O presente trabalho destina-se a investigação do conceito de tipos de tempo, largamente utilizado na Climatologia Dinâmica, porém sua definição e aplicação ainda constituem obstáculos significativos para a Climatologia. Nesse contexto, a proposta colocada tem como finalidade estudar o conceito de tipos de tempo a partir de uma história das idéias, buscando suas origens e diferentes concepções teóricas e operacionais relacionadas. Destaca-se a preocupação com a delimitação das escalas espaciais e temporais do referido conceito e suas integrações, visando uma compreensão mais adequada deste conceito / This thesis aims to research the concept of \"weather types\", widely used in Dynamic Climatology, however their definition and implementation are still significant obstacles to Climatology.In this context, the proposed project aims to study the concept of \"weather types\" from a history of ideas, seeking their origins and different theoretical concepts and operational related. There is the concern with the delimitation of the spatial and temporal scales of this concept and its integration, aiming at a more adequate understanding of the concept

Made available in DSpace on 2014-06-11T19:30:27Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 0 Previous issue date: 2006-11-06Bitstream added on 2014-06-13T19:40:08Z : No. of bitstreams: 1 barros_jr_dr_rcla.pdf: 2620931 bytes, checksum: 553a51781a828e1f0be6f0edfc071800 (MD5) / Esta tese teve como objetivo investigar a relação entre tipos de tempo e a incidência de doenças respiratórias no Distrito Federal, verificando, ainda, quais as áreas onde a população é mais afetada por tais patologias. A partir de dados obtidos junto ao SUS e a duas unidades de atendimento médico do setor privado foi possível identificar o período referente ao outono e ao inverno como sendo aquele em que a população local mais sofre com complicações das vias aéreas. Posteriormente, com informações numéricas em nível diário dos casos de doenças do trato respiratório e dados meteorológicos obtidos junto ao Instituto Nacional de Meteorologia, foram elaborados gráficos de análise rítmica, que permitiram observar a variação diária do número de internações durante os períodos de outono e inverno dos anos de 2003, 2004 e 2005, verificando, ainda, quais são as condições atmosféricas responsáveis pelo aumento do número de atendimentos por doenças respiratórias, bem como os sistemas que originam tais condições. / The main objective of this work was to investigate the relation between weather types and the incidence of respiratory diseases in the Federal District, verifying, still, which the areas where the population is more affected by such pathologies. From data gotten to the SUS and the two units of medical attendance of the private sector it was possible to identify the referring period to the autumn and to the winter as being that one where the local population more suffers with complications of the aerial ways. Later, with numerical information in daily level of the cases of illnesses of the respiratory treatment and gotten meteorological data in National Institute of Meteorology, they had been elaborated graphical of rhythmic analysis, that they had allowed to observe the daily variation of the number of internments during the periods of autumn and winter of the years 2003, 2004 and 2005, verifying, still, which are the responsible atmospheric conditions for the increase of the number of patients for respiratory diseases, as well as the systems that they originate such conditions.

