Under the current rapid climate change, trees are of critical interest because of diverse ecosystem services that they provide. Although increasing landscape connectivity is though to be crucial in order to maximize their migration capabilities, there are few studies indicating where exactly such increases might best take place. To understand the impact of fragmentation on species climate-change induced migrations and source populations, I calculated migration pathways and source populations under six climate change scenarios in southern Ontario where >70% of forest has been lost through human-use. The results showed that although forest fragmentation increased species required migration rates, the most important migration corridors and source populations were quite similar across all migration models and were concentrated in exiting forest corridors and extensively forested areas, including northeast of Lake Ontario, the Niagara Escarpment, and the Oak Ridges Moraine.

Under the current rapid climate change, trees are of critical interest because of diverse ecosystem services that they provide. Although increasing landscape connectivity is though to be crucial in order to maximize their migration capabilities, there are few studies indicating where exactly such increases might best take place. To understand the impact of fragmentation on species climate-change induced migrations and source populations, I calculated migration pathways and source populations under six climate change scenarios in southern Ontario where >70% of forest has been lost through human-use. The results showed that although forest fragmentation increased species required migration rates, the most important migration corridors and source populations were quite similar across all migration models and were concentrated in exiting forest corridors and extensively forested areas, including northeast of Lake Ontario, the Niagara Escarpment, and the Oak Ridges Moraine.

<p>The Holocene spread of <i>Picea abies</i> in Scandinavia provides an excellent opportunity for detailed study of the dynamics of tree spread and population expansion. Early- and mid-Holocene macrofossil evidence for the presence of <i>Picea abies</i> in Scandinavia has questioned traditional interpretations of the timing and direction of its spread. This study aims to determine the pattern of the spread of <i>Picea abies</i> in Scandinavia from pollen and other data, to evaluate the significance of possible early outpost populations and to deduce possible factors that influenced the spread and population expansion of <i>Picea abies</i> in Scandinavia. </p><p>Palaeoecological investigations were carried out on the sediments of four small lakes in central Sweden to gain detailed insight into the dynamics of the spread. Holocene pollen diagrams with independent dating control were collected from Fennoscandia and adjacent areas to compare the timing of selected features of the <i>Picea abies</i> pollen curve. Computer models were used to test possible scenarios for the spread and <i>Picea abies</i> population expansion. </p><p><i>Picea abies</i> entered the Scandinavian peninsula from the east at different times and by different pathways. Early-Holocene outposts can be discerned in pollen records from northwest Russia, eastern and northeastern Finland for the time before 9000 cal. BP. Pollen records from Sweden and Norway indicate small <i>Picea abies</i> populations after 8000 cal. BP. The mid to late-Holocene spread, which superficially resembles a front-like pattern, may in fact represent a wave of expanding populations. Disturbance through fire and human activity did not significantly influence the pattern of the spread. Changing climate parameters, slow adaptation and gene flow through seeds and pollen have to be considered as possible explanations for the late spread of the tree. Population dynamics and propagule pressure are likely to be important factors that shaped the spread of <i>Picea abies</i>.</p>

The Holocene spread of Picea abies in Scandinavia provides an excellent opportunity for detailed study of the dynamics of tree spread and population expansion. Early- and mid-Holocene macrofossil evidence for the presence of Picea abies in Scandinavia has questioned traditional interpretations of the timing and direction of its spread. This study aims to determine the pattern of the spread of Picea abies in Scandinavia from pollen and other data, to evaluate the significance of possible early outpost populations and to deduce possible factors that influenced the spread and population expansion of Picea abies in Scandinavia. Palaeoecological investigations were carried out on the sediments of four small lakes in central Sweden to gain detailed insight into the dynamics of the spread. Holocene pollen diagrams with independent dating control were collected from Fennoscandia and adjacent areas to compare the timing of selected features of the Picea abies pollen curve. Computer models were used to test possible scenarios for the spread and Picea abies population expansion. Picea abies entered the Scandinavian peninsula from the east at different times and by different pathways. Early-Holocene outposts can be discerned in pollen records from northwest Russia, eastern and northeastern Finland for the time before 9000 cal. BP. Pollen records from Sweden and Norway indicate small Picea abies populations after 8000 cal. BP. The mid to late-Holocene spread, which superficially resembles a front-like pattern, may in fact represent a wave of expanding populations. Disturbance through fire and human activity did not significantly influence the pattern of the spread. Changing climate parameters, slow adaptation and gene flow through seeds and pollen have to be considered as possible explanations for the late spread of the tree. Population dynamics and propagule pressure are likely to be important factors that shaped the spread of Picea abies.