While conventional drought has been studied for many years, new research focuses on different aspects and types of drought. Flash Drought is a relatively new area of research in drought literature, dating back to the last ten to twenty years in the United States. Flash drought in the Caribbean has received minimal attention from researchers, but it has been studied in the United States primarily because of the 2012 flash drought event over the Great Plains. This study focuses on flash drought events in Puerto Rico and the Caribbean. Because the rapid onset and intensity of flash drought can potentially cause more devastation without established prediction methods, this research seeks to understand the synoptic scale atmospheric drivers of flash drought events. Recent occurrences of a flash drought event in this region include the 2015 event in Puerto Rico, which resulted in water rationing and shortages for residents of the island (Mote et al., 2017). The primary goal of this study is to understand how flash drought initiates and propagates for Puerto Rico and the Caribbean using two definitions of flash drought. One definition is based on soil moisture deficit, and the second definition is based on the Evaporative Demand Drought Index (EDDI), an experimental drought monitoring tool. Results suggest that an anomalous convection and positive moisture event followed by negative moisture anomalies and persistent subsidence contribute to flash drought event initiation and propagation. Additionally, large scale flash drought events seem to be initiating more frequently, suggesting that the island is becoming more susceptible to the devastations of flash drought. / Master of Science / Drought in the United States is a well-known occurrence typically caused by high temperatures and low precipitation rates. States in the Western US like California, Arizona, Nevada, and more have been negatively impacted by persistent drought. These negative impacts include water rationing laws, struggling agricultural yield, and many days without precipitation. In recent years, it has been discovered that drought has a counterpart known as flash drought. Flash drought is to flash flooding as drought is to a floodplain. Floodplains are areas prone to persistent flooding, but flash flooding occurs in a matter of minutes or hours due to extremely intense precipitation and a lack of drainage for the water to leave. Flash drought is very similar to flash flooding due to the rapid onset and intensification. Flash drought has been studied for the United States in some cases, but there is very little known about flash drought in Puerto Rico and the Caribbean. This study seeks to understand how flash drought initiates and intensifies in Puerto Rico. Results of this study suggest that flash drought can initiate immediately after a large precipitation event that is followed by days without precipitation. Because of the amount of moisture after the precipitation, the atmosphere wants to evaporate that moisture back out. As more moisture is evaporated, the land becomes drier and drier, especially when there is no follow up precipitation. The lack of follow up precipitation is also explained in this study. It was found that following the big precipitation event, the atmosphere does not create more precipitation because of a persistent state of downward vertical motion. Upward vertical motion is needed for precipitation to occur, so the combination of downward vertical motion and dry air results in a flash drought event in Puerto Rico.

Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited. / The Tropical Cyclone Vorticity Tracking Program is used to identify vortices in the western North Pacific from the Navy Operational Global Atmospheric Prediction System (NOGAPS) analyses and forecasts during May- October 2002 and 2003. Based on the NOGAPS analyses, several parameters are different between the 23vortices that developed into storms during 2002 according to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) and the231 vortices that did not develop. After eliminating 127 vortices that did not persist at least 24 h, this left 104 nondevelopingcases. For the developing circulations, the average 850-mb relative vorticity value at the first JTWCwarningtime was 5.0 x 10-5 s-1, with an easterly deep layer wind shear of -1.8 m s-1. The average 850-mb relativevorticity maximum for the non-developing cases was 3.3 x 10-5 s-1, with a westerly vertical shear of 4.1 m s-1. TheNOGAPS model tends to over-forecast relative vorticity prior to formation time for both developers and nondevelopers.Especially for the 72-h and 96-h forecasts, the over-forecasting tendency leads to non-developingvortices meeting the threshold vorticity value of the developing vortices. The tendency for NOGAPS to forecastthe non-developing deep layer wind shear to become increasingly easterly with time is considered to be a majorfactor in these over-forecasts of formation. Some adjustments in the cumulus parameterization heating andmoistening plus convective momentum transport may improve these forecasts of tropical cyclone formation. / Captain, United States Air Force

Thesis (Ph. D.)--University of Hawaii at Manoa, 2005. / Includes bibliographical references (leaves 135-148).

No description available.

Thesis (Ph. D.)--University of Wisconsin--Madison, 1974. / Typescript. Vita. eContent provider-neutral record in process. Description based on print version record. Includes bibliographical references.

