relevance Feedback with DTW --- p.49 / Chapter 5.2 --- Query Reformulation --- p.53 / Chapter 5.2.1 --- Constraint Updating --- p.53 / Chapter 5.2.2 --- Weight Updating --- p.55 / Chapter 5.2.3 --- Overall Strategy --- p.58 / Chapter 5.3 --- Experiments and Evaluation --- p.59 / Chapter 5.3.1 --- Effectiveness of the strategy --- p.61 / Chapter 5.3.2 --- Efficiency of the strategy --- p.63 / Chapter 5.3.3 --- Usability --- p.64 / Chapter 5.4 --- Summary --- p.71 / Chapter 6 --- Conclusion --- p.72 / Chapter A --- Deduction of Data Bounding Hyper-rectangle --- p.74 / Chapter B --- Proof of Theorem2 --- p.76 / Bibliography --- p.77 / Publications --- p.84

Kong, Cheuk Kwan. / Thesis (M.Phil.)--Chinese University of Hong Kong, 2007. / Includes bibliographical references (leaves 42-44). / Abstracts in English and Chinese. / Chapter 1 --- Introduction --- p.1 / Chapter 2 --- Modelling Piecewise AR model --- p.4 / Chapter 2.1 --- Background --- p.4 / Chapter 2.2 --- Introduction to Auto-FARM --- p.5 / Chapter 2.3 --- Minimum Description Length --- p.6 / Chapter 2.4 --- Genetic Algorithm --- p.9 / Chapter 2.5 --- Reproduction Rules --- p.10 / Chapter 3 --- Bayesian-SCAD Approach --- p.14 / Chapter 3.1 --- Estimation via Penalty Function --- p.15 / Chapter 3.2 --- Introduction to SCAD --- p.17 / Chapter 3.3 --- Local Quadratic Approximation of SCAD --- p.20 / Chapter 3.4 --- Bayesian Formulation and GA Implementation --- p.22 / Chapter 4 --- Simulation Study --- p.25 / Chapter 4.1 --- Piecewise AR Process from Davis et al. (2006) --- p.25 / Chapter 4.2 --- Piecewise Seasonal AR Process --- p.29 / Chapter 5 --- Real Data Analysis --- p.33 / Chapter 5.1 --- Description and Source of Data --- p.33 / Chapter 5.2 --- Model Fitting --- p.36 / Chapter 5.3 --- Prediction Results --- p.39 / Chapter 6 --- Conclusion --- p.40 / Bibliography --- p.42

Time series data is ubiquitous in real world, and the similarity search in time series data is of great importance to many applications. This problem consists of two major parts: how to define the similarity between time series and how to search for similar time series efficiently. As for the similarity measure, the Euclidean distance is a good starting point; however, it also has several limitations. First, it is sensitive to the shifting and scaling transformations. Under a geometric model, we analyze this problem extensively and propose an angle-based similarity measure which is invariant to the shifting and scaling transformations. We then extend the conical index to support for the proposed angle-based similarity measure efficiently. Besides the distortions in amplitude axis, the Euclidean distance is also sensitive to the distortion in time axis; Dynamic Time Warping (DTW) distance is a very good similarity measure which is invariant to the time distortion. However, the time complexity of DTW is high which inhibits its application on large datasets. The index method under DTW distance is a common solution for this problem, and the lower-bound technique plays an important role in the indexing of DTW. We explain the existing lower-bound functions under a unified frame work and propose a group of new lower-bound functions which are much better. Based on the proposed lower-bound functions, an efficient index structure under DTW distance is implemented. In spite of the great success of DTW, it is not very suitable for the time scaling search problem where the time distortion is too large. We modify the traditional DTW distance and propose the Segment-wise Time Warping (STW) distance to adapt to the time scaling search problem. Finally, we devise an efficient search algorithm for the problem of online pattern detection in data streams under DTW distance. / Zhou, Mi. / "January 2007." / Adviser: Man Hon Wong. / Source: Dissertation Abstracts International, Volume: 68-09, Section: B, page: 6100. / Thesis (Ph.D.)--Chinese University of Hong Kong, 2007. / Includes bibliographical references (p. 167-180). / Electronic reproduction. Hong Kong : Chinese University of Hong Kong, [2012] System requirements: Adobe Acrobat Reader. Available via World Wide Web. / Electronic reproduction. [Ann Arbor, MI] : ProQuest Information and Learning, [200-] System requirements: Adobe Acrobat Reader. Available via World Wide Web. / Abstract in English and Chinese. / School code: 1307.

