Explosive volcanic eruptions frequently expel ballistic projectiles, producing a significant proximal hazard to people, buildings, infrastructure and the environment from their high kinetic and thermal energies. Ballistic hazard assessments are undertaken as a risk mitigation measure, to determine probabilities of eruptions occurring that may produce ballistics, identify areas and elements likely to be impacted by ballistics, and the potential vulnerabilities of elements to ballistics. The 6 August, 2012 hydrothermal eruption of Upper Te Maari Crater, Tongariro, New Zealand ejected blocks over a 6 km2 area, impacting ~2.6 km of the Tongariro Alpine Crossing (TAC), a walking track hiked by ~80,000 people a year, and damaging an overnight hut along the track. In this thesis ballistic hazard and risk from Upper Te Maari Crater are assessed through a review of its eruptive history, field and orthophoto mapping of the 6 August ballistic impact distribution, forward modelling and analysis of possible future eruption scenarios using a calibrated 3D ballistic trajectory model, and analysis of the vulnerability of hikers along the impacted Tongariro Alpine Crossing. Orthophoto mapping of the 6 August ballistic impact crater distribution revealed 3,587 impact craters with a mean diameter of 2.4 m. However, field mapping of accessible regions indicated an average of at least four times more observable impact craters and a smaller mean crater diameter of 1.2 m. By combining the orthophoto and ground-truthed impact frequency and size distribution data, it is estimated that approximately 13,200 ballistic projectiles were generated during the eruption. Ballistic impact distribution was used to calibrate a 3D ballistic trajectory model for the 6 August eruption. The 3D ballistic trajectory model and a series of inverse models were used to constrain the eruption directions, angles and velocities. When combined with eruption observations and geophysical observations and compared to the mapped distribution, the model indicated that the blocks were ejected in five variously directed eruption pulses, in total lasting 19 seconds. The model successfully reproduced the mapped impact distribution using a mean initial particle velocity of 200 m/s with an accompanying average gas flow velocity over a 400 m radius of 150 m/s. Assessment of the vulnerability of hikers to ballistics from the August eruption along the TAC utilised the modelled spatial density of impacts and an assumption that an average ballistic impact will cause serious injury or death (casualty) over an 8 m2 area. It is estimated that the probability of casualty ranged from 1% to 16% along the affected track (assuming an eruption during the time of exposure). Future ballistic hazard and vulnerability along the TAC are also assessed through application of the calibrated model. A magnitude larger eruption (than the 6 August) in which 10x more particles were ejected, doubled the affected length of the TAC and illustrated that the probability of casualty could reach 100% in localised areas of the track. In contrast, ballistics ejected from a smaller eruption did not reach the track as was the case with the 21 November 2012 eruption. The calibrated ballistic model can therefore be used to improve management of ballistic hazards both at Tongariro and also, once recalibrated, to other volcanoes worldwide.

North Crater occupies the north-western quadrant of the Tongariro Volcanic Centre and represents one of at least eleven vents which have been active on Tongariro since the last glacial maximum. The most recent cone-forming activity at North Crater is thought to have occurred between 14-12 ka ago to produce the distinct, wide, flattopped andesite cone. This project focused mainly on the cone-building eruptions at North Crater, including stratigraphic correlations with distal tephra, interpreting eruptive processes, and establishing the sequence of events during cone construction. Detailed field work identified key stratigraphic sections and facies in the proximal, medial and distal environments. These sections allowed stratigraphic correlations to be made between proximal cone-building facies and distal sheet-forming facies at North Crater, and established a complete North Crater eruption stratigraphy. In the proximal environment, welded and non to poorly welded facies formed from fallout of a lava-fountain, pyroclastic flow or as fallout from a convecting plume. In the medial and distal environment, the lithofacies consist of fallout from a convecting plume and minor pyroclastic flow. Convective fall and non to poorly welded pyroclastic flow deposits dominate the lower eruption stratigraphy suggesting explosive eruptions involving a gas-rich magma. A change to welded deposits produced from lava-fountaining occurs later in the cone-building sequence and suggest a change to lower explosively and eruption of gas-poor magma. Grain size, componentry data, density, petrography and SEM analysis were carried out on representative