Two perspectives are debated in current United States water policy model development. One perspective calls for policy based on normative values, such as an environmental ethic. The second perspective calls for policy based on empirical, quantifiable values, for instance, economic benefits and costs. This theoretical debate arises from differing assumptions about what is problematic in contemporary water policy, and in turn gives rise to many water policy models. Developing such models ostensibly provides frameworks useful for developing real-world water policies. This paper proposes that these water policy models are not in fact useful frameworks for policy applications because the models do not accurately account for the actual circumstances confronting water policy makers. In order to illustrate this hypothesis, a comparison of two water policy models with a set of real-world policy circumstances is made here. The two models, each representing one of the dominant theoretical perspectives, are taken from David Lewis Feldman's Water resources manaiement: In search of an environmental ethic (1991) and Peter Rogers' America's water: Federal roles and responsibilities (1993). Feldman's model was selected to represent the normative perspective, and Rogers' model is selected to represent the empirical perspective. The real-world water policy circumstances selected for this study are those of Malheur Lake Basin, Oregon. This basin was selected because it provides the opportunity to consider a range of water policy issues and problems. This study shows that these two models do not offer adequate frameworks for applications. If water policy models are to provide useful frameworks for applications, model development must more closely consider actual cases.

Water management plans are typically developed using historical data records and historical return periods for extreme events, such as floods or droughts. Since these analyses of return periods typically assume a certain degree of stationarity (constant mean, standard deviation, distribution) in hydrologic variables, the potential future impacts of climate change are excluded. In developing water management plans, predicted changes to climate variables should be considered to evaluate the degree of non-stationarity that may exist in the future. In this way, regions most sensitive to climate change can be identified and managed appropriately. This study performed such a task by using predicted climate data that were downscaled from general circulation models (GCM) by regional climate models (RCM) to compare climate variables in the historical period of 1971-1998 to the future period of 2041-2068. The study evaluated the precipitation and minimum/maximum temperature data from five different GCM/RCM combinations: 1) CCSM/CRCM; 2) CCSM/WRFG; 3) CGCM3/CRCM; 4) CGCM3/WRFG; and 5) HadCM3/HRM3. The five datasets were then used to calculate drought indices and drive a calibrated PRMS model of the Molalla Pudding river basin in order to evaluate changes in droughts and streamflow. The predicted changes in droughts and streamflow were then evaluated with social/economic factors for twelve cities in the Molalla Pudding river basin by two different water vulnerability indices. The index values were used to determine a rank for each city that indicated its relative vulnerability to water scarcity as compared to the other cities. In this study, three out of the five datasets predicted increased precipitation (+97-115 mm/year) over the Molalla Pudding basin and the two datasets using the CCSM GCM data predicted either no change or slightly decreased precipitation (-60 mm/year) over the Molalla Pudding basin in 2041-2068. All datasets predicted increased minimum and maximum average temperature of +1.5°C and +1.4°C respectively, and all datasets displayed increasing trends in temperature. The drought indices predicted fewer drought events (-2.4 events) over 2041-2068 with no change in duration, and no change to the number of serious drought events over 2041-2068 but with increased durations (+1.9 months). Results from the hydrologic modeling predicted increased streamflow (+4-249 cfs) in four out of the five future datasets. Using the predicted changes in hydrologic variables and social/economic census data from 2000, two types of water vulnerability indices were calculated for the twelve cities of interest. The results suggested that cities in the western portion of the basin would be more susceptible to current and future water vulnerability due to high irrigation demands for water and high social vulnerability as determined by minority populations and higher poverty, while the small cities with less dependence on agriculture would be less vulnerable.

In the Portland, Oregon, metropolitan area, suburban cities such as Hillsboro are projected to grow as people seek affordable housing near a rapidly growing metropolis. This thesis examines the combined impact of'c1imate change and urban development on both neighborhood and municipal scale residential water demand in Hillsboro, Oregon. I use two models, a surface energy balance model, Local-scale Urban Meteorological Parameterization Scheme (LUMPS), and a system dynamics model, CCDomestic, to investigate changes in residential water demand in the 2040s at two distinct spatial scales, the neighborhood and the municipality. I calibrate and validate each model to the reference period and then simulate the future (2030-2059) under three statistically downscaled global climate models and two urban development scenarios. The findings of this study indicate that climate change and urban development will not evenly affect water consumption in neighborhoods across a city. Instead, the current land cover and residential density of a neighborhood exert an important influence on the response. Heavily vegetated neighborhoods exhibit large increases in water demand under urban sprawl and warming scenarios, while neighborhoods dominated by impervious surfaces decrease water consumption under sprawl scenarios and show little change in water consumption under combined sprawl and warming scenarios. At the municipal scale findings suggest that water demand is highly sensitive to urban design and management and that the combination of urban densification and water conservation regulations could mitigate increases in water consumption from population growth and climate change.

