Understanding how social-ecological changes influence the resilience of dryland agro-silvo-pastoral systems can offer new perspectives on current sustainability challenges. In this study I use mixed methods to explore how resilience thinking can guide development towards sustainable and just future pathways in the Sahelian part of northern Senegal. A combined analysis of regional statistical data and local actors’ perceptions of recent development revealed five key patterns of change: 1) decreased annual precipitation, 2) lack of pastures and environmental degradation, 3) improved rural water access and an opening-up of previously isolated areas, 4) adaptation strategies, and 5) decentralization. Participants’ rankings of context-specific resilience metrics based on the seven principles for building resilience, indicate a low to moderate current resilience of the agro-silvo-pastoral system and a decline in general system resilience over the past decades. The analysis highlights the need for greater recognition of pastoral mobility and groundwater recharge dynamics in natural resource management, along with challenges of inequities and power assymetries among actors, while also pointing to the potential of local initiatives to support development in the Senegalese Sahel. By synthesizing changes and assessing their influence on the resilience of the agro-silvo-pastoral system, the study shows how resilience assessments can be used to understand system dynamics and illustrate development paradoxes in the Senegalese Sahel.