Resumo: Esta tese teve como objetivo investigar a relação entre tipos de tempo e a incidência de doenças respiratórias no Distrito Federal, verificando, ainda, quais as áreas onde a população é mais afetada por tais patologias. A partir de dados obtidos junto ao SUS e a duas unidades de atendimento médico do setor privado foi possível identificar o período referente ao outono e ao inverno como sendo aquele em que a população local mais sofre com complicações das vias aéreas. Posteriormente, com informações numéricas em nível diário dos casos de doenças do trato respiratório e dados meteorológicos obtidos junto ao Instituto Nacional de Meteorologia, foram elaborados gráficos de análise rítmica, que permitiram observar a variação diária do número de internações durante os períodos de outono e inverno dos anos de 2003, 2004 e 2005, verificando, ainda, quais são as condições atmosféricas responsáveis pelo aumento do número de atendimentos por doenças respiratórias, bem como os sistemas que originam tais condições. / Abstract: The main objective of this work was to investigate the relation between weather types and the incidence of respiratory diseases in the Federal District, verifying, still, which the areas where the population is more affected by such pathologies. From data gotten to the SUS and the two units of medical attendance of the private sector it was possible to identify the referring period to the autumn and to the winter as being that one where the local population more suffers with complications of the aerial ways. Later, with numerical information in daily level of the cases of illnesses of the respiratory treatment and gotten meteorological data in National Institute of Meteorology, they had been elaborated graphical of rhythmic analysis, that they had allowed to observe the daily variation of the number of internments during the periods of autumn and winter of the years 2003, 2004 and 2005, verifying, still, which are the responsible atmospheric conditions for the increase of the number of patients for respiratory diseases, as well as the systems that they originate such conditions. / Orientador: João Afonso Zavattini / Coorientador: Sandra Elisa Contri Pitton / Banca: Antônio Carlos Tavares / Banca: Ercília Torres Steinke / Banca: Francisco Arthur Silva Vecchia / Banca: Magda Adelaide Lombardo / Doutor

Made available in DSpace on 2014-06-11T19:27:49Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 0 Previous issue date: 2009-10-23Bitstream added on 2014-06-13T19:15:22Z : No. of bitstreams: 1 pascoalino_a_me_.pdf: 1979849 bytes, checksum: 45a59160b2da144e86f7af0a757fc7b2 (MD5) / Caixa Economica Federal / O estudo objetivou verificar a percepção dos tipos de tempo, do ritmo climático e das alterações climáticas, sistematizando-se através de duas abordagens – uma climatológica e outra da percepção. Primeiramente, avaliou-se os tipos de tempo sucedidos no município de Rio Claro – SP, em um mês de inverno e um de verão, utilizando-se da técnica de análise rítmica. Posteriormente, no intuito de apreender a percepção climática dos munícipes aplicouse oitenta formulários distribuídos de forma equivalente nas áreas urbana e rural. A coleta de dados ocorreu durante os meses de julho/agosto de 2008 e janeiro de 2009. Verificou-se a percepção dos aspectos de sazonalidade e da sucessão dos tipos de tempo, bem como a percepção das influências atmosféricas no cotidiano e tempo-sensitividade individuais, identificando-se ainda a influência dos meios de comunicação no processo perceptivo. No que se refere às alterações climáticas o imaginário social apresentou-se de forma uniformizada e seguiu a convicção de que estas já estão ocorrendo, que alcançam uma escala espacial global e têm como repercussão o aumento de eventos extremos e catastróficos. Mesmo concebendose que as causas antropogênicas são prevalecentes no processo parcela significativa isentou-se de responsabilidade. / The study aimed at evaluating the perception of weather types, of climatic rhythm and of the climate changes by means of two approaches – a climatological and other of the perception. Firstly, were assessed the weather types successful in Rio Claro county – SP, in one month of winter and one of summer, using the technique of rhythmic analysis. In order to verify the climate perception of residents applied eighty questionnaires distributed in a manner equivalent in the urban and rural areas. Data collection occurred during the months of july / august, 2008 and january, 2009. There was the perception of seasonal aspects and about the succession of weather types, the perception of the weather types influences in the life and health conditions of the individuals, and the media influences in the perceptual process. With regard to climate change, the social image presented in a standardized and followed the conviction that they are already taking place, reaching a global spatial scale and have the effect in the increase of extreme events and catastrophic. Even conceiving that anthropogenic causes are prevalent in significant portion but was remained free of responsibility.

