Yes / Financial performance of insurance companies is captured by changes in rating grades. An insurer is susceptible to a rating transition which is a signal depicting current financial conditions. We employ Rating Transition Matrices (RTM) to analyse these transitions. Within this context, credit quality can either improve, remain stable or deteriorate as reflected by a rating upgrade or downgrade. We investigate rating trends and forecast rating transitions for UK insurers. We also provide insights into the effects of the global financial crisis on financial performance of UK insurance companies, as reflected by rating changes. Our analysis shows a significant degree of rating changes, as reflected by rating fluctuations in rating matrices. We conclude that insurers with higher (better) rating grades depict rating stability over the long-run. An unexpected but interested finding shows that insurers with good rating grades are nevertheless susceptible to rating fluctuations. General insurers are more likely to be rated and they demonstrate higher levels of rating grade variations over the period studied. Using comparative rating transition matrices, we find more variations in rating movements in the post-financial crisis period. We also conclude that general insurers reflect less stable rating outlooks compared to life and general insurers.

The determinants that affect the financial performance of an insurance company are complicated due to the intangible nature of insurance products and the lack of transparency in the market. Consequently, the financial performance of insurance companies is important to various stakeholders such as policyholders, insurance intermediaries and policymakers. This study aims to investigate the determinants of financial performance of insurance companies based on their financial strength rating performance. The empirical data are drawn from A.M. Best Insurance Report Online: Non- US Database. The sample consists of 57 insurers in the United Kingdom over the period of 2006 to 2010. The analyses include eight firm-specific variables, which are leverage, profitability, liquidity, size, reinsurance, growth, type of business and organisational form. Rating transition matrices and regression models are employed in this study. Rating transition analysis demonstrates a significant degree of rating changes, as reflected in the rating fluctuations. Based on the empirical results, this study establishes that profitability, liquidity, size and organisational form are statistically significant determinants of financial performance of insurance companies in the United Kingdom. This study recommends an alternative to measure the size of an insurance company, which is based on the gross premium written. In addition, this study provides insights into the effects of the global financial crisis on the financial performance of the insurance companies.

yes / A time-dependent finite-state Markov chain that uses doubly stochastic transition matrices, is considered. Entropic quantities that describe the randomness of the probability vectors, and also the randomness of the discrete paths, are studied. Universal convex polytopes are introduced which contain all future probability vectors, and which are based on the Birkhoff–von Neumann expansion for doubly stochastic matrices. They are universal in the sense that they depend only on the present probability vector, and are independent of the doubly stochastic transition matrices that describe time evolution in the future. It is shown that as the discrete time increases these convex polytopes shrink, and the minimum entropy of the probability vectors in them increases. These ideas are applied to a sequence of non-selective measurements (with different projectors in each step) on a quantum system with -dimensional Hilbert space. The unitary time evolution in the intervals between the measurements, is taken into account. The non-selective measurements destroy stroboscopically the non-diagonal elements in the density matrix. This ‘hermaphrodite’ system is an interesting combination of a classical probabilistic system (immediately after the measurements) and a quantum system (in the intervals between the measurements). Various examples are discussed. In the ergodic example, the system follows asymptotically all discrete paths with the same probability. In the example of rapidly repeated non-selective measurements, we get the well known quantum Zeno effect with ‘frozen discrete paths’ (presented here as a biproduct of our general methodology based on Markov chains with doubly stochastic transition matrices).

