A new Tropical Cyclone (TC) surface wind speed probability product from the National Hurricane Center (NHC) takes into account uncertainty in track, maximum wind speed, and wind radii. A Monte Carlo (MC) model is used that draws from probability distributions based on historic track errors. In this thesis, distributions of forecast track errors conditioned on forecast confidence are examined to determine if significant differences exist in distribution characteristics. Two predictors are used to define forecast confidence: the Goerss Predicted Consensus Error (GPCE) and the Global Forecast System (GFS) ensemble spread. The distributions of total-, along-, and crosstrack errors from NHC official forecasts are defined for low, average, and high forecast confidence. Also, distributions of the GFS ensemble mean total-track errors are defined based on similar confidence levels. Standard hypothesis testing methods are used to examine distribution characteristics. Using the GPCE values, significant differences in nearly all track error distributions existed for each level of forecast confidence. The GFS ensemble spread did not provide a basis for statistically different distributions. These results suggest that the NHC probability model would likely be improved if the MC model would draw from distributions of track errors based on the GPCE measures of forecast confidence / US Air Force (USAF) author.

archives@tulane.edu / 1 / Peter Tellez

Thermodynamical and dynamical aspects of tropical cloud clusters are studied using data from the GARP Atlantic Tropical Experiment (GATE). The data set used in this study is a three-dimensional gridded set of upper-air analyses constructed by Ooyama and Chu (Hurricane Research Division, AOML/NOAA and SSEC-University of Wisconsin) for wind data and Esbensen (Oregon State University) for thermodynamic data. The energy and momentum budgets are estimated on the scale of large cloud clusters. A strong upper-tropospheric heat source and middle-tropospheric drying are characteristic features of the mature stage of the observed cloud clusters. The heat source, moisture sink and the virtual heat flux for cloud clusters are larger than the corresponding quantities from GATE easterly-wave composites. The surface precipitation estimates produced from the vertically integrated moisture budget are consistent with direct observations. From the momentum budget study, the following conclusions are drawn concerning the cumulus momentum effects. In the growing stage, the mesoscale and cumulus scale effect tends to: 1) provide a vertically integrated net sink for westerly momentum around the cluster center; 2) induce a convergent circulation in the lower layer. In the mature stage, the effects are to: 1) induce a divergent circulation in the upper layer and maintain a vorticity couplet pattern; 2) maintain a weak convergent circulation in the lower layer; and 3) cause a relatively weak easterly acceleration in the upper layer at the center. A hypothesis is postulated to illustrate the convective dynamical effects. A simple barotropic non-divergent model was constructed to investigate the large-scale response to the hypothesized cumulus momentum forcing similar to that found in the GATE cloud-cluster momentum budget. The numerical results show that the cumulus momentum forcing is a plausible kinetic energy source for the mesoscale wavenumber spectrum. The sporadic nature of the convective mass flux does not have a significant effect on the large-scale dynamical response for physically realistic parameters in a barotropic non-divergent dynamical system. / Graduation date: 1987

Thesis (Ph. D.)--Joint Program in Oceanography (Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Dept. of Earth, Atmospheric, and Planetary Sciences; and the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution), 2005. / Includes bibliographical references (p. 131-149).

Simple algebraic relationships and yield equations that require the minimum of data are developed so as to enable quick and reliable assessments of relative rate of harvesting tropical freshwater fish populations. The age of a fish at the inflexion point is inversely related to the growth rate (K) and directly related to the natural logarithm of the weight length exponent (b). Algebraic relationships between the exponent of anabolism (m) and the weight length exponent are developed. Equations for estimating total mortality from age and length distributions in catch samples are given. Total mortality for both continuous and discrete recruitment are considered. The probability density function and the discrete probability function for a negative exponential are given. The effect of a number of variables on trawl catches is studied and some multiple regression equations which might be used to assess the relative degree of exploitation are presented. The parameters which have been recognized as vital to yield prediction are: the growth rate (K), the weight length exponent (b), the maximum length to which a fish grows (L∞) and the natural and total mortality rates. It is shown that one can replace age with a length expression in yield models and still have reliable yield predictions. It is also shown that a model with a few very relevant parameters, has almost the same predictive power as a model requiring more parameters. / Science, Faculty of / Zoology, Department of / Graduate

Thesis. 1976. Sc.D.--Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Dept. of Meteorology. / Microfiche copy available in Archives and Lindgren. / Vita. / Bibliography: leaves 175-177. / Sc.D.