在實際分析數據的時候,我們經常遇到二元時間序列數據。在許多情況下，由於普通線性二元時間序列模型未必足以說明較複雜的社會和自然現象，許多分析家認為，多元非線性時間序列模型可以提供一個可行的解決方案。在許多不同類型的多元非線性時間序列中，一個重要的類別是二元門限自回歸（BTAR）模型。BTAR 模型可以充分捕到時間序列數據中的極限週期跳躍現象及振幅頻率。Tsay (1998) [37] 提出了多元的門限型的非線性檢驗。然而，這種檢驗對被異常點污染了的時間序列數據的表現不太令人滿意。為了糾正Tsay (1998) [37]檢驗的缺點，我們提出一個穩健的檢驗程序。本論文的重點是二元時間序列數據。重新加權二元最小消平方法被採用從而推出一個穩健的門限型非線性檢驗。亦得出該檢驗的統計量在原假設下的漸近分怖。透過模擬實驗,找出提出的檢驗的性能，並且與根據最小消平方法建立的Tsay (1998) [37]的檢驗作出比較，我們也會提供實際的數據例子給予說明。 / Bivariate time series data are frequently encountered in practical situations. In many cases, since ordinary linear bivariate time series models may not be sufficient to de-scribe complex social and natural phenomena, many analysts believe that vector non-linear time series models could provide a viable solution. Among many different types of vector non-linear time series processes, an important class is the bivariate threshold autoregressive (BTAR) model. BTAR model can be employed to capture limit cycles, jump phenomenon and amplitude-frequency in the time series data. A test for threshold-type non-linearity in a vector time series was proposed by Tsay (1998) [38]. However, this test does not perform satisfactorily if the data are contaminated by outliers. To remedy the drawback of the Tsay' s (1998) [38] test, we propose a robust testing procedure. The focus of this thesis is on bivariate time series data. The reweighted bivariate least trimmed squares method is adopted to derive a robust test for threshold-type non-linearity. The asymptotic null distribution of the proposed test statistic is dervied. Simulation studies are conducted to investigate the performance of the proposed test and to compare it with the least squares method based on the Tsay's (1998) [38] test. Numerical examples are provided for illustrative purposes. / Detailed summary in vernacular field only. / Chow, Wai Kit. / Thesis (M.Phil.)--Chinese University of Hong Kong, 2012. / Includes bibliographical references (leaves 40-44). / Abstracts also in Chinese. / Abstract --- p.i / Acknowledgement --- p.iii / Chapter 1 --- Introduction --- p.1 / Chapter 1.1 --- Linear Time Series Models and Their Applications --- p.1 / Chapter 1.2 --- Non-linear Time Series Models and Their Applications --- p.3 / Chapter 1.3 --- Threshold Autoregressive Model (TAR) and the Self-exciting Threshold Autoregressive Model (SETAR) --- p.4 / Chapter 1.4 --- Outliers in Univariate Time Series --- p.5 / Chapter 1.5 --- Bivariate Autoregressive Model (BAR) --- p.6 / Chapter 1.6 --- Bivariate Threshold Autoregressive Model (BTAR) --- p.7 / Chapter 1.7 --- Outliers in Bivariate Time Series --- p.8 / Chapter 1.8 --- Objectives of the Thesis --- p.9 / Chapter 1.9 --- Organisation of the Thesis --- p.10 / Chapter 2 --- The Proposed Test --- p.11 / Chapter 2.1 --- Tsay's Test --- p.11 / Chapter 2.2 --- Reweighted Multivariate Least Trimmed Squares Method --- p.14 / Chapter 2.3 --- The Proposed Test --- p.18 / Chapter 3 --- Simulation Study --- p.24 / Chapter 3.1 --- Under the Null Hypothesis --- p.24 / Chapter 3.2 --- Under the Alternative Hypothesis --- p.26 / Chapter 3.3 --- The Choice of γ and δ --- p.28 / Chapter 4 --- Examples --- p.31 / Chapter 4.1 --- Simulated Data --- p.31 / Chapter 4.2 --- Gas-Furnace Data --- p.33 / Chapter 4.3 --- Blowfly Data --- p.35 / Chapter 5 --- Conclusions and Further Research --- p.38 / Bibliography --- p.40

