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Characterizing African Elephant (<i>Loxodonta Africana</i>) Population Dynamics and Distribution in BotswanaBarungwi, Amo Obusitswe 29 July 2021 (has links)
The African elephant (Loxodonta africana) is an iconic species that is globally threatened. Of the total continental population, 37% is found in Botswana, the highest number and density of elephants in Africa. Elephant management in this country remains challenging and complex as the population estimates and trends calculated by government and independent researchers (from aerial survey data) differ and continue to be highly debated, both locally and internationally. To add more clarity and potentially resolve this ongoing debate, this study evaluates aerial survey data collected by the Botswana government from 1990 to 2012 and compares it with population demographic field data collected in 2019-2020 to assess Botswana's elephant population trend in a multimodal fashion.
I used two different methods to evaluate aerial survey count data, the log-linear regression model and the Exponential Growth Space State (EGSS) model. In addition, I used the population demographic field data to estimate the growth rate. From the results, the average annual growth rate from the linear regression and the EGSS were both 6.17%. The growth rate estimated from the population demographics field data was estimated to be 5.17%. The age structure was comprised of the six age classes with a general increase from one age structure to the next as expected with a non significant decline in age class 3 (5-10 years) likely associated with the difficulty in differentiating this age class from the bounding age classes. There were no significant differences in the sex ratio (0.49Males:0.51Females). The age structure remained the same from 2019 to 2020, suggesting no evidence that overharvesting impacted the elephant population age structure in northern Botswana. Range expansion has also been identified with the movement of the elephant population into the southern part of the country by 2012.
Analysis of count and demographic data as well as the identification of range expansion suggest that the elephant population is growing at rate close to the maximum growth rate previously identified for this species. Data do not support assertions that the population is negatively impacted through illegal offtake. Independent studies that identify Botswana's elephant population as declining have relied on comparisons that are made between data sets obtained from divergent aerial survey methodology and survey area, elements that confound such conclusions. Estimating population trends and the growth rate of an open population is complex, never-the-less, with population growth potientially derived from both birth and/or external immigation. However, demographic data collected in during this study indicate that the fucundity rate is substantial and likely a dominating driver of the positive population growth trend. Multiple measures of population growth (aerial survey and demographic assessments) also provide the opportunity for cross-validation of derived population trends. Therefore, this study recommends that the Botswana government incorporate population demographic data (i.e., age classes) into their existing monitoring protocols. Longitudinal data collection provides a critical mechanism for understanding population trends over changing environmental dynamics and should be continued. Efforts to modify or change these approaches must employ mechanisms that will account for and standardize for differences in methodology. / Master of Science / Botswana, a semi-arid country with limited surface water sources, has the highest number of African elephants (Loxodonta africana) on the African continent. This iconic species is globally threatened, and its conservation status is highly debated, making its management complex for Botswana. The population trends for the Botswana population, from the aerial surveys, are highly debated locally and internationally. Therefore, this study re-evaluated the aerial survey data from the Botswana government (1990-2012) and estimated the population growth rate, then compared the growth rate from the aerial survey trends analysis to the growth rate from the elephant population demographics data (collected in 2019 and 2020). The results from the aerial survey data from 2012 estimated a total population of 207,545 (CI = 185,774 - 229,316) with an annual average population growth rate of 6.17%, similar to the growth rate 5% estimated from population demographic field data. Range expansion of the elephant population has also been detected since 2009, with elephants now found in previously unoccupied regions of the Central Kalahari Game Reserve and associated regions in Southern Botswana. These results suggest the elephant population in Botswana is growing at a rate close to the maximum growth rate identified for this species. There is no evidence for a declining or stable population trend or indicators suggesting harvesting pressures (poaching) are suppressing elephant numbers. The study shows the utility of incorporating various population sampling methodologies into species management in Botswana.
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The identification of batting trends through a comparative analysis in Twenty20 cricket between Varsity Cup winning teams and the University of the Western Cape Cricket Club from its origin in 2015 – 2017Ramoo, Romano January 2020 (has links)
Magister Artium (Sport, Recreation and Exercise Science) - MA(SRES) / Over the years cricket has developed from a traditional and conservative game into an extremely lucrative sport, which requires a great deal of professionalism in all surrounding areas. In recent years cricket has evolved and resulted in the emergence of Twenty20 cricket. The aim of this study focused on identifying batting trends through a comparative analysis between Varisty Cup winning teams and the University of the Western Cape Cricket Club between the age group of 18 – 25. The study used a quantitative research approach with a content analysis methodology research design. Nine key batting variables were analysed in three phases of a cricket match (Powerplay, Middle overs and Death overs) between winning teams and the University of the Western Cape Cricket Club to establish the magnitude of differences (Cohen’s effect size). The top indicators for success in the tournament were averaging a higher number of boundary fours, accumulating a higher number of single runs throughout the match, averaging a high number of sixes during the Middle and Death Overs of a batting innings and accumulating two’s throughout all three phases of a match. The overall summary of this study’s results navigates to a batting strategy that should focus on batting trends by maintaining a higher batting run rate, target to scoring more boundary fours and sixes, good running between the wickets to accumulate two’s, select batsmen with a low dismissal rate and select batsmen with a high single scoring rate [equates to better strike rotation].
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Development and Validation of an Early-Stage Project Evaluation ToolTumushime - Mugisha, Arthur Godfrey January 2020 (has links)
This master‘s thesis is a journey of generating a prototype evaluation tool for Sparbanken Rekarne, the aim was to contribute to the emerging field as an innovation and design and specifically pre-project management. The major stakeholder was Sparbanken Rekarne AB, they needed an innovation model and the research question formulated was: What are the perspectives and the process of an early stage tool for evaluating innovation project ideas? ‘The approach was gathering theoretical knowledge in the development of the evaluation tool using a systematic literature review. The theoretical knowledge building was done by carrying out a systematic literature review to inspect different credible evaluation tool to use. Focusing specifically on pre-project evaluation tools, a knowledge gap (Gap spotting) was soon discovered after reviewing some pre-project evaluation tools. Firstly needed to see what pre-project evaluation tools are available. One stood out with stages and that ended being the main inspiration for the early-stage evaluation tool. Still basing the tool on theoretical knowledge, the solution was to hybridizing existing pre-project evaluation tools and tools already developed. Merging interactive research with Agile principals was how the information was gathered and how the project was planned. The data gathered was dissected and used in developing the evaluation tool. Purpose of the pre-project evaluation tool is to bring clarity for Sparbanken Rekarne in making decisions about choosing pre-projects to invest in. This master‘s thesis gives a detailed description of how to implement the Early-stage evaluation tool (Chapter 4) from a Sparbanken Rekarne developer‘s perspective. Results, a contribution to innovation and design, specifically pre-project management. The early-stage evaluation tool can maturate idea‘s into concept pre-project that are measured. Involvement with all stakeholder makes sure the pre-projects entering the project planning phase has a market.
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