Orientador: Sandra Elisa Contri Pitton / Banca: Antonio Carlos Tavares / Banca: Ary Menardi Júnior / Resumo: O estudo objetivou verificar a percepção dos tipos de tempo, do ritmo climático e das alterações climáticas, sistematizando-se através de duas abordagens - uma climatológica e outra da percepção. Primeiramente, avaliou-se os tipos de tempo sucedidos no município de Rio Claro - SP, em um mês de inverno e um de verão, utilizando-se da técnica de análise rítmica. Posteriormente, no intuito de apreender a percepção climática dos munícipes aplicouse oitenta formulários distribuídos de forma equivalente nas áreas urbana e rural. A coleta de dados ocorreu durante os meses de julho/agosto de 2008 e janeiro de 2009. Verificou-se a percepção dos aspectos de sazonalidade e da sucessão dos tipos de tempo, bem como a percepção das influências atmosféricas no cotidiano e tempo-sensitividade individuais, identificando-se ainda a influência dos meios de comunicação no processo perceptivo. No que se refere às alterações climáticas o imaginário social apresentou-se de forma uniformizada e seguiu a convicção de que estas já estão ocorrendo, que alcançam uma escala espacial global e têm como repercussão o aumento de eventos extremos e catastróficos. Mesmo concebendose que as causas antropogênicas são prevalecentes no processo parcela significativa isentou-se de responsabilidade. / Abstract: The study aimed at evaluating the perception of weather types, of climatic rhythm and of the climate changes by means of two approaches - a climatological and other of the perception. Firstly, were assessed the weather types successful in Rio Claro county - SP, in one month of winter and one of summer, using the technique of rhythmic analysis. In order to verify the climate perception of residents applied eighty questionnaires distributed in a manner equivalent in the urban and rural areas. Data collection occurred during the months of july / august, 2008 and january, 2009. There was the perception of seasonal aspects and about the succession of weather types, the perception of the weather types influences in the life and health conditions of the individuals, and the media influences in the perceptual process. With regard to climate change, the social image presented in a standardized and followed the conviction that they are already taking place, reaching a global spatial scale and have the effect in the increase of extreme events and catastrophic. Even conceiving that anthropogenic causes are prevalent in significant portion but was remained free of responsibility. / Mestre

O presente trabalho destina-se a investigação do conceito de tipos de tempo, largamente utilizado na Climatologia Dinâmica, porém sua definição e aplicação ainda constituem obstáculos significativos para a Climatologia. Nesse contexto, a proposta colocada tem como finalidade estudar o conceito de tipos de tempo a partir de uma história das idéias, buscando suas origens e diferentes concepções teóricas e operacionais relacionadas. Destaca-se a preocupação com a delimitação das escalas espaciais e temporais do referido conceito e suas integrações, visando uma compreensão mais adequada deste conceito / This thesis aims to research the concept of \"weather types\", widely used in Dynamic Climatology, however their definition and implementation are still significant obstacles to Climatology.In this context, the proposed project aims to study the concept of \"weather types\" from a history of ideas, seeking their origins and different theoretical concepts and operational related. There is the concern with the delimitation of the spatial and temporal scales of this concept and its integration, aiming at a more adequate understanding of the concept

of the doctoral dissertation Extreme precipitation is related to flooding which is one of the most frequent natural hazards in Central Europe. Detailed understanding of extreme precipitation is the precondition for an efficient risk management and more precise projections of precipitation, which include uncertainties, especially at regional scale. The thesis focuses on extreme precipitation in the Ore Mountains (OM) and the Vosges Mountains (VG); two low mountain ranges in Central Europe experiencing orographic effect on precipitation. Based on state of the art about precipitation in OM and VG, a currently missing analysis of the temporal distribution of precipitation in VG was needed prior to the analysis of extremes. The original dataset of daily precipitation totals from 14 weather stations used in the initial study was extended to 168 stations covering a broader area of VG. The study of temporal distribution of precipitation during 1960-2013 led to a classification of stations: (i) mountainous stations with winter maxima and highest mean annual totals due to orographic enhancement of precipitation, (ii) stations on leeward slopes with two maxima (summer and winter), (iii) lee side stations with summer maxima and lowest mean annual totals due to rain shadow and more continental character, and...

