Doctor of Philosophy(PhD) / Globalisation in general and trade liberalisation in particular have impacted on many areas of industrialised governments’ foreign economic policy. Export support is an area which is inevitably affected by trade liberalisation, as governments are expected to decrease their intervention into exports in the name of barrier-free(er) trade. However, if one considers that the 1990s and 2000s have seen governments expanding their trade promotion agencies, increasing funding for export support provision and developing a range of new export support programmes, it is easy to recognise that government export support seems to have grown, rather than diminished over the past decade. This thesis investigates the complex influences of the world trade regime, to create a nuanced picture within globalisation theories - which ultimately explains the paradox of growing government support in the era of deepening trade liberalisation.

Many trade and development economists, policy makers and policy analysts around the world believe that globalisation promotes growth and reduces poverty. There exists a large body of theoretical and empirical literature on how trade liberalisation helps to promote growth and reduce poverty. However, critics of globalisation argue that, in developing countries, integration into the world economy makes the poor poorer and the rich richer. The most common criticism of globalisation is that it increases poverty and inequality. Much of the research related to the link between openness, growth and poverty has been based on cross-country regressions. Dollar and Kraay (2000; 2001), using regression analysis, argue that growth is pro poor. Moreover, their study suggests that growth does not affect distribution and poor as well as rich could benefit from it. Later, they demonstrate that openness to international trade stimulates rapid growth, thus linking trade liberalisation with improvements in wellbeing of the poor. Several other cross-country studies demonstrate a positive relationship between trade openness and economic growth (see for example Dollar, 1992; Sach and Warner, 1995 and Edward, 1998). In contrast, Rodriguez and Rodrik (2001) question the measurements related to trade openness in economic models, and suggest that generalisations cannot be made regarding the relationship between trade openness and growth. Several other studies also criticise the pro poor growth argument based upon the claim of weak econometrics and place more focus on the distributional aspect (see, for example, Rodrik, 2000). Ultimately, openness and growth have therefore become an empirical matter, and so has the relationship between trade and poverty. These weaknesses of cross-country studies have led to a need to provide evidence from case studies. Systematic case studies related to individual countries will at least complement cross-country studies such as that of Dollar and Kraay. As Chen and Ravallion (2004, p.30) argue, 'aggregate inequality or poverty may not change with trade reform even though there are gainers and losers at all levels of living'. They further argue that policy analysis which simply averages across diversities may miss important matters that are critical to the policy debate. In this study, Sri Lanka is used as a case study and a computable general equilibrium (CGE) approach is adopted as an analytical framework. Sri Lanka was selected as an interesting case in point to investigate this linkage for the following reasons: although Sri Lanka was the first country in the South Asian region to liberalise its trade substantially in the late seventies, it still experiences an incidence of poverty of a sizeable proportion that cannot be totally attributed to the long-standing civil conflict. Moreover, trade poverty linkage within the Sri Lankan context has hardly received any attention, while multi-sectoral general equilibrium poverty analysis within the Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) based CGE model has never been attempted. In order to examine the link between globalisation and poverty, a poverty focussed CGE model for the Sri Lankan economy has been developed in this study. As a requirement for the development of such a model, a SAM of the Sri Lankan economy for the year 1995 has been constructed. Moreover, in order to estimate the intra group income distribution in addition to the inter group income distribution, income distribution functional forms for different household groups have been empirically estimated and linked to the CGE model in 'top down' mode: this will compute a wide range of household level poverty and inequality measurements. This is a significant departure from the traditional representative agent hypothesis used to specifying household income distributions. Furthermore, as the general equilibrium framework permits endogenised prices, an attempt was made to endogenise the change in money metric poverty line within the CGE model. Finally, a set of simulation experiments was conducted to identify the impacts of trade liberalisation in manufacturing and agricultural industries on absolute and relative poverty at household level. The results show that, in the short run, trade liberalisation of manufacturing industries increases economic growth and reduces absolute poverty in low-income household groups. However, it is observed that the potential benefits accruing to the rural low-income group are relatively low compared to other two low-income groups. Reduction in the flow of government transfers to households following the loss of tariff revenue may be blamed for this trend. In contrast, long run results indicate that trade liberalisation reduces absolute poverty in substantial proportion in all groups. It further reveals that, in the long run, liberalisation of the manufacturing industries is more pro poor than that of the agricultural industries. Overall simulation results suggest that trade reforms may widen the income gap between the rich and the poor, thus promoting relative poverty. This may warrant active interventions with respect to poverty alleviation activities following trade policy reforms.