The determinants that affect the financial performance of an insurance company are complicated due to the intangible nature of insurance products and the lack of transparency in the market. Consequently, the financial performance of insurance companies is important to various stakeholders such as policyholders, insurance intermediaries and policymakers. This study aims to investigate the determinants of financial performance of insurance companies based on their financial strength rating performance. The empirical data are drawn from A.M. Best Insurance Report Online: Non- US Database. The sample consists of 57 insurers in the United Kingdom over the period of 2006 to 2010. The analyses include eight firm-specific variables, which are leverage, profitability, liquidity, size, reinsurance, growth, type of business and organisational form. Rating transition matrices and regression models are employed in this study. Rating transition analysis demonstrates a significant degree of rating changes, as reflected in the rating fluctuations. Based on the empirical results, this study establishes that profitability, liquidity, size and organisational form are statistically significant determinants of financial performance of insurance companies in the United Kingdom. This study recommends an alternative to measure the size of an insurance company, which is based on the gross premium written. In addition, this study provides insights into the effects of the global financial crisis on the financial performance of the insurance companies. / Ministry of Education of Malaysia; Universiti Utara Malaysia

An important part when managing credit risk is to assess the probability of default of different counterparties. Increases and decreases in such probabil- ities are central components in the assessment, and this is where transition matrices become useful. These matrices are commonly used tools when as- sessing counterparty credit risk, and contain the probability of default, as well as the probability to migrate between different predefined rating classifica- tions. These rating classifications are used to reflect the risk taken towards different counterparties. Therefore, it is important for financial institutions to develop accurate transition matrix models to manage predicted changes in credit risk exposure. This is because counterparty creditworthiness and prob- ability of default indirectly affect expected loss and the capital requirement of held capital. This thesis will analyze how two specific models perform when used for generating transition matrices. These models will be tested to investigate their performance when predicting rating transitions, including probability of default. / En viktig del vid hanteringen av kreditrisk är att bedöma sannolikheten för fallissemang för olika motparter. Ökningar och minskningar i dessa sanno- likheter är centrala komponenter i bedömningen, och det är här migrations- matriser blir användbara. Dessa matriser är vanligt förekommande verktyg vid bedömning av kreditrisk mot olika motparter och innehåller sannolikheten för fallissemang samt sannolikheten att migrera mellan olika fördefinierade be- tygsklassificeringar. Dessa betygsklassificeringar används för att återspegla den risk som tas mot olika motparter. Det är därför viktigt för finansinstitut att utveckla träffsäkra migrationsmatris modeller för att hantera förväntade förändringar i kreditriskexponering. Detta beror på att kreditvärdigheten hos motparter samt sannolikheten för fallissemang indirekt påverkar expected loss och kapitalkrav. Detta examensarbete kommer att analysera hur två specifika modeller presterar när de används för att generera migrationsmatriser. Dessa mod- eller kommer att testas för att undersöka hur de presterar när de används för att förutsäga övergångar inom betygsklassificering, inklusive sannolikheten för fallissemang.

The aim of the thesis is to bring new insights into banks' internal credit risk estimates and their application in estimation of credit transition matrices, which are an important part of credit risk modelling with limited publicly available sources. The doctoral thesis consists of three essays that jointly analyse features of bank- sourced credit risk data and practicalities of transition matrices estimation. In the first essay, I empirically test two assumptions widely used for estimation of transition matrices: Markovian property and time homogeneity. The results indicate that internal credit risk estimates do not satisfy the two assumptions, showing evidence of both path-dependency and time heterogeneity even within a period of economic expansion. Contradicting previous findings based on data from credit rating agencies, banks tend to revert their past rating actions. The second essay analyses the extent to which transition matrices depend on the characteristics of the underlying overlapping bank-sourced credit risk datasets and the aggregation method. It outlines that the choice of aggregation approach has a substantial effect on credit risk model results. I also show that bank-sourced transition matrices are more dynamic than those produced by credit rating agencies and introduce industry-specific...

