Five statistical and dynamical tropical cyclone intensity guidance techniques available at the National Hurricane Center during the 2003 and 2004 Atlantic and Eastern North Pacific seasons were evaluated within three intensity phases: (I) formation; (II early intensification; and (III) decay. During the formation phase, the Decay Statistical Hurricane Intensity Prediction (DSHIPS) technique was the best technique in both basins. When the forecast errors during formation exceed +/- 10 kt, the statistical techniques tend to over-forecast and the dynamical models tend to under-forecast. Whereas DSHIPS was also the best technique in the Atlantic during the early intensification stage, the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory model was the best in the Eastern North Pacific. All techniques under-forecast periods of rapid intensification and the peak intensity, and have an overall poor performance during decay-reintensification cycles in both basins. Whereas the DSHIPS was the best technique in the Atlantic during decay, none of the techniques excelled during the decay phase in the eastern North Pacific. All techniques tend to decay the tropical cyclones in both basins too slowly, except that the DSHIPS performed well (13 of 15) during rapid decay events in the Atlantic. Similar error characteristics had been found in the western North Pacific.

The tropics are a key part of the global biosphere. Specifically, the woodland environments not only moderate large scale climate dynamics, but are also crucial in the global carbon cycle. Despite this, tropical dendrochronological studies are rare due to the uncertainty in annual dating from the minimal seasonality in most tropic environments. Without distinct annual tree rings, dendrochronological dating methods do not work, therefore other dating methods are required before long term forest growth analyses can be made. Alternatives such as radiocarbon and stable isotope measurements can be expensive and require high resolution measurement in order to identify seasonality. This thesis introduces a novel dating method for tropical trees using calcium as a tracer of annual wood formation. Laser Ablation-ICP-MS provides a fast, high resolution method for measuring mineral elements which could potentially provide a solution to the dating of tropical trees. Initially, Scots pine provided an excellent testing species for the development of both the methodological and analytical dating methods proposed through this thesis. It's well defined, annually dated ring structure formed the basis of seasonal signal detection and the development of an objective analysis for dating. This was achieved by the continuous measurement of calcium, and utilising a threshold detection approach to define annual growth cycles with respect to extreme peaks in the tracer data-series. The initial success of the calcium dating method using pine allowed for testing the technique on a tropical trees species from Cameroon which lacks distinct rings. Along with radiocarbon dating, the robustness of the calcium dating method for this tropical species was assessed. Promising results were initially found however, these could not be replicated and validation of this method proved problematic. Finally, radiocarbon dates were used to assess the nature of the oxygen and carbon stable isotopic series from the single tree of the same species from the tropical calcium tests. Results showed that despite the clear cyclic signal present in the oxygen isotope record, this did not represent an annual signal. These results reinforce the problems associated with tropical dendro analysis.

Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited. / Large-scale circulations in the 15-25 day period over the western North Pacific during northern summer were determined using the leading modes of a Singular Value Decomposition of 850 hPa winds and outgoing longwave radiation. Composites were constructed to define the wave patterns' structural characteristics. Their evolution is characterized by alternating cyclonic and anticyclonic equatorial anomalies that are linked to anomalous convective activity. Mid-latitude perturbations appear to contribute to the growth of new equatorial disturbances. Variability within the cycle is examined relative to variations in the basic state vertical wind shear and zonal wind convergence or divergence in the region equator-10ðN, 140ðE-160ðE. For the 50 cases in a basic state with easterly vertical wind shear and convergence, westward-moving waves propagate farther northwestward, wavelength contraction is greater, their orientation changes from east-west to southwest-northeast, and waves appear to be coupled with a Southern Hemisphere mid-latitude wave train. For the zonal wind divergence set, wave activity occurs farther eastward, circulations maintain a longer wavelength and more zonal orientation, and linkage with the Southern Hemisphere mid-latitudes is minimal. A statistically-significant relationship exists between the 15-25 day wave phase and tropical cyclone activity. Formation frequency and preferred locations are modulated by the 15-25 day wave. / Lieutenant, United States Navy

No description available.

