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Reconstructing 20th century SST variability in the southwest pacific: A replication study using multiple coral Sr/Ca records from New CaledoniaDeLong, Kristine L 01 June 2006 (has links)
Coral-based climate reconstructions typically have not used multiple cores from a region to capture and replicate a climate signal largely because of concerns focused on coral conservation, analytical expense, and time constraints. Coral Sr/Ca reproducibility through the 20th century was investigated using three intra-colony and three inter-colony coral records, from the reefs offshore of Amédée Island, New Caledonia. Different sampling resolutions were examined in coral Sr/Ca (fortnightly and monthly) and delta 18O (fortnightly, monthly, and seasonally) as well as similar scale subsampling of the daily in situ SST record. The mean coral Sr/Ca, delta 18O, and daily SST values do not change as a function of sampling resolution. The coral Sr/Ca signal is highly reproducible; the average absolute offset between coeval Sr/Ca determinations between any two coral Sr/Ca time series is 0.036 mmol/mol (approximately 0.65°C), which is less than twice the analytical precision of the coral Sr/Ca measurements.
The stack average of the monthly coral Sr/Ca variations and monthly anomalies are significantly correlated with monthly in situ SST (r equals -0.95, -0.56, respectively) for the period 1967 to 1992 and monthly 1-degree gridded SST data product (r equals -0.95, -0.53, respectively) for the period 1900 to 1999. The coral Sr/Ca-SST reconstruction exhibits decadal-scale fluctuations that exceed those observed in the gridded SST time series, which may reflect true differences between the SST at a shallow reef site and those averaged over a 1-degree grid box or they may reflect inadequacies in the methodology used to create the gridded SST product when few observations are available. A warming trend of approximately 0.6°C is observed in the coral Sr/Ca-SST record. Monthly coral Sr/Ca records and seasonally resolved coral delta 18O record from this site share variance in the latter half of the 20th century, but not in the early 20th century, suggestive of a change in seawater delta 18O.
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Análise das chuvas diárias na região de São Carlos/SP por meio de índices climáticos e das tendências pluviométricas / Analysis of daily rainfall in São Carlos/SP using climatic indexes and trend testSanches, Rafael Grecco 28 June 2019 (has links)
A heterogeneidade dos elementos que compreendem a climatologia tropical se evidencia no comportamento das chuvas nessa região macroclimática. Para tanto, compreender seu comportamento temporal e espacial assume grande relevância, em função do impacto dessas na dinâmica urbana e rural, bem como para seu planejamento estratégico. Verificar seu curso interanual em episódios diários é grande desafio, nesse sentido. Com isso, o estudo objetivou analisar as chuvas diárias na região de São Carlos/SP, a fim de compreender sua evolução temporal e espacial, além de avaliar possíveis tendências para essa, que se insere na dinâmica tropical (sazonalmente chuvoso/estiagem). Foram analisados 39 anos de dados diários de chuvas, em 7 postos pluviométricos, e que estiveram com, ao menos, 95% dos dados consistentes. Utilizou-se de índices climáticos (script RClimdex) e do Laplace trend factor para analisar os dados temporais históricos e de tendência. Observou-se que os valores dos índices flutuam entre as estações, mas que esses estão associados aos fenômenos da ZCAS (Zona de Convergência do Atlântico Sul) e dos SFs (Sistemas Frontais), que regem o clima no sudeste da América do Sul. Além disso, notou-se que o sul da área estudada apresenta maior concentração pluviométrica, em função dos aspectos geomorfológicos (e até de ocupação), bem como notou-se o aumento de episódios extremos de chuvas diárias. As chuvas diárias, portanto, tendem a concentração, uma vez que os volumes anuais diminuem ou aumentam (ciclicamente), mas notam-se precipitações pluviométricas mais intensas (mm) em dias chuvosos, além do aumento da tendência dos dias com chuvas extremas. Futuros estudos que ampliem a área de estudo e possíveis correlações poder-se-ão reafirmar tais resultados, conforme verificado em estudos prévios. / Rainfall shows the heterogeneity of tropical climatology. Temporal and spatial behavior is highly relevant to verify the impact on urban and rural dynamics and strategic planning. The inter-annual course in daily episodes is the biggest challenge in that regard. The objective of this study was to analyze daily rainfall in the São Carlos/SP region, understand its temporal and spatial evolution, as well as to evaluate possible trends for this, which are part of tropical (seasonally rainy/dry) dynamics. A total of 39 years of daily rainfall data were analyzed in 7 pluviometric stations, with at least 95% of the data consistent using Climatic indexes (RClimdex script), and the Laplace trend factor to analyze temporal and trend data. It was observed that the values of the indexes fluctuate between the stations. These are associated with the phenomena of the South Atlantic Convergence Zone (SACZ) and SFs (Frontal Systems), which regulates the climate in the south-east of South America. Also, the south of the studied area presents a higher rainfall concentration, due to the geomorphological (and even occupation) aspects, as well as the increase of extreme episodes of daily rains. Therefore, daily rains tend to concentrate, since annual volumes decrease or increase (cyclically), but the rainfall (mm) is more intense on rainy days, in addition to the increase in the tendency of the days with extreme rains. Future studies that broaden the area of study and possible correlations may reaffirm such results, as verified in previous studies.
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