A proposta dessa dissertação é revisitar o tema para analisar o comportamento da mobilidade sócio-ocupacional brasileira no final do século XX e início do século XXI. O período de análise foi selecionado pela disponibilidade do suplemento de Mobilidade Sócio-ocupacional da Pesquisa Nacional por Amostra de Domicílio (PNAD) nos anos de 1996 e 2014. A partir da criação de uma medida de Status Sócio-econômico (SSE), que utiliza informações a respeito da ocupação, escolaridade e rendimento principal das pessoas, foi elaborada uma estrutura para as ocupações brasileiras, dividindo-as em seis estratos ocupacionais que variam do estrato alto ao estrato baixo-inferior. Para a análise dos movimentos dentro da estrutura obtida utilizamos matrizes de transição de status e medidas de mobilidade. A análise de trajetórias foi aplicada para identificar como o status sócio-ocupacional do pai afeta o status do filho em 2014. Os resultados obtidos mostram uma sociedade com elevada mobilidade sócio-ocupacional. No caso intergeracional, cerca de 67% dos indivíduos experimentou mobilidade nos dois períodos. A mobilidade intrageracional nos mostra que a grande maioria dos indivíduos de 2014, cerca de 75%, iniciou sua carreira em ocupações de estrato baixo. Na dinâmica da mobilidade brasileira dominam os movimentos de mobilidade circular. No caso intrageracional, a mobilidade estrutural aumentou, mas ainda não ultrapassa a mobilidade circular. A análise de trajetórias permitiu observar que a influência do status sócio-ocupacional do pai sobre o status do filho é maior por canais indiretos, como a educação do filho e o status da ocupação inicial. Utilizando a medida de status ocupacional foi possível abordar a inclusão de variáveis de background familiar do indivíduo na estimação de equações de rendimento e o seu papel na diminuição do viés nas estimativas da influência da educação na determinação da renda. A mobilidade social brasileira é um fenômeno forte na sociedade, porém a influência das características herdadas pelo indivíduo sobre as suas chances de mobilidade ainda é bastante alta, sendo necessário diminuí-la para que haja maior igualdade nas oportunidades de mobilidade. / The objective of this dissertation is to revisit the topic to analyze the behavior of the Brazilian socio-occupational mobility in the late 20th century and early 21st century. The analysis period was selected according to the availability of socio-occupational mobility supplements of the National Household Sample Survey (PNAD) in 1996 and 2014. A structure for the Brazilian occupations was elaborated from the measurement of socioeconomic status (SSE), which comprises information about occupation, educational attainments and main income. Such structure was divided into six occupational strata ranging from high to inferior-low. The movements within the structure were analyzed through status transition matrices and mobility measurements. Path analysis was applied to identify how the father\'s socio-occupational status affects the child\'s status in 2014. The results demonstrated a society with high socio-occupational mobility. Regarding the intergenerational aspect, approximately 67% of the individuals experienced mobility in both periods. The intragenerational mobility showed that most individuals in 2014, about 75%, started their careers in low-stratum occupations. Circular mobility movements predominate in the Brazilian mobility dynamics. The structural mobility increased in the intragenerational case; however, it did not surpass the circular mobility. The path analysis showed that the influence of the father\'s socio-occupational status on the child\'s one is higher through indirect channels, such as the child\'s education and the initial occupation status. The measurement of the occupational status allowed the inclusion of family background variables in the earnings functions to analyze their role in the decrease of bias regarding the influence of education on income determination. The Brazilian social mobility is a strong phenomenon in the society; however, the influence of one\'s inherited characteristics on the mobility chances is still considerably high. Thus, the influence of such characteristics needs to be minimized to allow more equality in mobility opportunities.

