Water distribution systems are critical infrastructure systems enabling the social and economic welfare of a community. While normal failures are expected and repaired quickly, low-probability and high consequence disruptive events have potential to cause severe damage to the infrastructure and significantly reduce their performance or even stop their function altogether. Resilient infrastructure is a necessary component towards achieving resilient and sustainable communities. Resilience concepts allow improved decision making in relation with risk assessment and management in water utilities. However, in order to operationalize infrastructure resilience concepts, it is fundamental to develop practical resilience assessment methods such as the methodology and tool proposed in this research, named Effective Resilience Assessment Methodology for Utilities (ERASMUS). ERASMUS utilizes a stochastic simulation model to evaluate the probability of resilient response from a water distribution system in case of disruption. This methodology utilizes a parametric concept of resilience, in which a resilient infrastructure system is defined in terms of a set of performance parameters compared with their socially acceptable values under a variety of disruptive events. The methodology is applied to two actual water distribution networks in the East and West coasts of the US. / Ph. D.

As demand for alternative water sources intensifies, increased use of reclaimed water is important to help achieve water sustainability. In addition to treatment, the manner in which reclaimed water is distributed is a key consideration as it governs the water quality at the point of use. In this work, simulated reclaimed water distribution systems (SRWDSs) were operated for more than two years to examine the role of system design, biofiltration, residual disinfectant type (i.e., chlorine, chloramine, no residual) and temperature on important aspects of chemistry and microbial regrowth under laboratory-controlled conditions. Turbidity decreased to 0.78 NTU after biofiltration and chlorinated treatments from 10.0-12.6 NTU for conditions with chloramine and no residuals. SRWDSs were susceptible to sediment accumulation, which occupied 0.83-3.2% of the volume of the first pipe segment (1 day of hydraulic residence time), compared to 0.32-0.45% volume in the corresponding chlorinated SRWDSs. The mass of accumulated sediment positively correlated (R2 = 0.82) with influent turbidity. Contrary to experiences with potable water systems, chlorine was found to be more persistent and better at maintaining biological stability in the SRWDSs than chloramine, especially at the higher temperatures >22°C common to many water scarce regions. The severe nitrification at the warmer temperatures rapidly depleted chloramine residuals, decreased dissolved oxygen, and caused elevated levels of nitrifiers and heterotrophic cell counts. A metagenomic taxonomic survey revealed high levels of gene markers of nitrifiers in the biofilm samples at 22°C for the chloraminated system. Non-metric multidimensional scaling analysis confirmed distinct taxonomic and functional microbial profiles between the chlorine and chloramine SRWDSs. Reflecting on multiyear experiences operating two different SRWDSs reactor designs, including thin tubes (0.32-cm diameter) and pipe reactors (10.2-cm), illustrated strengths and weaknesses of both approaches in recreating key aspects of biochemical changes in reclaimed water distribution systems. It is clear that approaches deemed successful with drinking water distribution systems may not always directly transfer to simulating reclaimed distribution systems, or to proactively managing full-scale reclaimed systems that have long periods of stagnation and where minimally-treated wastewater with high levels of nutrients and turbidity are used. / Doctor of Philosophy / Increasing water scarcity is creating an impetus for creating more sustainable water supplies. Wastewater effluent is increasingly viewed as in important resource that can reduce both water and energy demand. Reclaiming moderately to minimally-treated secondary wastewater effluent for non-potable reuse (NPR) applications; such as agricultural irrigation, landscaping, and toilet flushing, helps reduce demand for higher quality potable water sources. NPR presently accounts for more than 50% of total reuse and is projected to become increasingly important. While NPR is attractive, important knowledge gaps remain in terms of managing water quality and safety as it is transported through distribution pipes to the point of use. A comprehensive literature review revealed that NPR distribution systems are distinct from conventional drinking water distribution systems (DWDSs) and that it is doubtful if our current understanding of DWDSs would directly transfer to NPR systems. Unlike drinking water systems, NPR systems are currently unregulated at the national level and corresponding state-to-state regulations vary widely. The levels of water treatment can vary from simply distributing untreated effluent from wastewater treatment plants to very high-level treatment with membranes that produces water of equal or even higher quality than many existing tap waters. A common treatment train for minimally-treated NPR involves biologically activated carbon (BAC) filtration and the use of disinfectants (e.g., chlorine or chloramine) to control microbial water quality to the point of use. Prior studies from DWDSs have demonstrated water quality degradation in terms of disinfectant loss, bacterial growth, and aesthetic problems, with the settling of trace particulate matter producing sediment within pipe distribution systems. In particular, accumulated sediment can become a hotspot for water quality deterioration. Considering that minimally-treated reclaimed water can have much higher levels of particulate matter and nutrients than drinking water, it was predicted that NPR distribution systems could suffer from faster water quality degradation than corresponding drinking water systems, especially at the warmer temperatures common in water-scarce regions. This work was the first multi-year attempt to examine the effects of disinfectant (i.e. free chlorine, chloramine, no residual), BAC filtration versus no filtration, water age (up to 5-d versus 28-min), and temperature (14°C, 22°C, 30°C) in different types of lab-scale reactors. Two simulated reclaimed water distribution systems (SRWDSs) including 4-in. diameter Pipe SRWDSs versus 1/8-in. diameter Tube SRWDSs, were designed to study key aspects of full-scale NPR systems and were operated for more than two years to study chemical and microbial changes as distributed water traveled through the two systems. The Pipe SRWDSs were designed