<p>How does the recent wave of preferential trading arrangements affect, the incentives for further trade liberalization of member states, and the possibility of obtaining global free trade? And are there any differences in this aspect between custom unions and other forms of preferential trading arrangements? These questions are well debated and have divided international trade researchers into two camps, one in favour for preferential trading arrangements and the other side against them. I have used well acknowledged researchers in the area of international trade theory to make a literature study of the above mentioned key elements in the debate. When comparing the two sides I have focused mainly on their differences, assumptions and results. I have come to the conclusion that there is nothing to be alarmed by of the wave of regionalism that’s occurring in the world today, but caution should be applied and more research in this area is necessary before any certain conclusions can be drawn. Free trade association seems to be welfare enhancing in general, with a few exceptions. I have found that the crucial points of what affect Free Trade Agreements will have on trade liberalization seems to be whether they are open or closed, how asymmetric the world is and the size of the trading blocs. The matter concerning custom unions are more alarming and seems to harm further trade liberalization in many aspects but this area also needs more research to give more reliable answers.</p>

Indonesia, Malaysia, The Philippines, and Thailand, have all chosen outward-oriented strat-egy over inward-oriented strategy to gain economic growth. This approach was due to the Asian miracles development. Therefore, protectionism had to cave in (Edwards, 1993). This thesis aim with the help of income terms of trade and GDPCAP to study the relation between trade and growth for these countries mentioned. Therefore, see if income terms of trade would work as an engine of growth for these countries. The purpose is to find a posi-tive correlation between the variables. ITT capture the price and volume effects when trade increases. That is why, ITT is used in this thesis, for the purpose that exports alone cannot explain growth if imports are left out. Time series was conducted with help of a unit root test, co-integration, and Granger causal-ity test. In each test made, the result provided showed of statistically significant values, hence, ITT is of relevance for growth in these countries, during 1980-2006.

How does the recent wave of preferential trading arrangements affect, the incentives for further trade liberalization of member states, and the possibility of obtaining global free trade? And are there any differences in this aspect between custom unions and other forms of preferential trading arrangements? These questions are well debated and have divided international trade researchers into two camps, one in favour for preferential trading arrangements and the other side against them. I have used well acknowledged researchers in the area of international trade theory to make a literature study of the above mentioned key elements in the debate. When comparing the two sides I have focused mainly on their differences, assumptions and results. I have come to the conclusion that there is nothing to be alarmed by of the wave of regionalism that’s occurring in the world today, but caution should be applied and more research in this area is necessary before any certain conclusions can be drawn. Free trade association seems to be welfare enhancing in general, with a few exceptions. I have found that the crucial points of what affect Free Trade Agreements will have on trade liberalization seems to be whether they are open or closed, how asymmetric the world is and the size of the trading blocs. The matter concerning custom unions are more alarming and seems to harm further trade liberalization in many aspects but this area also needs more research to give more reliable answers.

