The purpose of our thesis is to investigate the incentive mechanisms that may be used for a timely and successful implementation of Public-Private Partnership (PPP) projects. This purpose is achieved by investigating challenges and success factors within one of the largest Public-Private Partnership projects in Europe, the SESAR programme which stands for Single European Sky ATM Research and that aims at modernising the European air traffic management (ATM) system. The categories of SESAR actors that we investigated include: stakeholders (airspace users such as Air France, KLM, SAS; ANSPs from Sweden,Finland, Netherlands and the CANSO organisation; airport representatives including Swedavia, Zürich Airport and Guernsey Airport); as well as manufacturers (e.g. Airbus, Frequentis, Thales); international organisations as principals (e.g. European Commission – SESAR Joint Undertaking-, EUROCONTROL) and advisers (e.g. Helios UK). Referring to our contribution to the theory, we identify four categories of incentive mechanisms for timely implementation of large PPP projects: i. Financial incentives such as loans, proportionate with the level of risks the implementer bears; the deduction of loan fees or reduction of service charges can motivate stakeholders to implement earlier, once they identify a positive business case. ii. Operational incentives can refer to certain preferential treatment to those who comply and detrimental treatment to those who do not comply. iii. Legal incentives such as mandates can force commitment and have an impact on the timely implementation of PPP projects within a certain time-frame. iv. Intangible incentives, such as transparent communication, collaboration and less political behaviour, are seen as major factors contributing to the commitment and trust level among the actors involved, thus, enabling the success of the PPP project implementation.

Abstract: This thesis addresses the problem of graceful degradation for air traffic management systems (ATMS). The graceful degradation is the process by which the safety of the airspace is ensured in the event of failures or operational degradation in the system. After listing the main areas where failures and degradation can affect the ATMS, an ontology of the ATMS is proposed. The ontology allows to introduce failures at different levels, track their propagation throughout the system, and measure their operational impact. Then, two operational degradations are studied: The first degradation studied is a reduction in the landing capacity at San Francisco International Airport. The aircraft queueing process for terminal area is modeled and optimized to ensure a graceful degradation. The second degradation encompasses Communication, Navigation and Surveillance systems failures. The graceful degradation is ensured by increasing the spacing distance between aircraft, using novel algorithms of avoidance under uncertainties. Those algorithm also serve as probes to compare the degradation capabilities of different traffic configurations such as Miles-In-Trail and Free-Flight arrivals. Finally, this thesis focuses on monitoring the airspace for potential degradation. The ability and the difficulty of en-route traffic configuration are evaluated using degradation maps. Those maps can be used controller to rapidly and efficiently steer traffic from nominal mode of operations to mode of operations under abnormal conditions. Finally, a monitoring tool for terminal area is presented: the conformance of current flight to pre-identified typical operations is determined in real time. As the number of non-conforming aircraft increases, the complexity seen by air traffic controllers increases, and can become a threat for the airspace safety.