Recent water scarcities across the southwestern U.S. with severe effects on the living environment inspire the development of new methodologies to achieve reliable drought forecasting in seasonal scale. Reliable forecast of hydrologic variables, in general, is a preliminary requirement for appropriate planning of water resources and developing effective allocation policies. This study aims at developing new techniques with specific probabilistic features to improve the reliability of hydrologic forecasts, particularly the drought forecasts. The drought status in the future is determined by certain hydrologic variables that are basically estimated by the hydrologic models with rather simple to complex structures. Since the predictions of hydrologic models are prone to different sources of uncertainties, there have been several techniques examined during past several years which generally attempt to combine the predictions of single (multiple) hydrologic models to generate an ensemble of hydrologic forecasts addressing the inherent uncertainties. However, the imperfect structure of hydrologic models usually lead to systematic bias of hydrologic predictions that further appears in the forecast ensembles. This study proposes a post-processing method that is applied to the raw forecast of hydrologic variables and can develop the entire distribution of forecast around the initial single-value prediction. To establish the probability density function (PDF) of the forecast, a group of multivariate distribution functions, the so-called copula functions, are incorporated in the post-processing procedure. The performance of the new post-processing technique is tested on 2500 hypothetical case studies and the streamflow forecast of Sprague River Basin in southern Oregon. Verified by some deterministic and probabilistic verification measures, the method of Quantile Mapping as a traditional post-processing technique cannot generate the qualified forecasts as comparing with the copula-based method. The post-processing technique is then expanded to exclusively study the drought forecasts across the different spatial and temporal scales. In the proposed drought forecasting model, the drought status in the future is evaluated based on the drought status of the past seasons while the correlations between the drought variables of consecutive seasons are preserved by copula functions. The main benefit of the new forecast model is its probabilistic features in analyzing future droughts. It develops conditional probability of drought status in the forecast season and generates the PDF and cumulative distribution function (CDF) of future droughts given the past status. The conditional PDF can return the highest probable drought in the future along with an assessment of the uncertainty around that value. Using the conditional CDF for forecast season, the model can generate the maps of drought status across the basin with particular chance of occurrence in the future. In a different analysis of the conditional CDF developed for the forecast season, the chance of a particular drought in the forecast period can be approximated given the drought status of earlier seasons. The forecast methodology developed in this study shows promising results in hydrologic forecasts and its particular probabilistic features are inspiring for future studies.

The middle Holocene cataclysmic eruption of Mount Mazama blanketed Walker Rim, in south central Oregon, with 270 cm to 300 cm of pumice, causing capture of surface water systems by groundwater, stream relocation, and the formation of biologically diverse fens and seasonal wetlands. The pumice aquifer at Round Meadow, an 8.6 km2 basin, hosts both a fen and seasonally ponded wetlands. The Round Meadow watershed lies within a closed basin between the upper Klamath and Deschutes river basins. As the highest meadow at Walker Rim, it is a relatively well-constrained system to study the effects of hydrological disruption. A water budget was calculated for the basin, hydraulic conductivity was evaluated for the three main sediment layers in the meadow, recharge sources and evaporative trends were studied using stable isotope analysis, and aquifer residence times were estimated using CFC tracer water age dating. Water year 2014 was a drought year and observation of the system under stressed conditions allowed discrimination of four independently functioning components of the hydrogeologic system. These were the meadow, which is by far the largest component in terms of water storage, the fen where iron cementation and up to 1 m of peat holds water in a berm above the meadow, three springs which are sourced from deeper groundwater hosted in the bedrock which underlies the pumice deposit, and the outflow area. In all cases, the aquifer material is pumice, but the influence of the pre-eruption landscape and post-eruption modifications of the aquifer material have resulted in partial isolation of the components. The water budget analysis indicated that the basin lost 44 cm of water storage during WY 2014. Hydraulic conductivity values of 1x10-6, 2x10-2, and 4x10-5 cm/s, were determined for the diatomaceous silt underlying the pumice, the Plinian pumice fall aquifer, and for the diatomaceous silt overlying the pumice, respectively. The pumice is characterized as a perched, weakly confined aquifer and residence times in the pumice are much longer (decades) than for water near the surface of the meadow. Water discharging at the springs is isotopically different (lighter) than either the surface water or groundwater in the pumice aquifer. The fen at Round Meadow appears dependent on seasonal precipitation to recharge water, and responds to fluctuations in annual precipitation. The wetland meadows are volumetrically the main water-storing features at Round Meadow, and these are not homogenous features, but a combination of discrete components.

Oregon is a state with great social and ecological diversity. Unfortunately however, Oregon's water-rich reputation is more rumor than reality. As with many Western states, Oregon struggles with water scarcity, especially during dry summer months. Recent efforts by the state to develop an integrated water resource strategy (IWRS) to manage present and future water demand in Oregon signifies the very real concern that water is no longer as abundant and available as it once was. With the predicted impacts of climate change and population growth, the already-strained water supply will unlikely sustain current water needs. Using a statewide mail survey of 1,537 Oregon residents (2010), a second survey of 390 water stakeholders (2011), and 12 semi-structured interviews conducted in 2010 and 2011 of stakeholders and elected officials this dissertation examined the role of sociodemographic attributes and environmental values pertaining to concern about Oregon’s water supply, climate change, water conservation behaviors, and prioritization of water use. Data analysis (regression analysis) revealed that to varying degrees gender, age, education, income, concern about water scarcity and belief in the New Ecological Paradigm (NEP) proved reliable predicators of concern about that water quantity is a problem, that Oregonians will be personally affected by water scarcity, and personal water conservation behaviors. The dissertation further applies the Institutional and Analysis Development (IAD) framework to the current efforts by the state to create and IWRS. Recommendations for successful application of the IWRS are discussed, specifically use of adaptive governance in basin and sub-basin planning efforts. / Graduation date: 2012