Trade agreements play a big part in international trade and have existed for as long as countries have been trading internationally. Countries often agree to sign a trade agreement with their trading partners because trade agreements can stimulate international trade by removing barriers. Trade agreements can also have a negative impact on a country, such as social injustice and economic inequality. South Africa has numerous trade agreements with various countries, one important agreement that South Africa is part of is the regional trade agreement between the European Union (EU) and the African, Caribbean and Pacific (ACP) countries which originated in 1976. The Economic Partnership Agreement (EPA) is a preferential trade agreement which evolved from the Cotonou Agreement which came into force in 2000 and envisioned the creation of mutual trade agreements. When this agreement expired in 2007, the (EPA) was created. The main objective of the EPA’s is to integrate the ACP countries into the world economy. The EU aims to combine trade, politics and development and enhance the political dimension of ACP countries by addressing issues such as corruption, poverty and inadequate development policies. The EU is in favour of the EPA because it will reduce the number of negotiations with various countries, which it currently holds simultaneously. South Africa had some reservations regarding the EPA. South Africa is currently governed by the Trade, Development and Co-operation Agreement (TDCA), which was created with specific goals and also acts as a strategic partnership between the EU and South Africa. If the EPA is implemented in South Africa, it will replace certain elements of the TDCA agreement. South Africa has characteristics of both a developed and developing economy and will be excluded from several of the general trade arrangements of the EPA. The EU is offering duty-free and quota-free access for all the countries except for South Africa. This will result in two different SACU tariffs for imports from the EU. South Africa also argues that various discrepancies will arise between the EPA and TDCA which will cause various challenges regarding political, legal and technical aspects between Southern African countries and this will hinder regional integration amongst these countries. There are various opinions as to which agreement will be more beneficial for South Africa. Where the EPA aims to create a single agreement for all ACP countries, the TDCA is an exclusive agreement between South Africa and the EU, and addresses issues specific to South Africa. The underlying problem is that South Africa has qualities of both a developed and a developing nation and is being excluded from some of the benefits that the EU is offering the other members. This rings some alarm bells, as South Africa and its neighbouring countries are working towards better regional integration. The EPA might have a negative influence on this regional integration because various African countries will benefit differently under the EPA. This Study analyses the possible effects the EPA could have on South Africa’s trade with the EU and South Africa’s neighbouring countries by means of a literature study and an empirical analysis. The first part of literature study gives an overview on trade theories and trade agreements, advantages of free trade, trade barriers and the likeliness of countries to trade with each other. The second part provides an in depth overview of regional and preferential trade agreements and economic integration. The Third section of the literature study gives a complete overview of South Africa and the EU’s economic and trade situation. The Fourth and final section of the literature study provides an overview of the TDCA and the EPA and compares the two agreements. The literature study is followed by an empirical analysis and an overview of the gravity model. The empirical analysis studied the impact of trade barriers on the historic trade between South Africa and the EU using a gravity model as a basis. The gravity model was used as a base for the regression models, because it has proven to give accurate estimations in previous studies done with similar trade data. This study used data for each variable for the time period 2000 to 2010 and was sourced from the World Bank and the International Trade Centre but there are data limitations. Separate models were estimated for exports from South Africa to the EU and imports to SA from the EU. From the import regression results, it was clear that the coefficients were very small and should all tariffs be eliminated, there will not be a significant increase in imports to South Africa from the EU. The export regression results were similar to the results of imports and indicated that if all tariffs should be eliminated with the implementation of the EPA, there will not be a significant increase in exports from South Africa to the EU. However the EPA stretches beyond only trade benefits and because the EU remains one of South Africa’s biggest trade and development partners, it is vital to consider the effects of the EPA. It does appear that the EPA’s main motivator is not international trade, but that it is rather political and development orientated. / Thesis (MCom (International Trade))--North-West University, Potchefstroom Campus, 2013.