Sur le bassin méditerranéen, les projections climatiques pour la fin du siècle indiquent un assèchement des étés accompagné d'une intensification des précipitations.Dans ce contexte, la caractérisation de la pluviométrie de la région est nécessaire pour appréhender son évolution future.Les modèles climatiques régionaux (RCM) sont des outils essentiels pour la compréhension du climat régional et pour la projection de son évolution.L'objectif de cette thèse est alors de caractériser et d'évaluer la pluie simulée par les RCM dans le sud-est de la France, typique des régions méditerranéennes côtières.La description de la pluie observée aux mêmes échelles que les RCM en est un préalable.La pluie observée et simulée est caractérisée en termes de valeurs et de structure spatiale et temporelle de l'occurrence et de l'intensité.Les liens entre ces caractéristiques et les processus physiques sous-jacents sont explorés grâce à une analyse par type de temps.Dans les modèles, le volume annuel total d'eau apporté par la pluie sur l'ensemble de la région d'étude est proche des valeurs observées.Ce volume n'est toutefois pas réparti également dans le temps et dans l'espace dans les observations et dans les simulations.Parmi les multiples caractéristiques de la pluie observée et simulée, cette étude souligne l'influence des forçages du relief et des processus liés au cycle diurne de l'énergie solaire à la fois sur le déclenchement et sur l'intensité des précipitations.Ainsi, la pluie se produit préférentiellement en fin d'après-midi, en lien avec le chauffage diurne de la surface.Cependant, dans les modèles, le maximum d'occurrence est plus précoce que dans les observations, ce qui suggère une réponse trop rapide du schéma de convection au cycle diurne des flux de surface, liée à l'absence de la phase de transition entre la convection peu profonde et la convection profonde dans la majorité des schémas.Par ailleurs, au sein du domaine d'étude, l'influence du relief sur les caractéristiques de la pluie est plus marquée pour les Cévennes que pour les Préalpes.Les RCM reproduisent cette influence du relief sur les caractéristiques de pluie.Toutefois, les contrastes entre plaines et reliefs sont plus accentués dans les modèles que dans les observations, notamment lorsque le forçage de grande échelle est faible et la convection dominante dans la région d'étude.L'accentuation du contraste entre plaine et montagne dans les modèles semble donc provenir d'une trop grande sensibilité des schémas de convection au relief qui favorise la convergence et l'instabilité de la masse d'air. / Climate projections for the end of the century indicate drier summers and more intense precipitation in the Mediterranean.In this respect, the characterization of rainfall in the region is necessary to understand its future changes.Regional climate models (RCM) are essential tools to understand the regional climate and to project its future evolution.This thesis aims at characterizing and evaluating rainfall simulated by RCM in Southeast France, typical of the mediterranean coastal regions.The description of observed rainfall at the same scales as RCM is a prerequisite.Observed and simulated rainfall is described in terms of values and spatial and temporal structure of occurrence and intensity.Weather types are used to explore the relation between rainfall features and the underlying physical processes.In the RCM, the annual total volume of water precipitated over the study region is closed to the observed values.However, this total volume is not distributed the same in space and time in the RCM simulations and in the observations.Among the multiple facets of the rainfall climatology, this study highlights the influence of the relief and of the solar cycle both in the triggering and in the intensity of rain.Rain appears to occur preferentially in the late afternoon, in connection with the daytime heating of the surface.However, the maximum of rain occurrence simulated by the RCM is earlier than in the observations, suggesting a too quick response of the convection scheme to the diurnal cycle of surface fluxes, in relation to the absence of transition between shallow and deep convection in most schemes.Besides, within the study region, the orographic forcing appears to be quite different for the two ranges of the domain and is much more pronounced over the Cévennes.The RCM reproduce the influence of the topography on rainfall features.Yet, the contrast between plains and mountains is more pronounced in the models than in the observations, especially when the large-scale forcing is weak and the convection is prevailing in the study area.The contrast accentuation between plain and relief in the models seems to be due to a too high sensitivity of the convection schemes to the air mass convergence and instability favored by the relief.