La ré-identification de véhicules permet d’estimer deux paramètres clés en gestion dynamique de trafic : les temps de parcours et les matrices origine-destination. Dans cette thèse, nous avons choisi d'effectuer cette ré-identification par analyse des signatures magnétiques mesurées par des capteurs tri-axiaux placés sur la chaussée. La signature magnétique est générée par l'aimantation du véhicule : elle est alors susceptible de varier en fonction de l'orientation du véhicule par rapport au champ magnétique terrestre (à cause de l'aimantation induite dans le plan horizontal), et en fonction de sa position latérale relative par rapport aux capteurs. Les expérimentations que nous avons menées nous ont permis d'obtenir une base de données de signatures magnétiques, et ainsi d'évaluer les performances des deux méthodes de ré-identification que nous avons élaborées.La première méthode consiste à comparer directement des paires de signatures magnétiques mesurées par les capteurs. Les calculs de distances entre les paires sont effectués avec des algorithmes classiques comme la distance euclidienne. Les résultats obtenus sont très bons, et baissent peu lorsque le véhicule change d'orientation. Toutefois, ils sont très sensibles à la déformation des signaux due au décalage latéral du véhicule, et nécessitent donc de positionner un capteur tous les 0.20m sur toute la largeur de la voie.Dans un second temps, nous proposons une méthode de ré-identification qui compare des paires de modèles magnétiques de véhicules. Ces modèles sont composés de plusieurs dipôles, et sont calculés à partir des signatures mesurées. La modélisation a pour but de s’affranchir du décalage latéral du véhicule, en remontant à la position relative du véhicule par rapport aux capteurs. Avec deux fois moins de capteurs que la méthode précédente, les résultats obtenus sur signaux réels sont également très bons, même s'ils sont un peu plus sensibles au changement d'orientation du véhicule. De plus, une simulation nous permet d'extrapoler qu'il est effectivement possible de s'affranchir du décalage latéral avec cette méthode. / Vehicle re-identification gives access to two essential data for dynamic traffic management: travel times and origin-destination matrices. In this thesis, we chose to re-identify vehicles by analysing their magnetic signatures measured with several 3-axis magnetic sensors located on the road. A magnetic signature is created by the vehicle magnetization. Therefore, the vehicle orientation to the Earth’s magnetic field (which determines the induced magnetization) and the variation of the lateral position of the vehicle relative to the sensors’ one might both have an impact on the magnetic signature. We gathered our experiments’ results into a database of magnetic signatures that we used to evaluate the performances of the two vehicle re-identification methods we developed.The first method is a direct comparison of pairs of magnetic signatures measured by the sensors. Distances between pairs of signatures are computed using classic algorithms such as the Euclidean distance. This method’s results are very positive and the vehicle change of orientation has only a slight impact on them. However, the distortion of signals due to a lateral offset in the vehicle position has a strong impact on the results. As a consequence, sensors have to be placed every 0.20m over the road’s entire width.The second proposed method compares pairs of vehicles’ magnetic models. Those models are composed of several magnetic dipoles and are determined from the measured signatures. Magnetic modelling aims to suppress the influence of the vehicle lateral position on the results by assessing the relative position of the vehicle above the sensors. Although the vehicle orientation has slightly more impact on the performances than with the first method, the overall results are more promising. This method also allows us to divide by two the number of sensors used.

In both developed and emerging-economies, major cities continue to experience increasing traffic congestion. To address this issue, complex Traffic Management Systems (TMS) are employed in recent years to help manage traffic. These systems fuse traffic-surveillance-related information from a variety of sensors deployed across traffic networks. A TMS requires real-time information to make effective control decisions and to deliver trustworthy information to users, such as travel time, congestion level, etc. There are three fundamental inputs required by TMS, namely, traffic volume, vehicular speed, and traffic density. Using conventional traffic loop detectors one can directly measure flow and velocity. However, traffic density is more difficult to measure. The situation becomes more difficult for multi-lane motorways due to drivers lane-change behaviour. This research investigates statistical modelling and analysis of traffic flow. It contributes to the literature of transportation and traffic management and research in several aspects. First, it takes into account lane-changes in traffic modelling through incorporating a Markov chain model to describe the drivers lane-change behaviour. Secondly, the lane change probabilities between two adjacent lanes are not assumed to be fixed but rather they depend on the current traffic condition. A discrete choice model is used to capture drivers lane choice behaviour. The drivers choice probabilities are modelled by several traffic-condition related attributes such as vehicle time headway, traffic density and speed. This results in a highly nonlinear state equation for traffic density. To address the issue of high nonlinearity of the state space model, the EKF and UKF is used to estimate the traffic density recursively. In addition, a new transformation approach has been proposed to transform the observation equation from a nonlinear form to a linear one so that the potential approximation in the EKF & UKF can be avoided. Numerical studies have been conducted to investigate the performance of the developed method. The proposed method outperformed the existing methods for traffic density estimation in simulation studies. Furthermore, it is shown that the computational cost for updating the estimate of traffic densities for a multi-lane motorway is kept at a minimum so that online applications are feasible in practice. Consequently the traffic densities can be monitored and the relevant information can be fed into the traffic management system of interest.

