Water is recognised as a key driver for social and economic development in the Zambezi basin. The basin is riparian to eight southern African countries and the transboundary nature of the basin’s water resources can be viewed as an agent of cooperation between the basin countries. It is possible, however, that the same water resource can lead to conflicts between water users. The southern African Water Vision for ‘equitable and sustainable utilisation of water for social, environmental justice and economic benefits for the present and future generations’ calls for an integrated and efficient management of water resources within the basin. Ensuring water and food security in the Zambezi basin is, however, faced with challenges due to high variability in climate and the available water resources. Water resources are under continuous threat from pollution, increased population growth, development and urbanisation as well as global climate change. These factors increase the demand for freshwater resources and have resulted in water being one of the major driving forces for development. The basin is also vulnerable due to lack of adequate financial resources and appropriate water resources infrastructure to enable viable, equitable and sustainable distribution of the water resources. This is in addition to the fact that the basin’s economic mainstay and social well-being are largely dependent on rainfed agriculture. There is also competition among the different water users and this has the potential to generate conflicts, which further hinder the development of water resources in the basin. This thesis has focused on the Zambezi River basin emphasising climate variability and climate change. It is now considered common knowledge that the global climate is changing and that many of the impacts will be felt through water resources. If these predictions are correct then the Zambezi basin is most likely to suffer under such impacts since its economic mainstay is largely determined by the availability of rainfall. It is the belief of this study that in order to ascertain the impacts of climate change, there should be a basis against which this change is evaluated. If we do not know the historical patterns of variability it may be difficult to predict changes in the future climate and in the hydrological resources and it will certainly be difficult to develop appropriate management strategies. Reliable quantitative estimates of water availability are a prerequisite for successful water resource plans. However, such initiatives have been hindered by paucity in data especially in a basin where gauging networks are inadequate and some of them have deteriorated. This is further compounded by shortages in resources, both human and financial, to ensure adequate monitoring. To address the data problems, this study largely relied on global data sets and the CRU TS2.1 rainfall grids were used for a large part of this study. The study starts by assessing the historical variability of rainfall and streamflow in the Zambezi basin and the results are used to inform the prediction of change in the future. Various methods of assessing historical trends were employed and regional drought indices were generated and evaluated against the historical rainfall trends. The study clearly demonstrates that the basin has a high degree of temporal and spatial variability in rainfall and streamflow at inter-annual and multi-decadal scales. The Standardised Precipitation Index, a rainfall based drought index, is used to assess historical drought events in the basin and it is shown that most of the droughts that have occurred were influenced by climatic and hydrological variability. It is concluded, through the evaluation of agricultural maize yields, that the basin’s food security is mostly constrained by the availability of rainfall. Comparing the viability of using a rainfall based index to a soil moisture based index as an agricultural drought indicator, this study concluded that a soil moisture based index is a better indicator since all of the water balance components are considered in the generation of the index. This index presents the actual amount of water available for the plant unlike purely rainfall based indices, that do not account for other components of the water budget that cause water losses. A number of challenges were, however, faced in assessing the variability and historical drought conditions, mainly due to the fact that most parts of the Zambezi basin are ungauged and available data are sparse, short and not continuous (with missing gaps). Hydrological modelling is frequently used to bridge the data gap and to facilitate the quantification of a basin’s hydrology for both gauged and ungauged catchments. The trend has been to use various methods of regionalisation to transfer information from gauged basins, or from basins with adequate physical basin data, to ungauged basins. All this is done to ensure that water resources are accounted for and that the future can be well planned. A number of approaches leading to the evaluation of the basin’s hydrological response to future climate change scenarios are taken. The Pitman rainfall-runoff model has enjoyed wide use as a water resources estimation tool in southern Africa. The model has been calibrated for the Zambezi basin but it should be acknowledged that any hydrological modelling process is characterised by many uncertainties arising from limitations in input data and inherent model structural uncertainty. The calibration process is thus carried out in a manner that embraces some of the uncertainties. Initial ranges of parameter values (maximum and minimum) that incorporate the possible parameter uncertainties are assigned in relation to physical basin properties. These parameter sets are used as input to the uncertainty version of the model to generate behavioural parameter space which is then further modified through manual calibration. The use of parameter ranges initially guided by the basin physical properties generates streamflows that adequately represent the historically observed amounts. This study concludes that the uncertainty framework and the Pitman model perform quite well in the Zambezi basin. Based on assumptions of an intensifying hydrological cycle, climate changes are frequently expected to result in negative impacts on water resources. However, it is important that basin scale assessments are undertaken so that appropriate future management strategies can be developed. To assess the likely changes in the Zambezi basin, the calibrated Pitman model was forced with downscaled and bias corrected GCM data. Three GCMs were used for this study, namely; ECHAM, GFDL and IPSL. The general observation made in this study is that the near future (2046-2065) conditions of the Zambezi basin are expected to remain within the ranges of historically observed variability. The differences between the predictions for the three GCMs are an indication of the uncertainties in the future and it has not been possible to make any firm conclusions about directions of change. It is therefore recommended that future water resources management strategies account for historical patterns of variability, but also for increased uncertainty. Any management strategies that are able to satisfactorily deal with the large variability that is evident from the historical data should be robust enough to account for the near future patterns of water availability predicted by this study. However, the uncertainties in these predictions suggest that improved monitoring systems are required to provide additional data against which future model outputs can be assessed.