to assess the impacts on final water quality after long-term operation that allowed sediment to slowly accumulate, whereas the complementary Tube SRWDS design did not allow sediment to accumulate and only held the water for 28 minutes. Water was sampled regularly to track the trends of key water quality parameters, including disinfectant residuals, dissolved oxygen, nitrogen compounds involved in nitrification reactions, and various types of bacteria of interest. Sequencing of the biological genetic materials on selected samples was conducted to understand the types of bacteria present and their functions under the different circumstances. High levels of sediment were found to accumulate near the beginning of the Pipe SRWDSs, which caused loss of oxygen and disinfectants at the bottom of the pipes. Chlorine was more persistent and better at preventing bacteria growth as water traveled through the distribution system. In contrast, a type of bacteria that used ammonia as a nutrient (i.e., nitrifying bacteria) were observed in the pipes with chloramine (i.e., ammonia plus chlorine) as the disinfectant. The nitrifying bacteria caused rapid depletion of chloramine residuals, especially at temperatures above 22°C. At 30°C both chlorine and chloramine were almost immediately consumed in the pipe reactors. Nitrification is known to trigger water quality problems in chloraminated DWDSs, and we expect that chloraminated RWDSs would be even more susceptible to nitrification and associated water quality degradation issues in Compare the Tube SRWDSs to the Pipe SRWDSs, aside from heavy accumulations of sediment in the pipes versus no sediment in the thin tubes, the tubes clogged repeatedly from formation of thick biofoulants in the systems treated with no disinfectant and chloramine, whereas they remained relatively free of biofoulants and clogging in the tubes with chlorine. Even in just 28 minutes, it took water to move from the start to the end of the tube, both chlorine and chloramine were almost completely consumed in the tubes, due to the unrealistically high pipe surface area to the small flow volume inherent to this reactor design. As NPR becomes increasingly common to help achieve water sustainability, it will be important to deploy laboratory simulations, that are capable of testing and revealing key chemical and microbial processes that affect the operation of these systems and water safety at the point of use. The insights from this first long-term effort of simulating RWDSs highlight some unique characteristics and challenges of RWDSs, and reveals key concepts to help guide future research.

Water distribution systems convey drinking water from treatment plant and make available to consumers’ taps. It consists of essential components like pipes, valves, pumps, tanks and reservoirs etc. The main concern in the working of a water distribution system is to assure customer demands under a choice of quantity and quality throughout the complete life span for the probable loading situations. However, in some cases, the existing infrastructure may not be adequate to meet the customer’s requirements. In such cases, system modeling plays an important role in proper management of water supply systems. In present scenario, modeling plays a significant task in appropriate execution of water distribution system. From the angle of taking management decisions valve throttling control and pumps speed control are very important. These operational problems can be addressed by manual control or by automatic control. The problem is the use of manual controls that slow down the effectiveness of the system. It reduces the efficiency of operation of valve or pump. To improve the efficiency of such water distribution systems, an automatic control based technology has been developed that links the operation of the variable speed pump control or valve throttling control. By employing an automatic control, the pump can adjust its speed at all times to meet the actual flow requirements of each load served. In case of real system design Simulink is the most widely used tool. Commercial software package Matlab/Simulink used for creation of WDS model. The goal was to produce a model that could numerically analyze the dynamic performance of a water distribution system. A Comparison of single platform methodology (Simulink based control) and double platform methodology (Matlab and EPANET based control) has been done. Nonlinear Dynamic Inversion (DI) Control system model is developed for WDS model in Matlab/Simulink environment. Controller gain parameters are the very important value in control prospective. If the controller gain parameters are chosen incorrectly, the controlled process input can be unstable, i.e. its output diverges, with or without oscillation Tuning is the adjustment of control parameters (gains) to the optimum values for the desired control response. There are several methods for tuning controller like manual tuning (Trial and error procedure), Ziegler-Nichols method, Output Constraint Tuning (OCT) etc. Establishment of a pump operational policy by which all the reservoirs can be fed simultaneously to meet their requirements without creating undue transients. Tune the gain of DI controllers by different tuning methods and evaluate the best tuning method on the basis of controller performance. Development of meaningful additional objective is search of lower bound pump speed on the basis of control time or settling time. To bring the pump speeds in feasible range, application of constraint in pumps speed is introduced. The magnitude of constraints can be found using Monte Carlo methods. Monte Carlo methods are frequently used in simulating physical and mathematical systems. This method may be the most commonly applied statistical method in engineering and science disciplines. Another benefit is providing increased confidence that a model is robust using Monte Carlo testing. Model development for generalized control system for water distribution network provides the simplification needed for the simulation of large systems. Model development is based on the study of symmetric and non symmetric small, irregular networks, as well as large, regular and open bifurcating water distribution system. The problem considered in this section is that of flow dynamics in simple to complex, regular network which bifurcates in the form of a branching tree. In addition the control application of the flow network is investigated using valves as the manipulated variables to control branch flow rates. Communication between the network hydraulics coming from EPANET and control algorithm develop on Matlab (Programming Language) can be generalized with the help of development of general purpose control algorithm model.