Trade agreements play a big part in international trade and have existed for as long as countries have been trading internationally. Countries often agree to sign a trade agreement with their trading partners because trade agreements can stimulate international trade by removing barriers. Trade agreements can also have a negative impact on a country, such as social injustice and economic inequality. South Africa has numerous trade agreements with various countries, one important agreement that South Africa is part of is the regional trade agreement between the European Union (EU) and the African, Caribbean and Pacific (ACP) countries which originated in 1976. The Economic Partnership Agreement (EPA) is a preferential trade agreement which evolved from the Cotonou Agreement which came into force in 2000 and envisioned the creation of mutual trade agreements. When this agreement expired in 2007, the (EPA) was created. The main objective of the EPA’s is to integrate the ACP countries into the world economy. The EU aims to combine trade, politics and development and enhance the political dimension of ACP countries by addressing issues such as corruption, poverty and inadequate development policies. The EU is in favour of the EPA because it will reduce the number of negotiations with various countries, which it currently holds simultaneously. South Africa had some reservations regarding the EPA. South Africa is currently governed by the Trade, Development and Co-operation Agreement (TDCA), which was created with specific goals and also acts as a strategic partnership between the EU and South Africa. If the EPA is implemented in South Africa, it will replace certain elements of the TDCA agreement. South Africa has characteristics of both a developed and developing economy and will be excluded from several of the general trade arrangements of the EPA. The EU is offering duty-free and quota-free access for all the countries except for South Africa. This will result in two different SACU tariffs for imports from the EU. South Africa also argues that various discrepancies will arise between the EPA and TDCA which will cause various challenges regarding political, legal and technical aspects between Southern African countries and this will hinder regional integration amongst these countries. There are various opinions as to which agreement will be more beneficial for South Africa. Where the EPA aims to create a single agreement for all ACP countries, the TDCA is an exclusive agreement between South Africa and the EU, and addresses issues specific to South Africa. The underlying problem is that South Africa has qualities of both a developed and a developing nation and is being excluded from some of the benefits that the EU is offering the other members. This rings some alarm bells, as South Africa and its neighbouring countries are working towards better regional integration. The EPA might have a negative influence on this regional integration because various African countries will benefit differently under the EPA. This Study analyses the possible effects the EPA could have on South Africa’s trade with the EU and South Africa’s neighbouring countries by means of a literature study and an empirical analysis. The first part of literature study gives an overview on trade theories and trade agreements, advantages of free trade, trade barriers and the likeliness of countries to trade with each other. The second part provides an in depth overview of regional and preferential trade agreements and economic integration. The Third section of the literature study gives a complete overview of South Africa and the EU’s economic and trade situation. The Fourth and final section of the literature study provides an overview of the TDCA and the EPA and compares the two agreements. The literature study is followed by an empirical analysis and an overview of the gravity model. The empirical analysis studied the impact of trade barriers on the historic trade between South Africa and the EU using a gravity model as a basis. The gravity model was used as a base for the regression models, because it has proven to give accurate estimations in previous studies done with similar trade data. This study used data for each variable for the time period 2000 to 2010 and was sourced from the World Bank and the International Trade Centre but there are data limitations. Separate models were estimated for exports from South Africa to the EU and imports to SA from the EU. From the import regression results, it was clear that the coefficients were very small and should all tariffs be eliminated, there will not be a significant increase in imports to South Africa from the EU. The export regression results were similar to the results of imports and indicated that if all tariffs should be eliminated with the implementation of the EPA, there will not be a significant increase in exports from South Africa to the EU. However the EPA stretches beyond only trade benefits and because the EU remains one of South Africa’s biggest trade and development partners, it is vital to consider the effects of the EPA. It does appear that the EPA’s main motivator is not international trade, but that it is rather political and development orientated. / Thesis (MCom (International Trade))--North-West University, Potchefstroom Campus, 2013.

Doctor of Philosophy(PhD) / Globalisation in general and trade liberalisation in particular have impacted on many areas of industrialised governments’ foreign economic policy. Export support is an area which is inevitably affected by trade liberalisation, as governments are expected to decrease their intervention into exports in the name of barrier-free(er) trade. However, if one considers that the 1990s and 2000s have seen governments expanding their trade promotion agencies, increasing funding for export support provision and developing a range of new export support programmes, it is easy to recognise that government export support seems to have grown, rather than diminished over the past decade. This thesis investigates the complex influences of the world trade regime, to create a nuanced picture within globalisation theories - which ultimately explains the paradox of growing government support in the era of deepening trade liberalisation.

Magister Legum - LLM

Magister Legum - LLM / The aim of the research is to establish how trade distorting agricultural subsidies have impacted South Africa’s agricultural exports. The research will explore trade distorting subsidies and how South Africa’s trade liberalisation approach relative to its trading partners have impacted South Africa’s trade output, as well as suggesting effective policy recommendations for South Africa’s agricultural trade going forward.