South Africa's water resources are unequally distributed over space and time to a high degree and our already stressed water resources situation will only be exacerbated by climate change if current predictions are correct. The potential for conflict over increasingly strained water resources in South Africa is thus very real. In order to deal with these complex problems national legislation is demanding that water resource management be decentralized to the local level where active participation can take place in an integrated manner in accordance with the principles of IWRM. However, administrative and political boundaries rarely match those of catchments as, throughout South Africa, rivers have been employed extensively to delineate administrative and political boundaries at a number of spatial scales. The aim of this research is to determine if rivers act as dividing or uniting features in a socio-political landscape and whether topography will influence their role in this context. By considering sections of the Orange-Senqu River, some of which are employed as political or administrative boundaries, this project furthermore aims to consider the implications of this for catchment management in South Africa. South Africa's proposed form of decentralized water management will have to contend with the effects of different topographies on the way in which rivers are perceived and utilized. The ability of a river to act as a dividing or uniting feature is dependent on a number of interrelated factors, the effects of which are either reduced or enhanced by the topography surrounding the river. Factors such as the state of the resource, levels of utilization, local histories and the employment of the river as a political or administrative border are all factors that determine the extent to which a river unites or divides the communities along its banks, and are all influenced by topography. The implications of this for the management of catchments in South Africa are significant. Local water management institutions will have to contend with a mismatch in borders and in many cases bridge social divides that are deeply entrenched along the banks of rivers. Importantly, the need for a context specific approach to catchment management is highlighted.

This study is non-empirical and is based on the conceptualisations and theoretical foundations that gave rise to the global issue of sustainable development. It also traces the evolution and meaning of sustainable development in the South African socio-cultural context, and shows how the legacies of colonialism and apartheid contributed towards the national policy of sustainable development. This study explains the reasons for the presence (or lack) of sustainable development paradigms in apartheid and post-apartheid South Africa, as well as their implications for the future development of the country as a whole. There is also an analysis of the effects of the liberalisation of the water sector on the citizenry, and how this can disempower millions of poor South Africans. Finally, this study offers solutions for the lack of sustainable use of water in South Africa. Amongst the findings and conclusions are the deleterious effects of employment equity, cut-backs in municipal funding that resulted in the outsourcing of critical services such as water provision, and the deployment of party cadres to local councils. / Human Resources / M.A. (Development Studies)

Southern Africa generally has an arid climate and many hydrologists are predicting an increase in water scarcity over time. This research seeks to understand the implications of this in socio-political terms. The study is cross-disciplinary, examining how policy interventions can be used to solve the problem caused by the interaction between hydrology and demography. The conclusion is that water scarcity is not the actual problem, but is perceived as the problem by policy-makers. Instead, water scarcity is the manifestation of the problem, with root causes being a combination of climate change, population growth and misallocation of water within the economy due to a desire for national self-sufficiency in agriculture. The solution lies in the trade of products with a high water content, also known as 'virtual water'. Research on this specific issue is called for by the White Paper on Water Policy for South Africa. / Political Sciences / M.A. (International Politics)

This study is non-empirical and is based on the conceptualisations and theoretical foundations that gave rise to the global issue of sustainable development. It also traces the evolution and meaning of sustainable development in the South African socio-cultural context, and shows how the legacies of colonialism and apartheid contributed towards the national policy of sustainable development. This study explains the reasons for the presence (or lack) of sustainable development paradigms in apartheid and post-apartheid South Africa, as well as their implications for the future development of the country as a whole. There is also an analysis of the effects of the liberalisation of the water sector on the citizenry, and how this can disempower millions of poor South Africans. Finally, this study offers solutions for the lack of sustainable use of water in South Africa. Amongst the findings and conclusions are the deleterious effects of employment equity, cut-backs in municipal funding that resulted in the outsourcing of critical services such as water provision, and the deployment of party cadres to local councils. / Human Resources / M.A. (Development Studies)

Southern Africa generally has an arid climate and many hydrologists are predicting an increase in water scarcity over time. This research seeks to understand the implications of this in socio-political terms. The study is cross-disciplinary, examining how policy interventions can be used to solve the problem caused by the interaction between hydrology and demography. The conclusion is that water scarcity is not the actual problem, but is perceived as the problem by policy-makers. Instead, water scarcity is the manifestation of the problem, with root causes being a combination of climate change, population growth and misallocation of water within the economy due to a desire for national self-sufficiency in agriculture. The solution lies in the trade of products with a high water content, also known as 'virtual water'. Research on this specific issue is called for by the White Paper on Water Policy for South Africa. / Political Sciences / M.A. (International Politics)