Thesis (MScEng)--Stellenbosch University, 2012. / ENGLISH ABSTRACT: The expected peak water demand in a water distribution system (WDS) is an important consideration for WDS design purposes. In South Africa the most common method of estimating peak demand is by multiplying the average demand by a dimensionless peak factor. A peak factor is the ratio between the maximum flow rate (which refers to the largest volume of flow to be received during a relatively short time period, say , expressed as the average volume per unit time), and the average flow rate over an extended time period. The magnitude of the peak factor will vary, for a given daily water demand pattern, depending on the chosen value of . The design guidelines available give no clear indication of the time intervals most appropriate for different peak factor applications. It is therefore important to gain a better understanding regarding the effect of on the derived peak factor. A probability based end-use model was constructed as part of this study to derive diurnal residential indoor water demand patterns on a temporal scale of one second. These stochastically derived water demand patterns were subsequently used to calculate peak factors for different values of , varying from one second to one hour. The end-use model derived the water demand patterns by aggregating the synthesised end-use events of six residential indoor end-uses of water in terms of the water volume required, duration and the time of occurrence of each event. The probability distributions describing the end-use model parameters were derived from actual end-use measurements that had previously been collected in a noteworthy North-American end-use project (Mayer et al., 1999). The original comprehensive database, which included water measurements from both indoor and outdoor end-uses, was purchased for use in this project. A single execution of the end-use model resulted in the synthesised diurnal water demand pattern for a single household. The estimated water demand pattern for simultaneous water demand by groups of households was obtained by adding individual iterations of the end-use model, considering group sizes of between one and 2 000 households in the process. A total of 99 500 model executions were performed, which were statistically aggregated by applying the Monte Carlo method and forming 4 950 unique water demand scenarios representing 29 different household group sizes. For each of the 4 950 water demand scenarios, a set of peak factors was derived for eight selected values. The end-use model presented in this study yielded realistic indoor water demand estimations when compared to publications from literature. In agreement with existing knowledge, as expected, an inverse relationship was evident between the magnitude of the peak factors and . The peak factors across all time intervals were also found to be inversely related to the number of households, which agreed with other publications from literature. As the number of households increased, the degree to which the peak factor was affected by the time intervals decreased. This study explicitly demonstrated the effect of time intervals on peak factors. The results of this study could act as the basis for the derivation of a practical design guideline for estimating peak indoor flows in a WDS, and the work could be extended in future to include outdoor water demand and sensitivity to WDS pressure. / AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Die verwagte water spitsaanvraag is ‘n belangrike oorweging in die ontwerp van ‘n waterverspreidingsnetwerk. Die mees algemene metode in Suid Afrika om spitsaanvraag te bereken is deur die gemiddelde wateraanvraag te vermeningvuldig met ‘n dimensielose spitsfaktor. ‘n Spitsfaktor is die verhouding tussen die maksimum watervloei tempo (wat verwys na die grootste volume water wat ontvang sal word tydens ‘n relatiewe kort tydsinterval, , uitgedruk as die gemiddelde volume per tyd eenheid), en die gemiddelde watervloei tempo gedurende ‘n verlengde tydsinterval. Die grootte van die spitsfaktor sal varieer vir ‘n gegewe daaglikse vloeipatroon, afhangende van die verkose waarde. Die beskikbare ontwerpsriglyne is onduidelik oor watter tydsintervalle meer geskik is vir die verskillende spitsfaktor toepassings. Daarom is dit belangrik om ‘n beter begrip te verkry ten opsigte van die effek van op die verkrygde spitsfaktor. ‘n Waarskynliksheidsgebaseerde eindverbruik model is opgestel om deel te vorm van hierdie studie, om daaglikse residensiële binnenshuise wateraanvraag patrone af te lei op ‘n temporale skaal van een sekonde. Die stogasties afgeleide wateraanvraag patrone is daarna gebruik om die verskeie spitsfaktore te bereken vir verskillende waardes van , wat varieer vanaf een sekonde tot een uur. Die eindverbruik model stel die daaglikse vloeipatroon van een huis saam deur die eindeverbruik gebeure van ses residensiële binnenshuise eindverbruike saam te voeg in terme van the vereiste water volume en die tyd van voorkoms van elke gebeurtenis. Die waarskynliksheids distribusie wat die eindverbruik model parameters omskryf is verkry van werklike gemete eindverbruik waardes, wat voorheen in ‘n beduidende Noord-Amerikaanse eindverbruik projek (Mayer et al. 1999) versamel is. Die oorspronklike en omvattende databasis, wat gemete waardes van binnenshuis en buite water verbruik ingesluit het, is aangekoop vir gebruik gedurende hierdie projek. ‘n Enkele uitvoering van die eindverbruik model stel gevolglik ‘n daaglikse wateraanvraag patroon saam vir ‘n elkele huishouding. Die wateraanvraag patroon vir gelyktydige water verbruik deur groepe huishoudings is verkry deur individuele iterasies van die eindverbruik model statisties bymekaar te tel met die Monte Carlo metode, terwyl groep groottes van tussen een en 2 000 huishoudings in die proses oorweeg is. ‘n Totaal van 99 500 model uitvoerings is gedoen, wat saamgevoeg is om 4 950 unieke watervraag scenarios voor te stel, wat verteenwoordigend is van 29 verskillende huishouding groep groottes. Vir elkeen van die 4 950 watervraag senarios, is ‘n stel spitsfaktore afgelei vir agt verkose waardes. Die eindverbruik model aangebied in hierdie studie lewer ‘n realistiese binnenshuise wateraanvraag skatting, wanneer dit vergelyk word met verslae in die literatuur. Ooreenkomstig met bestaande kennis is ‘n sterk inverse verhouding sigbaar tussen die grootte van die spitsfaktore en . Dit is ook gevind dat die spitsfaktore oor al die tydsintervalle ‘n inverse verband toon tot die aantal huishoudings, wat ooreenstemmend is met ander publikasies in die literatuur. Soos die aantal huishoudings toeneem, het die mate waartoe die spitsfaktor geaffekteer is deur die tydsintervalle afgeneem. Hierdie studie toon duidelik die effek van tydsintervalle op spitsfaktore. Die resultaat van hierdie studie kan dien as basis om praktiese ontwerpsriglyne te verkry in die skatting van binnenshuise spitsvloei in ‘n waterverspreidingsnetwerk, gegewe dat die werk in die toekoms uitgebrei kan word om ook buitenshuise waterverbruik in te sluit, asook sensitiwiteit tot druk in die waterverspreidingsnetwerk.

