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Climate change has sparked growing interest in the relationship between food security and our climate systems. Crop productivity is tightly correlated with fluctuating temperatures, carbon dioxide (CO2), and rainfall. The purpose of this research is to examine the quantitative relationship between these factors to better understand the magnitude of global systematic risk. Econometric models are constructed for three different contexts: a global analysis of country-level crop yields is explored using a fixed-effects panel regression model; a meta-analysis of farm-level experiments exposed to varying levels of CO2 and temperatures; and a regional analysis of Saskatchewan rural municipalities using a spatial dataset of historical weather data. In summary, reduced yields occur beyond peak thresholds of temperature and rising CO2 will lead to substantial increases in yield potential and reduced water use. These relationships vary in magnitude across crop species, but the underlying direction of the relationships are the same. This research improves upon previous methods in the literature, explores novel datasets, and contributes to the estimation of climate impacts in agriculture. / Graduate

Predicting the net effect of climate change on communities requires understanding how increasing temperatures alter interactions between predators, herbivores, and plants. Over the last several decades, warming experiments have provided important information about how species and their interactions will respond to increasing temperatures. These studies typically examine climate warming by experimentally increasing temperature at a constant level (24 hours) or asynchronously during the daytime, relative to unwarmed control treatments. However, advances in climate models now project that increases in mean global temperatures have been disproportionately driven by increasing nighttime (minimum) temperatures rather than daytime (maximum) temperatures. The timing of warming could have important ecological implications. For example, while night warming could benefit an organism by increasing temperatures towards a more thermally-optimal environment, day warming could raise temperatures beyond a thermal optimum and induce heat-stress. Consequently, mismatching the timing of warming in experiments relative to actual temperature changes could generate misleading predictions about the effects of climate warming. My dissertation has evaluated climate-warming experiments by characterizing past methods, demonstrating present methods, and providing a foundation for future studies. I conducted a meta-analysis on past terrestrial predator-prey climate warming studies that revealed experimental temperatures rarely match model projections, and the magnitude of this mismatch correlated with increased changes in measured effects. Two experiments, one focused on predator functional traits and the other trophic cascades, showed that different types of warming treatments result in different effects of climate change. The context dependency of warming effects necessitates careful consideration of experimental treatments if studies are to accurately predict the effects of climate warming. Region specific climate data are now readily available. Moving forward, ecologists can use these models to inform their warming treatments and perform experiments with the highest level of realism.

Snowbed vegetation contains both vascular plants and bryophytes. The latest snowbeds cover areas that are of predominantly, if not exclusively, bryophyte flora while the vascular plants are generally confined to the periphery of such late snowbeds. It is hypothesised that the exclusion of vascular flora from the snowbed core is the result of the shortened growing season generated by late-lying snow, which the bryophyte flora is better able to tolerate. The snowbed bryophytes cannot, however, tolerate the competition offered by the vascular flora in the peripheral areas from which they are absent. Data indicate that some of the bryophyte snowbed species are inhabiting optimal conditions in the snowbed core, rather than tolerating sub-optimal conditions. Adaptation and acclimation responses observed in peripheral vascular species indicate that these are inhabiting sub-optimal conditions in the snowbed periphery. The relationship between snow-lie and climate is examined, with to the construction and examination of a second hypothesis that snowbed loyalty in the Scottish Highlands is high, while duration of snow cover is variable. Snow-lie loyalty is the product of prevailing wind conditions, which are persistent and consistent in Scotland leading to consistency in late snowbed location, while the occurrence of mid-winter thaws at all altitudes makes duration of snow cover through accumulated snow depth much more variable. Increased zonal flow in winter has affected snow-lie in the Scottish Highlands, with a slight decrease in snow-lie duration in recent years. It is not clear whether this pattern applies to all altitudes and accumulations at higher levels, especially in the western Highlands, may be increasing as a result of steeper winter-time lapse rates. With late snowbed location varying very little, it is possible that the consequences of global warming may not necessarily mean an extinction of the late snowbed bryophytes in Scotland, which constitute an important part of Britain's montane flora.

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Climate change as a result of anthropogenic activities calls for reduction of greenhouse gas emissions to avoid dangerous consequences on society. However, abatement of emission is a costly process and adversely affects the economic growth. Recent proposals, therefore, suggested a different approach i.e. Geoengineering. Instead of controlling emissions, Geoengineering modifies the climate by changing global energy fluxes either by increasing the amount of outgoing infrared radiation through reduction of greenhouse gases (GHGs) or by decreasing the amount of solar radiation falling upon the earth’s surface by increasing the albedo (reflectivity) of the atmosphere. Most popular geoengineering strategies are Air Capture (AC) and Solar Radiation Management (SRM) and many economic studies have shown large net monetary benefits with their application. But, these studies neglected the risks which can arise due to potential failure to sustain SRM after few decade of its deployment. There is a concern that application of SRM will lead to increase in concentration of carbon-dioxide in atmosphere and its abrupt turning off can lead to rise in temperature and thereby huge monetary losses. In this report, consequences of abruptly turning off of SRM have been analyzed. A modified version of DICE (Dynamic Integrated model of Climate and the Economy) model that incorporates negative SRM forcing and a two phase optimization procedure has been used for the study. Different outcomes such as net change in NPV of climate damage and abatement costs, maximum mean temperature of earth surface, increase in temperature, emissions control rate, carbon taxes, etc due to abrupt ending of SRM have been analyzed. Results show that application of SRM with a risk of abrupt turnoff is still more profitable compared to not using it at all. / text

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