A proposta dessa dissertação é revisitar o tema para analisar o comportamento da mobilidade sócio-ocupacional brasileira no final do século XX e início do século XXI. O período de análise foi selecionado pela disponibilidade do suplemento de Mobilidade Sócio-ocupacional da Pesquisa Nacional por Amostra de Domicílio (PNAD) nos anos de 1996 e 2014. A partir da criação de uma medida de Status Sócio-econômico (SSE), que utiliza informações a respeito da ocupação, escolaridade e rendimento principal das pessoas, foi elaborada uma estrutura para as ocupações brasileiras, dividindo-as em seis estratos ocupacionais que variam do estrato alto ao estrato baixo-inferior. Para a análise dos movimentos dentro da estrutura obtida utilizamos matrizes de transição de status e medidas de mobilidade. A análise de trajetórias foi aplicada para identificar como o status sócio-ocupacional do pai afeta o status do filho em 2014. Os resultados obtidos mostram uma sociedade com elevada mobilidade sócio-ocupacional. No caso intergeracional, cerca de 67% dos indivíduos experimentou mobilidade nos dois períodos. A mobilidade intrageracional nos mostra que a grande maioria dos indivíduos de 2014, cerca de 75%, iniciou sua carreira em ocupações de estrato baixo. Na dinâmica da mobilidade brasileira dominam os movimentos de mobilidade circular. No caso intrageracional, a mobilidade estrutural aumentou, mas ainda não ultrapassa a mobilidade circular. A análise de trajetórias permitiu observar que a influência do status sócio-ocupacional do pai sobre o status do filho é maior por canais indiretos, como a educação do filho e o status da ocupação inicial. Utilizando a medida de status ocupacional foi possível abordar a inclusão de variáveis de background familiar do indivíduo na estimação de equações de rendimento e o seu papel na diminuição do viés nas estimativas da influência da educação na determinação da renda. A mobilidade social brasileira é um fenômeno forte na sociedade, porém a influência das características herdadas pelo indivíduo sobre as suas chances de mobilidade ainda é bastante alta, sendo necessário diminuí-la para que haja maior igualdade nas oportunidades de mobilidade. / The objective of this dissertation is to revisit the topic to analyze the behavior of the Brazilian socio-occupational mobility in the late 20th century and early 21st century. The analysis period was selected according to the availability of socio-occupational mobility supplements of the National Household Sample Survey (PNAD) in 1996 and 2014. A structure for the Brazilian occupations was elaborated from the measurement of socioeconomic status (SSE), which comprises information about occupation, educational attainments and main income. Such structure was divided into six occupational strata ranging from high to inferior-low. The movements within the structure were analyzed through status transition matrices and mobility measurements. Path analysis was applied to identify how the father\'s socio-occupational status affects the child\'s status in 2014. The results demonstrated a society with high socio-occupational mobility. Regarding the intergenerational aspect, approximately 67% of the individuals experienced mobility in both periods. The intragenerational mobility showed that most individuals in 2014, about 75%, started their careers in low-stratum occupations. Circular mobility movements predominate in the Brazilian mobility dynamics. The structural mobility increased in the intragenerational case; however, it did not surpass the circular mobility. The path analysis showed that the influence of the father\'s socio-occupational status on the child\'s one is higher through indirect channels, such as the child\'s education and the initial occupation status. The measurement of the occupational status allowed the inclusion of family background variables in the earnings functions to analyze their role in the decrease of bias regarding the influence of education on income determination. The Brazilian social mobility is a strong phenomenon in the society; however, the influence of one\'s inherited characteristics on the mobility chances is still considerably high. Thus, the influence of such characteristics needs to be minimized to allow more equality in mobility opportunities.

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The rock outcrop plants are neglected group of plants, even though they include endangered or endemic species. Despite this fact, there is only a few of studies focusing at this topic. The aim of this thesis is to focus on this group of plants in terms of its population dynamics. Aurinia saxatilis ssp. saxatilis was chosen as a model species. It is a species of the Czech thermophyticum. Three populations were chosen and studied over three years. The population dynamics was compared between the populations by integral projection modelling (IPM) and matrix population modelling (MPM). The results of these two analytical approaches were compared to one another, too. The population growth rate (λ) predicts that one of the populations is stable, whereas the other two populations are declining. The highest elasticity is mostly for the seeds survival in the seed bank. The population growth rate does not differ distinctly between the two statistical approaches, IPM and MPM. In all cases the IPM λ is lower than the MPM λ. Within the IPM analysis, the influence of the substrate type was also studied. The analyses, however, did not indicate any major differences between the substrates. For maintaining the populations, it is necessary to protect the new seeds and seedling recruitment and to create the new space...