Thesis (PhD (Logistics))--University of Stellenbosch, 2011. / ENGLISH ABSTRACT: The design of a water distribution system (WDS) involves finding an acceptable trade-off between cost minimisation and the maximisation of numerous system benefits, such as hydraulic reliability and surplus capacity. The primary design problem involves cost-effective specifica- tion of a pipe network layout and pipe sizes (which are typically available in a discrete set of commercial diameters) in order to satisfy expected consumer water demands within required pressure limits. The problem may be extended to consider the design of additional WDS com- ponents, such as reservoirs, tanks, pumps and valves. Practical designs must also cater for the uncertainty of demand, the requirement of surplus capacity for future growth, and the hydraulic reliability of the system under different demand and potential failure conditions. A detailed literature review of exact and approximate approaches towards single-objective (minimum cost) WDS design optimisation is provided. Essential topics which have to be included in any modern WDS design paradigm (such as demand estimation, reliability quantification, tank design and pipe layout) are discussed. A number of formative concepts in multi-objective evo- lutionary optimisation are also reviewed (including a generic problem formulation, performance evaluation measures, comparative testing strategies, and suitable classes of metaheuristics). The two central themes of this dissertation are conducting multi-objective WDS design optimi- sation using metaheuristics, and a critical examination of surrogate measures used to quantify WDS reliability. The aim in the first theme is to compare numerous modern metaheuristics, in- cluding several multi-objective evolutionary algorithms, an estimation of distribution algorithm and a recent hyperheuristic named AMALGAM (an evolutionary framework for the simulta- neous incorporation of multiple metaheuristics applied here for the first time to a real-world problem), in order to determine which approach is most capable with respect to WDS design optimisation. Several novel metaheuristics are developed, as well as a number of new variants of existing algorithms, so that a total of twenty-three algorithms were compared. Testing with respect to eight small-to-large-sized WDS benchmarks from the literature reveals that the four top-performing algorithms are mutually non-dominated with respect to the vari- ous performance metrics. These algorithms are NSGA-II, TAMALGAMJndu, TAMALGAMndu and AMALGAMSndp (the last three being novel variants of AMALGAM). However, when these four algorithms are applied to the design of a very large real-world benchmark, the AMALGAM paradigm outperforms NSGA-II convincingly, with AMALGAMSndp exhibiting the best perfor- mance overall. As part of this study, a novel multi-objective greedy algorithm is developed by combining several heuristic design methods from the literature in order to mimic the design strategy of a human engineer. This algorithm functions as a powerful local search. However, it is shown that such an algorithm cannot compete with modern metaheuristics, which employ advanced strategies in order to uncover better solutions with less computational effort. The second central theme involves the comparison of several popular WDS reliability surro- gate measures (namely the Resilience Index, Network Resilience, Flow Entropy, and a novel mixed surrogate measure) in terms of their ability to produce designs that are robust against pipe failure and water demand variation. This is the first systematic study on a number of WDS benchmarks in which regression analysis is used to compare reliability surrogate measures with probabilistic reliability typically derived via simulation, and failure reliability calculated by considering all single-pipe failure events, with both reliability types quantified by means of average demand satisfaction. Although no single measure consistently outperforms the others, it is shown that using the Resilience Index and Network Resilience yields designs that achieve a better positive correlation with both probabilistic and failure reliability, and while the Mixed Surrogate measure shows some promise, using Flow Entropy on its own as a quantifier of re- liability should be avoided. Network Resilience is identified as being a superior predictor of failure reliability, and also having the desirable property of supplying designs with fewer and less severe size discontinuities between adjacent pipes. For this reason, it is recommended as the surrogate measure of choice for practical application towards design in the WDS industry. AMALGAMSndp is also applied to the design of a real South African WDS design case study in Gauteng Province, achieving savings of millions of Rands as well as significant reliability improvements on a preliminary engineered design by a consulting engineering firm. / AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Die ontwerp van waterverspreidingsnetwerke (WVNe) behels die soeke na ’n