In tropical areas, the high rainfall induces severe-and pervasive weathering, producing a thick soil cover. The lithologies underneath may b~ recognised using geochemical mapping, which is based on certain elements that have the ability to differentiate between various lithologic units. Elements that are independent of the weathering process are normally selected for this purpose. The chemistry of mobility of base metals is an important factor to take into account when evaluating the mobility and distribution of these elements in a soil profile. Factors such as pH, Eh, organic material, clay minerals, Fe and Mn oxides are normally key aspects to be considered. When iron-rich rocks undergo deep weathering, lateritic profiles are developed. These are widespread in a belt bordering the equatorial zone, including the Brazilian shield, West and East Africa, parts of India and Northern Australia. In these profiles, the high rainfall promotes intense leaching of the different horizons. Where the pre-existing profiles are mostly preserved, the base metals are distributed throughout the profile: in the upper ferruginous horizon, goethite and hematite can adsorb large amounts of Mo, resulting in large dispersion halo. Other base metals such as Cu and Zn are less resistant in these freely-drained profiles and, therefore, they may be partly leached from the profile. In the lower horizons, Cu, ,zn, Ni and Co are retained, hosted in kaolinite and smectite, and thus, a high geochemical contrast will be identified in this horizon at the expense of a decline in the size of the dispersion haloes. The pre-existing profiles can be truncated, with a thin stone line developing at the contact between the lateritic profile and the recent soil. The conditions in these environments favour the retention of most of the pathfinder and target elements in all soil horizons, with the B horizon showing the highest contrast. If the primary rock is rich in AI, a bauxitic profile will be developed. The world distribution of bauxites closely resembles that of laterites. The behaviour of Co and Ni is very similar to that of iron during the bauxitization. Furthermore, the factors that induce residual enrichment of Al with removal of Fe in the soil profile will cause significant depletion of Co and Ni in these profiles. These metals are then concentrated at the base of the profile because of precipitation from downward percolating solutions. Many karst bauxite deposits in Southern Europe are enriched with Ni and Co in the basal horizon. Such horizon is mined as nickel ore in the bauxites of the Lokris region in Greece. Copper and molybdenum are strongly enriched.in bauxitic profiles. Concentration ratios are 8 and 3.2 for Cu and Mo respectively. Molybdenum is closely related to goethite and hematite, and therefore, the high concentration of Mo in a bauxitic profile will be consistent with the horizon where iron is concentrated. Copper concentrates at the base of the iron rich-horizon but also appears enriched in the saprolite together with Co. When sulphide bodies occur, in this environment, deep and penetrative weathering has resulted in considerable near-surface mobilization of iron and silica. The supergene alteration commonly obscures the identity of the primary sulphides at the surface. In this case, geochemical assessment of the resulting gossan has proved to be crucial in mineral exploration. A search in the secondary mineral assemblage, volatile and precious metals may lead to the information on the composition of the primary sulphide assemblage. The conclusion that will be reached is that if the geochemical properties (mobility, affinities with Fe or Mn oxides and/or clay minerals) of each of the base metals are understood, an appropriate sampling (optimum size-depth combination) will then be done. In such cases, a subdued, weak, but significant, geochemical response will be identified in the surface horizon.

Thesis (M.S.)--Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Dept. of Meteorology, 1980. / Microfiche copy available in Archives and Science. / Bibliography: leaves 44-46. / by Till E. Stoeckenius. / M.S.

In this dissertation, I explore the diversity of endophytic fungi associated with above-ground tissues of neotropical ferns, assess factors shaping their community structure in three forests, and explore the contributions of endophytes and related strains to our understanding of the diversity and ecology of a representative genus of Ascomycota. In Appendix A, I report a survey of endophytic fungi from seven species of ferns at La Selva, Costa Rica. Using both species-level and phylogenetic analyses, I compare culturable endophytes as a function of fern taxonomy, frond tissues (blades vs. stalks), habits (terrestrial vs. epiphytic), and vegetation types (arboretum vs. primary and secondary forest) during two consecutive years. Analysis of>500 strains provides a first taxonomic overview of fern endophytes at a community scale and reveals high diversity, host preference, and interannual variation in fungal assemblages. However, when variation due to host species is taken into account, community structure is similar among fern tissue types, habits, and sampling sites over a small spatial scale. In Appendix B, I expand my work to evaluate the abundance, species-level and phylogenetic diversity, and distributions of fern-affiliated endophytes in three neotropical forests (La Selva, Costa Rica; Barro Colorado Island, Panama; Los Tuxtlas, Mexico). My analysis of > 2000 isolates reveals that communities differ significantly among fern species within sites, and among ferns in different sites. Intersite differences in communities are correlated with geographic distance and environmental dissimilarity. My work suggests that extrapolative estimates of fungal diversity should take into account not just host species, but locality and environmental variation as well. In Appendix C I focus on a representative genus of Ascomycota (Lecythophora) to evaluate how multi-locus phylogenetic analyses of endophytes can detect new species. Lecythophora is a geographically widespread genus that includes opportunistic human pathogens, produces novel secondary metabolites, and consists presently of six described species. Multi-locus analysis of 33 newly collected strains suggested seven phylogenetic species that are new to science and highlighted their capacity to inhibit growth of two plant pathogenic fungi. This work shows how recognition of cryptic species even in well-characterized genera has major implications for estimating fungal biodiversity.

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