Thesis (M. S.)--Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Georgia Institute of Technology, 2010. / Committee Chair: Curry, Judith A.; Committee Member: Black, Robert X.; Committee Member: Deng, Yi. Part of the SMARTech Electronic Thesis and Dissertation Collection.

published_or_final_version / Geography and Geology / Master / Master of Philosophy

Previous work in animal nutrition has focused on single feeds and assumed additivity in ration systems. In the tropics, farmers are likely to feed mixtures of feeds, including tree fodders, which may not be simply additive in nutritional terms. This study has increased our understanding of the mechanisms that determine the associative effects on the in vitro fermentation of mixtures of fodder tree leaves. Associative effects are governed by a synchronisation in the fermentation rates of the components of the mixture. This is in turn dependent on the fermentability of their chemical constituents. Effects were demonstrated by changes in the fermentation kinetics of gas production curves. The chemical components of fodder tree leaves that affect the fermentation, and the time at which the effect occurs, were identified, using two media of different nitrogen contents. The fermentation of mixtures of pure chemical entities in various combinations was then examined. The greatest associative effects were found when the mixture had components of similar fermentability. It is proposed that associative effects are a function of the synchronisation of fermentation of the different components and was shown to occur at the point when the rate was maximal. With two types of protein (casein and bovine serum albumin (BSA)), utilisation of a protein by rumen microbes was shown to be a function of its fermentability and not of its solubility. This is also influenced by the type of associated carbohydrate. Fodder tree leaves were then combined with different pure chemical entities. Associative effects between fodder tree leaves and carbohydrates were shown to occur and the responses were similar to those obtained with mixtures of pure carbohydrates and proteins. The effect of tannins and phenolic compounds was studied using quebracho tannin as a model, and in five of the tree species. They were shown to affect the fermentability of both carbohydrates and proteins. The effect was greater with carbohydrates of medium to low fermentability. They also reacted with both soluble and insoluble protein. Forages with phenolic compounds showed both positive and negative effects. The effects were possible due to a synchrony or asynchrony in the release of protein. In mixtures of leaves from different species, associative effects were related to their fermentability. Again, this appeared to be the result of the synchronisation of the release of nutrients. Associative effects with fodder tree leaves were of a composite nature and can be both positive and negative. The implications of these findings in relation to in vivo digestion and animal production are discussed. Due to the diversity of fodder trees, there is the potential to develop feeding systems based on mixtures which make better use of available resources. This will also contribute to improved efficiency in the management and use of natural resources, and take advantage of natural plant diversity in the tropics.

Weeds severely limit agricultural production in many Third World tropical countries where productivity is already marginal due to unfavourable environmental, biological, economic and social factors. Lack of both ecological and distributional information at the scale of the weed assemblage, and lack of detailed data on the life histories and responses of the constituent weedy species hinders development of cheap and effective weed management strategies not contingent on intensive use of herbicides. / Plant geographers can contribute to the solution of tropical weed problems by investigating factors which mediate the dynamics of species: regional and local ranges. The research in this thesis departs from other plant geographic studies on tropical week assemblages (e.g. Kellman, 1973) by undertaking experimental field studies which are designed to uncover aspects of the differential abilities of species to make the transition from localized immigrant population to widespread and abundant weed. / The research focusses on six alien species invading agricultural and non-agricultural land in a lowland tropical region: coastal Guyana. Experiments are directed towards propositions concerning the basis for differential colonizing success of two common (Echinochloa colonum (L) Link, Macroptilium lathyroides L.) and four uncommon (Asclepias curassavica L., Emilia fosbergii D. H. Nicholson, Malachra alceifolia Jacq., Paspalum virgatum L.) species of cultivated fields in an area of prime agricultural land. Experimental colonizing trials, which equalize the opportunities of each species to colonize, provide a reference point against which to assess inter- and intra-species differences. / Results of colonizing trials suggest that the species represent four ecological groups. These are Macroptilium and Emilia (Group 1), Echinochloa (Group 2), Malachra and Asclepias (Group 3), and Paspalum (Group 4). / Species of Group 1 have the highest potential for establishment in cultivated fields within a single growing season. Emilia, though currently not a prominent species in the study area, should be controlled early. Heavy insect predation and consequent slow maturity of Asclepias reduce the likelihood of its rapid establishment in the area. Malachra and Paspalum, though not predated, have slow generation times, and hence are also unlikely to rapidly invade frequently cultivated fields. However, the high incidence of interruption of cultivation in the coastal farmlands is likely to promote their range expansion.

Thesis (M.S.)--University of Hawaii at Manoa, 2006. / Includes bibliographical references (leaves 28-29). / vii, 58 leaves, bound 29 cm

Thesis (Ph.D.)--George Mason University, 2008. / Vita: p. 160. Thesis director: Ben P. Kirtman. Submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy in Climate Dynamics. Title from PDF t.p. (viewed July 18, 2008). Includes bibliographical references (p. 152-159). Also issued in print.