aanvaarbare afruiling tussen koste-minimering en die maksimering van ’n aantal netwerkvoordele, soos hidroliese betroubaarheid en surpluskapasiteit. Die primere ontwerpsprobleem behels ’n koste-doeltreffende spesifikasie van ’n netwerkuitleg en pypgroottes (wat tipies in ’n diskrete aantal kommersiele deursnedes beskikbaar is) wat aan gebruikersaanvraag binne sekere drukspesifikasies voldoen. Die probleem kan uitgebrei word om die ontwerp van verdere WVN-komponente, soos op- gaardamme, opgaartenks, pompe en kleppe in ag te neem. Praktiese WVN-ontwerpe moet ook voorsiening maak vir onsekerheid van aanvraag, genoegsame surpluskapsiteit vir toekom- stige netwerkuitbreidings en die hidroliese betroubaarheid van die netwerk onder verskillende aanvraag- en potensiele falingsvoorwaardes. ’n Omvattende literatuurstudie word oor eksakte en benaderde oplossingsbenaderings tot enkel- doelwit (minimum koste) WVN-ontwerpsoptimering gedoen. Sentrale temas wat by heden- daagse WVN-ontwerpsparadigmas ingesluit behoort te word (soos aanvraagvooruitskatting, die kwantifisering van betroubaarheid, tenkontwerp en netwerkuitleg), word uitgelig. ’n Aantal basiese konsepte in meerdoelige evolusionˆere optimering (soos ’n generiese probleemformulering, werkverrigtingsmaatstawwe, vergelykende toetsingstrategie¨e, en sinvolle klasse metaheuristieke vir WVN-ontwerp) word ook aangeraak. Die twee sentrale temas in hierdie proefskrif is meerdoelige WVN-ontwerpsoptimering deur mid- del van metaheuristieke, en ’n kritiese evaluering van verskeie surrogaatmaatstawwe vir die kwantifisering van netwerkbetroubaarheid. Die doel in die eerste tema is om ’n aantal moderne metaheuristieke, insluitend verskeie meerdoelige evolusionere algoritmes en die onlangse hiper- heuristiek AMALGAM (’n evolusionere raamwerk vir die gelyktydige insluiting van ’n aantal metaheuristieke wat hier vir die eerste keer op ’n praktiese probleem toegepas word), met mekaar te vergelyk om sodoende ’n ideale benadering tot WVN-ontwerpoptimering te identi- fiseer. Verskeie nuwe metaheuristieke sowel as ’n aantal nuwe variasies op bestaande algoritmes word ontwikkel, sodat drie en twintig algoritmes in totaal met mekaar vergelyk word. Toetse aan die hand van agt klein- tot mediumgrootteWVN-toetsprobleme uit die literatuur dui daarop dat die vier top algoritmes mekaar onderling ten opsigte van verskeie werkverrigtings- maatstawwe domineer. Hierdie algoritmes is NSGA-II, TAMALGAMJndu, TAMALGAMndu en AMALGAMSndp, waarvan laasgenoemde drie nuwe variasies op AMALGAM is. Wanneer hierdie vier algoritmes egter vir die ontwerp van ’n groot WVN-toetsprobleem ingespan word, oortref die AMALGAM-paradigma die NSGA-II oortui-gend, en lewer AMALGAMSndp die beste resultate. As deel van hierdie studie is ’n nuwe meerdoelige gulsige algoritme ontwerp wat verskeie heuristiese ontwerpsmetodologiee uit die literatuur kombineer om sodoende die on- twerpstrategie van ’n ingenieur na te boots. Hierdie algoritme funksioneer as ’n kragtige lokale soekprosedure, maar daar word aangetoon dat die algoritme nie met moderne metaheuristieke, wat gevorderde soekstrategie¨e inspan om beter oplossings met minder berekeningsmoeite daar te stel, kan meeding nie. Die tweede sentrale tema behels die vergelyking van ’n aantal gewilde surrogaatmaatstawwe vir die kwantifisering van WVN-betroubaarheid (naamlik die elastisiteitsindeks, netwerkelastisiteit, vloei-entropie en ’n gemengde surrogaatmaatstaf ) in terme van die mate waartoe hul gebruik kan word om WVNe te identifiseer wat robuust is ten opsigte van pypfaling en variasie in aanvraag. Hierdie proefskrif bevat die eerste sistematiese vergelyking deur middel van regressie-analise van ’n aantal surrogaatmaatstawwe vir die kwantifisering van WVN-betroubaarheid en stogastiese betroubaarheid (wat tipies via simulasie bepaal word) in terme van ’n aantal toetsprobleme in die literatuur. Alhoewel geen enkele maatstaf as die beste na vore tree nie, word daar getoon dat gebruik van die elastisiteitsindeks en netwerkelastisiteit lei na WNV-ontwerpe met ’n groter positiewe korrelasie ten opsigte van beide stogastiese betroubaarheid en falingsbetroubaarheid. Verder toon die gebruik van die gemengde surrogaatmaatstaf potensiaal, maar die gebruik van vloei-entropie op sy eie as kwantifiseerder van betroubaarheid behoort vermy te word. Netwerkelastisiteit word as ’n hoe-gehalte indikator van falingsbetroubaarheid geidentifiseer en het ook die eienskap dat dit daartoe instaat is om ontwerpe met ’n kleiner aantal diskontinuiteite sowel as van ’n minder ekstreme graad van diskontinuiteite tussen deursnedes van aangrensende pype daar te stel. Om hierdie rede word netwerkelastisiteit as die surogaatmaatstaf van voorkeur aanbeveel vir toepassings van WVN-ontwerpe in die praktyk. AMALGAM word ook ten opsigte van ’n werklike Suid-Afrikaanse WVN-ontwerp gevallestudie in Gauteng toegepas. Hierdie toepassing lei na die besparing van miljoene rande asook noe- menswaardige verbeterings in terme van netwerkbetroubaarheid in vergeleke met ’n aanvanklike ingenieursontwerp deur ’n konsultasiefirma.

