<p dir="ltr">Interactions between drinking water quality and delivery systems, pipe materials, and attitudes</p>

This research is motivated by an issue frequently encountered in environmental water quality evaluation. Many times, the sample size of water monitoring data is too small to have adequate power. Here, we present a Bayesian power prior approach by incorporating the current data and historical data and/or the data collected at neighboring stations to make stronger statistical inferences on the parameters of interest. The elicitation of power prior distributions is based on the availability of historical data, and is realized by raising the likelihood function of the historical data to a fractional power. The power prior Bayesian analysis has been proven to be a useful class of informative priors in Bayesian inference. In this dissertation, we propose a modified approach to constructing the joint power prior distribution for the parameter of interest and the power parameter. The power parameter, in this modified approach, quantifies the heterogeneity between current and historical data automatically, and hence controls the influence of historical data on the current study in a sensible way. In addition, the modified power prior needs little to ensure its propriety. The properties of the modified power prior and its posterior distribution are examined for the Bernoulli and normal populations. The modified and the original power prior approaches are compared empirically in terms of the mean squared error (MSE) of parameter estimates as well as the behavior of the power parameter. Furthermore, the extension of the modified power prior to multiple historical data sets is discussed, followed by its comparison with the random effects model. Several sets of water quality data are studied in this dissertation to illustrate the implementation of the modified power prior approach with normal and Bernoulli models. Since the power prior method uses information from sources other than current data, it has advantages in terms of power and estimation precision for decisions with small sample sizes, relative to methods that ignore prior information. / Ph. D.

Water is one of, if not the most, valued natural resource on the planet. Over the years, the quality of Earth's waters has deteriorated primarily due to pollution. All ecosystems are highly dependent on this resource, which makes it very important to protect water from unnecessary pollution. One ecosystem that has been greatly affected by pollution, mainly as a result from runoff of fertilizers used by farmers in the region, has been the Everglades located in south Florida. As a result, the protection and desire to restore this ecosystem has become the subject for litigation in recent years. The Miccosukee Tribe of Indians is the chief litigant for the pursuit for improved water quality due to their dependence on the water of the Everglades for survival. This thesis will examine the Everglades in its entirety by providing a history of the establishment of the Everglades as well as a description of the Everglades ecosystem and the water quality. The thesis will then introduce the Miccosukee Tribe of Indians and how they have become dependent on the Everglades ecosystem. Finally, the thesis will examine the involvement of the state and federal government in the issue of water quality through various agencies and pieces of legislation. The purpose of this thesis is to then analyze several cases in which the Miccosukee Tribe has been an interested party and sought to achieve improvements for the water quality of the Everglades. In addition to the original cases, the thesis will provide subsequent case history through its most current status. The thesis will explain whether the Miccosukee Tribe has been successful in its attempt to provide strict standards for water quality and hold those in violation of these standards responsible for their actions.

published_or_final_version / Biological Sciences / Doctoral / Doctor of Philosophy

This research aims to integrate mathematical water quality models with Bayesian inference techniques for obtaining effective model calibration and rigorous assessment of the uncertainty underlying model predictions. The first part of my work combines a Bayesian calibration framework with a complex biogeochemical model to reproduce oligo-, meso- and eutrophic lake conditions. The model accurately describes the observed patterns and also provides realistic estimates of predictive uncertainty for water quality variables. The Bayesian estimations are also used for appraising the exceedance frequency and confidence of compliance of different water quality criteria. The second part introduces a Bayesian hierarchical framework (BHF) for calibrating eutrophication models at multiple systems (or sites of the same system). The models calibrated under the BHF provided accurate system representations for all the scenarios examined. The BHF allows overcoming problems of insufficient local data by “borrowing strength” from well-studied sites. Both frameworks can facilitate environmental management decisions.

