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Magister Artium - MA / The concern that weather variability and climate change has raised nowadays puts every society or community on the alert. This is arguably the most persistent environmental threat to global stability in vulnerable communities in recent times. City dwellers are now experiencing increased variable weather episodes such as frequent flooding, heat waves and drought with increased wind and storm activities. Unfortunately, the aftermath of these weather irregularities are felt most severely by vulnerable urban poor residents with the least mechanisms to cope. This study focused on the residents of Enkanini in Makhaza, an informal settlement in the greater Khayelitsha Township of Cape Town, South Africa. It documented the challenges they encounter with respect to weather, seeking to understand their adaptive strategies. Emphasis was also placed on the vulnerable nature of their dwellings and their ingenuity in coping with the variable weather pattern in Cape Town. Qualitative and quantitative methods were used to analyse field data, using codes derived from themes and SPSS respectively. Ethnographic methodology guided the researcher to participate overtly in the activities of the community over an extended period, watching what happened, listening to what was said and asking questions pertaining to their vulnerability to the vicissitudes of the prevailing weather in the informal settlement. Findings from the study revealed that over 62% of the dwellings do not conform to the City‟s Disaster Risk Management Centre and Fire & Rescue safety regulations and that over 80% of the residents do not adapt very well to weather-related episodes. It also identifies the most challenging weather episodes to be floods during winter and shack fires during summer; amidst other health concerns that occur all year round.

In most of the developing countries, small scale farmers (SSFs) are usually the primary agricultural producers of staple crop. Furthermore, they highly depend on rainfall for their rain-fed agricultural production. SSFs have limited capacity to adapt to extreme climate variability, thus rendering them to be among the most vulnerable to climate change. Some recent studies show that agricultural production and productivity is being negatively impacted by climate change and variability in most parts of Southern Africa. This is likely to continue for decades into the future, unless corrective or adaptation measures are implemented to reduce the impact on agriculture. Conservation Agriculture (CA) is one of the climate change and weather variability adaptation measures being promoted for SSFs in Kalomo District of Zambia. CA is not only being promoted to improve production and productivity for food security for the majority rural population, but also as an adaptation measure for sustainable agricultural production. The present study analysed the CA practices being promoted in Kalomo district of southern Zambia and the associated challenges in the management and implementation, as well as, how best these challenges can be addressed. Semi-structured interviews and literature review were used as methodologies of data collection for the study. The findings of the study indicate that among the three principles of CA, minimum tillage is mostly practiced compared to crop rotation and retention of crop residue. Within minimum tillage, ripping was found to be practiced on a larger scale compared to making basins. The major challenges include planning and human resource development, financial resource and policy constraints and cultural barriers to adoption of CA.

The UK’s decarbonisation strategy to increasingly electrify heating and transport will change the demand requirement on the electricity system. Additionally, under a climate change future, it is projected that the decarbonised grid will need to be able to operate under higher average temperatures in the UK, increasing the need for comfort cooling during summer and leading to additional electricity demand. These new demands will result in greater variation between minimum and peak demand as well as a significant increase in overall demand. Concurrently, supply-side decarbonisation programmes may lead to more intermittent renewables such as wind, PV, tidal and wave, elevating variability in electricity generation. Coupled with the anticipated higher variation in demand this brings on several challenges in operating the electricity grid. In order to characterise these challenges this research develops a bespoke electricity dispatch model which builds on hourly models of demand and generation. The hourly demand profiles are based on a high electrification of heating, transport and cooling coupled with future temperatures premised on the UKCP09 high emission scenario climate projections. The demand profiles show a significant increase in peak demand by 2050 reaching 194 GW, mainly due to summer cooling loads which contribute 70% of the demand. The cumulative CO2 emissions budgets of the GB power sector that are consistent with avoiding global climate change to 2°C are used to develop two low carbon generation scenarios distinguished by the amount of intermittent renewable generation technologies. The dispatch model tests the capability of generation scenarios with the use of hourly generation models in meeting future demand profiles out to 2050.The outputs from dispatch model indicate that there are shortages and excesses of generation relative to demand from 2030 onwards. The variability analysis outlines low and high generation periods from intermittent technologies along with the pace at which intermittent generation increases or decreases within an hour. The characterisation of variability analysis reveals the type of reserve capacity or smart solutions that are required to maintain the security of electricity supply. The solutions that could address the challenges quantified from the model outputs in operating a decarbonised GB electricity grid are explored using expert interviews. The analysis of the stakeholder interviews suggests smart grid solutions that include technologies as well as changes in operational procedures in order to enhance the operational resilience of the grid. Active Network Management through monitoring and control, demand management, storage systems and interconnectors are proposed to address challenges arising from varying demand and generation variability.

Nell'ambito dell'economia dei disastri naturali ho elaborato uno studio macroeconomico e due microeconomici. A livello macro ho elaborato una meta-analisi della letteratura empirica sugli effetti dei disastri naturali in termini di costi diretti e indiretti. Ho analizzato gli effetti di caratteristiche del database,tecniche di stima, fattori di resilienza considerati e publication bias. Studi sui costi diretti che includono paesi Africani hanno 65% maggiore probabilità di riportare un risultato negativo e significativo mentre studi sui costi indiretti sembrano soffrire di publication bias. I lavori microeconometrici si focalizzano su due paesi africani. Nel primo analizzo gli effetti di un aumento della variabilità climatica sul consumo di beni alimentari delle famiglie in Uganda nel periodo 2005/06-2009/10. In media un incremento di 1% delle temperature porterebbe a una diminuzione del consumo di alimenti del 3-5% mentre le famiglie sarebbero in grado di contrastare variazioni delle precipitazioni con varie strategie. Nel secondo, con approccio multi-shock analizzo gli effetti di siccità e incremento dei prezzi di acquisto sullo stato nutrizionale di bambini in famiglie residenti in zone rurali del Senegal nel periodo 2009-2011. Singolarmente entrambi gli eventi sembrano avere effetti negativi sul livello nutrizionale. Tuttavia la concomitanza dei due eventi sembra non avere effetto sul peso dei bambini grazie a un positivo effetto reddito. / In this work I deal with the economics of natural disasters conducting one study at the macroeconomic level and two studies at the microeconomic level. In the first I conduct a meta-analysis of the macro literature on the direct and indirect costs of natural disasters. I investigate the effects of empirical design, estimation technique, resilience factors included and publication bias. I find that direct costs studies have 65% probability to report negative and significant results if they include African countries while indirect costs studies show publication bias. Second, I conduct a microeconometric analysis of the effects of weather variability on households food consumption in Uganda in the period 2005/06-2009/10. I show that on average 1% increase in maximum temperatures would reduce food consumption by 4-5% while precipitation amount and distribution would not affect household food consumption thanks to coping strategies. Finally I consider the effects of droughts and increasing purchasing prices on weight-for-age of children in rural households in Senegal using a multishock approach and a unique dataset (2009-2011). Results of drought(increase in prices) econometric analyis show deterioration in child weight-for-age. However, concomitance of drought and increasing prices would leave child weight-for-age unaffected thanks to positive income effects.