With increasing global change pressures such as urbanization and climate change, cities of the future will experience difficulties in efficiently managing scarcer and less reliable water resources. However, projections of future global change pressures are plagued with uncertainties. This increases the difficulty in developing urban water systems that are adaptable to future uncertainty. A major component of an urban water system is the distribution system, which constitutes approximately 80-85% of the total cost of the water supply system (Swamee and Sharma, 2008). Traditionally, water distribution systems (WDS) are designed using deterministic assumptions of main model input variables such as water availability and water demand. However, these deterministic assumptions are no longer valid due to the inherent uncertainties associated with them. Hence, a new design approach is required, one that recognizes these inherent uncertainties and develops more adaptable and flexible systems capable of using their active capacity to act or respond to future alterations in a timely, performance-efficient, and cost-effective manner. This study develops a framework for the design of flexible WDS that are adaptable to new, different, or changing requirements. The framework consists of two main parts. The first part consists of several components that are important in the pre and post--processing of the least-cost design methodology of a flexible WDS. These components include: the description of uncertainties affecting WDS design, identification of potential flexibility options for WDS, generation of flexibility through optimization, and a method for assessing of flexibility. For assessment a suite of performance metrics is developed that reflect the degree of flexibility of a distribution system. These metrics focus on the capability of the WDS to respond and react to future changes. The uncertainties description focuses on the spatial and temporal variation of future demand. The second part consists of two optimization models for the design of centralized and decentralized WDS respectively. The first model generates flexible, staged development plans for the incremental growth of a centralized WDS. The second model supports the development of clustered/decentralized WDS. It is argued that these clustered systems promote flexibility as they provide internal degrees of freedom, allowing many different combinations of distribution systems to be considered. For both models a unique genetic algorithm based flexibility optimization (GAFO) model was developed that maximizes the flexibility of a WDS at the least cost. The efficacy of the developed framework and tools are demonstrated through two case study applications on real networks in Uganda. The first application looks at the design of a centralized WDS in Mbale, a small town in Eastern Uganda. Results from this application indicate that the flexibility framework is able to generate a more flexible design of the centralized system that is 4% - 50% less expensive than a conventionally designed system when compared against several future scenarios. In addition, this application highlights that the flexible design has a lower regret under different scenarios when compared to the conventionally designed system (a difference of 11.2m3/US$). The second application analyzes the design of a decentralized network in the town of Aura, a small town in Northern Uganda. A comparison of a decentralized system to a centralized system is performed, and the results indicate that the decentralized system is 24% - 34% less expensive and that these cost savings are associated with the ability of the decentralized system to be staged in a way that traces the urban growth trajectory more closely. The decentralized clustered WDS also has a lower regret (a difference of 17.7m3/US$) associated with the potential future conditions in comparison with the conventionally centralized system and hence is more flexible.

This study gives a description about the development of a computer model, RealPipe, which relates genetic algorithm (GA) to the well known problem of least-cost design of water distribution network. GA methodology is an evolutionary process, basically imitating evolution process of nature. GA is essentially an efficient search method basically for nonlinear optimization cases. The genetic operations take place within the population of chromosomes. By means of various operators, the genetic knowledge in chromosomes change continuously and the success of the population progressively increases as a result of these operations. GA optimization is also well suited for optimization of water distribution systems, especially large and complex systems. The primary objective of this study is optimization of a water distribution network by GA. GA operations are realized on a special program developed by the author called RealPipe. RealPipe optimizes given water network distribution systems by considering capital cost of pipes only. Five operators are involved in the program algorithm. These operators are generation, selection, elitism, crossover and mutation. Optimum population size is found to be between 30-70 depending on the size of the network (i.e. pipe number) and number of commercially available pipe size. Elitism rate should be around 10 percent. Mutation rate should be selected around 1-5 percent depending again on the size of the network. Multipoint crossover and higher rates are advisable. Also pressure penalty parameters are found to be much important than velocity parameters. Below pressure penalty parameter is the most important one and should be roughly 100 times higher than the other. Two known networks of the literature are examined using RealPipe and expected results are achieved. N8.3 network which is located in the northern side of Ankara is the case study. Total cost achieved by RealPipe is 16.74 percent lower than the cost of the existing network / it should be noted that the solution provided by RealPipe is hydraulically improved.

Water crises are predicted to be amongst the risks of highest concern for the next ten years, due to availability, accessibility, quality and management issues. Knowledge of the microbial communities indigenous to drinking water is essential for treatment and distribution process control, risk assessment and infrastructure design. Drinking water distribution systems (DWDSs) ideally should deliver to the consumer water of the same microbial quality as that leaving a treatment plant (“biologically stable” according to WHO). At the start of this Ph.D. program water microbiology comprised conventional culturedependent methods, and no studies were available on microbial communities from source to tap. A method combining 16S rRNA gene pyrosequencing with flow cytometry was developed to accurately detect, characterize, and enumerate the microorganisms found in a water sample. Studies were conducted in seven fullscale Dutch DWDSs which transport low-AOC water without disinfectant residuals, produced from fresh water applying conventional treatment. Full-scale studies were also conducted at the desalination plant and DWDS of KAUST, Saudi Arabia where drinking water is produced from seawater applying RO membrane treatment and then transported with chlorine residual. Furthermore, biological stability was evaluated in a wastewater reuse application in the Netherlands. When low-AOC water was distributed without disinfectant residuals, greater bacterial richness was detected in the networks, however, temporal and spatial variations in the bacterial community were insignificant and a substantial fraction of the microbiome was still shared between the treated and transported water. This shared fraction was lower in the system transporting water with chlorine residual, where the eukaryotic community changed with residence time. The core microbiome was characterized and dominant members varied between the two systems. Biofilm and deposit-associated communities were found to drive tap water microbiology regardless of water source and treatment scheme. Network flushing was found to be a simple method to assess water microbiology. Biological stability was not associated with safety. The biological stability concept needs to be revised and quantified. Further research is needed to understand microbial functions and processes, how water communities affect the human microbiome, and what the “drinking” water microbiome is like in undeveloped countries. / The research presented in this doctoral dissertation was financially supported by and conducted in collaboration with Delft University of Technology (TU Delft) and Evides Waterbedrijf in the Netherlands.