Apesar dos avanços nos índices de coleta e tratamento de esgotos no Estado de São Paulo, ainda existem incertezas sobre a efetividade dos sistemas de tratamento existentes, uma vez que são escassas as informações sobre o desempenho das ETEs em operação no país. Por meio da aquisição e análise de dados de desempenho do sistema, é possível a avaliação do cumprimento da legislação ambiental e a melhoria das condições operacionais, reduzindo, efetivamente, o impacto do lançamento sobre os recursos hídricos. Nesse sentido, o presente trabalho teve como objetivo avaliar estatisticamente o desempenho de lagoas de estabilização - tecnologia de tratamento mais utilizada no Estado de São Paulo - localizadas na UGRHI 12 - Baixo Pardo/Grande, todas com vazão de projeto inferior a 300 L/s, utilizando dados de automonitoramento fornecidos pelos prestadores de serviço. A avaliação compreendeu um período de 10 anos (2005 a 2014) e abrangeu desde os projetos das lagoas até a caracterização dos dados afluentes e efluentes das ETEs, incluindo também o impacto do lançamento dos esgotos tratados nos corpos receptores e a qualidade dos corpos d\'água em escala de bacia hidrográfica, utilizando os dados da rede de monitoramento da CETESB na UGRHI 12. O desempenho das ETEs foi avaliado quanto aos parâmetros DBO, DQO, CT, E. coli, SS, N-amoniacal e P-total, considerando tanto as faixas típicas apontadas na literatura, como o atendimento aos padrões de lançamento e qualidade. Os dados disponibilizados foram bastante heterogêneos, apresentando, em sua maioria, periodicidades de amostragem variáveis e interrupções no monitoramento, o que impediu, em alguns casos, a realização de uma análise mais consistente. As concentrações afluentes de matéria orgânica foram mais elevadas do que os valores usuais expressos na literatura, sendo a causa mais provável o baixo consumo de água aliado ao tipo de amostragem praticado (amostragem simples). De maneira geral, o desempenho das lagoas, considerando as eficiências médias de remoção de DBO e DQO, ficou dentro do esperado, o que não foi suficiente, contudo, para garantir percentuais elevados de conformidade com a legislação do estado de São Paulo, os quais resultaram abaixo de 80% na maioria das ETEs. Quanto às concentrações nos esgotos tratados, o desempenho ficou aquém do esperado, o que implicou no lançamento de efluentes com concentrações elevadas de matéria orgânica, embora de acordo com os padrões de lançamento pelo critério da eficiência de remoção. A avaliação do corpo receptor mostrou que, mesmo se tratando de vazões relativamente baixas, tais lançamentos foram capazes de impactar os cursos d\'água, notadamente aqueles com baixas razões de diluição. Finalmente, em escala de bacia hidrográfica, verificou-se que, nos corpos d\'água da UGRHI 12, ainda permanecem percentuais elevados de desconformidade para P-total e E. coli, contribuindo para esse cenário tanto as fontes de poluição pontuais como as difusas. / Despite advances in wastewater collection and treatment indicators in São Paulo state, there are still uncertainties about the effectiveness of existing treatment systems, since they is little information on the performance of WTPs operating in the country. Throughout the acquisition and analysis of system performance data, it is possible to evaluate the compliance with environmental legislation and improve operating conditions, effectively reducing the impact of the discharge on water resources. In this sense, the present study aimed to evaluate statistically the performance of stabilization ponds - wastewater treatment technology most widely used in São Paulo state - located in UGRHI 12 - Baixo Pardo/Grande, all of them with design flow rates below 300 L/s, using self-monitoring data given by the service providers. The evaluation comprised a period of 10 years (2005-2014), including from the projects of the ponds to the characterization of WTPs influent and effluent data, also incorporating the impact of treated wastewater release in receiving bodies and the quality of water bodies in watershed scale, using the data from CETESB\'s monitoring network in UGRHI 12. The performance of the WTPs was evaluated for BOD, COD, total coliforms, E. coli, suspended solids, ammonia and total phosphorus, considering the typical ranges mentioned in the literature and compliance with discharge and water quality standards. The provided data were quite heterogeneous, most of them presenting variable sampling periodicities and interruptions in monitoring, sometimes hindering a more consistent analysis. The influent\'s concentrations of organic matter were higher than the usual values expressed in the literature, which was most likely caused by low water consumption combined with the type of sampling practiced (single sampling). In general, the ponds\' performance, considering the average BOD and COD removal efficiencies, was as expected, however, such values weren\'t enough to ensure high percentage of compliance with São Paulo\'s environmental legislation, since the percentages were below 80% in most WTPs. Regarding the concentrations in treated wastewater, the performance was less than expected, which resulted in the discharge of effluents with high concentrations of organic matter, even though they were in compliance with discharge standards by the removal efficiency criterion. The evaluation of the receiving stream showed that, even consisting of relatively low flow rates discharges, such releases were able to impact the water bodies, especially those with low dilution ratio. Finally, in watershed scale, it was found that, in UGRHI 12 water bodies, there are still high percentages of non-conformity for total phosphorus and E. coli, contributing to this scenario both point and non-point sources of pollution.

