The Latino community in the United States, currently estimated at over 23 million, is projected to become the largest minority group in America within the next fifteen years. However, insufficient national-level data on Latinos has resulted in relatively few studies being published on the voting behavior of this increasingly important group. Using data drawn from the first national probability sample of Latinos, the Latino National Political Survey, this paper addresses selected socio-demographic indices correlated with voter turnout. The logistic regression model empirically demonstrates the importance of distinguishing among subgroups and identifies the life-cycle effect as a principle determinant of voter turnout.

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In this study, data-processed averages of the congressional voting ratings of Americans for Democratic Action (ADA), the AFL-CIO Committee on Political Education (COPE), and Americans for Constitutional Action (ACA) were utilized comparatively for the thirteen consecutive 1947-1972 postwar American Congresses. ADA, COPE, and ACA rating averages served as tracers to plot the 1947-1972 ideological dispositions, differentials and directions of the American Congress, congressional parties, House and Senate, geopolitical regions, demographic, and religious groupings. ADA, COPE, and ACA averages consistently corroborated 1947-1972 ideological trends.Congress experienced four ideological epicycles during 1947-1972. Following a 1947-1949 conservative reactionism, a 1949-1958 liberalizing moderation climaxed in a 1959-1966 crescendo of epic liberalism, succeeded by a 1967-1972 moderating liberalism. The 1947-1972 congressional parties manifested changing degrees of ideological polarity.The ideologically divergent postwar congressional parties converged during the 1949-1958 era of liberalizing moderation as urbanizing congressional Republicans moderated appreciably. During the 1959-1966 liberal surge, congressional Republicans fashioned a conservative pro-Southern strategy in order to achieve power. From 1967 to 1972, the parties converged ideologically; Southern congressional Democrats rapidly conservatized and social-issue conscious urban congressional Democrats ideologically moderated while suburbanizing congressional Republicans liberalized.The 1947-1972 House and Senate changed ideological positions. The House was ideologically superseded by a belatedly more urban and, therefore, more liberal post-1961 Senate. Urban liberal Senate Republicans accounted for the greater liberalism of the Senate; the urbanized House Democracy continued to exceed the liberalism of the Senate Democracy.Rural, suburban and urban groupings displayed greater degrees of liberalism from the least to the greatest density of population. Rural congressional district and state averages were conservative, and suburban and urban averages were moderate and liberal respectively. The 1969-1972 suburban and urban averages moderated. Protestant, Catholic and Jewish congressional district averages were conservative, liberal and strongly liberal respectively.The standard geopolitical regions of East, South, Midwest and West experienced dramatic 1947-1972 ideological and partisan transition. The East realigned from a congressional Republican bastion to a congressional Democratic bastion and revolved from the most conservative to the most liberal region. The South shifted from the most liberal to the most conservative region and began a rapid, pro-Republican realignment. The Midwest liberalized and realigned Democratically and the West conservatized and gravitated toward the GOP.Thus, congressional Democrats were becoming the liberal party of the North and congressional Republicans were becoming the conservative party of the Heartland. These 1947-1972 ideological and partisan transitions were apparent in the behavior of the Yankee Zone and Sun Belt geopolitical subregions. The conservative Republican Yankee Zone revolved into a bastion of liberal Democracy while the solidly Democratic Sun Belt conservatized and trended Republican.The depopulation of rural areas and cities and the population plurality of suburbia were disclosed in the 1970 census. The 1966-1972 emergence of congressional Republicans to majority control of suburban constituencies suggests the advent of a suburban political cycle of ideological moderation and Republican supremacy. The depopulation of the liberalizing and Democratizing East and Midwest and the population of the conservatizing and Republicanizing South and Sun Belt corroborate this projection.

This thesis investigates if and how poor, mostly minority citizens can be mobilized by a campaign whose principal policy objective would materially enhance their lives by including them in a major public program. The question is put to the test through a multi-dimensional study of voter mobilization in Alabama during the 2014 election for Governor. At stake in the election was whether Alabama would expand Medicaid through the Affordable Care Act in Alabama, an issue emblematic of "submergedness" (Mettler, 2011). In order to understand the extent to which the policy was submerged - measured by knowledge and awareness of the policy, along with its key provisions - I distributed a survey to 868 Alabamians weeks before the election. The survey used the experimental design of conjoint analysis to test which aspects of the policy were most persuasive among the target population. Additionally, I performed a randomized field experiment across the four major metropolitan areas of Alabama, micro-targeting 6,021 registered voters living in the "Coverage Gap," citizens who could gain health insurance if Medicaid were expanded. The campaign yielded negligible effects on voter turnout among subjects in the Coverage Gap, even though the interventions shifted voter knowledge, 'surfacing' the policy. In addition to the survey and field experiments, this research benefits from qualitative insights gathered in 22 semi-structured interviews conducted among poor Alabamians, many of whom were uninsured. From these interviews, it became clear that the political disengagement of the poor is deeply entrenched, prohibitive of policy-based mobilization. Disengagement is driven by a complex mix of barriers to registration and perceptions of political inefficacy based on interpretations of extant policy designs. These results have important implications for our understanding of the limitations of policy-based mobilization, suggesting that more attention must be paid to how current policies shape predispositions for mobilization.

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This dissertation addresses voters' information heterogeneity and its effect on spatial voting. While most spatial voting models simply assume that voter uncertainty about candidate preferences is homogeneous across voters despite Downs' early use of uncertainty scale to classify the electorate, information studies have discovered that well and poorly informed citizens have sizeable and consistent differences in issue conceptualization, perception, political opinion and behavior. Built upon the spatial theory's early insights on uncertainty and the findings of information literature, this dissertation claims that information effects should be incorporated into the spatial voting model. By this incorporation, I seek to unify the different scholarly traditions of the spatial theory of voting and the study of political information. I hypothesize that uncertainty is not homogeneous, but varies with the level of information, which are approximated by political activism as well as information on candidate policy positions. To test this hypothesis, I employ heteroskedastic probit models that specify heterogeneity of voter uncertainty in probabilistic models of spatial voting. The models are applied to the U.S. presidential elections in 1992-2004. The empirical results of the analysis strongly support the expectation. They reveal that voter uncertainty is heterogeneous as a result of uneven distributions of information and political activism even when various voting cues are available. This dissertation also discovers that this heterogeneity in voter uncertainty has a significant effect on electoral outcomes. It finds that the more uncertain a voter is about the candidates, the more likely he or she is to vote for the incumbent or a better-known candidate. This clearly reflects voters' risk-averse attitudes that reward the candidate with greater certainty, all other things held constant. Heterogeneity in voter uncertainty and its electoral consequences, therefore, have important implications for candidates' strategies. The findings suggest that the voter heterogeneity leads candidates' equilibrium strategies and campaign tactics to be inconsistent with those that spatial analysts have normally proposed. / text

Indiana University-Purdue University Indianapolis (IUPUI) / Prior studies on state legislative elections have found gubernatorial coattails playing a key role; however, they fail to examine the temporal and state-based trends of this phenomena. Using precinct level data from nine states (Alabama, Arkansas, California, Minnesota, New York, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Texas, and Wyoming), over two election cycles (2002 and 2006), I measure the importance a state’s ideological makeup, and a governor’s institutional powers has on gubernatorial coattails. Findings reaffirm the importance of coattails, and previously researched variables; however, the addition of the above measures greatly affects coattail strength, dependent on host of controlling factors.