Thesis (M.S. in Meteorology)--Naval Postgraduate School, March 2006. / Thesis Advisor(s): Patrick A. Harr. "March 2006." Includes bibliographical references (p. 89). Also available online.

Thesis. 1977. M.S.--Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Dept. of Meteorology. / Microfiche copy available in Archives and Science. / Bibliography : leaves 88-89. / M.S.

No description available.

Upper-tropospheric (200 hPa) velocity potential is useful in identifying areas of rising or sinking atmospheric motions on varying temporal scales (e.g., weekly, seasonal, interannual) especially in the global tropics. These areas are associated with enhancement (rising motion) or suppression (sinking motion) of tropical convection and subsequent weather phenomena dependent on these processes (e.g., tropical cyclones). This study employed three commonly used global weather reanalysis datasets (NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis 1, JMA JRA-55, ECMWF ERA5) to calculate and compare upper-tropospheric velocity potential fields on varying temporal scales and quantify any differences that existed between them from 1958 to 2020 over four key regions of variability (Equatorial Africa, Amazon Basin, Equatorial Central Pacific, and Equatorial Indonesia). To supplement this analysis, the highly correlated variables to velocity potential of outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) and daily precipitation rate were used and directly compared with independent OLR and precipitation datasets to determine the reanalysis' level of agreement with the independent data. The ECMWF ERA5 held the highest agreement to these data over all regions examined and was reasoned to have the highest confidence in capturing the variability of upper-tropospheric velocity potential fields for the study period. Confidence was decreased in the usefulness of the NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis 1 as it consistently performed poorly over much of the study domain. The results of this study also emphasized the usefulness in ensemble-based approaches to assessing climate variability and understanding potential biases and uncertainties that are inherent in the data sources. / Master of Science / Historical weather data across the globe is analyzed using global weather reanalysis datasets which provide the most complete picture of how the atmosphere has evolved over the course of the last several decades. This data is a vital component in today's research investigating climate change and variability over time. This study examined how the history of upper-tropospheric velocity potential was captured in three commonly used global weather reanalysis datasets (NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis 1, JMA JRA-55, ECMWF ERA5) from 1958 to 2020 over four key regions of variability (Equatorial Africa, Amazon Basin, Equatorial Central Pacific, and Equatorial Indonesia). The variable of velocity potential is useful in identifying areas of rising or sinking atmospheric motions on varying time scales (e.g., weekly, seasonal, interannual) especially in the global tropics. These areas are associated with enhancement (rising motion) or suppression (sinking motion) of tropical convection (i.e., thunderstorms) and subsequent weather phenomena dependent on these processes (e.g., tropical cyclones). The analysis conducted found that the newest of the reanalysis datasets, the ECMWF ERA5, held the highest agreement to independent weather observations over all regions examined was reasoned to have the highest confidence in capturing the variability of upper-tropospheric velocity potential fields for the study period. Confidence was decreased in the usefulness of the NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis 1, the oldest of the reanalysis datasets, as it consistently performed poorly over much of the study domain. The results of this study also emphasized the usefulness in ensemble-based approaches to assessing climate variability and understanding potential biases and uncertainties that can be found in the data sources.

Approved for public release, distribution is unlimited / Consensus methods require that the techniques have no bias and have skill. The accuracy of six statistical and dynamical model tropical cyclone intensity guidance techniques was examined for western North Pacific tropical cyclones during the 2003 and 2004 seasons using the climatology and persistence technique called ST5D as a measure of skill. A framework of three phases: (i) initial intensification; (ii) maximum intensity with possible decay/reintensification cycles; and (iii) decay was used to examine the skill. During both the formation and intensification stages, only about 60% of the 24-36 h forecasts were within +/- 10 kt, and the predominant tendency was to under-forecast the intensity. None of the guidance techniques predicted rapid intensification well. All of the techniques tended to under-forecast maximum intensity and miss decay/reintensification cycles. A few of the techniques provided useful guidance on the magnitude of the decay, although the timing of the decay was often missed. Whereas about 60-70% of the 12-h to 72-h forecasts by the various techniques during the decay phase were within +/- 10 kt, the strong bias was to not decay the cyclone rapidly enough. In general the techniques predict too narrow a range of intensity changes for both intensification and decay. / Captain, United States Air Force