This research aims to integrate mathematical water quality models with Bayesian inference techniques for obtaining effective model calibration and rigorous assessment of the uncertainty underlying model predictions. The first part of my work combines a Bayesian calibration framework with a complex biogeochemical model to reproduce oligo-, meso- and eutrophic lake conditions. The model accurately describes the observed patterns and also provides realistic estimates of predictive uncertainty for water quality variables. The Bayesian estimations are also used for appraising the exceedance frequency and confidence of compliance of different water quality criteria. The second part introduces a Bayesian hierarchical framework (BHF) for calibrating eutrophication models at multiple systems (or sites of the same system). The models calibrated under the BHF provided accurate system representations for all the scenarios examined. The BHF allows overcoming problems of insufficient local data by “borrowing strength” from well-studied sites. Both frameworks can facilitate environmental management decisions.

Apesar dos avanços nos índices de coleta e tratamento de esgotos no Estado de São Paulo, ainda existem incertezas sobre a efetividade dos sistemas de tratamento existentes, uma vez que são escassas as informações sobre o desempenho das ETEs em operação no país. Por meio da aquisição e análise de dados de desempenho do sistema, é possível a avaliação do cumprimento da legislação ambiental e a melhoria das condições operacionais, reduzindo, efetivamente, o impacto do lançamento sobre os recursos hídricos. Nesse sentido, o presente trabalho teve como objetivo avaliar estatisticamente o desempenho de lagoas de estabilização - tecnologia de tratamento mais utilizada no Estado de São Paulo - localizadas na UGRHI 12 - Baixo Pardo/Grande, todas com vazão de projeto inferior a 300 L/s, utilizando dados de automonitoramento fornecidos pelos prestadores de serviço. A avaliação compreendeu um período de 10 anos (2005 a 2014) e abrangeu desde os projetos das lagoas até a caracterização dos dados afluentes e efluentes das ETEs, incluindo também o impacto do lançamento dos esgotos tratados nos corpos receptores e a qualidade dos corpos d\'água em escala de bacia hidrográfica, utilizando os dados da rede de monitoramento da CETESB na UGRHI 12. O desempenho das ETEs foi avaliado quanto aos parâmetros DBO, DQO, CT, E. coli, SS, N-amoniacal e P-total, considerando tanto as faixas típicas apontadas na literatura, como o atendimento aos padrões de lançamento e qualidade. Os dados disponibilizados foram bastante heterogêneos, apresentando, em sua maioria, periodicidades de amostragem variáveis e interrupções no monitoramento, o que impediu, em alguns casos, a realização de uma análise mais consistente. As concentrações afluentes de matéria orgânica foram mais elevadas do que os valores usuais expressos na literatura, sendo a causa mais provável o baixo consumo de água aliado ao tipo de amostragem praticado (amostragem simples). De maneira geral, o desempenho das lagoas, considerando as eficiências médias de remoção de DBO e DQO, ficou dentro do esperado, o que não foi suficiente, contudo, para garantir percentuais elevados de conformidade com a legislação do estado de São Paulo, os quais resultaram abaixo de 80% na maioria das ETEs. Quanto às concentrações nos esgotos tratados, o desempenho ficou aquém do esperado, o que implicou no lançamento de efluentes com concentrações elevadas de matéria orgânica, embora de acordo com os padrões de lançamento pelo critério da eficiência de remoção. A avaliação do corpo receptor mostrou que, mesmo se tratando de vazões relativamente baixas, tais lançamentos foram capazes de impactar os cursos d\'água, notadamente aqueles com baixas razões de diluição. Finalmente, em escala de bacia hidrográfica, verificou-se que, nos corpos d\'água da UGRHI 12, ainda permanecem percentuais elevados de desconformidade para P-total e E. coli, contribuindo para esse cenário tanto as fontes de poluição pontuais como as difusas. / Despite advances in wastewater collection and treatment indicators in São Paulo state, there are still uncertainties about the effectiveness of existing treatment systems, since they is little information on the performance of WTPs operating in the country. Throughout the acquisition and analysis of system performance data, it is possible to evaluate the compliance with environmental legislation and improve operating conditions, effectively reducing the impact of the discharge on water resources. In this sense, the present study aimed to evaluate statistically the performance of stabilization ponds - wastewater treatment technology most widely used in São Paulo state - located in UGRHI 12 - Baixo Pardo/Grande, all of them with design flow rates below 300 L/s, using self-monitoring data given by the service providers. The evaluation comprised a period of 10 years (2005-2014), including from the projects of the ponds to the characterization of WTPs influent and effluent data, also incorporating the impact of treated wastewater release in receiving bodies and the quality of water bodies in watershed scale, using the data from CETESB\'s monitoring network in UGRHI 12. The performance of the WTPs was evaluated for BOD, COD, total coliforms, E. coli, suspended solids, ammonia and total phosphorus, considering the typical ranges mentioned in the literature and compliance with discharge and water quality standards. The provided data were quite heterogeneous, most of them presenting variable sampling periodicities and interruptions in monitoring, sometimes hindering a more consistent analysis. The influent\'s concentrations of organic matter were higher than the usual values expressed in the literature, which was most likely caused by low water consumption combined with the type of sampling practiced (single sampling). In general, the ponds\' performance, considering the average BOD and COD removal efficiencies, was as expected, however, such values weren\'t enough to ensure high percentage of compliance with São Paulo\'s environmental legislation, since the percentages were below 80% in most WTPs. Regarding the concentrations in treated wastewater, the performance was less than expected, which resulted in the discharge of effluents with high concentrations of organic matter, even though they were in compliance with discharge standards by the removal efficiency criterion. The evaluation of the receiving stream showed that, even consisting of relatively low flow rates discharges, such releases were able to impact the water bodies, especially those with low dilution ratio. Finally, in watershed scale, it was found that, in UGRHI 12 water bodies, there are still high percentages of non-conformity for total phosphorus and E. coli, contributing to this scenario both point and non-point sources of pollution.