Cheung Tsai-Yee Crystal. / Thesis (M.Phil.)--Chinese University of Hong Kong, 2001. / Includes bibliographical references (leaves 83-85). / Abstracts in English and Chinese. / Chapter 1 --- Introduction --- p.1 / Chapter 1.1 --- The Importance of Forecasting --- p.1 / Chapter 2 --- Methodology --- p.5 / Chapter 2.1 --- Basic Idea --- p.5 / Chapter 2.2 --- Outliers in Time Series --- p.9 / Chapter 2.2.1 --- One Outlier Case --- p.9 / Chapter 2.2.2 --- Two Outliers Case --- p.17 / Chapter 2.2.3 --- General Case --- p.22 / Chapter 2.2.4 --- Time Series Parameters are Unknown --- p.24 / Chapter 2.3 --- Iterative Procedure for Detecting Outliers --- p.25 / Chapter 2.3.1 --- General Procedure for Detecting Outliers --- p.25 / Chapter 2.4 --- Methods of Constructing Simultaneous Prediction Intervals --- p.27 / Chapter 2.4.1 --- The Bonferroni Method --- p.28 / Chapter 2.4.2 --- The Exact Method --- p.28 / Chapter 3 --- An Illustrative Example --- p.29 / Chapter 3.1 --- Case A --- p.31 / Chapter 3.2 --- Case B --- p.32 / Chapter 3.3 --- Comparison --- p.33 / Chapter 4 --- Simulation Study --- p.36 / Chapter 4.1 --- Generate AR(1) with an Outlier --- p.36 / Chapter 4.1.1 --- Case A --- p.38 / Chapter 4.1.2 --- Case B --- p.40 / Chapter 4.2 --- Simulation Results I --- p.42 / Chapter 4.3 --- Generate AR(1) with Two Outliers --- p.45 / Chapter 4.4 --- Simulation Results II --- p.46 / Chapter 4.5 --- Concluding Remarks --- p.47 / Bibliography --- p.83

This thesis focuses on the development of semiparametric estimation methods for a class of time series models using shape constraints. Many of the existing time series models assume the noise follows some known parametric distributions. Typical examples are the Gaussian and t distributions. Then the model parameters are estimated by maximizing the resultant likelihood function. As an example, the autoregressive moving average (ARMA) models (Brockwell and Davis, 2009) assume Gaussian noise sequence and are estimated under the causal-invertible constraint by maximizing the Gaussian likelihood. Although the same estimates can also be used in the causal-invertible non-Gaussian case, they are not asymptotically optimal (Rosenblatt, 2012). Moreover, for the noncausal/noninvertible cases, the Gaussian likelihood estimation procedure is not applicable, since any second-order based methods cannot distinguish between causal-invertible and noncausal/noninvertible models (Brockwell and Davis,2009). As a result, many estimation methods for noncausal/noninvertible ARMA models assume the noise follows a known non-Gaussian distribution, like a Laplace distribution or a t distribution. To relax this distributional assumption and allow noncausal/noninvertible models, we borrow ideas from nonparametric shape-constraint density estimation and propose a semiparametric estimation procedure for general ARMA models by projecting the underlying noise distribution onto the space of log-concave measures (Cule and Samworth, 2010; Dümbgen et al., 2011). We show the maximum likelihood estimators in this semiparametric setting are consistent. In fact, the MLE is robust to the misspecification of log-concavity in cases where the true distribution of the noise is close to its log-concave projection. We derive a lower bound for the best asymptotic variance of regular estimators at rate sqrt(n) for AR models and construct a semiparametric efficient estimator. We also consider modeling time series of counts with shape constraints. Many of the formulated models for count time series are expressed via a pair of generalized state-space equations. In this set-up, the observation equation specifies the conditional distribution of the observation Yt at time t given a state-variable Xt. For count time series, this conditional distribution is usually specified as coming from a known parametric family such as the Poisson or the Negative Binomial distribution. To relax this formal parametric framework, we introduce a concave shape constraint into the one-parameter exponential family. This essentially amounts to assuming that the reference measure is log-concave. In this fashion, we are able to extend the class of observation-driven models studied in Davis and Liu (2016). Under this formulation, there exists a stationary and ergodic solution to the state-space model. In this new modeling framework, we consider the inference problem of estimating both the parameters of the mean model and the log-concave function, corresponding to the reference measure. We then compute and maximize the likelihood function over both the parameters associated with the mean function and the reference measure subject to a concavity constraint. The estimator of the mean function and the conditional distribution are shown to be consistent and perform well compared to a full parametric model specification. The finite sample behavior of the estimators are studied via simulation and two empirical examples are provided to illustrate the methodology.

