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This study examines U.S. exports and imports to/from its major 15 trading partners and Russia. To analyze U.S. export and import flows the gravity model approach is used. Factors affecting U.S. bilateral trade flows with its 16 trading countries are evaluated using Generalized Method of Moments (GMM). Annual data from 2000 to 2009 are used for this study. Goods traded between the U.S. and its trading partners are disaggregated into three groups based on the Standard International Trade Classification (SITC). Results show that major factors affecting both U.S. export and import flows are distance and change in polity score. Also U.S. exports are influenced by U.S. trading partner Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for agricultural (AGR) and middle sector (MID) groups. U.S. foreign direct investment is a complement for U.S. exports of final (FIN) group and at the same time it serves as substitute for U.S. exports of AGR. On the other hand, U.S. imports of AGR and foreign direct investment (FDI) from 16 trading partners to the U.S. are substitutes. This study also reveals that the U.S. and Russia bilateral trade could be improved through economic growth in both countries, improving political cooperation and increasing inward and outward FDI.

University of Macau / Faculty of Social Sciences and Humanities / Department of Government and Public Administration

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Orientador: Sebastião Carlos Velasco e Cruz / Dissertação (mestrado) - Universidade Estadual de Campinas, Instituto de Filosofia e Ciências Humanas / Made available in DSpace on 2018-08-19T07:27:54Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Preto_CarolinaCristinaLoucao_M.pdf: 1117555 bytes, checksum: 0b22346e66296aff90611eee9900bb5d (MD5) Previous issue date: 2011 / Resumo: Este trabalho tem como objetivo central examinar e problematizar a reflexão sobre o relacionamento entre a Organização Mundial do Comércio e, seu principal arquiteto, os Estados Unidos, à luz de diferentes teorias das Relações Internacionais e de considerações em torno do debate doméstico sobre a OMC nesse país. Observamos a relação entre os EUA e a OMC tanto no que concerne o plano das negociações comerciais multilaterais, como também, no que se refere à dimensão do Órgão de Solução de Controvérsias, tentando estabelecer paralelos com as dificuldades de negociação no âmbito da Rodada Doha. Historicamente, os EUA dominaram os resultados das negociações comerciais multilaterais, prevalecendo na determinação do conteúdo das regras da OMC, assim como, na definição de suas principais características: uma ampla cobertura temática e a presença de um mecanismo judicial que está entre as formas mais avançadas de direito internacional da atualidade. Contudo, estudos indicam que, no plano das negociações comerciais, devido a alterações na economia mundial, a tradicional influência norte-americana foi sendo reduzida ao longo do tempo, apresentando implicações importantes para o processo de produção de regras da organização. Além disso, autores sugerem que a reforma do OSC melhorou o posicionamento das partes demandantes das disputas, mesmo quando essas partes estavam iniciando casos contra os EUA, restringindo assim a capacidade desse Estado de determinar os resultados das disputas e de descumprir seus compromissos internacionais no campo do comércio. Os interesses norte-americanos estão largamente refletidos na OMC e, embora esse seja o traço mais forte a definir o relacionamento entre os EUA e essa instituição, ele não é o único. A interação entre a OMC e os interesses dos EUA parece mais complexa do que alguns teóricos das relações internacionais argumentaram / Abstract: The main purpose of this work is to examine and discuss the reflection on the relationship between the World Trade Organization and, its principal architect, the United States, in light of different theories of International Relations and of considerations over the domestic debate on the WTO in this country. We observed the relationship between the U.S. and the WTO both in respect to the multilateral trade negotiations and with regard to the Dispute Settlement Body, trying to draw parallels with the current difficulties in negotiating the Doha Round. Historically, the U.S. has dominated the results of multilateral trade negotiations, prevailed in the determination of the rules of the WTO and, consequently, in the definition of its main features: a broad coverage and the presence of a judicial mechanism that is among the most advanced forms of international law today. Nevertheless, concerning the multilateral trade negotiations, studies point out that, due to changes in the global economy, U.S.'s influence in this area has been reduced over time, with significant implications for the rule-making process of the organization. Besides that, some authors argue that the reform of the DSB has improved the positioning of plaintiffs in disputes, even when they were starting cases against the U.S. and thus restricted U.S.'s ability to determine the outcome of disputes and disregard its international commitments in the field of trade. U.S.'s interests are largely reflected in the WTO and, although this is the strongest characteristic applied in order to describe the relationship between the U.S. and this institution, this is not the only one. The interaction between the WTO and the U.S's interests may actually be more complex than some International Relations scholars have argued / Mestrado / Instituições, Processos e Atores / Mestre em Relações Internacionais