Thesis (MSc (Mathematical Sciences. Computer Science))--University of Stellenbosch, 2008. / Consider a path-oriented telecommunications network where calls arrive to each route in a Poisson process. Each call brings on average a fixed number of packets that are offered to route. The packet inter-arrival times and the packet lengths are exponentially distributed. Each route can queue a finite number of packets while one packet is being transmitted. Each accepted packet/call generates an amount of revenue for the route manager. At specified time instants a route manager can acquire additional capacity (“interface capacity”) in order to carry more calls and/or the manager can acquire additional buffer space in order to carry more packets, in which cases the manager earns more revenue; alternatively a route manager can earn additional revenue by selling surplus interface capacity and/or by selling surplus buffer space to other route managers that (possibly temporarily) value it more highly. We present a method for efficiently computing the buying and the selling prices of buffer space. Moreover, we propose a bandwidth reallocation scheme capable of improving the network overall rate of earning revenue at both the call level and the packet level. Our reallocation scheme combines the Erlang price [4] and our proposed buffer space price (M/M/1/K prices) to reallocate interface capacity and buffer space among routes. The proposed scheme uses local rules and decides whether or not to adjust the interface capacity and/or the buffer space. Simulation results show that the reallocation scheme achieves good performance when applied to a fictitious network of 30-nodes and 46-links based on the geography of Europe.

La ré-identification de véhicules permet d’estimer deux paramètres clés en gestion dynamique de trafic : les temps de parcours et les matrices origine-destination. Dans cette thèse, nous avons choisi d'effectuer cette ré-identification par analyse des signatures magnétiques mesurées par des capteurs tri-axiaux placés sur la chaussée. La signature magnétique est générée par l'aimantation du véhicule : elle est alors susceptible de varier en fonction de l'orientation du véhicule par rapport au champ magnétique terrestre (à cause de l'aimantation induite dans le plan horizontal), et en fonction de sa position latérale relative par rapport aux capteurs. Les expérimentations que nous avons menées nous ont permis d'obtenir une base de données de signatures magnétiques, et ainsi d'évaluer les performances des deux méthodes de ré-identification que nous avons élaborées.La première méthode consiste à comparer directement des paires de signatures magnétiques mesurées par les capteurs. Les calculs de distances entre les paires sont effectués avec des algorithmes classiques comme la distance euclidienne. Les résultats obtenus sont très bons, et baissent peu lorsque le véhicule change d'orientation. Toutefois, ils sont très sensibles à la déformation des signaux due au décalage latéral du véhicule, et nécessitent donc de positionner un capteur tous les 0.20m sur toute la largeur de la voie.Dans un second temps, nous proposons une méthode de ré-identification qui compare des paires de modèles magnétiques de véhicules. Ces modèles sont composés de plusieurs dipôles, et sont calculés à partir des signatures mesurées. La modélisation a pour but de s’affranchir du décalage latéral du véhicule, en remontant à la position relative du véhicule par rapport aux capteurs. Avec deux fois moins de capteurs que la méthode précédente, les résultats obtenus sur signaux réels sont également très bons, même s'ils sont un peu plus sensibles au changement d'orientation du véhicule. De plus, une simulation nous permet d'extrapoler qu'il est effectivement possible de s'affranchir du décalage latéral avec cette méthode. / Vehicle re-identification gives access to two essential data for dynamic traffic management: travel times and origin-destination matrices. In this thesis, we chose to re-identify vehicles by analysing their magnetic signatures measured with several 3-axis magnetic sensors located on the road. A magnetic signature is created by the vehicle magnetization. Therefore, the vehicle orientation to the Earth’s magnetic field (which determines the induced magnetization) and the variation of the lateral position of the vehicle relative to the sensors’ one might both have an impact on the magnetic signature. We gathered our experiments’ results into a database of magnetic signatures that we used to evaluate the performances of the two vehicle re-identification methods we developed.The first method is a direct comparison of pairs of magnetic signatures measured by the sensors. Distances between pairs of signatures are computed using classic algorithms such as the Euclidean distance. This method’s results are very positive and the vehicle change of orientation has only a slight impact on them. However, the distortion of signals due to a lateral offset in the vehicle position has a strong impact on the results. As a consequence, sensors have to be placed every 0.20m over the road’s entire width.The second proposed method compares pairs of vehicles’ magnetic models. Those models are composed of several magnetic dipoles and are determined from the measured signatures. Magnetic modelling aims to suppress the influence of the vehicle lateral position on the results by assessing the relative position of the vehicle above the sensors. Although the vehicle orientation has slightly more impact on the performances than with the first method, the overall results are more promising. This method also allows us to divide by two the number of sensors used.

