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This is an empirical study using a logistic regression model to assess the impact of mobilization and unemployment on an individual's decision to stay in or leave the reserves. The goal is to find out the attrition behavior of USMCR participants in order to better establish recruiting and retention goals in the Reserve population. Questions regarding attrition influencers, effects of mobilization, and applicability to both officer and enlisted personnel were reviewed in this process. The effects of being called to active service are shown to have a positive effect on retention in the reserves. Similarly, serving in the SMCR and Stand-by Reserves are both shown in the model to have a positive effect on reserve retention. This makes sense, in that when an individual volunteers in the Marine Reserves, he or she evidences a desire to serve his country when called to do so. The negative effect of an increase in the number of days served on active duty, as shown in the results of the model, follows similar logic. Had the individual wanted to serve on a full-time active duty basis he would have volunteered for the active duty component. The longer he is asked to remain on active duty, the more dissatisfied he is, on average, with his participation in the reserves. The negative effect of an increase in the individual's home of record unemployment rate is also consistent with previous findings, and when combined with the negative effect of continued mobilization and recall from the IRR or a retired status, a significant negative impact is seen on the individual's decision to stay in. The findings indicate that multiple short activations have a positive impact, whereas the impact of fewer, lengthy activations is negative This study validated previous research regarding the likelihood to continue to serve in the Marine Corps Reserves. As a result, the Marine Corps has the potential to better allocate resources and schedule individual activations, reducing attrition. This can assist in shaping the force structure when the Marine Corps are needed.

Cette thèse a pour objet d’évaluer l’impact de l’Assurance-Chômage sur les trajectoires individuelles à partir de données administratives françaises. Le premier chapitre étudie les conséquences de la réforme de 2003 sur le chômage des seniors. L’analyse économétrique repose sur une approche combinée par Régression avec Discontinuité et Différence de Différences. Les résultats obtenus mettent en évidence une réduction significative des durées de chômage suite à l’adoption de la réforme. Le deuxième chapitre propose quant à lui une évaluation du dispositif d’Activité Réduite. Ce système autorise les chômeurs indemnisés à cumuler une partie de leurs allocations avec le salaire provenant d’emplois temporaires. L’estimation d’un modèle de durée multivarié permet d’isoler l’effet causal du dispositif tout en tenant compte de l’endogénéité potentielle de la durée d’activité réduite et du phénomène d’attrition. L’impact sur les transitions vers l’emploi apparaît relativement modeste. Néanmoins, l’effet observé se révèle plus important pour les demandeurs d’emploi rencontrant des difficultés de réinsertion sur le marché du travail. Le troisième chapitre considère enfin le lien entre la générosité de l’indemnisation et la récurrence des périodes de chômage. Le cadre retenu est celui des modèles autorégressifs à effets fixes sur données de panel.Les principaux résultats indiquent que la générosité passée de l’indemnisation n’exerce pas d’effet persistant sur la durée des épisodes de chômage. Celle-ci s’expliquerait essentiellement par l’hétérogénéité individuelle et les conditions d’indemnisation dont bénéficient les individus à leur inscription au chômage. / The aim of this thesis is to assess the effects of Unemployment Insurance and related programs on individual labourmarket paths using French administrative data. Chapter one investigates the effects of the 2003 UI reform onunemployment of older workers using a combined Regression Discontinuity / Difference-in-Differences approach.The results suggest that reform had a structural impact on the distribution of unemployment durations, which shifteddownwards in response to benefits cuts. Partial benefit program (Activité Réduite) that allows registered job seekersto concurrently receive part of their unemployment payments and wages from temporary jobs is analyzed in chaptertwo. The results emerging from the estimation of a multivariate duration model correcting for the endogenousnature of the time in program and accounting for attrition suggest a weak effect of this scheme on transitions toemployment. The impact is however most sizable for the individuals with low labor market prospects. Chapter threestudies the relationship between the generosity of unemployment compensation and unemployment persistenceusing a panel vector autoregressive fixed effect model estimated on count data. The results suggest that past benefitsgenerosity does not affect the duration of unemployment spells, this latter being mainly explained by individualeffects and potential benefits duration.

This study is an attempt to provide a comprehensive review of the Texas unemployment insurance program that will yield a greater understanding of the factors that have brought the program to its present position and will give some insight into what can be done to improve the system.