A survey of chemical and bacteriological water quality in the Grand Canyon was undertaken to assess possible health hazards to river travelers. The water quality of the main Colorado River channel is relatively stable with only slight increases in ionic concentration and bacteriological load with respect to distance from Lee Ferry and time over the summer season. The tributary streams show extreme temporal variability in chemical water quality and bacteriological contamination as a result of the summer rain and flood patterns in the tributary canyons. These side streams pose a definite health hazard to unwary river travelers. More extensive sampling is called for to determine the sources of this contamination and to protect the quality of the Grand Canyon experience.

From the Proceedings of the 1974 Meetings of the Arizona Section - American Water Resources Assn. and the Hydrology Section - Arizona Academy of Science - April 19-20, 1974, Flagstaff, Arizona / The 14.6 miles of the Colorado River bounded by Parker Dam and Headgate Rock Dam has been referred to as the Parker Strip. This river reach has become a high use recreation area during the past decade with 4,000 permanent residents and as many as 120,000 water enthusiasts on long weekends. The riparian area of the river is heavily clustered with mobile homes, marinas and public beaches. The means of sewage disposal is exclusively via septic tanks. Recent surveys by the Environmental Protection Agency, Arizona State Department of Public Health and the University of Arizona have localized surface water bacteria levels that may indicate a developing groundwater problem. The geohydrology of the area indicates that the septic tanks are located in Post -Pliocene Colorado River deposits. The deposits are quite thin and relatively narrow. Since the deposits are locally derived sands and gravels, the horizontal hydraulic conductivities are such that a relatively short flow time to the river may result. Intensive evaluation of the degradation of the water quality in these deposits is needed to determine if the ground water supply was jeopardized by septic tank systems.