samples to characterise the different facies, and reveal information about eruption processes. The non to poorly welded deposits are typically made up of vesicular pumice, scoria and mingled clasts of sub-rounded bombs and lapilli. The welded facies are relatively dense and clast outlines are often difficult to distinguish. The eruptives are porphyritic with abundant plagioclase gt clinopyroxene gt orthopyroxene gt opaques. Quartzofeldspathic crustal xenoliths are common and indicate crustal assimilation. Mingled clasts of light and dark glass were found to have microlites present in the dark glass, but were absent in the light glass. Electron microprobe analyses found that the dark and light glass components in a single clast had similar compositions, showing that the contrasting physical appearance of the glass is not due to a different chemical composition. Forty three whole rock XRF analyses showed that the magmas ranged from basaltic andesite to andesite, and Harker variation plots display linear trends typical of magma mixing. Magma mixing as the most important magmatic process is supported by disequilibrium of phenocryst compositions and phenocryst textures. Magma viscosity, bulk density and temperature was determined using MAGMA (Kware), and indicate that they fall into the range of typical andesites. Eruptive activity involved vigorous lava-fountaining, minor convecting eruption plumes and dominant collapsing eruption plumes. This activity has produced welded and non-welded pyroclastic flow and fall deposits to form the large cone seen today. There are significant volcanic hazards associated with this style of activity at North Crater, characterised by lava-fountaining, eruption plume fallout, and widespread pyroclastic flows and lahars extending beyond the ring plain. These could all be potentially devastating to the central North Island of New Zealand.

Ngauruhoe is an active basaltic andesite to andesite composite cone volcano at the southern end of the Tongariro volcanic complex, and most recently erupted in 1954-55 and 1974-75. These eruptions constructed the inner crater of Ngauruhoe, largely composed of 1954-55 deposits, which are the basis of this study. The inner crater stratigraphy, exposed on the southern wall, is divided into seven lithostratigraphic units (A to G), while the northern stratigraphy is obscured by the inward collapse of the crater rim. The units are, from oldest to youngest: Unit A, (17.5 m thick), a densely agglutinated spatter deposit with sharp clast outlines; Unit B, (11.2 m) a thick scoria lapilli deposit with local agglutination and scattered spatter bombs up to 1 m in length; Unit C, (6.4 m thick) a clastogenic lava deposit with lateral variations in agglutination; and Unit D, (10 m thick) a scoria lapilli with varying local agglutination. The overlying Unit E (15 cm thick) is a fine ash fallout bed that represents the final vulcanian phase of the 1954-55 eruption. Unit F is a series of six lapilli and ash beds that represent the early vulcanian episode of the 1974-75 eruption. The uppermost Unit G (averaging 10 m thick) is a densely agglutinated spatter deposit that represents the later strombolian phase of the 1974-75 eruption. Units A-D juvenile clasts are porphyritic, with phenocrysts of plagioclase, orthopyroxene, clinopyroxene, minor olivine, within a microlitic glassy groundmass. Quartzose and greywacke xenoliths are common in most units, and are derived from the underlying basement. The 1954-55 and 1974-75 eruptions are a product of a short-lived, continental arc medium-K calc-alkaline magma. The magma originated from the mantle, then filtered through the crust, undergoing assimilation and fractionation, and evolving to basaltic andesite and andesite compositions. The magma body stagnated in shallow reservoirs where it underwent further crustal assimilation and fractionation of plagioclase and olivine, and homogenisation through magma mixing. Prior to the 1954-55 eruption a more primitive magma body was incorporated into the melt. The melt homogenised and fed both the 1954-55 and 1974-75 eruptions, with a residence time of at least 20 years. The 1954-55 eruption produced alternating basaltic andesite and andesite strombolian activity and more intense fire fountaining, erupting scoria and spatter that built up the bulk of the inner crater. A period of relative quiescence allowed the formation of a cooled, solid cap rock that resulted in the accumulation of pressure due to volatile exsolution and bubble coalescence. The fracturing of the cap rock then resulted in a vulcanian eruption, depositing a thin layer of fine ash and ballistic blocks. The 1974-75 eruption commenced with the rupturing of the near-solid cap rock from the 1954-55 eruption in an explosive vulcanian blast, the result of decompressional volatile exsolution and bubble coalescence, and possible magma-water interaction. The eruption later changed to strombolian style, producing a clastogenic lava that partially flowed back into the crater.