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Thesis (MScEng)--Stellenbosch University, 2014. / ENGLISH ABSTRACT: The increased water demand to be supplied by municipal water distribution systems, and subsequent increased storage period of reserve water, may have implications with regards to water ageing and subsequently may have an impact on health and safety. Current master planning design standards could have a negative effect on water residence time. The decay of the disinfectant potential is a function of the residence time in the distribution system. The objective of this study is to identify and measure existing systems to optimally increase water quality in a distribution system while supplying an increase in demand, dealing with the deterioration of pipe infrastructure and the introduction of alternative water sources. To do this, one must understand the dynamics of water networks and the parameters that affect water quality. The foundation of a water quality model is based on the construction of an accurate hydraulic model. To identify and measure these systems, one must understand the aspects of water purification and the techniques used to achieve water standards in a distribution system. These techniques and standards play a huge role in the prediction of water quality. In this paper the fundamentals and techniques used to determine and measure such a model are discussed. Consequently, additional design parameters to assess water quality must be incorporated into current master planning practice to optimally design water networks. These models are used to determine the appropriate levels of disinfectant at strategic locations in a system. To illustrate these design parameters and systems currently used in practice, a case study involving Umgeni Water (UW) and EThekwini municipality (EWS) was used to determine the most suitable disinfectant strategy for a municipality’s distribution system. Future scenarios and the impact of disinfectant mixing and increased residence time of the water in the system were also determined. The use of this water quality model in a distribution system will ultimately provide a sustainable platform for a risk monitoring procedure. / AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Die verhoogde aanvraag na water in munisipale voorsieningstelsels, en die daaropvolgende verhoogde stoortydperk van reserwe water, kan implikasies inhou met betrekking tot water veroudering waarna dit ‘n impak op gesondheid en veiligheid kan hê. Huidige meesterbeplanning ontwerpstandaarde kan 'n noemenswaardige uitwerking op water retensietyd hê, veral omdat chloor se vervaltyd op sy beurt 'n funksie van water retensietyd is. Die doel van hierdie studie is om 'n prosedure te identifiseer om watergehalte optimaal te verhoog in 'n waterverspreidingstelsel, terwyl die toename in water aanvraag voortduur. Om dit te kan doen moet die dinamika van water netwerke en die parameters wat die gehalte van water beïnvloed, bestudeer word. Die opstel van 'n waterkwaliteit model is gebaseer op die bou van 'n akkurate hidrouliese model. Om uiteindelik die ontwerp van 'n waterkwaliteit oplossing suksevol uit te voer, moet 'n mens al die aspekte van watersuiwering en die tegnieke wat gebruik word om waterstandaarde te handhaaf in 'n verspreidingstelsel verstaan. In hierdie verslag word die beginsels en tegnieke wat gebruik word om so 'n model op te stel, bespreek. Bykomende waterkwaliteit ontwerpparameters moet by huidige meesterbeplanning gevoeg word om waternetwerke optimaal te ontwerp. Hierdie modelle word gebruik om die geskikte vlakke van ontsmettingsmiddel op strategiese plekke in 'n stelsel te bepaal. 'n Gevallestudie van Umgeni Water (UW) en eThekwini-munisipaliteit (EWS) is gebruik om die mees geskikte ontsmettingsmiddel strategie vir 'n munisipaliteit se verspreiding te illustreer. Toekomstige scenario's en die impak van ontsmettingsmiddelvermenging en verhoogde retensietyd van die water in die stelsel sal ook bepaal kan word. Die gebruik van hierdie gehalte-watermodel in 'n verspreidingstelsel sal uiteindelik 'n volhoubare platform vir 'n risiko moniteringstelsel inhou.