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On the Design and Numerical Analysis of Tradable Mobility Credit StrategiesTian, Ye January 2015 (has links)
Traffic congestion has been placing an extremely high burden on the development of modern cities. Congestion can be alleviated by either increasing road capacity, or by reducing traffic demand. For decades, increasing capacity by building more roads and lanes has been the major solution applied to accommodate the ever-growing traffic demand. However, it turns out to be of limited effect due to some well-known phenomenon such as latent demand. Controlling and managing traffic demand has in turn been viewed as a cost-effective alternative to increasing road capacity, as has been demonstrated many successful applications all around the world. Within the concept framework of Traffic Demand Management (TDM), Active Transportation and Demand Management (ATDM) is the dynamic management, control, and influence of traffic demand and traffic flow of transportation facilities. ATDM strategies attempt to influence traveler behavior and further manage traffic flow in a time-dependent manner within the existing infrastructure Successful ATDM applications include congestion pricing, adaptive ramp metering, dynamic speed limits, dynamic lane use control, etc. Singapore stands out to be an excellent success story of ATDM, as the implementations of "Cap and Trade" license plates and electronic road pricing make motoring a high cost privilege for citizens of Singapore, making the public relies on transit. Monetary leverage is an effective instrument to facilitate ATDM. Examples of ATDM applications adopting monetary instrument includes dynamic congestion pricing, "Cap and Trade" of car licenses, etc. Taking congestion pricing as an example, policy makers are inducing travelers' behavior and alternating their preferences towards different behavior decisions by levying price tags to different choices. As an important underpinning of rationing choice theory, an individual assigns an ordinal number over the available actions and this ordinal number is calculated by their utility function or payoff function. The individual's preference is expressed as the relationship between those ordinal assignments. In the implementation of congestion pricing, policy makers are imposing an additional high disutility to congested roads and therefore pushing some of the travelers to take alternative routes or shift to alternative departure times or even cancel the trips. However, congestion pricing suffers from public aversion as it creates burden on the motoring of low-income people and therefore doesn't help to alleviate social inequality. The concept of Tradable Mobility Credit (TMC) has been proposed by a group of researchers as another innovative application to facilitate dynamic traffic demand management and solve social inequality issues using pricing instruments. The concept of TMC is borrowed from carbon trading in environmental control. A limited quota of personal auto usage is issued to eligible travelers and credits can be traded in a free market fashion. This guarantees that the roadway usage does not exceed capacity while avoiding the negative effects of shortages normally associated with quotation systems. TMC is literally not a market-ready policy as the integration of the supporting infrastructures, including the trading market, the credit assignment component, and the credit charging component, has not been fully explored yet. Existing TMC research focuses on explaining and exploring the equilibrium condition through analytical methods such as mathematical modeling. Analytical models produce perfect convergence curves and deterministic equilibrium traffic flow patterns. Analytical models provide influential guidance for further works but the solution procedure may encounter problems when dealing with larger real world networks and scenarios. Meantime, current analytical models don't consider the microstructure of the credit trading market sufficiently while it's actually the most unique component of TMC system. Motivated by those concerns, an integrated TMC evaluation platform consisting of a policy making module and traveler behavior modules are proposed in this research. The concept of Agent-Based Modeling and Simulation (ABMS) is extensively adopted in this integrated platform as each individual traveler carries his/her personal memory across iterations. The goal of establishing this framework is to better predict a traveler's route choice and trading behavior if TMC is imposed and further provide intelligence to potential policy makers' decision making process. The proposed integrated platform is able to generate results at different aggregation levels, including both individual level microscopic behavior data as well as aggregated traffic flow and market performance data. In order to calibrate the proposed integrated platform, an online interactive experiment is designed based on an experimental economic package and a human research element with 22 participants has been conducted on this experiment platform to gather field data regarding a real person's route choice behavior and credit trading behavior in an artificial TMC system. Participants are recruited from forum, listserve, social media, etc. The calibrated platform is proved to have the ability to predict travelers' behavior accurately. A prototype market microstructure is proposed in this research as well and it is proved to be a cost-effective setting and resulted to a vast amount of economic saving given the fact that travelers would behave similar to the prediction generated by traveler behavior module. It's also demonstrated that the principle of Pareto-improving is not achieved in the proposed ABMS models.
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Infrastructure Condition Assessment and Prediction under Variable Traffic Demand and Management ScenariosAbi Aad, Mirla 08 November 2022 (has links)
Departments of Transportation (DOTs) are responsible for keeping their road network in a state of good repair while also aiming to reduce congestion through the implementation of different traffic control and demand management strategies. These strategies can result in changes in traffic volume distributions, which in turn affect the level of pavement deterioration due to traffic loading. To address this issue, this dissertation introduces an integrated simulation-optimization framework that accounts for the combined effects of pavement conditions and traffic management decision-making strategies. The research focuses on exploring the range of possible performance outcomes resulting from this integrated modeling approach. The research also applied the developed framework to a particular traffic demand management strategy and assessed the impact of dynamic tolls around the specific site of I-66 inside the beltway. The integrated traffic-management/pavement-treatment framework was applied to address both the operational and pavement performance of the network. Aimsun hybrid macro/meso dynamic user equilibrium experiments were used to simulate the network with a modified cost function taking care of the dynamic pricing along the I-66 tolled facility. Furthermore, the framework was expanded to include the development of a systematic and comprehensive methodology to optimize the allocation of networkwide pavement treatment work zones over space and time. The proposed methodology also contributed to the development of a surrogate function that reduces the optimization computation burden so that researchers would be able to conduct work zone allocation optimization without having to run expensive simulation work. Finally, in this dissertation, a user-friendly decision-support tool was developed to assist in the pavement treatment and project selection planning process. We use machine learning models to encapsulate the simulation optimization process. / Doctor of Philosophy / Departments of Transportation (DOTs) are responsible for keeping their road network in a state of good repair. Improvement in pavement rehabilitation plans can lead to savings in the order of tens of millions of dollars. Pavement rehabilitation plans result in work zone schedules on the transportation network. Limited roadway capacities due to work zones affect traffic assignments and routing on the roads, which impacts the selection of optimal operation strategies to manage the resulting traffic. On the other hand, the choice of any particular operation and routing strategy will result in different distributions of traffic volumes on the roads and affect the pavement deterioration levels due to traffic loading, leading to other optimal rehabilitation plans and corresponding work zones. While there have been several research efforts on infrastructure condition assessment and other research efforts on traffic control and demand management strategies, there is a wide gap in the nexus of the two fields. To address this issue, this dissertation introduces an integrated simulation-optimization framework that accounts for the combined effects of pavement conditions and traffic management decision-making strategies. The research focuses on exploring the range of possible performance outcomes resulting from this integrated modeling approach. The research also applied the developed framework to a particular traffic demand management strategy and assessed the impact of dynamic tolls around the specific site of I-66 inside the beltway. The integrated traffic-management/pavement-treatment framework was applied to address both the operational and pavement performance of the network. Furthermore, the framework was expanded to include the development of a systematic and comprehensive methodology to optimize the allocation of networkwide pavement treatment work zones over space and time. The proposed methodology also contributed to the development of a surrogate function that reduces the optimization computation burden so that researchers would be able to conduct work zone allocation optimization without having to run expensive simulation work. Finally, in this dissertation, a user-friendly decision-support tool was developed to assist in the pavement treatment and project selection planning process. We use machine learning models to encapsulate the simulation optimization process.
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