Le trafic aérien en Europe représente environ 30 000 vols quotidiens actuellement. Selon les prévisions de l’organisme Eurocontrol, ce trafic devrait croître de 70% d’ici l’année 2020 pour atteindre 50 000 vols quotidiens. L’espace aérien, découpé en zones géographiques appelées secteurs de contrôle, atteindra bientôt son niveau de saturation vis-à-vis des méthodes actuelles de planification et de contrôle. Afin d’augmenter la quantité de trafic que peut absorber le système, il est nécessaire de diminuer la charge de travail des contrôleurs aériens en les aidant dans leur tâche de séparation des avions. En se fondant sur les demandes de plans de vol des compagnies aériennes, nous proposons une méthode de planification des trajectoires en 4D permettant de présenter au contrôleur un trafic dont la plupart des conflits auront été évités en avance. Cette planification s’établit en deux étapes successives, ayant chacune un unique degré de liberté : une allocation de niveaux de vol permettant la résolution des conflits en croisière puis une allocation d’heures de décollage permettant de résoudre les conflits restants. Nous présentons des modèles pour ces deux problèmes d’optimisation fortement combinatoires, que nous résolvons en utilisant la programmation par contraintes ou les algorithmes évolutionnaires, ainsi que des techniques permettant de prendre en compte des incertitudes sur les heures de décollage ou le suivi de trajectoire. Les simulations conduites sur l’espace aérien français mènent à des situations où tous les conflits sont évités, avec des retards alloués de l’ordre d’une minute en moyenne (80 à 90 minutes pour le vol le plus retardé) et un écart par rapport à l’altitude optimale limité à un niveau de vol pour la quasi totalité des vols. La prise en compte d’incertitudes de manière statique dégrade fortement ces solutions peu robustes, mais nous proposons un modèle dynamique utilisant une fenêtre glissante susceptible de prendre en compte des incertitudes de quelques minutes avec un impact réduit sur le coût de l’allocation. / Air traffic in Europe represents about 30,000 flights each day and forecasts from Eurocontrol predict a growth of 70% by 2020 (50,000 flights per day). The airspace, made up of numerous control sectors, will soon be saturated given the current planification and control methods. In order to make the system able to cope with the predicted traffic growth, the air traffic controllers workload has to be reduced by automated systems that help them handle the aircraft separation task. Based on the traffic demand by airlines, this study proposes a new planning method for 4D trajectories that provides conflict-free traffic to the controller. This planning method consists of two successive steps, each handling a unique flight parameter : a flight level allocation phase followed by a ground holding scheme.We present constraint programming models and an evolutionary algorithm to solve these large scale combinatorial optimization problems, as well as techniques for improving the robustness of the model by handling uncertainties of takeoff times and trajectory prediction. Simulations carried out over the French airspace successfully solved all conflicts, with a mean of one minute allocated delay (80 to 90 minutes for the most delayed flight) and a discrepancy from optimal altitude of one flight level for most of the flights. Handling uncertainties with a static method leads to a dramatic increase in the cost of the previous non-robust solutions. However, we propose a dynamic model to deal with this matter, based on a sliding time horizon, which is likely to be able to cope with a few minutes of uncertainty with reasonable impact on the cost of the solutions.