The fundamental objective of the analysis of financial time series is to unveil the random mechanism, i.e. the probability law, underlying financial data. The effort to identify the truth that governs the observations involves proposing and estimating reasonable statistical models that well explain the empirical features of data. This thesis develops some new nonparametric tools that can be exploited in this context; the efficacy and validity of their use are supported by computational advancements and surging availability of large/complex (`big') data sets. Chapter 1 investigates the conditional first moment properties of financial returns. We propose multivariate extensions of the popular Variance Ratio (VR) statistic, aiming to test linear predictability of returns and weak-form market efficiency. We construct asymptotic distribution theories for the statistics and scalar functions thereof under the null hypothesis of no predictability. The imposed assumptions are weaker than those widely adopted in the literature, and in our view more credible with regard to the underlying data generating process we expect for stock returns. It is also shown that the limit theories can be extended to the long horizon and large dimension cases, and also to allow for a time varying risk premium. Our methods are applied to CRSP weekly returns from 1962 to 2013; the joint tests of the multivariate hypothesis reject the null at the 1% level for all horizons considered. Chapter 2 is about nonparametric estimation of conditional moments. We propose a local constant type estimator that operates with an infinite number of conditioning variables; this enables a direct estimation of many objects of econometric interest that have dependence upon the infinite past. We show pointwise and uniform consistency of the estimator and establish its asymptotic nomality in various static and dynamic regressions context. The optimal rate of estimation turns out to be of logarithmic order, and the precise rate depends on the Lambert W function, the smoothness of the regression operator and the dependence of the data in a non-trivial way. The theories are applied to investigate the intertemporal risk-return relation for the aggregate stock market. We report an overall positive risk-return relation on the S&P 500 daily data from 1950-2017, and find evidence of strong time variation and counter-cyclical behaviour in risk aversion. Lastly, Chapter 3 concerns nonparametric volatility estimation with high frequency time series. While data observed at finer time scale than daily provide rich information, their distinctive empirical properties bring new challenges in their analysis. We propose a Fourier domain based estimator for multivariate ex-post volatility that is robust to two major hurdles in high frequency finance: asynchronicity in observations and the presence of microstructure noise. Asymptotic properties are derived under some mild conditions. Simulation studies show our method outperforms time domain estimators when two assets with different liquidity are traded asynchronously.

Chan, Hon Kit. / Thesis (M.Phil.)--Chinese University of Hong Kong, 2011. / Includes bibliographical references (p. 57-59). / Abstracts in English and Chinese. / Chapter 1 --- Introduction --- p.1 / Chapter 1.1 --- Cluster Analysis in Time Series --- p.1 / Chapter 1.2 --- Dissimilarity Measure --- p.2 / Chapter 1.2.1 --- Euclidean Distance --- p.3 / Chapter 1.2.2 --- Pearson's Correlation Coefficient --- p.3 / Chapter 1.2.3 --- Other Measure --- p.4 / Chapter 1.3 --- Summary --- p.5 / Chapter 2 --- Algorithm and Methodology --- p.8 / Chapter 2.1 --- Algorithm and Methodology --- p.8 / Chapter 2.2 --- Illustrative Examples --- p.14 / Chapter 3 --- Simulation Study --- p.20 / Chapter 3.1 --- Simulation Plan --- p.20 / Chapter 3.2 --- Measure of Performance --- p.24 / Chapter 3.3 --- Simulation Results --- p.27 / Chapter 3.4 --- Results of k-means Clustering --- p.33 / Chapter 4 --- Application on Gene Expression --- p.37 / Chapter 4.1 --- Dataset --- p.37 / Chapter 4.2 --- Parameter Settings --- p.38 / Chapter 4.3 --- Results --- p.38 / Chapter 5 --- Conclusion and Further Research --- p.55

Fung, Yu Hin. / Thesis (M.Phil.)--Chinese University of Hong Kong, 2011. / Includes bibliographical references (leaves 39-40). / Abstracts in English and Chinese. / List of Figures --- p.v / List of Tables --- p.vii / Chapter 1 --- Introduction --- p.1 / Chapter 2 --- Extremogram --- p.3 / Chapter 2.1 --- Strictly Stationary --- p.3 / Chapter 2.2 --- Regularly Varying: A time series {Xt} --- p.3 / Chapter 2.3 --- (Upper) tail dependence --- p.5 / Chapter 2.4 --- Extremogram --- p.6 / Chapter 3 --- Simulated Models --- p.9 / Chapter 3.1 --- Autoregressive (AR) Process --- p.9 / Chapter 3.1.1 --- The simulation --- p.9 / Chapter 3.1.2 --- Theoretical findings --- p.11 / Chapter 3.2 --- Moving Average (MA) Process --- p.12 / Chapter 3.2.1 --- The simulation --- p.12 / Chapter 3.3 --- GARCH and SV --- p.25 / Chapter 4 --- Applications to Market Data --- p.29 / Chapter 4.1 --- Case study: 2011 Japan Earthquake EOD data --- p.29 / Chapter 4.1.1 --- Data description --- p.29 / Chapter 4.1.2 --- Results --- p.30 / Chapter 4.2 --- Case study: TEPCO multi-timeframe analysis --- p.31 / Chapter 4.2.1 --- Data description --- p.31 / Chapter 4.2.2 --- Results --- p.32 / Chapter 5 --- Summary --- p.37 / References --- p.39

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