L’objectif principal de cette thèse est de s’intéresser aux fortes pluies dans les Monts Métallifères (OM) et les Vosges (VG) en Europe centrale. La méthode Weather Extremity Index a été appliquée sur les données de précipitation journalière de 167 stations dans les OM et 168 stations dans les VG et a permis de sélectionner les 54 plus forts évenements des précipitations extrêmes (EPEs) dans OM et VG. Plusieurs aspects des EPEs ont été examinés. Les résultats ont montré que les EPEs sont le plus souvent de courte durée (1—2 jours) dans les deux régions. Ils affectent une plus grande partie des OM que des VG. Les EPEs dans les VG apparaissent majoritairement lors de la situation synoptique d’un front froid ondulant ; dans les OM lors des cyclones générés par une goutte d’air froid isolé et dont le trajet est souvent qualifié de « Vb » (c.a.d. allant de la Méditerranée vers le nord-est). Toutefois deux des dix plus forts EPEs des VG sont apparus lors de situations de cyclones Vb. / The thesis focuses on extreme precipitation in the Ore Mountains (OM) and the Vosges Mountains (VG) in Central Europe. The Weather Extremity Index (WEI) was employed on daily precipitation totals from 167 stations in OM and 168 stations in VG. The WEI enabled to select the 54 strongest extreme precipitation events (EPEs) in OM and VG. Many characteristics of the EPEs were investigated in the thesis. The results showed that the EPEs lasted mostly 1—2 days in both regions, whereas affected a larger part of OM as compared to VG. Stationary fronts occurred most frequently during EPEs in VG, while lows in OM. Lows in OM during EPEs often originated from cold air cut-off and most of them had Vb track from Mediterranean towards the northeast. Even during two of the ten strongest EPEs in VG, the extreme precipitation was related to Vb lows, this time strongly deflected westwards.

La combustion de la biomasse, en particulier le chauffage au bois résidentiel, constitue une source d’émissions fortement contributrice aux concentrations de PM10 en hiver, de façon globale, en Europe. Afin de réduire les émissions de cette source, un programme de large envergure de renouvellement d’appareils de chauffage au bois non-performant, le Fonds Air Bois a été lancé depuis 2013 dans la vallée de l’Arve. Cette action étant amenée à se multiplier en France, l’évaluation de son effet sur les concentrations atmosphériques constitue un enjeu pour les futures politiques de gestion de la qualité de l’air. Le programme PRIMEQUAL DECOMBIO (2013-2018) a été proposé afin de mettre en place des méthodologies permettant d’évaluer l’impact de cette opération sur les concentrations de PM10 à partir de mesures de terrains. Ce programme DECOMBIO, qui a servi de cadre à ce travail de thèse, s’est appuyé sur la confrontation durant 4 hivers des mesures en continu des PM10 issus de la combustion de la biomasse (noté PM10wb), des conditions météorologiques, et des variations d’émissions liées au renouvellement des appareils. Pour répondre à cet enjeu, les travaux de cette thèse ont eu pour objectif de développer des méthodes permettant de prendre en compte l’influence des conditions atmosphériques sur les concentrations hivernales de PM10 et d’évaluer les paramètres et facteurs d’incertitudes permettant de comparer les variations estimées d’émissions de PM10wb avec celles des concentrations mesurées de PM10wb au cours des 4 hivers.Ces travaux se sont appuyés sur d’importantes bases de données de mesures chimiques et météorologiques constitués durant 4 hivers (13-14 à 16-17) au niveau de 3 sites dans la vallée de l’Arve. Par ailleurs, les données techniques issues des dossiers de renouvellements des appareils pour bénéficier de l’aide financière du Fonds Air Bois nous ont été communiquées, nous permettant de spatialiser et temporaliser les réductions des émissions de PM10wb estimées provenant de ces remplacements d’appareils. L’état de la stabilité thermique de l’atmosphère, paramètre essentiel pour déterminer les épisodes d’inversions thermiques, a été suivi en continu grâce à un système peu onéreux de capteurs de température sous abris installés le long des pentes. Ces mesures ont permis de montrer que les conditions météorologiques locales dans ces vallées encaissées sont le facteur premier conditionnant les concentrations atmosphériques. Une classification automatique des conditions atmosphériques a été établie, permettant de s’affranchir de cette variabilité et de comparer les concentrations