Cette thèse s'intéresse au problème de conception optimale des routes de départ et d'arrivée dans une zone terminale autour d'un aéroport. Cette conception prend en compte la configuration et l'environnement autour des aéroports, et les différentes contraintes sous-jacentes, notamment l'évitement des obstacles et la séparation des routes. Nous proposons une formulation mathématique conduisant à un problème d'optimisation combinatoire, ainsi que des méthodes de résolution ad hoc efficaces pour le problème. Pour la résolution du problème, nous procédons en deux étapes. Nous considérons d'abord la conception d'une route de longueur minimale évitant les obstacles, en utilisant la méthode de Branch and Bound (B&B). Ensuite, nous nous intéressons à la conception de plusieurs routes en assurant en plus la séparation des routes. Deux approches différentes sont appliquées : une méthode basée sur la méthode B&B pour construire les routes séquentiellement suivant un ordre fixé à l'avance, et une méthode de recuit simulé pour construire les routes simultanément. Les résultats sur un ensemble de problèmes tests (artificiels et réels) montrent l'efficacité de notre approche. / This thesis proposes a methodology for the optimization of departure and arrival routes in the Terminal Maneuvering Area (TMA). The design of these routes takes into account the configuration and environment around airports, and the related constraints, in particular the avoidance of obstacles and the separation between routes. We propose a mathematical formulation leading to a combinatorial optimization problem, as well as efficient ad hoc resolution methods for the problem. The problem is solved in two steps. First, we design an individual route avoiding obstacles with respect to minimum route length by using a Branch and Bound (B&B) method. Afterwards, the design of multiple routes is solved by two different approaches: a B&B-based approach (where routes are generated sequentially in a given order) and a Simulated Annealing approach (where routes are generated simultaneously). The simulation results of a set of (artificial and real) test problems show the efficiency of our approach.

Made available in DSpace on 2016-06-02T20:00:53Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 5540.pdf: 9186598 bytes, checksum: c3f42a5a8f2a8a6b266c43e4bb26b728 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2012-08-29 / Financiadora de Estudos e Projetos / The modernization of the cities has brought an improvement in the lives of the urban population, although the negative consequences weigh considerably. In any kind of transformation, the negative effects are not always considered and treated to abolish them or less minimize them. Traffic is a clear example of this fact. The significant increase in the fleet of vehicles has generated several urban problems such as high rates of occurrence and severity of traffic accidents, congestion and degradation of the urban environment, influencing the quality of life. With the enactment of the Brazilian Traffic Code (CTB) in 1988, municipalities assumed the responsibility to manage their traffic, adding to his responsibilities the authority to act in this area taking into account the interests and local peculiarities. In this sense, each municipality must municipalise directly assuming the powers specified in Article 24 of the CTB. However, municipalities have been reluctant to take charge of decentralization of traffic. According to data DENATRAN (2012), only 1,221 municipalities have effectively assumed the management of their traffic, which corresponds to 29% of 5,563 Brazilian municipalities. Many factors can be pointed as responsible for this reluctance, and one of them is the lack of knowledge of the reality of local traffic. It is important that the institutions, who are competent to intervene on the county road system and its maintenance, to know the dynamics of the space on which they intend to launch campaigns, a quality management includes the selection, acquisition, integration and use of information so systematized. The management and analysis of information associated with meaningful comparisons must adequately support the decision making process within the organization. Given this, the Geographic Information Systems - GIS become an effective tool and capable of helping the management, providing a modern and agile tool for specialized studies, with the recognition of the traffic situation as a whole. Therefore, this paper aims to contribute to the management of municipal public transit in cities small and medium-sized Brazilian, through the development of a tutorial to support the implementation of a geographic information system free - Free GIS, showing that it is not always necessary high investment amount for the production of quality information for management of a city road. / A modernização das cidades tem trazido melhoria na vida da população urbana, embora as consequências adversas pesem consideravelmente. Em todo tipo de transformação, os efeitos negativos nem sempre são considerados e tratados de maneira a extingui-los ou, ao menos, minimizá-los. O trânsito é um exemplo claro deste fato. O aumento significativo da frota de veículos automotores tem gerado inúmeros problemas urbanos, tais como: elevadas taxas de ocorrência e severidade de acidentes de trânsito, congestionamentos e degradação do ambiente urbano, influenciando a qualidade de vida da população. O Código de Trânsito Brasileiro (CTB), de 1988, tornou possível que os municípios assumissem a incumbência de gerenciar o seu trânsito, somando à sua responsabilidade a competência para atuar nessa área, atendendo aos interesses e peculiaridades locais. Nesse sentido, cada município pode municipalizar assumindo diretamente as competências especificadas no Art. 24 do CTB. Porém, os municípios têm relutado em assumir o encargo da municipalização do trânsito. De acordo com dados do DENATRAN (2012), apenas 1.221 municípios já assumiram efetivamente o gerenciamento do seu trânsito, o que corresponde a 29 % do total de 5.563 municípios brasileiros. Muitos fatores podem ser apontados como responsáveis por esta relutância e, um deles é a falta de conhecimento da realidade do trânsito local. É importante que os órgãos, aos quais compete a intervenção sobre o sistema viário do município, bem como a sua manutenção, conheçam a dinâmica do espaço sobre o qual pretendem viabilizar ações, uma gestão com qualidade engloba a seleção, obtenção, integração e uso de informações de forma sistematizadas. A gestão e análise de informações, associadas com comparações pertinentes, devem apoiar adequadamente o processo decisório dentro da organização. Diante disto, os Sistemas de Informação Geográfica SIG tornam-se uma ferramenta eficaz e capaz de auxiliar a gestão, possibilitando um moderno e ágil instrumento para estudos especializados, com o reconhecimento da situação do trânsito como um todo. Portanto, este trabalho buscou contribuir com a gestão pública municipal de trânsito em cidades de pequeno e médio portes brasileiras, por meio do desenvolvimento de um tutorial para subsidiar a implantação de um sistema de informação geográfica livre - SIG Livre, mostrando que nem sempre é necessário investimentos de alto montante para a produção de informações com qualidade, para gerenciamento viário de um município.

A evolução de sistemas de gerenciamento de tráfego aéreo é pesquisada para suportar o crescimento na demanda por transporte aéreo. Uma alternativa para essa evolução é o aumento no grau de automação. Os sistemas automatizados precisam ser tão seguros quanto os sistemas em operação atualmente. Com o uso de técnicas de especificação e verificação formal é possível avaliar os requisitos de sistemas. Neste trabalho, é proposto um ciclo de especificação formal, que consiste em um conjunto de diretrizes para aplicação de técnicas de métodos formais em requisitos escritos em linguagem natural. O resultado esperado da aplicação deste ciclo é um conjunto de requisitos escritos em linguagem natural verificados formalmente. O ciclo é composto pelas etapas: levantamento de requisitos do sistema e classificação em padrões de especificação; mapeamento dos requisitos para as linguagens de especificação formal LTL (Linear Temporal Logic) e CTL (Computation Tree Logic); verificação formal da especificação com o verificador NuSMV; ajustes na especificação baseada nos resultados da verificação; ajustes nos requisitos baseados nos ajustes na especificação. As diretrizes propostas são definidas com a análise da verificação formal do Automated Airspace Concept (AAC), padrões de especificação e diretrizes para uso do verificador NuSMV. Os resultados esperados são obtidos na aplicação do ciclo de especificação em dois estudos de caso. A principal contribuição do trabalho é o conjunto de diretrizes para elaboração de expressões escritas em linguagem de especificação formal baseadas em requisitos escritos em linguagem natural e que podem ser verificadas formalmente. / Air traffic management systems evolution is being researched to support air transportation demand growth. An evolution alternative is system automation degree increase. Automated systems need to be as safe as current operating systems. It is possible to analyze system requirements with the application of formal specification and formal verification techniques. In this work, a specification cycle is proposed. The specification cycle is a set of guidelines to use formal method techniques on requirements written in natural language. The specification cycle application expected result is a set of formally verified requirements written in natural language. This cycle is comprised of the following stages: system requirements elicitation and specification pattern classification; requirements mapping to LTL (Linear Temporal Logic) and CTL (Computation Tree Logic) formal specification languages; specification formal verification using the NuSMV verifier; formal specification adjustment based on verification results; requirements adjustment based on formal specification adjustment. The proposed guidelines are defined with the Automated Airspace Concept (AAC) formal verification analysis, specification patterns and guidelines for the NuSMV formal verifier use. The expected results are accomplished in the specification cycle application on two study cases. The main contribution of this work is the set of guidelines applied to formulate formally verifiable expressions specified in formal specification languages based on system requirements written in natural language.