pour des conditions atmosphériques similaires entre les différents hivers. L’innovation de cette approche repose principalement sur la prise en compte du degré d’influence de variables météorologiques et de paramètres liés à l’intensité des émissions. Une diminution graduelle des concentrations de PM10wb au cours des hivers a ainsi pu être constatée au niveau des 3 sites pour certaines classes de conditions atmosphériques, résultat consolidé par la diminution concomitante des traceurs de la combustion de la biomasse à la masse des PM10. Afin de préciser ces résultats, nous nous sommes intéressés à estimer la réduction des émissions de PM10 des remplacements d’appareils au niveau des sites de mesures et leurs incertitudes.Au terme de ce travail et du programme DECOMBIO, nous avons été à même de développer et de valider plusieurs outils méthodologiques applicables dans l’évaluation de futurs fonds air bois (utilisation de capteurs le long des pentes, classification météorologique adaptée à la qualité de l’air, estimation des incertitudes sur les émissions de parc de dispositifs de chauffage au bois). Ces bases solides nous ont permis de mieux comprendre les mesures réalisées sur les PM atmosphériques, et leurs liens avec les estimations des émissions. / Biomass burning, particularly residential wood burning, is a source of atmospheric particles that contributes significantly to winter PM10 levels globally in Europe. In order to reduce emissions from this source, a large-scale program for the renewal of non-efficient wood-burning appliances, the “Fonds Air Bois” has been launched since 2013 in the Arve Valley. The assessment of its impact on atmospheric concentrations is an issue for future air quality management policies. The research DECOMBIO program (2013-2018) has been proposed to evaluate the impact of this operation on PM10 concentrations from measurements. This DECOMBIO program, which includes these thesis works, was based on the confrontation during 4 winters of continuous measurements of PM10 resulting from biomass burning (noted PM10wb), weather conditions, and emissions variations related to appliances renewal. To answer this challenge, the aim of this thesis was to develop methods to take into account the influence of atmospheric conditions on winter PM10 concentrations and to evaluate the parameters and uncertainties that make it possible to compare the estimated PM10wb emission variations with those of the measured PM10wb concentrations during the 4 winters.This work was based on large datasets of chemical and meteorological measurements made during 4 winters (13-14 to 16-17) at 3 sites in the Arve Valley. In addition, the technical data from wood appliances renewal files was provided to us, allowing us to spatially and temporally estimated reductions of PM10wb emissions from these appliances replacements. The state of atmospheric stability, an essential parameter for determining episodes of temperature inversions, has been continuously monitored thanks to an inexpensive system of sheltered temperature sensors installed along the slopes. These measurements have shown that local weather conditions in these valleys are the primary factor conditioning atmospheric concentrations. An automatic weather types classification has been established, making it possible to overcome this variability and to compare the concentrations for similar atmospheric conditions between the different winters. The innovation of this approach is mainly based on taking into account the degree of influence of meteorological variables and parameters related to the intensity of emissions. A gradual decrease of PM10wb concentrations during winters was thus observed at the 3 sites for certain weather types, a result consolidated by the concomitant decrease in tracer biomass combustion at the mass of PM10. To clarify these results, we were interested in estimating the reduction of PM10 emissions from device replacements at measurement sites and their uncertainties.At the end of this work and of the DECOMBIO program, we have been able to develop and validate several methodological tools applicable in the evaluation of future “fonds air bois” (use of sensors along the slopes, meteorological classification adapted to the quality of the air, estimation of uncertainties on wood appliances renewable emissions). This solid foundation has allowed us to better understand the measurements made on atmospheric PM, and their relationship to emission estimates.